Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, September 24th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-09-25 02:24:22

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Reyes	STL	CHC	35	1.03	3.91	1.09		28.6%	12.9%	0.26	1.00
Hammel	CHC	STL	328	3.68	3.84	1.18	47.4%	22.6%	6.7%	1.26	1.07
Sabathia	NYY	TOR	332.2	4.46	4.22	1.39	25.0%	19.4%	7.6%	1.33	1.44
Stroman	TOR	NYY	217	4.15	3.52	1.26	66.7%	19.5%	6.1%	0.95	3.07
Darvish	TEX	OAK	87.1	3.81	3.29	1.20	55.6%	30.2%	7.9%	1.24	1.02
Alcantara	OAK	TEX	14.1	5.65	5.22	1.33		11.1%	3.2%	1.88	0.78
Porcello	BOS	TBR	373.2	3.95	3.77	1.17	55.6%	20.5%	4.4%	1.11	1.30
Andriese	TBR	BOS	182	4.30	3.95	1.26		19.3%	5.4%	1.14	1.26
Miley	BAL	ARI	345	4.98	4.32	1.40	33.3%	17.8%	7.6%	1.07	1.58
Ross	WAS	PIT	175	3.55	3.90	1.21		21.0%	6.5%	0.77	1.47
Nova	PIT	WAS	246.2	4.52	4.09	1.31	25.0%	17.4%	5.8%	1.31	1.74
Ventura	KCR	DET	330.1	4.25	4.25	1.36	44.4%	19.8%	9.1%	0.95	1.77
Norris	DET	KCR	117	3.69	4.22	1.32		20.4%	7.4%	1.31	0.97
Blair	ATL	MIA	54.2	8.23	5.82	1.77		12.4%	11.2%	1.81	1.08
Chen	MIA	ATL	301.1	3.94	4.06	1.25	31.6%	19.2%	5.1%	1.43	1.02
Straily	CIN	MIL	195.1	3.96	4.70	1.21	14.3%	20.1%	9.5%	1.38	0.69
Jungmann	MIL	CIN	141	4.53	4.39	1.37		20.0%	9.9%	0.89	1.37
Quintana	CWS	CLE	402.1	3.31	3.80	1.21	50.0%	21.1%	5.4%	0.83	1.29
Anderson	CLE	CWS	149	4.29	4.53	1.29		15.0%	6.0%	1.27	1.31
Chacin	LAA	HOU	152.2	5.07	4.41	1.46	18.2%	18.6%	8.9%	1.00	1.63
Peacock	HOU	LAA	21.2	3.32	4.60	1.15	28.6%	19.1%	9.0%	1.25	0.76
Asher	PHI	NYM	45.2	6.70	5.34	1.49		11.8%	6.9%	1.58	0.79
Gilmartin	NYM	PHI	72.1	3.24	3.64	1.23		21.1%	7.4%	0.62	1.24
Miranda	SEA	MIN	48.2	3.88	4.79	1.17		19.4%	8.7%	1.66	0.63
Duffey	MIN	SEA	182	5.34	3.99	1.45		19.9%	6.4%	1.34	1.63
Bumgarner	SFG	SDP	424.2	2.80	3.19	1.03	47.6%	27.3%	5.3%	0.93	1.07
Cosart	SDP	SFG	125.2	5.01	4.98	1.52	31.6%	15.3%	12.6%	1.00	2.52
Bettis	COL	LAD	289.2	4.57	4.22	1.39		18.1%	7.5%	0.99	1.84
Kershaw	LAD	COL	361.2	2.02	2.24	0.83	66.7%	33.5%	3.7%	0.55	1.77

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. COL) – The Dodgers mysteriously kept Kershaw at a low pitch count around 65 throws in each of his first two games back after missing three months with back ailments, though they did extend his leash out to 88 pitches in his last start and should be expected to come close to the century mark in tonight’s outing. Kershaw has been vintage himself since coming off the disabled list, with the per-game workloads being his greatest obstacle, as Kersh has a 1.29 ERA and 17:1 K:BB in 14.0 innings through his first last three starts. The Rockies have a few of their major bats that get marginalized by average left-handers, let alone the best pitcher on the planet, as players such as Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon have massive platoon splits that when put together with home/road discrepancies can reduce the Colorado offense to a minor distraction rather than a lineup to be appropriately feared. I expect that tonight we’ll be reintroduced to Clayton Kershaw: DFS anchor.

