Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, September 3rd

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-09-04 01:54:57

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Bumgarner	SFG	CHC	406	2.73	3.20	1.02	47.6%	27.2%	5.4%	0.93	1.07
Arrieta	CHC	SFG	397	2.22	3.26	0.94	50.0%	25.8%	7.3%	0.52	2.19
Musgrove	HOU	TEX	33	4.36	3.54	1.21		23.5%	4.4%	1.36	1.18
Holland	TEX	HOU	143.1	4.77	4.81	1.31		15.6%	7.1%	1.32	0.99
Garcia	STL	CIN	283	3.53	3.71	1.20	28.6%	19.3%	6.7%	0.83	2.51
Straily	CIN	STL	170.2	4.06	4.63	1.19	14.3%	19.8%	8.7%	1.37	0.74
Estrada	TOR	TBR	325.1	3.24	4.48	1.06	27.8%	20.0%	8.0%	1.24	0.67
Snell	TBR	TOR	68.1	3.56	4.68	1.65		23.2%	12.9%	0.53	1.17
Velasquez	PHI	ATL	179.2	4.26	3.69	1.34		26.7%	8.7%	1.20	0.81
Nelson	MIL	PIT	329	4.27	4.46	1.39		18.5%	9.4%	1.01	1.70
Nova	PIT	MIL	222.2	4.69	4.21	1.32	25.0%	16.8%	6.2%	1.41	1.71
Sabathia	NYY	BAL	311.1	4.54	4.21	1.39	25.0%	19.4%	7.7%	1.27	1.44
Gausman	BAL	NYY	252.1	3.96	3.74	1.27	37.5%	22.9%	6.3%	1.43	1.19
Shields	CWS	MIN	351.1	4.74	4.34	1.45	42.9%	20.8%	9.4%	1.67	1.21
Santiago	MIN	CWS	326.2	4.19	4.68	1.32	16.7%	20.1%	9.6%	1.54	0.64
Fernandez	MIA	CLE	219.1	2.83	2.76	1.13	75.0%	33.5%	7.0%	0.62	1.36
Bauer	CLE	MIA	328	4.17	4.25	1.30	38.5%	21.9%	9.8%	1.04	1.21
Roark	WAS	NYM	286.1	3.46	4.23	1.22	52.6%	17.7%	6.9%	0.97	1.58
Gsellman	NYM	WAS
Fulmer	DET	KCR	130.2	2.69	4.00	1.06		20.6%	6.5%	0.90	1.61
Ventura	KCR	DET	313	4.20	4.14	1.32	44.4%	20.3%	8.8%	1.01	1.77
Shipley	ARI	COL	41.2	4.75	5.61	1.42		13.0%	10.2%	1.73	1.04
Chatwood	COL	ARI	127.1	3.75	4.79	1.39	25.0%	16.2%	10.7%	0.71	2.26
Porcello	BOS	OAK	351.2	4.07	3.76	1.20	55.6%	20.6%	4.5%	1.15	1.33
Neal	OAK	BOS	45.1	4.96	4.31	1.21		9.1%	1.1%	1.59	1.93
Skaggs	LAA	SEA	36	4.75	4.44	1.50	37.5%	21.9%	10.0%	0.75	1.16
Walker	SEA	LAA	272.2	4.42	3.85	1.19		21.5%	5.6%	1.49	1.01
Perdomo	SDP	LAD	115.2	5.84	4.14	1.70		16.1%	8.0%	1.17	2.76
Hill	LAD	SDP	111	1.95	3.20	0.96		29.3%	7.5%	0.32	1.42

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jose Fernandez MIA (at CLE) – If you want to nitpick, Fern has only scored more than 20 points (DraftKings) in one of his last six starts (he scored 32.95 in that one), and the recent lack of dominance has made him not worth the price of admission for over a month. That said, he has still scored 16.9 or more points in four of his last five games, as his recent history has been more about the floor than the ceiling. He also has a historical strikeout rate and the rare capacity to challenge a 15-K outing, and though he hasn’t spiked a big K count in seven starts, one gets the feeling that it could happen at any time for the pitcher who has struck out 11 or more batters in seven of his 25 starts thus far this season.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Rick Porcello BOS (at OAK) – I think it’s safe to say that Porcello is pitching the best baseball of his career right now. The end result often isn’t flashy, including three runs allowed in each of his last two starts and in three of his last six, but the right-hander has spun seven consecutive quality starts, each of which went at least 7.0 innings and earned Porcello’s owners more than 20 points apiece on DraftKings. Lower the threshold to 6.0 innings, and Porcello’s streak goes back a dozen turns, with quality starts in 11 of those 12 and falling one earned run shy in the other. He has even stepped up the strikeouts lately, punching out seven or eight batters in each of his last three games, and over his last 11 turns Porcello’s K:BB is an astounding 63:7 in 79,2 frames.

