Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, May 17th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon | CIN | CLE | 214 | 5.51 | 4.84 | 1.50 | 63.2% | 14.8% | 8.5% | 1.39 | 1.27 |
| Salazar | CLE | CIN | 227.2 | 3.16 | 3.41 | 1.11 | 12.5% | 26.8% | 8.1% | 0.99 | 1.21 |
| Blair | ATL | PIT | 20 | 4.05 | 6.46 | 1.50 | 8.4% | 13.3% | 0.45 | 1.09 | |
| Nicasio | PIT | ATL | 95.2 | 4.05 | 3.85 | 1.44 | 35.7% | 24.5% | 11.3% | 0.56 | 1.26 |
| Chen | MIA | PHI | 234.1 | 3.53 | 3.93 | 1.23 | 31.6% | 19.5% | 5.2% | 1.27 | 1.08 |
| Velasquez | PHI | MIA | 99 | 3.64 | 3.50 | 1.15 | 26.6% | 8.5% | 0.73 | 0.78 | |
| Miley | SEA | BAL | 237.2 | 4.54 | 4.17 | 1.35 | 33.3% | 17.9% | 7.2% | 0.95 | 1.56 |
| Jimenez | BAL | SEA | 224.2 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 1.42 | 27.8% | 21.0% | 9.0% | 1.00 | 1.77 |
| Archer | TBR | TOR | 255.1 | 3.45 | 3.17 | 1.21 | 55.0% | 28.8% | 8.2% | 0.95 | 1.40 |
| Stroman | TOR | TBR | 83 | 2.93 | 3.51 | 1.05 | 66.7% | 18.0% | 6.4% | 0.65 | 2.85 |
| Hughes | MIN | DET | 191.2 | 4.79 | 4.36 | 1.31 | 45.0% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 1.69 | 0.92 |
| Pelfrey | DET | MIN | 200.1 | 4.54 | 4.69 | 1.54 | 12.1% | 7.1% | 0.76 | 1.92 | |
| Scherzer | WAS | NYM | 280.2 | 3.05 | 2.68 | 0.97 | 60.0% | 30.8% | 4.4% | 1.22 | 0.80 |
| Syndergaard | NYM | WAS | 196.1 | 3.07 | 2.85 | 1.04 | 28.2% | 5.1% | 1.01 | 1.53 | |
| Hendricks | CHC | MIL | 215.2 | 3.80 | 3.32 | 1.14 | 22.5% | 5.7% | 0.75 | 2.06 | |
| Anderson | MIL | CHC | 188 | 4.64 | 4.34 | 1.36 | 40.0% | 17.2% | 6.6% | 1.29 | 1.19 |
| Keuchel | HOU | CWS | 282 | 3.03 | 3.07 | 1.12 | 50.0% | 22.8% | 6.5% | 0.70 | 3.05 |
| Rodon | CWS | HOU | 179 | 4.02 | 4.12 | 1.46 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 0.85 | 1.60 | |
| Porcello | BOS | KCR | 218.1 | 4.53 | 3.64 | 1.28 | 55.6% | 21.2% | 5.2% | 1.28 | 1.40 |
| Ventura | KCR | BOS | 200.1 | 4.18 | 4.11 | 1.35 | 44.4% | 21.1% | 10.0% | 0.81 | 1.73 |
| Bettis | COL | STL | 164.1 | 4.33 | 3.99 | 1.36 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 0.93 | 1.74 | |
| Garcia | STL | COL | 175 | 2.47 | 3.29 | 1.02 | 28.6% | 21.0% | 6.5% | 0.41 | 2.77 |
| Pineda | NYY | ARI | 199.1 | 4.74 | 3.22 | 1.30 | 75.0% | 23.3% | 4.0% | 1.35 | 1.53 |
| Greinke | ARI | NYY | 272.1 | 2.31 | 3.36 | 0.96 | 50.0% | 23.0% | 4.9% | 0.66 | 1.48 |
| Hamels | TEX | OAK | 255 | 3.53 | 3.47 | 1.20 | 58.8% | 24.6% | 7.5% | 0.99 | 1.59 |
| Surkamp | OAK | TEX | 25.1 | 7.11 | 5.76 | 1.89 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.13 | 0.73 | |
| Weaver | LAA | LAD | 197.1 | 4.93 | 4.90 | 1.30 | 52.4% | 13.6% | 5.0% | 1.46 | 0.70 |
| Kershaw | LAD | LAA | 294.2 | 2.05 | 2.17 | 0.85 | 66.7% | 33.9% | 4.1% | 0.55 | 1.76 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | SDP | 268 | 2.89 | 3.07 | 1.06 | 47.6% | 27.2% | 5.3% | 0.87 | 1.12 |
| Rea | SDP | SFG | 72 | 4.25 | 4.46 | 1.36 | 17.9% | 9.3% | 0.75 | 1.55 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. LAA) – Kershaw versus Trout will be must-see TV. Trout is 2-for-8 in their head-to-head matchups thus far, with a double, a walk and three strikeouts against the game’s best pitcher. Albert Pujols is hitting .393 in his career against Kersh, but most of that was compiled back when Pujols was the game’s greatest hitter. This is all just narrative, but getting down to brass tacks, Kersh is the best option on board once again.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Madison Bumgarner SF (at SD) – The lefty is walking more batters (3.3 BB/9) than any previous season in his career, but he has also spiked the strikeout rate with 60 Ks in 49.2 innings, or 10.9 K/9. His previous high on a per-inning basis (full season) was last year’s 9.6 K/9, but even though his 2016 rate looks to be far superior, on a percentage basis Bumgarner has barely raised the strikeout frequency, from 26.9 to 28.0 percent. It’s just that he’s facing more batters per inning, which has worked to shorten his outings – Bumgarner threw 7.0 or more innings in 18 of his 32 starts last season (56 percent) but has lasted that long in just two of eight starts in 2016 (25 percent). His current ERA of 2.72 is right in tune with last season, and facing the Padres in Petco gives him a good chance to further lower that mark.
