Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, June 28th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-06-29 02:42:34

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Harvey	NYM	WAS	274.2	3.31	3.56	1.13		23.0%	5.3%	0.85	1.23
Giolito	WAS	NYM
Hamels	TEX	NYY	309	3.38	3.61	1.20	58.8%	24.1%	7.7%	1.08	1.56
Sabathia	NYY	TEX	237	4.14	4.22	1.38	25.0%	19.2%	7.7%	1.18	1.37
Conley	MIA	DET	150.1	3.65	4.25	1.31		21.1%	8.8%	0.78	1.03
Pelfrey	DET	MIA	245.1	4.48	4.81	1.55		11.7%	7.1%	0.84	1.88
Porcello	BOS	TBR	266	4.57	3.77	1.28	55.6%	20.4%	5.0%	1.29	1.36
Archer	TBR	BOS	304	3.67	3.30	1.23	55.0%	28.3%	8.2%	1.04	1.35
Lamb	CIN	CHC	102.1	5.28	4.43	1.52		20.4%	9.5%	1.41	1.11
Kluber	CLE	ATL	324.2	3.52	3.11	1.04	57.1%	26.9%	5.2%	0.83	1.28
Wisler	ATL	CLE	198.2	4.48	4.91	1.35		15.6%	7.7%	1.31	0.81
Urias	LAD	MIL	27	4.33	3.26	1.48		29.7%	7.6%	1.33	1.11
Anderson	MIL	LAD	226.1	4.57	4.31	1.29	40.0%	17.9%	6.4%	1.35	1.12
Gibson	MIN	CWS	233.1	4.20	4.29	1.34	52.6%	16.8%	8.2%	0.89	2.00
Quintana	CWS	MIN	304	3.26	3.72	1.24	50.0%	21.1%	5.4%	0.65	1.40
Wacha	STL	KCR	269	3.71	4.12	1.26	53.3%	20.1%	7.9%	0.87	1.45
Ventura	KCR	STL	242.2	4.23	4.12	1.34	44.4%	20.6%	9.0%	0.89	1.65
Happ	TOR	COL	266.2	3.54	4.10	1.24	30.8%	19.7%	6.8%	0.95	1.24
Butler	COL	TOR	130.1	6.21	5.00	1.70		13.2%	9.1%	1.66	1.68
Eickhoff	PHI	ARI	142	3.11	3.85	1.14		21.7%	5.9%	1.01	1.15
Greinke	ARI	PHI	330	2.29	3.48	0.94	50.0%	22.5%	4.8%	0.71	1.43
Feldman	HOU	LAA	152.1	3.66	4.38	1.33	47.1%	14.4%	6.2%	1.06	1.75
Lincecum	LAA	HOU	85.1	4.22	4.92	1.50	40.0%	17.1%	11.2%	0.84	1.30
Jimenez	BAL	SDP	255	4.91	4.21	1.52	27.8%	20.4%	9.6%	0.99	1.71
Johnson	SDP	BAL	61.1	5.58	4.98	1.61	20.0%	17.8%	10.1%	2.93	0.70
Niese	PIT	SEA	264.1	4.39	4.34	1.43	41.2%	15.2%	7.4%	1.29	2.14
Iwakuma	SEA	PIT	224.2	3.93	3.83	1.18	60.0%	19.9%	4.8%	1.40	1.32
Graveman	OAK	SFG	190.2	4.30	4.51	1.45		15.5%	7.7%	1.27	1.75
Suarez	SFG	OAK	36.2	3.68	4.26	1.12		15.4%	6.0%	0.74	1.76

