Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, September 20th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-09-21 02:18:18

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Rodriguez	BOS	BAL	212.0	4.33	4.44	1.31	0.0%	18.60%	7.6%	1.19	1.00
Gausman	BAL	BOS	272.1	3.77	3.72	1.24	37.5%	23.10%	6.3%	1.32	1.21
Shields	CWS	PHI	365.2	4.77	4.38	1.45	42.9%	20.90%	9.7%	1.72	1.18
Thompson	PHI	CWS	44.2	5.64	5.34	1.48	0.0%	15.30%	11.2%	1.61	1.33
Teheran	ATL	NYM	370.2	3.64	4.09	1.18	70.0%	21.10%	7.2%	1.17	1.01
Gsellman	NYM	ATL	26.1	3.08	4.43	1.41	0.0%	18.90%	9.0%	0.34	1.71
Volquez	KCR	CLE	375.1	4.41	4.48	1.41	50.0%	17.30%	8.4%	0.89	1.60
Tomlin	CLE	KCR	219.0	4.23	3.99	1.12	23.1%	18.70%	3.1%	1.97	1.08
Pineda	NYY	TBR	321.0	4.65	3.26	1.29	75.0%	25.00%	4.9%	1.26	1.54
Smyly	TBR	NYY	231.0	4.44	3.86	1.24	50.0%	24.40%	6.8%	1.64	0.67
Roark	WAS	MIA	304.1	3.34	4.24	1.23	52.6%	18.10%	7.3%	0.92	1.59
Fernandez	MIA	WAS	239.0	2.97	2.84	1.15	75.0%	32.80%	7.1%	0.64	1.29
Smith	CIN	CHC	83.1	5.72	4.66	1.62	0.0%	18.80%	11.5%	1.62	1.22
Lester	CHC	CIN	389.0	2.89	3.40	1.07	65.0%	25.00%	6.1%	0.83	1.53
Wright	LAA	TEX	23.0	7.04	5.37	1.78	0.0%	10.20%	5.6%	1.57	1.00
Griffin	TEX	LAA	113.0	4.78	4.51	1.29	0.0%	21.50%	8.4%	2.07	0.61
Boyd	DET	MIN	146.2	5.65	4.56	1.42	0.0%	18.70%	7.6%	1.96	0.77
Santiago	MIN	DET	345.1	4.09	4.75	1.31	16.7%	19.80%	9.7%	1.51	0.64
Brault	PIT	MIL	27.2	3.90	4.92	1.66	0.0%	16.90%	9.2%	0.98	1.20
Garza	MIL	PIT	240.1	5.09	4.67	1.54	35.0%	15.50%	8.3%	1.27	1.57
Wainwright	STL	COL	209.2	4.12	4.20	1.33	84.2%	18.50%	6.4%	0.73	1.58
De La Rosa	COL	STL	278.1	4.66	4.48	1.48	40.0%	19.10%	10.2%	1.23	1.71
Musgrove	HOU	OAK	49.2	4.71	3.87	1.27	0.0%	22.50%	6.2%	1.63	1.17
Manaea	OAK	HOU	125.2	4.23	4.09	1.24	0.0%	20.80%	6.3%	1.36	1.18
Bradley	ARI	SDP	161.2	5.23	4.67	1.59	0.0%	19.60%	11.2%	1.06	1.67
Clemens	SDP	ARI	54.2	4.94	5.34	1.65	0.0%	15.90%	11.2%	1.98	1.00
Cueto	SFG	LAD	419.1	3.16	3.75	1.10	76.2%	21.10%	5.2%	0.77	1.41
Hill	LAD	SFG	129.1	1.95	3.07	0.89	0.0%	30.60%	7.2%	0.35	1.28
Happ	TOR	SEA	348.1	3.44	4.00	1.21	30.8%	21.10%	6.8%	0.98	1.20
Iwakuma	SEA	TOR	315.2	3.73	4.06	1.19	60.0%	18.80%	4.9%	1.25	1.25