Noah Syndergaard NYM (vs. WAS) – Thor has hit a slight rough patch, not that he has been ineffective, just that he has lacked the dominance that DFS managers expect when they pay his hefty price tag. Over his last three starts, Synder has a 3.66 ERA with 17 strikeouts and five walks allowed in 19.2 innings, and he hasn’t topped a half dozen strikeouts in any one of the three outings and hasn’t exceeded 23 points on DraftKings since April 18. Regardless of his small step backward, Syndergaard has the stuff to dominate at any time, and his matchup today with Max Scherzer is likely to be the best pitching duel of the week.
Max Scherzer WAS (at NYM) – Be careful not to pay for the hype generated by his last start, as managers will flock to him with visions of 20 strikeouts in their heads. Up to that point, Scherzer had posted a solid-yet-unspectacular 46 strikeouts in 43.2 innings and hadn’t posted a double-digit K game yet in the campaign. Coming off of a seven-run start that included four home runs, the fantasy crowd was shying away from his services just a week ago. Even in his epic performance against the Tigers, Scherzer allowed a pair of homers, bringing his season total to 11 bombs served up in his eight starts. His last start shoved Scherzer’s upside down everyone’s throats, but he still has the downside to make DFS gamers sick to their stomach. This is a high-end talent that earned his raise designation, but there is added risk involved with employing his services.
Danny Salazar CLE (vs. CIN) – It’s too bad that this game starts a half-hour before the gun goes off on the official starting slate, such that they are the only game that misses the cut for most contests, because Salazar presents a drool-worthy option given his mix of facing a soft opponent, Salazar’s recent performance and his upside. He leads the majors with a hit rate of just 4.6 H/9, and only two of his 22 hits allowed have left the ballpark in his 42.2 innings across seven starts. He has struck out 53 batters this season (11.2 K/9), but he has given up just as many walks as he has hits, giving him a WHIP over 1.00 despite the league-low hit rate. Salazar has been particularly sharp of late; in three May starts, he has struck out 27 batters in 19.2 innings with a 1.37 ERA, and two of those starts have included his lowest walk counts of the season, but his last start was a festival of free passes in which Salazar walked six Astros in 5.0 frames (he also struck out 10).
Cole Hamels TEX (at OAK) – Hamels is following the Bumgarner path, with a higher rate of both walks and strikeouts on a per-inning basis than in any past season. In another similar twist, Hamels is facing more batters per inning due to the extra walks and strikeouts, and his K rate of 25.3 percent is less than a percentage point higher than it was last season. The A’s can be a dangerous team against pitchers with platoon issues, but southpaw Hamels has fared essentially the same in his career against batters from each side of the plate, with a difference of just six points of opponents OPS (actually favoring left-handed bats).