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jon Lester CHC (at CIN) – Lester’s peripheral stats are within a rounding error of what they were last year, including a nearly-precise total of a K-per-inning and about two walks per nine innings, which thanks to just 76 hits allowed in 98.2 innings works out to almost exactly a 1.00 WHIP. He has tossed quality starts in 13 of his 15 turns, missing a clean sweep due to falling one out shy in a scoreless stint against the Pirates and one outing that was actually difficult, with Lester coughing up five tallies in just 2.2 innings pitched. He does have quality starts in his last six consecutive outings, striking out at least seven batters in each turn, and at the beginning of June he went through an incredible stretch with one earned run and zero walks allowed through a string of three ballgames, with 26 strikeouts and just 13 hits allowed across 24.0 innings. He has bested the Cubs twice already this season, but the Cincy pitchers have kept the K-counts at five whiffs or fewer in each game, something that Lester will seek to change this time around.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Corey Kluber CLE (at ATL) – If it weren’t for the regularity of Kluber’s blow-up starts, the right-hander would be a slam-dunk All-In candidate, with the upside to spike a monster fantasy point total against a light opponent like the Braves. However, Kluber has given up four or more runs four times in his last nine starts, confusing the issue of whether the right-hander can initiate lockdown, as his downturns have come against modest opponents like the Royals, Astros and Twins. He threw a shutout in his last outing, with nine strikeouts and just five base runners over the nine full frames, and it was the third time in his last four contests that opponents have mustered three or fewer hits across six or more innings. He should be a slam-dunk today, but it’s just when we start to let our guard down that Kluber surprises his owners with another disaster start.

Zack Greinke ARI (vs. PHI) – Greinke’s season is starting to come into focus, and the overall stat-line reveals that his disaster season of 2016 has more to do with his numbers coming back to earth following an outlier of a 2015 season that it indicates some systemic problem in his pitching profile. The low hit rate of last season was simply not going to be repeated, particularly for a high-contact pitcher who was playing his home games in a park that is favorable to balls in play. The run prevention has improved with each calendar month, and since the calendar flipped to June Greinke has been spitting out goose eggs. He has 1.47 ERA this month, and prior to his last start (which was in Colorado and came one out shy of a quality start), Greinke had thrown 7.0 or more innings in four consecutive games and six of his last seven. His strikeouts have still been inconsistent, fuzzing his fantasy value on a game-by-game basis, but the fears of implosion have been replaced by modest concern that he won’t have a big day.

Jose Quintana CHW (vs. MIN) – Quintana is coming off his roughest start of the season, surrendering six runs in 5.1 innings. Including eight hits and a whopping six walks allowed versus the Red Sox. Of course, the BoSox are sticking it to everyone right now, such that most fantasy managers were able to avoid the repercussions by keeping Quintana on the bench, but the walk rate was so incredibly high as to merit concern of a long-term trend. The six-walk game represented twice as many free passes as the southpaw has given away in any other game this season, and he’s only walked more than two batters in one other of his last ten starts. The Twins will offer a much softer landing for Quintana, and in two games against the Twinkies this season Quintana has given up just two total runs over 13.0 innings (a 1.38 ERA) with ten strikeouts, ten hits and four walks allowed across those two ballgames.

