Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, August 24th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
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Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McHugh | HOU | PIT | 340.2 | 4.33 | 3.91 | 1.37 | 42.9% | 21.1% | 6.3% | 1.08 | 1.24 |
| Cole | PIT | HOU | 317 | 2.84 | 3.56 | 1.19 | 28.6% | 22.5% | 5.8% | 0.45 | 1.63 |
| Anderson | COL | MIL | 78 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 1.22 | 20.9% | 5.6% | 1.04 | 2.03 | |
| Davies | MIL | COL | 161 | 4.08 | 4.24 | 1.25 | 18.6% | 6.9% | 0.95 | 1.56 | |
| Bauer | CLE | OAK | 315.1 | 4.25 | 4.23 | 1.30 | 38.5% | 22.3% | 10.0% | 1.08 | 1.19 |
| Graveman | OAK | CLE | 258.2 | 4.07 | 4.50 | 1.36 | 14.6% | 6.8% | 1.15 | 1.82 | |
| Hendricks | CHC | SDP | 326 | 3.15 | 3.56 | 1.09 | 22.3% | 6.0% | 0.83 | 1.78 | |
| Clemens | SDP | CHC | 37.1 | 4.82 | 5.43 | 1.58 | 15.9% | 11.8% | 2.41 | 0.96 | |
| Iwakuma | SEA | NYY | 286.2 | 3.67 | 3.97 | 1.18 | 60.0% | 19.4% | 4.7% | 1.26 | 1.24 |
| Miley | BAL | WAS | 322.2 | 4.91 | 4.35 | 1.39 | 33.3% | 17.5% | 7.4% | 1.06 | 1.54 |
| Roark | WAS | BAL | 274.1 | 3.48 | 4.20 | 1.22 | 52.6% | 17.8% | 6.8% | 0.98 | 1.60 |
| Shoemaker | LAA | TOR | 281 | 4.29 | 3.94 | 1.26 | 44.4% | 20.9% | 5.4% | 1.31 | 0.98 |
| Estrada | TOR | LAA | 313.1 | 3.16 | 4.46 | 1.04 | 27.8% | 20.2% | 8.0% | 1.21 | 0.66 |
| Porcello | BOS | TBR | 337 | 4.09 | 3.79 | 1.20 | 55.6% | 20.4% | 4.7% | 1.18 | 1.35 |
| Andriese | TBR | BOS | 156.2 | 3.85 | 3.99 | 1.21 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 1.09 | 1.30 | |
| Gee | KCR | MIA | 133.1 | 4.93 | 4.38 | 1.56 | 50.0% | 17.0% | 6.8% | 1.62 | 1.31 |
| Fernandez | MIA | KCR | 206.1 | 3.01 | 2.69 | 1.13 | 75.0% | 33.8% | 6.7% | 0.65 | 1.36 |
| Darvish | TEX | CIN | 59 | 2.75 | 2.91 | 1.07 | 55.6% | 31.8% | 5.9% | 1.37 | 1.00 |
| Adleman | CIN | TEX | 24.1 | 2.96 | 5.06 | 1.40 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 1.11 | 0.84 | |
| Boyd | DET | MIN | 126 | 5.57 | 4.61 | 1.39 | 18.5% | 8.0% | 2.00 | 0.77 | |
| Duffey | MIN | DET | 170.1 | 4.97 | 3.99 | 1.40 | 20.0% | 6.5% | 1.27 | 1.64 | |
| Eickhoff | PHI | CWS | 200.2 | 3.59 | 3.97 | 1.19 | 21.3% | 5.8% | 1.17 | 1.08 | |
| Shields | CWS | PHI | 339.1 | 4.75 | 4.35 | 1.45 | 42.9% | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.64 | 1.21 |
| deGrom | NYM | STL | 329.1 | 2.62 | 3.22 | 1.04 | 50.0% | 26.0% | 5.2% | 0.77 | 1.37 |
| Martinez | STL | NYM | 324 | 3.11 | 3.74 | 1.24 | 22.4% | 8.4% | 0.67 | 2.15 | |
| Teheran | ATL | ARI | 340.1 | 3.57 | 4.11 | 1.18 | 70.0% | 21.1% | 7.5% | 1.14 | 1.02 |
| Greinke | ARI | ATL | 346.2 | 2.57 | 3.48 | 0.98 | 50.0% | 22.7% | 4.7% | 0.78 | 1.43 |
| Cueto | SFG | LAD | 385.2 | 3.20 | 3.74 | 1.11 | 76.2% | 21.0% | 5.1% | 0.79 | 1.38 |
| Hill | LAD | SFG | 105 | 2.06 | 3.16 | 0.97 | 30.2% | 7.9% | 0.34 | 1.45 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Jose Fernandez MIA (vs. KC) – There is a thick tier of rosterable pitchers in DFS today, and though he has some competition for the top spot, Jose Fernandez is once again king for a day in these rankings. He hasn’t had one of his trademark monster strikeout performances in a while, not having cracked double-digit Ks in any of his last five starts, a fact that sounds completely unimpressive on its surface but gains some steam when considering that it toes his longest such streak of the season. The Royals are not the