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon | 0.381 | 5.42 | 0.338 | 5.62 | 0.252 | 0.720 | 0.300 | 5.15 | 0.278 | 0.00 | 14.8% |
| Salazar | 0.284 | 3.50 | 0.279 | 2.85 | 0.245 | 0.699 | 0.268 | 3.47 | 0.211 | 0.01 | 26.8% |
| Blair | 0.374 | 4.91 | 0.264 | 0.736 | 0.281 | 4.67 | 0.264 | 0.02 | 8.4% | ||
| Nicasio | 0.410 | 6.39 | 0.261 | 2.92 | 0.255 | 0.675 | 0.327 | 3.33 | 0.247 | 0.00 | 24.5% |
| Chen | 0.258 | 1.98 | 0.342 | 4.01 | 0.251 | 0.681 | 0.296 | 4.05 | 0.26 | 0.01 | 19.5% |
| Velasquez | 0.269 | 2.80 | 0.306 | 4.67 | 0.260 | 0.697 | 0.288 | 3.12 | 0.219 | 0.01 | 26.6% |
| Miley | 0.288 | 3.86 | 0.336 | 4.76 | 0.240 | 0.672 | 0.306 | 3.95 | 0.265 | 0.00 | 17.9% |
| Jimenez | 0.329 | 4.86 | 0.331 | 3.63 | 0.242 | 0.721 | 0.320 | 4.09 | 0.265 | 0.01 | 21.0% |
| Archer | 0.276 | 3.52 | 0.296 | 3.38 | 0.260 | 0.777 | 0.304 | 3.16 | 0.227 | 0.01 | 28.8% |
| Stroman | 0.256 | 3.12 | 0.270 | 2.65 | 0.242 | 0.700 | 0.250 | 3.44 | 0.216 | 0.02 | 18.0% |
| Hughes | 0.335 | 4.40 | 0.362 | 5.16 | 0.267 | 0.737 | 0.307 | 4.72 | 0.292 | 0.00 | 14.9% |
| Pelfrey | 0.384 | 5.24 | 0.317 | 3.95 | 0.241 | 0.696 | 0.337 | 4.28 | 0.306 | 0.00 | 12.1% |
| Scherzer | 0.313 | 3.50 | 0.228 | 2.60 | 0.244 | 0.718 | 0.272 | 3.03 | 0.21 | 0.01 | 30.8% |
| Syndergaard | 0.295 | 3.57 | 0.253 | 2.62 | 0.245 | 0.712 | 0.287 | 3.00 | 0.223 | 0.01 | 28.2% |
| Hendricks | 0.338 | 3.53 | 0.252 | 3.99 | 0.257 | 0.718 | 0.293 | 3.21 | 0.238 | 0.01 | 22.5% |
| Anderson | 0.323 | 4.02 | 0.354 | 5.16 | 0.250 | 0.741 | 0.306 | 4.48 | 0.274 | 0.01 | 17.2% |
| Keuchel | 0.230 | 3.17 | 0.286 | 2.99 | 0.244 | 0.662 | 0.284 | 3.11 | 0.23 | 0.01 | 22.8% |
| Rodon | 0.248 | 3.29 | 0.353 | 4.32 | 0.247 | 0.754 | 0.320 | 3.96 | 0.253 | 0.01 | 22.9% |
| Porcello | 0.330 | 4.34 | 0.327 | 4.78 | 0.264 | 0.728 | 0.317 | 4.02 | 0.269 | 0.01 | 21.2% |
| Ventura | 0.321 | 5.12 | 0.296 | 3.17 | 0.271 | 0.760 | 0.293 | 3.91 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 21.1% |
| Bettis | 0.313 | 4.37 | 0.340 | 4.29 | 0.266 | 0.759 | 0.309 | 3.85 | 0.262 | 0.01 | 19.2% |
| Garcia | 0.256 | 3.25 | 0.245 | 2.27 | 0.262 | 0.710 | 0.259 | 2.90 | 0.209 | 0.01 | 21.0% |
| Pineda | 0.337 | 4.35 | 0.340 | 5.08 | 0.266 | 0.742 | 0.337 | 3.70 | 0.28 | 0.01 | 23.3% |
| Greinke | 0.271 | 2.49 | 0.236 | 2.17 | 0.246 | 0.733 | 0.257 | 2.91 | 0.209 | 0.01 | 23.0% |
| Hamels | 0.290 | 2.13 | 0.300 | 3.92 | 0.252 | 0.707 | 0.294 | 3.61 | 0.235 | 0.01 | 24.6% |
| Surkamp | 0.372 | 4.82 | 0.258 | 0.738 | 0.310 | 7.27 | 0.303 | 0.00 | 12.4% | ||
| Weaver | 0.344 | 4.39 | 0.342 | 5.45 | 0.244 | 0.722 | 0.286 | 4.93 | 0.274 | 0.00 | 13.6% |
| Kershaw | 0.225 | 2.09 | 0.226 | 2.03 | 0.235 | 0.676 | 0.279 | 1.88 | 0.192 | 0.01 | 33.9% |
| Bumgarner | 0.228 | 2.68 | 0.283 | 2.93 | 0.241 | 0.680 | 0.288 | 2.93 | 0.223 | 0.01 | 27.2% |
| Rea | 0.281 | 3.89 | 0.361 | 4.75 | 0.264 | 0.741 | 0.29 | 4.05 | 0.247 | 0.01 | 17.9% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Marcus Stroman TOR (vs. TB) – Despite the small samples involved, Stroman’s performance thus far in 2016 is a dead ringer for his late-season line last season, that is if you look past his bloated ERA. Check it out:
2015: 6.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 6.7 H/7, 0.7 HR/9
2016: 6.6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 7.4 H/9, 0.6 HR/9
Despite all the love that this right-hander gets in fantasy circles, when looking at the numbers he’s exactly the type of pitcher that we have learned to avoid, with a history of low strikeout rates (in the majors, anyway) and seemingly unsustainable hit rates, such that if the BABiP normalizes (.256 this year) on his high volume of balls in play then things could go south in a hurry. I’m a believer in the stuff and the delivery so I think that there is still more in the tank that has yet to be realized, but I’d rather see him do it before rostering him under the assumption that it’s already here.