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jon Lester CHC (vs. CIN) – Lester has only allowed one run in 24.0 innings this month, and going back to late July he has a composite ERA of just 1.02 over his last nine starts covering 61.2 innings, including a 61:12 K:BB over that stretch. He’s gone at least seven full frames in all three September starts, never exceeding 104 pitches in any one game, and it all started with a complete game three-hitter against the Giants to kick off the month that only required 102 throws from start to finish. At a time when a number of high-end starters are weaving through some rough times, Lester just gets stronger as the season wears on, and though the K count has modestly stayed at eight strikeout or fewer in every game since early June, he has also maintained his K-per-inning pace over the past three months by substituting a high floor instead of a vaulted ceiling.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Jose Fernandez MIA (vs. WAS) – The home/road discrepancy only seems like it’s overblown, as the disparity is stark enough that is should not be ignored. Fern takes the ball at home tonight, a strong distinction for a pitcher who has given up zero runs over his last two starts and struck out 23 batters in 14.0 innings at home, but 11 runs with eight strikeouts in 12.2 innings over his last two starts on the road. For the season, home Fern has a ridiculous 1.77 ERA, a 142:28 K:BB and an 11-2 record over 15 starts (96.2 innings); road Fern has been battered to the tune of a 4.52 ERA, a 99:27 K:BB and a 4-6 record in 13 turns (77.2 innings). His OPS against is nearly 200 points lower when pitching at home this season, while nine of his 13 homers have been given up on the road. Expect Fern to have fire in his eyes as he looks to avenge his last start as the Marlins try desperately to stave off elimination.

Rich Hill LAD (vs. SF) – The blistered left-hander followed his seven-inning perfecto with a four-run start over 5.1 frames against Arizona, featuring the first runs that he had given up this season after firing 19 scoreless innings while donning Dodger blue. He still mustered eight strikeouts in the five-plus innings against the Diamondbacks, the third straight start that he had struck out at least that many batters. He only punched out three Giants when he faced them at the end of August in his first start back from the DL, but he limited them to five hits over six scoreless innings. Expect a run or two to cross the plate in tonight’s outing, but with a K count high enough to counterbalance the extra tallies.

Johnny Cueto SF (at LAD) – Cueto doesn’t get the respect that he deserves. He has given up two or fewer runs while pitching seven or more innings in each of his three starts this month, including the two-run complete game against the Cardinals in his last turn that propelled his record to a gaudy 16-5. He kept the opposition at two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, and though the K rate is a bit modest (21.9 percent, 7.9 K/9), Cueto more than makes up the difference with stamina and run prevention. He faced the Dodgers in late August, giving up one run over six with six strikeouts against one walk, thouh he took the loss in a 1-0 ballgame.

Julio Teheran ATL (at NYM) – Teheran is coming off a five-run start against the Marlins, the second rough outing in his last five turns, though they were sandwiched around a trio of quality starts, each with two or fewer runs allowed. The caveat is that all three of his strong starts came against suspect offenses, including the Padres, Phillies, and these Mets, who he limited to two runs over six innings just two starts ago. Similar to Cueto, Teheran is not a heavy strikeout candidate, relying instead on run prevention to bring value, and such pitchers are naturally vulnerable to the whims of balls in play.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Rodriguez	0.342	4.66	0.300	4.08	0.236	0.674	0.277	4.32	0.245	94.46	18.9%
Gausman	0.278	2.90	0.358	4.88	0.275	0.779	0.303	4.04	0.254	89.39	23.2%
Shields	0.379	4.51	0.338	5.12	0.241	0.684	0.301	5.25	0.266	0.00	20.7%
Thompson	0.388	3.86	0.316	8.10	0.253	0.707	0.265	5.81	0.252	0.00	15.6%
Teheran	0.354	4.65	0.252	2.69	0.242	0.712	0.272	4.10	0.234	99.47	21.1%
Gsellman			0.322	4.38	0.256	0.699	0.333	3.58	0.272	87.75	18.7%
Volquez	0.319	3.99	0.320	4.53	0.257	0.746	0.304	4.08	0.263	96.59	17.4%
Tomlin	0.265	2.90	0.367	5.49	0.262	0.718	0.262	4.97	0.253	89.53	18.9%
Pineda	0.334	4.34	0.326	5.02	0.245	0.720	0.338	3.57	0.272	0.00	25.0%
Smyly	0.298	4.66	0.325	4.42	0.254	0.727	0.290	4.35	0.247	96.00	24.6%
Roark	0.318	3.14	0.294	3.68	0.261	0.702	0.285	4.07	0.249	68.41	17.9%
Fernandez	0.319	3.27	0.231	2.57	0.251	0.729	0.342	2.26	0.23	0.01	33.4%
Smith	0.423	7.18	0.316	5.06	0.247	0.738	0.318	5.51	0.279	0.00	18.8%
Lester	0.272	2.91	0.282	2.97	0.245	0.706	0.282	3.21	0.225	0.00	24.9%
Wright					0.260	0.750	0.380	5.98	0.373	0.00	9.1%
Griffin	0.410	5.96	0.284	3.88	0.256	0.722	0.272	5.57	0.251	0.00	21.1%
Boyd	0.373	6.95	0.349	4.84	0.260	0.747	0.292	5.41	0.271	0.00	19.0%
Santiago	0.312	3.20	0.327	4.41	0.270	0.778	0.257	5.03	0.233	95.68	19.9%
Brault			0.338	3.15	0.245	0.722	0.311	4.39	0.263	88.00	17.4%
Garza	0.368	5.43	0.329	4.95	0.259	0.725	0.311	4.76	0.281	0.00	15.6%
Wainwright	0.337	4.55	0.301	3.72	0.272	0.787	0.320	3.44	0.269	88.39	18.9%
De La Rosa	0.329	5.13	0.339	4.39	0.239	0.700	0.302	4.58	0.26	90.57	19.2%
Musgrove	0.362	4.74	0.340	4.81	0.249	0.703	0.306	4.67	0.266	0.00	21.9%
Manaea	0.223	2.19	0.343	4.97	0.246	0.749	0.291	4.34	0.255	87.76	20.6%
Bradley	0.364	4.70	0.323	5.78	0.237	0.682	0.318	4.62	0.269	0.00	19.4%
Clemens	0.310	2.59	0.433	6.82	0.262	0.734	0.298	6.23	0.282	0.00	15.9%
Cueto	0.275	2.49	0.293	3.78	0.253	0.750	0.283	3.33	0.236	102.70	21.1%
Hill	0.172	1.52	0.234	1.81	0.264	0.720	0.247	2.29	0.172	0.01	30.3%
Happ	0.288	3.16	0.303	3.56	0.260	0.741	0.294	3.68	0.246	91.37	21.3%
Iwakuma	0.315	3.56	0.307	3.98	0.257	0.776	0.29	4.07	0.258	92.37	19.0%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Kevin Gausman BAL (vs. BOS) – Gausman was the toughest pitcher for me to rank on tonight’s slate. On the one hand, he’s been on an absolute tear over his last five games, carrying a microscopic ERA of 0.82 with a 32:7 K:BB over 33.0 innings pitched; on the other hand, he’s facing the Red Sox. On the third hand, he dominated the Red Sox just six days ago, firing 8.0 scoreless innings of four-hit baseball and just one walk allowed, punching out six batters along the way; on the fourth hand, the Sawx scored 11 runs over 9.0 innings in his two previous meetings with the best offense in the game.