high-contact, strikeout-avoiding lineup that established their brand over the past two years, opening up the window for them to be dominated by a strikeout artists such as Fern. He’s actually coming off his shortest start of the season, lasting just 4.0 frames against the Reds while coughing up five runs and seven hits, marking the third time in his last eight games that Fernandez had given up at least that many tallies. That said, the positives far outweigh the negatives for a pitcher who hasn’t walked more than two batters or whiffed fewer than six in a game since June.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Yu Darvish TEX (at CIN) – Darvish finished closer to Fern in today’s rankings than it looks at first glance, and it can be argued that he possesses both the higher floor and the higher ceiling than Fernandez, but we have yet to see the peaks of Darvish’s performance.He hasn’t given up more than three earned runs yet in a game this season, hasn’t walked more than one batter in any of his last six contests, and has extended his pitch count to 100 or more throws in a game, giving Darvish the space to toss more than 6.0 frames in each of his last four turns. His K rate of 31.8 percent this season is above his career mark, and if Darvish is given a fully-lengthened leash then he could finish with a stockpile of strikeouts.
Jacob deGrom NYM (at STL) – deGrom is coming off what was by far his worst start of the season, coughing up eight runs on 13 hits to the Giants, who danced around the bases like a carousel with just one of the baker’s dozen leaving the yard. The horrific appearance will drop his salary, as will his formidable opponent, but deGrom was on an incredible four-game streak prior to the implosion. The right-hander pitched 6.2 innings or more and gave up one or zero runs in each of those four starts, with a 0.65 ERA and 26:5 K:BB over 27.2 innings pitched.
Kyle Hendricks CHC (at SD) – Say hello to MLB’s ERA leader, with a 2.16 mark over 146.0 innings this season. The biggest knock on Hendricks is his pedestrian strikeout rate, but what’s remarkable is the similarities in his peripheral stats over the last two seasons, yet the disparity in ERA. In both 2015 and so far in ‘16, his walk rate is 2.2 BB/9, and his 0.9 HR/9 has only gone down to 0.8 HR/9 this year. His K rate has actually gone down, from 8.4 K/9 to 7.8 K/9, yet somehow Hendricks has nearly cut his 3.95 ERA from last season in half. The Padres are the second-most strikeout-prone offense in baseball, buffering Hendricks in the K department, while he gets to enjoy the context of a pitcher-friendly ballpark, a weak-hitting opponent and the strong likelihood of excellent run support.
Johnny Cueto SF (at LAD) – Cueto’s stat-lines have been all over the place for the past month or so. He only gave up one run over seven frames in his last start against the Mets, but Cueto rung up just two strikeouts. The K count has been low for his last three starts, with a combined 11 strikeouts in 18.2 innings, but the preceding start included 10 strikeouts in just the one game (7.2 innings). He’s been giving up a lot of hits recently, particularly when compared to his hit rates of the first half. He allowed 7.3 H/9 prior to the All-Star break, but that count has risen to 10.4 H/9 in 41.1 innings after the break. He has also given up seven homers over that stretch, compared to six allowed in 131.1 innings of the first half.
