Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, August 23rd

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-08-24 02:10:22

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Musgrove	HOU	PIT	23.2	4.18	3.33	1.10	0.0%	24.50%	3.2%	1.52	1.08
Nova	PIT	HOU	207.2	4.94	4.27	1.37	25.0%	16.70%	6.4%	1.47	1.67
Lopez	WAS	BAL	22.2	4.37	4.04	1.46	0.0%	25.50%	9.8%	0.79	0.89
Gausman	BAL	WAS	239.1	4.17	3.75	1.28	37.5%	22.90%	6.4%	1.50	1.17
Skaggs	LAA	TOR	26.0	5.19	4.06	1.58	37.5%	22.90%	7.6%	1.04	1.04
Dickey	TOR	LAA	362.0	4.15	4.78	1.26	47.6%	15.50%	7.7%	1.27	1.16
Buchholz	BOS	TBR	214.2	4.28	4.26	1.29	33.3%	18.80%	7.1%	0.96	1.23
Archer	TBR	BOS	369.0	3.63	3.28	1.20	55.0%	28.50%	7.9%	1.02	1.36
Ventura	KCR	MIA	302.2	4.25	4.15	1.31	44.4%	20.40%	8.9%	1.01	1.74
Cashner	MIA	KCR	285.1	4.54	4.24	1.45	75.0%	19.70%	8.5%	1.07	1.51
Holland	TEX	CIN	131.1	5.07	4.92	1.36	0.0%	15.00%	7.5%	1.44	0.98
Straily	CIN	TEX	162.0	3.89	4.64	1.17	14.3%	19.70%	8.8%	1.22	0.75
Gray	COL	MIL	167.1	4.89	3.82	1.34	0.0%	24.00%	7.9%	1.02	1.40
Anderson	MIL	COL	266.2	4.59	4.48	1.35	40.0%	17.80%	7.2%	1.35	1.06
Sanchez	DET	MIN	276.2	5.40	4.22	1.38	41.2%	21.00%	8.2%	1.69	0.98
Gibson	MIN	DET	295.2	4.20	4.30	1.36	52.6%	17.10%	7.9%	0.97	1.90
Thompson	PHI	CWS	14.1	8.79	5.42	1.60	0.0%	16.20%	13.2%	1.88	1.64
Rodon	CWS	PHI	255.2	3.98	4.13	1.46	0.0%	22.60%	9.8%	0.99	1.40
Niese	NYM	STL	297.1	4.60	4.42	1.47	41.2%	15.30%	7.6%	1.36	2.02
Garcia	STL	NYM	272.0	3.31	3.74	1.19	28.6%	19.00%	6.8%	0.73	2.51
Whalen	ATL	ARI	22.0	5.73	3.98	1.18	0.0%	24.20%	8.4%	1.64	1.13
Bradley	ARI	ATL	135.2	5.24	4.82	1.57	0.0%	19.20%	12.0%	1.13	1.62
Salazar	CLE	OAK	303.1	3.50	3.60	1.19	12.5%	26.30%	8.6%	1.07	1.23
Manaea	OAK	CLE	110.1	4.73	4.18	1.31	0.0%	19.70%	6.0%	1.47	1.18
Arrieta	CHC	SDP	382.2	2.16	3.21	0.94	50.0%	26.00%	7.2%	0.49	2.18
Friedrich	SDP	CHC	152.1	4.90	4.62	1.56	0.0%	16.80%	9.1%	0.89	1.37
Sabathia	NYY	SEA	297.2	4.63	4.27	1.41	25.0%	19.00%	7.8%	1.30	1.42
Walker	SEA	NYY	259.2	4.40	3.79	1.19	0.0%	21.90%	5.5%	1.53	1.03
Bumgarner	SFG	LAD	394.0	2.63	3.19	1.01	47.6%	27.30%	5.4%	0.91	1.06
Maeda	LAD	SFG	136.2	3.29	3.64	1.07	0.0%	25.20%	6.4%	1.12	1.11

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Madison Bumgarner SF (at LAD) – Bummer has this weird pattern lately, in which he gives up four earned runs every third start. It happened in start no. 17 at Oakland and again in start no. 20 at the Padres, two weak opponents who should have been easily dispatched by the southpaw. Three starts later, he allowed eight runs (four earned) against the lowly Phillies, and three starts later (in his last turn) Bummer gave up another four-spot against an injury-depleted Mets lineup. Meanwhile, he’s been knocking off legitimate offenses such as Baltimore and Washington, and the starts in-between the four-run outings have been excellent in each case. In fact, these are the only times that Bumgarner has given up more than three tallies in a game since Jackie Robinson Day. Luckily for those looking to roster Bumgarner tonight, his last start was one of those four-run fiascos, and if we are to blindly believe the pattern that has emerged, then Bum should be a safe play who also brings plenty of upside to his matchup with the rival Dodgers.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Jake Arrieta CHC (at SD) – This season is noteworthy in Arrieta’s journey due to the sudden spike in walks, and in his last start the wildness reached a rarely-seen extreme, as he walked an amazing seven batters in one game against the Brewers, tying the second-highest total by a pitcher this season (Tyler Chatwood walked eight Braves on July 24). Milwaukee is supposed to be a strikeout-laden vacation for pitchers, but Arrieta whiffed just three batters while giving up five runs in 5.2 frames. The poor performance was ill-timed, as the right-hander seemed to be getting back on track with a three-start run of a 1.31 ERA and just nine hits allowed in 20.2 innings. Expect Arrieta to get back on track with a little help from the San Diego offense, though a lineup that used to lean heavily toward the right has now gone more liberal, with several main components sitting on the left side of the batter’s box.