Tanner Roark WAS (at MIA) – Roark is riding the same wave of low-K run prevention as J.A. Happ, but Roark’s ride has been far more mundane. The right-hander’s on a good run, though, with an ERA of 1.08 over his last four starts, with high counts (for him) of walks and strikeouts at a 23:11 K:BB. He has struck out 15 batters over his last two starts, striking out seven or more batters in each turn despite not having registered more than a half-dozen Ks in any of his previous 13 starts.

J.A. Happ TOR (at SEA) – Happ is a classic low-ceiling, high-floor pitcher, with low K-counts and value that is predicated on run prevention. He has been known to spike strikeouts now and then, but his owners will be stoked if Happ can replicate his six scoreless, one-hit frames against the Mariners from late July. His last two games have been an unmitigated success in the run prevention department, giving up just three earned runs on seven hits and four walks in 12.0 innings against the Angels and Red Sox, earning the W in each game to bring his record to 19-4. I’m not usually a big advocate of won-loss record, but I take notice when it comes from a high-floor pitcher who’s attached to a high-octane offense.

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (vs. TOR) – Iwakuma lives by the quality start. He has given up exactly three runs in four of his last seven turns, and two of the other three also qualified for the QS. Those two were his last pair of outings, in which Iwakuma shut down AL West rivals the A’s and Angels with just three combined runs allowed over 13 innings. Iwakuma follows in the footsteps of the two hurlers right in front of him on this list, as a pitcher whose value comes from the high floor as opposed to the ceiling. The Blue Jays will be a tough test for Iwakuma, though he handled them back in July to the tune of two earned over six, with three strikeouts to his credit.

Michael Pineda NYY (at TB) – The Yankees have really limited Pineda’s exposure recently, keeping him under 90 pitches in six of his last seven starts, including the last three turns in a row despite his not having given up more than two runs yet lasting less than five innings in all three turns. He threw just 82 pitches in his last start despite tossing four scoreless frames, indicating that the Yankees have a quick hook with the right-hander regardless of the box score.

Drew Smyly TB (vs. NYY)

Joe Musgrove HOU (at OAK)

Sean Manaea OAK (vs. HOU)

Matt Boyd DET (at MIN)

Eduardo Rodriguez BOS (at BAL)

Archie Bradley ARI (at SD)

Adam Wainwright STL (at COL)

Robert Gsellman NYM (vs. ATL)

Matt Garza MIL (vs. PIT)

Steven Brault PIT (at MIL)

A.J. Griffin TEX (vs. LAA)

Josh Tomlin CLE (vs. KC)