Rich Hill LAD (vs. SD) – Hill went more than six weeks between starts due to a lingering blister, and between that time he was traded from Oakland to the Dodgers, so his new club was cautious with Hill’s workload in his first game back. The Dodgers limited him to 81 pitches, but Hill was remarkably efficient, making it through six scoreless frames with just five hits and no walks allowed, piling up three strikeouts along the way. He will likely be given a long leash this time around, and Hill’s soft opponent should allow him to cross the six-inning threshold yet again even if he is again held shy of a full workload, The three strikeouts represented his lowest total since his first start of the season, and the free-swinging Padres will ensure that the number goes up by a decent margin in today’s outing.

Kevin Gausman BAL (vs. NYY) – I need a fifth category for days like today. Gausman and the other two pitchers that surround him in today’s Raise group are, even on their best days, nowhere near the caliber of our All-In pitcher or Raise-worthy pitchers such as Madison Bumgarner and Jake Arrieta, two pitchers who are facing off early today. That said, this group is clearly above the next set of pitchers on the call-list, so I need a “double bet” option to do these players justice. Gausman is a good example. The right-hander has kept opponents off the board in each of his last two starts, hurling 13.0 scoreless innings over the two turns, including seven shutout frames with nine strikeouts against these Yankees in his last start. He’s rung up eight or more Ks in three of his last four starts and has kept the opposition at two tallies or fewer in five of six.

Michael Fulmer DET (at KC) – The rookie was rocked for six runs and 10 hits in 5.2 innings two starts ago, but the fact that he was facing the high-octane offense of the Red Sox gives him a pass. He only struck out one batter in the Sawx game, but in the previous start Fulmer had tossed a nine-inning shutout against the Rangers with nine strikeouts against zero walks. Such has been the case for Fulmer for most of the season, as he has struck out eight or more batters four times in his 21 starts this season (maxing out at 10), but he hasn’t broken six Ks in his other 17 turns. The Angels scored three runs against Fulmer in five innings of his last start and the Royals offer a similar challenge, with a high-contact lineup that would seemingly play into the hands of a pitcher who has given up just 105 hits in 130.2 innings this season.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Bumgarner	0.247	2.86	0.272	2.70	0.253	0.753	0.275	3.05	0.215	0.00	27.2%
Arrieta	0.230	2.00	0.242	2.42	0.264	0.740	0.238	2.82	0.184	0.00	25.8%
Musgrove	0.341	3.77	0.328	4.82	0.259	0.744	0.319	3.90	0.266	86.83	23.5%
Holland	0.279	4.10	0.342	4.92	0.246	0.751	0.282	4.78	0.262	0.00	15.6%
Garcia	0.299	3.34	0.292	3.58	0.243	0.703	0.285	3.68	0.243	89.91	19.3%
Straily	0.304	4.35	0.304	3.78	0.260	0.760	0.243	4.71	0.221	86.84	19.8%
Estrada	0.273	2.99	0.284	3.53	0.246	0.721	0.219	4.38	0.2	90.95	20.0%
Snell	0.290	2.70	0.340	3.83	0.269	0.797	0.356	3.56	0.27	93.14	23.2%
Gant	0.346	4.34	0.350	4.91	0.242	0.686	0.337	3.81	0.273	45.92	22.9%
Velasquez	0.328	4.24	0.321	4.28	0.254	0.691	0.325	3.78	0.253	73.74	26.7%
Nelson	0.358	5.14	0.298	3.56	0.258	0.723	0.294	4.50	0.254	93.26	18.5%
Nova	0.371	4.87	0.314	4.54	0.250	0.711	0.293	4.73	0.268	79.09	16.8%
Sabathia	0.259	3.66	0.345	4.77	0.236	0.671	0.307	4.43	0.266	94.81	19.4%
Gausman	0.283	2.97	0.360	4.97	0.251	0.736	0.302	4.13	0.256	88.49	22.9%
Shields	0.375	4.45	0.335	5.00	0.248	0.714	0.303	5.09	0.266	0.00	20.8%
Santiago	0.308	3.16	0.330	4.51	0.253	0.695	0.260	5.01	0.234	95.35	20.1%
Fernandez	0.314	3.18	0.229	2.53	0.256	0.743	0.336	2.26	0.226	0.01	33.5%
Bauer	0.310	4.02	0.305	4.31	0.261	0.703	0.280	4.13	0.234	89.85	21.9%
Roark	0.316	3.08	0.295	3.79	0.242	0.712	0.283	4.12	0.249	67.44	17.7%
Gsellman					0.250	0.730
Fulmer	0.266	2.43	0.287	2.95	0.262	0.717	0.254	3.75	0.217	0.01	20.6%
Ventura	0.320	4.99	0.302	3.42	0.268	0.748	0.290	4.14	0.246	94.20	20.3%
Shipley	0.336	4.15	0.397	5.74	0.272	0.786	0.258	5.83	0.258	0.00	13.0%
Chatwood	0.311	4.29	0.313	3.22	0.263	0.735	0.283	4.22	0.246	93.59	16.2%
Porcello	0.309	3.77	0.316	4.44	0.249	0.702	0.302	3.83	0.259	100.35	20.6%
Neal	0.343	6.75	0.323	2.95	0.274	0.775	0.285	4.89	0.29	0.00	9.1%
Skaggs			0.330	4.45	0.257	0.732	0.337	3.78	0.268	0.00	21.9%
Walker	0.308	4.18	0.318	4.70	0.257	0.723	0.279	4.36	0.245	91.21	21.5%
Perdomo	0.358	6.30	0.370	5.48	0.252	0.747	0.359	4.62	0.315	0.00	16.1%
Hill	0.189	1.69	0.250	2.03	0.250	0.717	0.265	2.45	0.186	0.02	29.3%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Trevor Bauer CLE (vs. MIA) – At 9.0 percent, Bauer’s walk rate is the best of his career, but the mark is still comfortably above the MLB average and is within a hair of dropping behind the rate of his 2014 campaign. He was on a tear for the first half of the season, but since early July Bauer has reverted to the same inconsistent pitcher that teased over the past few seasons. Sure, he struck out 13 Blue Jays over 8.0 innings a couple starts ago, but Bauer has collected just four Ks or fewer in the other six of his last seven starts and hasn’t whiffed more than a half-dozen hitters in a game since June. The injury-depleted Marlins (Stanton, Ozuna, Bour) present an opportunity for Bauer to get back on track, especially following his six-inning, scoreless performance against the Twins in his last turn.