Carlos Martinez STL (vs. NYM) – Coming off a gem, Martinez allowed just one run, three hits and one walk over 7.0 innings against the Astros in his last start, picking up seven strikeouts along the way. It was the first time that the right-hander had generated more than five strikeouts in a game since the All-Star break, a feat that was surely aided by the strikeout-laden offense of the Astros. His previous turn was a baseline quality start against the Cubs in Wrigley, but go back one more outing on his game log and we find a seven-run (six earned) drubbing at the hands of the weak and powerless Braves. He’s a gamble, with some theoretical upside in strikeouts but also some theoretical downside in the form of walks.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McHugh | 0.315 | 4.28 | 0.343 | 4.38 | 0.259 | 0.725 | 0.332 | 3.81 | 0.277 | 98.40 | 21.1% |
| Cole | 0.296 | 2.53 | 0.281 | 3.13 | 0.249 | 0.745 | 0.318 | 2.81 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 22.5% |
| Anderson | 0.257 | 1.29 | 0.327 | 4.58 | 0.244 | 0.713 | 0.304 | 3.70 | 0.257 | 93.69 | 20.9% |
| Davies | 0.316 | 3.04 | 0.299 | 4.97 | 0.271 | 0.782 | 0.290 | 3.91 | 0.251 | 92.00 | 18.6% |
| Bauer | 0.313 | 4.13 | 0.304 | 4.37 | 0.250 | 0.706 | 0.279 | 4.19 | 0.232 | 89.36 | 22.3% |
| Graveman | 0.331 | 3.62 | 0.318 | 4.54 | 0.257 | 0.745 | 0.294 | 4.53 | 0.27 | 90.22 | 14.6% |
| Hendricks | 0.311 | 2.72 | 0.253 | 3.48 | 0.238 | 0.684 | 0.274 | 3.40 | 0.226 | 89.50 | 22.3% |
| Clemens | 0.293 | 1.65 | 0.434 | 7.29 | 0.250 | 0.744 | 0.261 | 6.95 | 0.264 | 0.00 | 15.9% |
| Tanaka | 0.279 | 3.55 | 0.280 | 3.20 | 0.250 | 0.738 | 0.260 | 3.62 | 0.226 | 94.88 | 21.9% |
| Iwakuma | 0.311 | 3.44 | 0.302 | 3.88 | 0.249 | 0.731 | 0.287 | 4.00 | 0.254 | 92.60 | 19.4% |
| Miley | 0.297 | 4.16 | 0.344 | 5.14 | 0.262 | 0.772 | 0.310 | 4.20 | 0.272 | 0.00 | 17.5% |
| Roark | 0.312 | 3.11 | 0.296 | 3.81 | 0.262 | 0.775 | 0.283 | 4.09 | 0.249 | 66.29 | 17.8% |
| Shoemaker | 0.304 | 4.40 | 0.341 | 4.15 | 0.257 | 0.777 | 0.304 | 4.08 | 0.262 | 88.73 | 20.9% |
| Estrada | 0.276 | 3.06 | 0.272 | 3.28 | 0.255 | 0.717 | 0.215 | 4.31 | 0.197 | 90.73 | 20.2% |
| Porcello | 0.311 | 3.83 | 0.317 | 4.41 | 0.245 | 0.719 | 0.301 | 3.92 | 0.259 | 99.89 | 20.4% |
| Andriese | 0.302 | 3.93 | 0.292 | 3.78 | 0.273 | 0.774 | 0.283 | 3.93 | 0.248 | 52.68 | 19.0% |
| Gee | 0.389 | 5.46 | 0.333 | 4.43 | 0.262 | 0.705 | 0.335 | 4.99 | 0.302 | 0.00 | 17.0% |
| Fernandez | 0.321 | 3.38 | 0.227 | 2.69 | 0.263 | 0.719 | 0.340 | 2.26 | 0.228 | 0.01 | 33.8% |
| Darvish | 0.260 | 3.14 | 0.308 | 2.37 | 0.250 | 0.711 | 0.288 | 3.32 | 0.219 | 0.03 | 31.8% |
| Adleman | 0.413 | 5.73 | 0.250 | 0.68 | 0.260 | 0.745 | 0.286 | 4.92 | 0.25 | 0.04 | 17.9% |
| Boyd | 0.389 | 7.50 | 0.346 | 4.97 | 0.259 | 0.743 | 0.284 | 5.56 | 0.267 | 0.00 | 18.5% |
| Duffey | 0.310 | 3.61 | 0.373 | 6.30 | 0.267 | 0.743 | 0.326 | 4.18 | 0.279 | 0.00 | 20.0% |
| Eickhoff | 0.346 | 4.31 | 0.270 | 2.87 | 0.251 | 0.702 | 0.287 | 3.89 | 0.246 | 93.88 | 21.3% |
| Shields | 0.377 | 4.47 | 0.332 | 5.00 | 0.243 | 0.689 | 0.303 | 5.07 | 0.266 | 0.00 | 20.8% |
| deGrom | 0.278 | 2.75 | 0.247 | 2.49 | 0.261 | 0.760 | 0.283 | 2.85 | 0.222 | 0.01 | 26.0% |
| Martinez | 0.327 | 3.75 | 0.257 | 2.48 | 0.241 | 0.708 | 0.297 | 3.45 | 0.237 | 0.00 | 22.4% |
| Teheran | 0.349 | 4.58 | 0.252 | 2.72 | 0.263 | 0.737 | 0.269 | 4.11 | 0.232 | 99.24 | 21.1% |
| Greinke | 0.271 | 2.63 | 0.246 | 2.51 | 0.252 | 0.683 | 0.259 | 3.08 | 0.214 | 0.00 | 22.7% |
| Cueto | 0.285 | 2.62 | 0.287 | 3.69 | 0.251 | 0.743 | 0.285 | 3.32 | 0.238 | 103.44 | 21.0% |
| Hill | 0.199 | 1.80 | 0.251 | 2.14 | 0.267 | 0.724 | 0.266 | 2.47 | 0.184 | 0.02 | 30.2% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Rick Porcello BOS (at TB) – I don’t typically focus too much on wins because of the volatility inherent in the stat, but wins are worth a lot of points on some DFS sites and today’s matchup is the best bet on the board. The 17-3 Porcello is in line for another W, as relative offense could not be much more disparate than comparing top-ranked Boston with trade-depleted Tampa. Porcello has improved his game in every facet this season, keeping the hits and the homers down – in the case of his 7.9 H/9, it’s a career-low by more than a hit per nine – while dropping the already-low walk frequency to another career-low mark for this season, as Porcello has given up just 1.5 BB/9. He gets to enjoy an easy target against his AL East foe.