Kenta Maeda LAD (vs. SF) – He has kept the run-tally low in each start, but part of the reason is that Maeda rarely hangs out long enough to sustain heavy damage. He hasn’t gone more than 7.0 innings or 107 pitches in any start yet this season, though he occasionally spikes bug K-counts versus strikeout-prone ballclubs such as the Phillies, Brewers and Padres. The big fantasy spikes are few and far between, especially lately, as Maeda has thrown more than 97 pitches in just one of his last eight starts. He walks few batters and has been extremely tough to hit this season, leading to a very strong WHIP of 1.07, and he has struck out more than a batter per inning this season. The hit avoidance has been remarkably consistent, as Maeda has not allowed more than seven hits in a game at any point in his MLB career.

Joe Musgrove HOU (at PIT) – In order to make sure that his 15 minutes of fame doesn’t morph into 15 seconds, it is paramount that Musgrove follows up his wretched performance of last start with a strong showing tonight against the Pirates. A pitcher who stays around the strike zone is bound to get hit up once in awhile, particularly when a control artist such as Musgrove loses his release point for a period of time. His stuff is not at the level at which it can survive on its own merit, so Musgrove requires exceptional command in order to execute his strategies; most of the time, that elite command is present, but like any pitcher, he has his bad days at the office where Musgrove is not hitting his spots.

Carlos Rodon CHW (vs. PHI) – After missing most of July with a busted hand, Rodon has come back a vengeance in August, riding a three-game run that includes an ERA of 2.00 with three consecutive quality starts of exactly 6.0 innings pitched, including 16 strikeouts against five walks (and no homers) over that stretch, The longball had become a problem, with six of his previous 11 starts involving multi-homer outings prior to his recent hot streak. He’s defeated tough offenses of the Orioles and Indians, as well as a Marlins club that still had Giancarlo Stanton (he and Christian Yelich struck out six times between them), making tonight’s matchup with the offensively-challenged Phillies an even easier challenge for Rodon.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Musgrove			0.315	5.79	0.259	0.725	0.297	3.78	0.253	89.00	24.5%
Nova	0.374	5.01	0.324	4.88	0.249	0.745	0.299	4.85	0.273	0.00	16.7%
Lopez	0.256	4.20			0.262	0.775	0.328	3.32	0.250	99.50	25.5%
Gausman	0.287	3.13	0.362	5.23	0.250	0.730	0.300	4.25	0.256	87.62	22.9%
Skaggs			0.338	5.03	0.269	0.794	0.372	3.73	0.296	0.00	22.9%
Dickey	0.312	3.83	0.329	4.42	0.255	0.717	0.263	4.78	0.245	97.74	15.5%
Buchholz	0.315	4.66	0.308	3.92	0.245	0.719	0.299	3.97	0.257	73.15	18.8%
Archer	0.281	3.61	0.296	3.66	0.273	0.774	0.299	3.28	0.227	101.98	28.5%
Ventura	0.318	5.02	0.303	3.49	0.262	0.705	0.288	4.15	0.243	94.38	20.4%
Cashner	0.376	5.25	0.313	3.96	0.263	0.719	0.322	4.22	0.272	93.67	19.7%
Holland	0.276	3.65	0.355	5.40	0.245	0.710	0.285	5.04	0.268	0.00	15.0%
Straily	0.309	4.60	0.284	3.23	0.260	0.745	0.241	4.52	0.216	87.43	19.7%
Gray	0.313	4.35	0.332	5.40	0.251	0.711	0.322	3.78	0.257	0.00	24.0%
Anderson	0.312	4.16	0.360	4.96	0.271	0.782	0.296	4.62	0.266	88.00	17.8%
Sanchez	0.321	4.62	0.366	6.27	0.248	0.715	0.298	4.88	0.263	0.00	21.0%
Gibson	0.336	4.74	0.299	3.68	0.267	0.743	0.299	4.19	0.262	100.24	17.1%
Thompson					0.251	0.702	0.250	6.43	0.241	0.00	16.2%
Rodon	0.247	2.76	0.356	4.40	0.254	0.680	0.329	4.02	0.264	96.48	22.6%
Niese	0.358	3.78	0.346	4.84	0.237	0.688	0.305	4.89	0.280	76.89	15.3%
Garcia	0.294	2.91	0.286	3.41	0.247	0.731	0.283	3.56	0.240	90.39	19.0%
Whalen			0.348	3.65	0.263	0.737	0.241	4.78	0.212	0.00	24.2%
Bradley	0.374	4.71	0.306	5.70	0.252	0.683	0.308	4.75	0.262	0.00	19.2%
Salazar	0.298	4.01	0.289	3.04	0.250	0.706	0.281	3.65	0.223	99.90	26.3%
Manaea	0.231	2.28	0.355	5.40	0.270	0.744	0.302	4.44	0.267	0.00	19.7%
Arrieta	0.226	1.87	0.245	2.44	0.238	0.684	0.241	2.74	0.185	0.00	26.0%
Friedrich	0.308	4.71	0.345	5.00	0.252	0.751	0.327	4.19	0.282	0.00	16.8%
Sabathia	0.263	3.92	0.349	4.80	0.259	0.740	0.309	4.52	0.270	94.61	19.0%
Walker	0.306	4.06	0.322	4.80	0.249	0.731	0.282	4.35	0.247	90.70	21.9%
Bumgarner	0.228	2.33	0.273	2.69	0.247	0.715	0.272	3.02	0.213	0.00	27.3%
Maeda	0.294	2.92	0.261	3.60	0.264	0.739	0.269	3.67	0.220	93.13	25.2%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Kevin Gausman BAL (vs. WAS) – It’s funny how one start can alter the perspective of the games that preceded it. One way to look at Gausman’s performance is that he has gone six-plus frames in three of his four starts, with at least a half-dozen strikeouts in each game. Another way to look at things is that he has only thrown two quality starts in his last five turns, including two games of five or more runs allowed, and his big strikeout game against the Giants came packaged with an absurd number of free passes (nine Ks and four walks in 4.0 innings). He had thre two-run starts in a row, but each involved a different spread of innings, and the trio was book-ended by his high-susceptibility games. Rostering Gausman today is a risky proposition, but one that has palpable upside.