Madison Bumgarner SF (at SD) – Bumgarner got back to his dominant ways in his last turn, tossing seven scoreless innings of one-hit baseball with 10 strikeouts and zero walks against the Dodgers, breaking a string of six consecutive starts in which Bummer had given up multiple runs. One need look no further than the previous start, in which Bumgarner faced these Padres at his home of ATT Park, and though the southpaw still posted a quality start with three earnies allowed over 6.2 frames, the nine baserunners and mere count of five strikeouts contributed to a subpar fantasy statline. His K:BB in the month of August was a solid-yet-unspectacular 37:13 in 37.0 innings, but the left-hander has posted stronger strike zone numbers since the calendar flipped to September, with a total of 34 strikeouts and just three walks allowed in 25.2 innings pitched.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Yu Darvish TEX (at OAK) – Darvish is coming off what was by far his worst outing of the season, coughing up seven runs (all earned) on seven hits and four walks in 5.0 innings at home against these A’s. The free passes were especially damning, given that the 20146 version of the A’s is a low-walk offense and that Darvish had greatly quieted the walks – an ongoing issue for the right-hander – over the summer. This was the second time in three starts that Darvish had given up at least five runs to a division rival without finishing more than five frames, pushing his ERA on the season to 3.81 just a month after it sat more than a full run lower, but over his last five turns, Darvish has relinquished runs at the rate of a 6.04 ERA with 35 strikeouts and 15 walks, the latter of which is much too high of a total over a 28.1-inning sample. He could very well right the ship, letting his upside shine through in a dominant start over a low-end offense, but the biggest obstacle standing in Darvish’s way of achieving a gaudy statline is his own pitch command.

Rick Porcello BOS (at TB) – Porcello tossed a two-run, four-hit complete game against the heavy-hitting Orioles in his last turn, extending his personal streak to 11 consecutive quality starts, each of which went at least 7.0 innings. Such longevity is nearly extinct in this day and age, but is ability to stay on the bump until deep into the ballgame adds to his fantasy line by tacking on innings and strikeouts to expected counting stats, while giving the robust offense of the Red Sox some extra time to build a lead so that Porcello can leave with a big W attached to his won-loss record, which now stands at 21-4. The light offense of the Rays should provide a welcome respite after Porcello went toe-to-toe with some of the more frightening offenses of the AL East (his teammates not included), but he limited the O’s and Blue Jays to a 1.88 ERA with an excellent 20:1 K:BB in 24.0 innings over that stretch.

Jose Quintana CHW (at CLE) – Quintana has had a bumpy ride through September. It started with a seven-run start against the Twins and extended to his last turn, with six runs scoring on 10 hits and three walks in the southpaw’s 4.0 innings of work. The trio of free passes were the most that Quintana had allowed in a ballgame since mid-July and the sudden barrage of runs is a stark contrast to the last two months of summer, in which Quintana had a July-August ERA of 2.13 with a 54:14 K:BB in 67.2 innings pitched, but the struggles that he endured in June – a 5.51 ERA and 29:11 K:BB in 32.2 innings – have returned for the stretch run. He still has the baseline talent to earn the Raise designation, but the fact that he’s facing the AL’s second-ranked offense in terms of run-scoring is another point for the con side of the ledger in deciding whether to roster Quintana for today.