Zack Greinke ARI (vs. ATL) – Facing Atlanta is supposed to be a slam dunk, but the Braves have had a knack for bludgeoning great pitchers in recent weeks. For his part, Greinke has been largely disappointing since returning from the DL a few starts ago, accentuated by a nine-run disaster that included three homers over 1.2 innings against the Red Sox (facing the Sawx is like pitching in Coors). Greinke rebounded nicely – a start against the Padres cures all that ails – tossing a seven-inning quality start and striking out eight Friars.
Masahiro Tanaka NYY (at SEA) – Tanaka’s best start of the season was his last turn, putting up zeros for 7.2 innings while racking up a season-high nine strikeouts. Most impressive is that the big-K game came against the Angels, a club that is the toughest to strike out – and it’s not even close – in all of baseball. He’s on a little bit of a hopscotch pattern right now, trading great starts with total clunkers. If ever there was a time to invest, that time now.
Trevor Bauer CLE (at OAK) – It seems that a lot of pitchers are coming off their best or worst performances to date this season, and in Bauer’s case, it’s the former. The right-hander made a mockery of the mighty Blue Jays, striking out 13 batters against two walks, five hits and two runs over 139.1 innings pitched. It was the first time in 10 starts that Bauer had struck out more than six batters in a game, and the high walk rate the characterized his first few years in the league have returned. Over the eight-start stretch, he recorded a 5.36 ERA and miserable 36:28 K:BB over 47.0 innings, with eight homers allowed. The gem against Toronto was certainly encouraging and his opponent today is not daunting, but there is a good chance that the Bauer who shows up in Oakland looks more like the one of the previous eight games than the one who dismantled Toronto.
Julio Teheran ATL (at ARI) – Teheran has managed just 14.0 innings combined over his last three starts, compiling a total of 12 strikeouts over that stretch. He tossed 90 pitches in his first game back from the disabled list, suggesting that he could be stretched out to the century mark in today’s game, but beware that Teheran hasn’t thrown more than 90 pitches in a game since before the All-Star break, as he threw just 146 total pitches in the two starts prior to his landing on the DL. His first start back was decent yet unspectacular in every statistical way, as he lasted 5.0 innings while giving up three runs on six hits and three walks with five strikeouts in the contest. Teheran has only scored more than a dozen points (DraftKings) in one of his last six starts, and his return to form following injury merely adds to the pessimism.
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (vs. NYY)
Marco Estrada TOR (vs. LAA)
Matt Shoemaker LAA (at TOR)
Tanner Roark WAS (vs. BAL)
Jerad Eickhoff PHI (at CHW)
Rich Hill LAD (vs. SF) – Hill belongs in the Raise section based on merit alone, but the fact that he is coming back from a lengthy (and extended) stint on the disabled list and that his blister has been a recurring problem, there is a very good chance that Hill will have a strict pitch limit in this game. On top of the pitch-count restriction, it could take time for Hill to shake off the rust, particularly considering that spring training was not enough time for him to prepare initially for the season and for his first week or two Hill was still getting into game shape. Throw in that he hasn’t made a rehab appearance in the minors on account of the injury, and the uncertainty level for Hill’s first start in nearly six weeks is through the roof.
Tyler Anderson COL (at MIL)
Kendall Graveman OAK (vs. CLE)
Matt Boyd DET (at MIN)
Tim Adleman CIN (vs. TEX)
Zach Davies MIL (vs. COL)
James Shields CHW (vs. PHI)
Dillon Gee KC (at MIA)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Matt Andriese TB (vs. BOS)
Tyler Duffey MIN (vs. DET)
Wade Miley BAL (at WAS)
Paul Clemens SD (vs. CHC)
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