Cole Hamels TEX (at NYY) – On the surface, it appears that Hamels is having yet another fantastic season, with a 2.79 ERA that falls right in line with his marks from the previous six seasons and an 8-1 record that theoretically promises a return to the mid-teen victory totals of his youth. There are some issues percolating beneath the surface, however, including career-high rates of walks (3.4 BB/9) and homers (1.4 HR/9) allowed this season, paired with a hit rate of less than 8.0 hits-per-nine that provides a shaky foundation for his value proposition. If the hits regress but the walks and homers remain, then Hamels could be in store for some crooked numbers, but with a veteran of Hamels’ lengthy track record, he has earned the trust of the fantasy community until the downside of those numbers comes to some fruition.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Harvey	0.323	3.92	0.249	2.71	0.246	0.718	0.293	3.20	0.239	0.01	23.0%
Giolito					0.241	0.710
Hamels	0.286	2.06	0.301	3.74	0.255	0.734	0.285	3.82	0.232	0.01	24.1%
Sabathia	0.260	3.97	0.342	4.18	0.265	0.752	0.309	4.32	0.267	0.00	19.2%
Conley	0.327	4.75	0.303	3.38	0.273	0.789	0.300	3.78	0.246	0.01	21.1%
Pelfrey	0.377	5.17	0.327	3.85	0.260	0.699	0.336	4.44	0.308	0.00	11.7%
Porcello	0.325	4.28	0.334	4.93	0.241	0.704	0.314	4.11	0.27	0.00	20.4%
Archer	0.285	3.65	0.298	3.70	0.272	0.768	0.302	3.33	0.23	0.01	28.3%
Lester	0.274	2.87	0.281	2.95	0.248	0.715	0.291	3.01	0.228	0.01	25.2%
Lamb	0.409	6.53	0.343	4.96	0.245	0.728	0.326	4.72	0.278	0.00	20.4%
Kluber	0.309	4.00	0.240	3.08	0.253	0.676	0.288	2.93	0.223	0.01	26.9%
Wisler	0.375	5.31	0.281	3.73	0.253	0.737	0.280	4.79	0.259	0.00	15.6%
Urias			0.377	5.00	0.238	0.690	0.386	3.46	0.284	0.05	29.7%
Anderson	0.308	3.82	0.353	5.26	0.243	0.722	0.291	4.53	0.262	0.00	17.9%
Gibson	0.324	4.81	0.302	3.61	0.250	0.703	0.291	4.15	0.255	0.00	16.8%
Quintana	0.267	3.42	0.315	3.21	0.254	0.724	0.322	3.10	0.262	0.00	21.1%
Wacha	0.282	3.37	0.313	3.98	0.269	0.734	0.284	3.78	0.24	0.00	20.1%
Ventura	0.321	4.93	0.301	3.52	0.264	0.761	0.297	3.96	0.247	0.00	20.6%
Happ	0.293	2.58	0.307	3.82	0.256	0.709	0.294	3.77	0.251	0.00	19.7%
Butler	0.437	6.48	0.368	6.00	0.260	0.784	0.334	5.71	0.315	0.00	13.2%
Eickhoff	0.333	3.97	0.257	2.31	0.264	0.739	0.279	3.60	0.236	0.01	21.7%
Greinke	0.265	2.40	0.235	2.19	0.241	0.679	0.249	3.01	0.206	0.00	22.5%
Feldman	0.312	3.16	0.328	4.14	0.254	0.714	0.293	4.28	0.269	0.00	14.4%
Lincecum	0.277	2.14	0.375	6.69	0.250	0.750	0.301	4.40	0.26	0.01	17.1%
Jimenez	0.341	5.31	0.338	4.51	0.239	0.677	0.332	4.18	0.275	0.00	20.4%
Johnson	0.375	5.74	0.438	5.40	0.262	0.775	0.287	7.19	0.287	0.00	17.8%
Niese	0.332	3.54	0.348	4.65	0.260	0.735	0.299	4.78	0.275	0.00	15.2%
Iwakuma	0.331	3.86	0.296	3.99	0.264	0.735	0.287	4.17	0.255	0.01	19.9%
Graveman	0.340	3.40	0.346	5.19	0.265	0.741	0.308	4.78	0.28	0.00	15.5%
Suarez	0.367	4.02	0.262	3.43	0.250	0.699	0.261	3.92	0.234	0.02	15.4%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Lucas Giolito WAS (vs. NYM) – Giolito makes his much-anticipated MLB debut tonight at home against the Mets. The hard-throwing right-hander has been rumored to have two elite pitches between the fastball and the curve, and though he struggled a bit out of the gate this minor-league season, he has come on of late. Landings don’t get much softer than Giolito’s first assignment, facing a Mets club that has been ravaged by injury, posing an easy test while Giolito deals with the nerves of pitching on the big stage. The upside is salivating, but reality is that this has been an inconsistent pitcher who th Nats have been tentative about getting into too much trouble. He has pitched 6.0 or more frames just five times in 14 starts, though four of those five turns occurred over his last six ballgames. He was walking far too many batters earlier in the season and didn’t really start piling up strikeouts until a month ago, and though he has supposedly slipped back into a delivery with which he is more comfortable – supposedly helping to fuel his improved performance – there’s also a good chance that Washington keeps the workload modest today by keeping him under 100 pitches for the twelfth time in 15 starts this season.