Robbie Ray ARI (at BAL) – The massive strikeout totals that have driven Ray’s value over the second half of the season have been in full force over his last few starts, with 27 total strikeouts in his last 16.2 innings covering three games, but his run prevention in the month of September leaves something to be desired. Even if we ignore his six-run start in Colorado at the beginning of the month, Ray has posted a 6.48 ERA in his other three starts of September, as eight of the 13 hits that he has allowed over that stretch have been for extra bases. Susceptibility to deep fly balls is a dangerous trait to take into Baltimore, where the birds specialize in big swings with all-or-nothing results, and the best buffer that separates Ray from disaster is his left-handedness against a lineup who suffers greatly when on the short side of the platoon.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Reyes	0.264	0.66	0.208	1.27	0.248	0.739	0.235	2.77	0.164	0.03	28.6%
Hammel	0.324	3.42	0.297	3.86	0.258	0.755	0.277	4.04	0.236	88.47	22.6%
Sabathia	0.269	3.80	0.345	4.64	0.266	0.790	0.306	4.50	0.267	95.04	19.4%
Stroman	0.309	4.46	0.308	3.79	0.250	0.733	0.304	3.72	0.259	96.44	19.5%
Darvish	0.282	3.83	0.305	3.80	0.250	0.707	0.300	3.48	0.226	92.20	30.2%
Alcantara					0.260	0.749	0.298	6.14	0.298	0.00	11.1%
Porcello	0.304	3.71	0.308	4.24	0.245	0.721	0.297	3.76	0.254	100.79	20.5%
Andriese	0.314	4.27	0.306	4.33	0.275	0.780	0.302	3.89	0.263	55.87	19.3%
Ray	0.300	3.73	0.330	4.33	0.237	0.676	0.334	3.51	0.256	99.40	25.7%
Miley	0.298	3.94	0.346	5.30	0.270	0.784	0.314	4.21	0.274	0.00	17.8%
Ross	0.355	3.66	0.233	3.47	0.259	0.728	0.294	3.43	0.243	82.06	21.0%
Nova	0.372	4.87	0.305	4.25	0.251	0.729	0.297	4.46	0.268	79.00	17.4%
Ventura	0.323	5.12	0.308	3.42	0.267	0.746	0.296	4.14	0.25	94.84	19.8%
Norris	0.357	4.76	0.314	3.35	0.273	0.740	0.292	4.28	0.253	80.44	20.4%
Blair	0.439	6.59	0.357	9.88	0.261	0.700	0.315	6.45	0.304	0.00	12.4%
Chen	0.271	2.73	0.345	4.28	0.240	0.653	0.294	4.31	0.263	94.40	19.2%
Straily	0.302	4.19	0.313	3.76	0.250	0.714	0.242	4.81	0.219	87.97	20.1%
Jungmann	0.331	4.02	0.329	4.97	0.253	0.718	0.298	4.22	0.249	91.63	20.0%
Quintana	0.279	3.39	0.312	3.29	0.268	0.744	0.311	3.35	0.257	103.98	21.1%
Anderson	0.346	5.37	0.300	3.32	0.253	0.706	0.287	4.51	0.267	69.53	15.0%
Chacin	0.355	5.85	0.304	4.31	0.249	0.746	0.314	4.23	0.269	0.00	18.6%
Peacock	0.369	4.35	0.250	2.38	0.256	0.720	0.233	4.62	0.213	42.25	19.1%
Asher	0.409	8.02	0.328	5.55	0.242	0.712	0.295	5.41	0.287	0.00	11.8%
Gilmartin	0.295	2.16	0.281	4.15	0.251	0.674	0.301	3.29	0.245	18.16	21.1%
Miranda			0.293	3.83	0.259	0.744	0.235	5.03	0.223	77.80	19.4%
Duffey	0.309	3.57	0.391	7.09	0.251	0.740	0.335	4.26	0.287	0.00	19.9%
Bumgarner	0.244	2.87	0.274	2.78	0.244	0.700	0.277	3.03	0.216	0.00	27.3%
Cosart	0.310	4.74	0.349	5.29	0.262	0.734	0.279	4.97	0.251	0.00	15.3%
Bettis	0.311	4.03	0.350	5.12	0.253	0.748	0.308	4.08	0.267	94.64	18.1%
Kershaw	0.208	1.85	0.227	2.07	0.261	0.725	0.274	1.89	0.19	0.01	33.5%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Ivan Nova PIT (vs. WAS) – Nova is coming off his worst start as a member of the Pirates, with five runs (four earned) given up on 10 hits in just 3.0 innings against the Reds, a team that he had defeated with a one-run complete game just two starts prior. It was a shame, given that his previous turn was his best as a Pirate from a purely fantasy perspective, as a season-high 11 strikeouts – his previous single-game high with the Pirates was six Ks, and he never managed more than eight strikeouts in a game this season for the Yankees – helping him to an impressive 29.9 points on DraftKings. His score went into the negatives in his last turn, and though Nova is still blazing trails with his 45:3 K:BB in nine starts (55.1 innings) for the Pirates, there is at least some trepidation as he prepares to face the Nats.

Marcus Stroman TOR (vs. NYY) – The strikeout-heavy version of Stroman that we saw in July and especially August has seemingly gone back into hiding, as the right-hander has managed more than five strikeouts in just one of his past five starts, a stretch that includes a modest total of 23 strikeouts in 29.0 innings pitched. He has fired quality starts in three of his past four games, but Stroman has surrendered multiple runs in each turn and has not thrown a pitch in the seventh inning of a ballgame since August 21st.

Alex Reyes STL (at CHC) – Reyes has been a revelation for the Cardinals since his call-up, excelling both in the rotation and out of the bullpen to combine for a 1.03 ERA in his first 35.0 innings at the highest level. The Cardinals didn’t waste much time in stretch Reyes out to be a starter, letting him go 89 pitches in his first start despite his having spent two weeks in the bullpen, but the team is still being cautious with their prized young pitching prospect, keeping him at or under 85 pitches in each of his last three starts. He only needed 84 throws to complete seven scoreless innings against the Giants in his last turn, and though he was far less efficient against the Cubs in the prior start – 85 pitches only lasted 4.1 innings thanks to six walks allowed – he still kept the scoreboard clear and proved that he can hang with the Cubs’ high-powered offense, even if for a day.

Daniel Norris DET (vs. KC)

Jason Hammel CHC (vs. STL)

Dan Straily CIN (at MIL)

Joe Ross WAS (at PIT) – Ross has Raise-worthy talent yet Call-worthy performance during his last month before hitting the disabled list, and though he managed five strikeouts in 3.0 innings of his first start back, the six hits allowed are a cause for concern with a pitcher who had surrendered 20 hits in his last 11.1 innings before hitting the DL. The Nats gave Ross the hook after 51 pitches in his last start, and though the team is certainly trying to get him extended to a full starter’s workload in time for the playoffs, expect them to ramp him up incrementally, likely capping the right-hander around 80 pitches in tonight’s contest.

Yordano Ventura KC (at DET)

CC Sabathia NYY (at TOR)

Brad Peacock HOU (vs, LAA)

Wei-Yin Chen MIA (vs. ATL)

Alec Asher PHI (at NYM)

Ariel Miranda SEA (at MIN)

Chad Bettis COL (at LAD)

Raul Alcantara OAK (vs. TEX)

Matt Andriese TB (vs. BOS)

Sean Gilmartin NYM (vs. PHI)

Jarred Cosart SD (vs. SF)