Tanner Roark WAS (at NYM) – Rostering Roark is all about the floor and little about his projected ceiling of performance. Roark has a tendency to go deep into ballgames, stretching out to 7.0 or more innings in three of his last five starts and in 16 of his 28 total starts this season. He has allowed three or more runs in three of the past six games – three games in which he failed to go seven full frames – and the strikeouts have been typically modest, with five or fewer punchouts in each of his last five starts, six or fewer Ks in every game of the past two months and only one outing of more than seven strikeouts all season – that being the ridiculous outlier in which Roark piled up 15 strikeouts against the Twins way back on April 23.

Vincent Velasquez PHI (vs. ATL) – The strikeouts are back in abundance, but they’ve brought along too many runs to feel terribly comfortable with rostering Velasquez, even against a weak lineup like that of the Braves.He has struck out seven or more batters in each of his last three turns, with a total of 24 Ks in 16.2 innings over that stretch, but he has also allowed 11 runs over that stretch and 20 tallies over his last four games. He kept the ball in the yard against the Mets in his last start, but VV gave up an astronomical total of eight homers over his previous three games, each of which involved five or more runs allowed. The Braves have the lowest homer total in the majors by a substantial margin, and if Velasquez can keep the ball in the park tonight then he he has a good chance to have a solid outing overall.

Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. LAA) – Walker had been sidelined with an injury for a month when he took the mound on August 6th, only to watch the Angels score six runs off him with seven hits, two walks and zero strikeouts over 4.0 frames, at which point the M’s had seen enough and shuttled Walker back to the minor leagues. He earned his way back to the bigs at the end of August, but his two starts went less than smoothly, with 13.0 innings of a 4.95 ERA against the White Sox and Yankees, with just eight strikeouts against four walks. Most troubling, he plunked three batters against the Pale Hose in his last start, matching his total hit batsmen for the entire season. He gets a chance for vengeance against the Angels tonight, but there is nothing in his recent track record to suggest that Walker is about to unshackle the chains of his slump.

Yordano Ventura KC (vs. DET)

Ivan Nova PIT (vs. MIL)

CC Sabathia NYY (at BAL)

Tyler Skaggs LAA (at SEA)

Hector Santiago MIN (vs. CHW)

Jimmy Nelson MIL (at PIT)

John Gant ATL (at PHI)

Robert Gsellman NYM (vs. WAS)