Matt Harvey NYM (at WAS) – Harvey is improving slowly but steadily. Early in the season he had a distinct lack of athleticism and flexibility, which manifested in a stiff motion and lack of torque that hampered his command as well as his radar gun readings. Despite some big improvements over the past month, including more power and a bigger burst to the plate, Harvey is still a ways from rediscovering the dynamite delivery of his past. Once known for his excellent extension at release point, Harvey continues to exaggerate height at release point at the expense of depth, and the combination of a shallower release and a less-powerful delivery continue to compromise his stuff. His improvements provide optimism that he can rise up out of his current well of performance, but he still lacks the stuff and mechanics of the badass that has previously taken the league by storm.

Jerad Eickhoff PHI (at ARI) – Over the last two seasons combined, Eickhoff now has 142.0 innings of a 3.11 ERA and 126 strikeouts with just 34 combined walks allowed (2.2 BB/9). Many teams don’t see it coming, given the light-hitting lineup of the Phillies and Eickhoff’s rather modest pedigree (15 round selection in 2011) and the fact that the right-hander has actually been more effective thus far in the major leagues than he was at any point in the minors. He had a career 4.14 ERA in the minors with worse rates of walks and strikeouts, so the assumption is that regression will hit him hard – but we’re still waiting.

Chris Archer TB (vs. BOS) – Archer has been incredibly frustrating to own in fantasy this season. His upside is clear, as evidenced by the AL-leading 10.6 K/9, and he already has registered three games of double-digit strikeouts this season. The problem is the runs, and though Archer has been chewing up innings as well (at least 6.0 frames in each of his last six starts), plenty of runs have been crossing the plate as well – at least three tallies allowed in each of the six games over that same stretch. Of biggest concern is that opponents are hitting Archer so hard, having no trouble squaring up his pitches, as evidenced by his 16 home runs allowed in 92.0 innings this year, more than double the rate of homers that he has allowed on a per-inning basis in his career to date.

Michael Wacha STL (at KC) – Wacha endured a brutal three-game stretch in mid-May, tossing exactly 4.0 frames in each outing and giving up exactly eight hits and at least six runs in each ballgame. He has since stabilized the rough waters, and his last three starts have encouraged confidence, with a 2.11 ERA and 17:7 K:BB ratio in 21.1 innings across those three starts. The K count still leaves something to be desired but strikeouts have never really been his game so much as limiting the runs scored, and with at least 6.2 innings pitched yet two or fewer runs allowed in each of those three starts, Wacha is beginning to earn his way back into the circle of trust.

Julio Urias LAD (at MIL) – Urias had a shaky start to his career, but he has figured things out and posted solid numbers ever since his third outing of the year. Since getting beat up by the Cubs on June 2, Urias has a 2.33 ERA over 19.1 innings across his last five starts, with a whopping 28 strikeouts against just four walks. However, he remains low on the DFS list due to the kid gloves with which the Dodgers are handling the young southpaw. He did throw 94 pitches in his last start, but it was the first time that the wunderkind had been allowed to toss more than 86 pitches in a big-league outing, and the clear intent of the Dodgers is to take it easy on his pitch counts as well as his numbers of innings, realities that mute his fantasy value due to the ripple effect that his limited innings will have in generating wins and strikeouts.

Rick Porcello BOS (at TB)

Yordano Ventura KC (vs. STL)

CC Sabathia NYY (vs. TEX)

Adam Conley MIA (at DET)

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (vs. PIT)

Matt Wisler ATL (vs. CLE)

Scott Feldman HOU (at LAA)

Kendall Graveman OAK (at SF)

Jon Niese PIT (at SEA)

Albert Suarez SF (vs. OAK)

Mike Pelfrey DET (vs. MIA)

Tim Lincecum LAA (vs. HOU)

Kyle Gibson MIN (at CHW)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (at SD) – The context get much more favorable than facing the Padres in Petco, but Jimenez has been an erratic mess who makes for an intriguing stack option for virtually any offense that opposes him.

Erik Johnson SD (vs. BAL)

J.A. Happ TOR (at COL)

John Lamb CIN (vs. CHC)

Eddie Butler COL (vs. TOR)

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