Vincent Velasquez PHI (vs. MIA) – The luster is wearing quickly from his big 16-K start against the Padres, as in the five start since, VV has a 4.13 ERA with just 24 strikeouts and 10 walks in 28.0 innings pitched. He has struck out 4-to-6 batters in each of those five turns and has given up four or more runs in three of them. He gave up four runs to the light-hitting Braves in his last turn, and in the start prior he gave up four tallies over six frames to these Marlins. With each successive start of similarly mundane performance, the upside fades further into the rearview mirror while the prospect of implosion becomes increasingly tangible.
Juan Nicasio PIT (vs. ATL)
Wei-Yin Chen MIA (at PHI)
Chris Archer TB (at TOR) – Archer has faced a murderer’s row of opponents this season, an aspect that could be tainting his numbers. This will be his third time facing the Blue Jays already this season, and though he has actually fared well against Toronto in the first two turns, he might be tempting fate as the Jays offense feels like a bubble about to explode. He has also faced the Orioles twice, the Red Sox once and the fourth-ranked offense of the Mariners in another turn. The path is going to get easier, but first he needs to survive a trip to the Rogers Centre.
Rick Porcello BOS (at KC) – Yesterday’s game was a rainout, so we have the same pitching matchup for tonight’s contest. Here’s what I said in yesterday’s piece: “Porcello has been a revelation for the Red Sox so far this season, providing much-needed stability atop a shaky rotation whose one anchor – offseason cash cow David Price – is undergoing a mid-career crisis of sorts as he tries to fix his delivery. It’s a refreshing change of pace for a pitcher who was brought up at a young age and handed a significant workload, and who has continuously let optimistic managers down when a breakout is seemingly in the offing. Instead, the right-hander waited until nobody was looking and has been everything in 2016 that was expected of him four years prior. Porcello has tossed six consecutive quality starts, though his penchant to give up exactly three runs (four times this year) makes that sentence a bit misleading. He struck out 24 batters through his first three games (19.1 innings) but has failed to top a half-dozen Ks in any game since, and one of his two standout starts this year was against the lackluster offense of the Braves. Proceed with caution.”
Carlos Rodon CHW (vs. HOU)
Jaime Garcia STL (vs. COL)
Zack Greinke ARI (vs. NYY)
Dallas Keuchel HOU (at CHW)
Michael Pineda NYY (at ARI)
Jesse Hahn OAK (vs. TEX)
Kyle Hendricks CHC (at MIL)
Chad Bettis COL (at STL)
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (vs. SEA)
Aaron Blair ATL (at PIT)
Colin Rea SD (vs. SF)
Phil Hughes MIN (at DET)
Yordano Ventura KC (vs. BOS) – Here’s what I said before yesterday’s rainout: “Some of this low ranking is not Ventura’s fault. As a team, the Red Sox are mashing everything in sight right now, having scored 73 runs over their past seven games, or more than 10 runs per game. Boston has contributed to the demise of Dallas Keuchel and Sonny Gray over the past week, and Ventura is next on the list. For his part, the right-hander is having a career-worst campaign thus far in 2016. His 28 walks represent the highest total in the majors. His ERA of 4.62 is nearly a half-run higher than last season (which itself was a career-high at the time) and he has only struck out 26 batters in 37.0 innings (6.3 K/9) on the year> There are probably reasons to roster Ventura today, but I sure can’t think of ‘em.”
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Mike Pelfrey DET (vs. MIN)
Alfredo Simon CIN (at CLE)
Jered Weaver LAA (at LAD)
Wade Miley SEA (at BAL)
Chase Anderson MIL (vs. CHC)
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window