Jon Gray COL (at MIL) – Gray has been out of sorts for his last three starts, giving up 19 runs and 22 hits while surviving just 12.0 frames. Each of the three starts has involved four or more earned runs allowed and 4.1 or fewer innings pitched. Prior to that, Gray played the side of the Jekyll/Hyde act by allowing two or fewer runs in five consecutive starts. The fact that he’s pitching against Milwaukee opens the possibility that Gray will set a new personal high for strikeouts tonight, an enticing proposition that will cause some gamers to flock, ignoring the horrific stats from his last three starts. The bandwagon is calling, but I am not quite ready to jump on board.

Chris Archer TB (vs. BOS) – Archer has come into his own recently, helping to rectify what was beginning to look like a lost season. Interestingly enough, it all started with a dominant performance at Coors Field, in which he allowed just four hits and two runs while striking out 11 Rockies over six innings. Since (and including) that start, Archer has reeled off six straight games with at least a half-dozen strikeouts, each involving at least 6.0 innings pitched and with five qualifying as quality starts. He coughed up five earnies to the Yankees in his last start, though even in that game his peripherals shone brightly, including nine strikeouts against zero walks. Even with that turn, over his last six starts Archer has compiled a composite ERA of 2.72 with an incredible 50:7 K:BB in 39.2 innings.

Jaime Garcia STL (vs. NYM) – So let me get this straight: Garcia strikes out 11 Braves three starts ago, despite the fact that Atlanta is a high-contact offense and Garcia is a low-K pitcher, but then he punches out just two Astros in his last turn even though Houston is the AL leader in batter Ks. The 11-K performance was an obvious outlier – he pitched 8.0 frames and only gave up four baserunners – but it was not unprecedented, as Garcia had spun a one-hit shutout against the Brewers back on April 14, a 13-strikeout game that featured just one walk allowed. Outside of those two starts, Garcia has only struck out more than six batters in two other turns and has been capped at eight Ks in any given start. Roster accordingly.

Danny Salazar CLE (at OAK) – Warning! Only safe for GPP play, Not intended for use in cash games.

Tyler Skaggs :LAA (at TOR)

Reynaldo Lopez WAS (at BAL)

Sean Manaea OAK (vs. CLE)

Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. NYY)

Yordano Ventura KC (at MIA)

R.A. Dickey TOR (vs. LAA)

Dan Straily CIN (vs. TEX)

Archie Bradley ARI (vs. ATL)

CC Sabathia NYY (at SEA)

Ivan Nova PIT (vs. HOU)

Andrew Cashner MIA (vs. KC)