Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, August 31st

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-09-01 01:42:48

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Editor’s Note: David Phelps has been scratched from tonight’s start.

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Sale	CWS	DET	386.1	3.28	2.96	1.05	64.3%	29.1%	5.1%	0.98	1.12
Verlander	DET	CWS	314.1	3.35	3.77	1.05	35.0%	24.0%	6.2%	1.03	0.75
Smyly	TBR	BOS	216.2	4.28	3.75	1.21	50.0%	25.1%	6.7%	1.58	0.68
Wright	BOS	TBR	225.1	3.47	4.54	1.24		18.6%	8.6%	0.88	1.13
Hernandez	SEA	TEX	319.1	3.38	3.74	1.20	81.0%	22.1%	8.0%	1.01	2.00
Perez	TEX	SEA	242.1	4.46	4.83	1.42	37.5%	12.6%	8.5%	0.67	2.21
Detwiler	OAK	HOU	85	6.78	5.21	1.88		14.0%	11.3%	1.48	1.39
Fiers	HOU	OAK	319.1	4.00	4.04	1.28		21.3%	7.1%	1.32	1.03
Hoffman	COL	LAD	10	8.10	5.99	1.80		10.6%	10.6%	2.70	1.07
Miller	ARI	SFG	274.2	4.06	4.45	1.37	21.1%	18.7%	9.1%	0.85	1.35
Moore	SFG	ARI	224.2	4.37	4.58	1.34		19.2%	8.7%	1.24	0.92
Finnegan	CIN	LAA	195.2	4.09	4.75	1.31		19.8%	11.3%	1.61	1.16
Nolasco	LAA	CIN	192	5.53	4.40	1.43	16.7%	17.8%	6.0%	1.31	1.11
Sanchez	TOR	BAL	248.2	3.08	3.99	1.20		18.9%	8.8%	0.72	2.64
Gallardo	BAL	TOR	276	4.17	4.94	1.49	50.0%	15.2%	9.8%	0.88	1.48
Gonzalez	WAS	PHI	324	4.00	3.92	1.37	46.7%	22.3%	8.6%	0.67	1.71
Morgan	PHI	WAS	164.2	5.47	4.66	1.42		16.1%	5.3%	1.86	0.73
Phelps	MIA	NYM	190.2	3.68	3.88	1.26	42.9%	22.3%	8.1%	0.80	1.23
Colon	NYM	MIA	346.1	3.85	4.17	1.24	42.1%	16.5%	3.6%	1.12	1.22
Dean	MIN	CLE	49	6.24	4.48	1.59		17.7%	7.4%	1.65	1.24
Kluber	CLE	MIN	397.2	3.30	3.23	1.05	57.1%	26.7%	5.6%	0.86	1.25
Clemens	SDP	ATL	42.2	5.06	5.09	1.55		17.1%	10.4%	2.11	0.96
Wisler	ATL	SDP	239	4.82	4.83	1.37		16.2%	7.7%	1.43	0.86
Vogelsong	PIT	CHC	185.2	4.22	4.58	1.42	52.6%	18.1%	9.7%	1.11	1.25
Hammel	CHC	PIT	310.2	3.51	3.84	1.15	47.4%	22.5%	6.6%	1.22	1.09
Weaver	STL	MIL	15	3.60	3.80	1.47		24.6%	7.7%	1.80	1.50
Garza	MIL	STL	222.1	5.38	4.76	1.58	35.0%	15.1%	8.5%	1.25	1.53
Cessa	NYY	KCR	30.2	4.11	4.34	1.08		16.8%	6.4%	2.05	1.27
Kennedy	KCR	NYY	322	3.94	3.80	1.24	47.6%	24.2%	7.4%	1.65	0.84

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Corey Kluber CLE (vs. MIN) – The string of quality tarts is now up to nine consecutive games for Kluber, and over that time he has pulled down a 1.75 ERA and 64:17 K:BB in 61.2 innings. He went at least seven full frames in five straight contests but hasn’t reached that mark in any of his last four games, despite throwing 112-113 pitches in each of his last three starts. He held his own against the tough lineups of the Blue Jays and Rangers over his last two turns, making today’s meeting with the Twins – who have the worst record in the American League – seem like a cakewalk. He has only faced the Twins once this season (back in mid-May) despite their residing in his own division, and that game was less than rosy, with four runs scored on seven hits and three walks over 6.2 innings of work. He was in the midst of a tough stretch at that time, and odds are that he will be able to improve upon those stats in today’s meeting.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (at PHI) – After a horrific month of June that included three or more runs allowed in each of six different starts and a composite ERA of 6.95 over 33.2 innings, I wasn’t sure if Gio would enter the realm of Raise status again this season, but he has turned it on of late and today faces a soft lineup in Philly who is extra vulnerable to left-handed pitching, with just a .355 slugging percentage against southpaws this season. July was excellent, with Gio spinning five quality starts and coming one out shy of another, though his August has been up and down. He is coming off one of the “up” starts, a home matchup with the Rockies that involved just one run and five baserunners allowed over 6.0 innings. There is downside here, as the risk of blowup is palpable, but there is risk in virtually every arm in this tier.

Jason Hammel CHC (vs. PIT) – Two starts ago, Hammel was clobbered in Colorado to the tune of 10 runs (six earned) on 10 hits and two walks over 3.1 innings, succumbing to the terrors of pitching at altitude. Prior to that outing, Hammel was one fire, with no runs allowed in either of his first three starts and a seven-game run with a 1.26 ERA and 40:13 K:BB over 43 innings. However, that run was bookended on the front side by another 10 run outing, this time with all of the runs being earned, including an astonishing five homers allowed against the modest offense of the Mets. That start was at the start of July, so it’s ancient history by now, but in his latest turn Hammel lasted just 2.1 innings against the Dodgers, with three runs allowed on five hits. He was yanked after just 39 pitches, so the fact that Hammel is starting today’s game on short rest is less of a concern, though any alteration to his start-to-start rhythm has the potential to throw a wrench into his performance.

Aaron Sanchez TOR (at BAL) – The Blue Jays sent Sanchez down to the minors in order to skip a start and apply the brakes on his mounting innings-count, but he was recalled to make tonight’s start against the Royals and will stay with the big club as rosters expand for September. Sanchez has been roughed up a bit in two of his last three starts, including five runs (four earned) given up to the Indians in his last turn, a start that lasted just 4.0 innings. He has a modest K:BB of 17:7 in 24 innings over his last four starts, with a 4.50 ERA, though he has kept the ball in yard over that stretch. He faced the Orioles three starts ago, giving up two runs on just four hits in 7.0 innings of work, though he struck out only three batters against the high-K lineup of the Orioles. Strikeouts aren’t the driver of Sanchez’s value so much as his ability to go deep into games, but his attempts to do so today will be stunted by the high-profile offense of the O’s in addition to the Jays’ desire to limit his workload.

Ian Kennedy KC (vs. NYY) – His vulnerability to the longball – Kennedy has given up 28 homers already this season – leaves IPK at the mercy of opposing offenses. If the Yankees get runners on base before the inevitable homers arrive, then it could be a short outing with plenty of runs tacked on to Kennedy’s baseball card. However, that hasn’t been the case for more than a month, as Kennedy seems to have cured his illness for the longball, at least temporarily. He gave up four homers to the Indians back on July 20, putting the exclamation point on a nine-game string that involved 18 home runs allowed, including at least one longball in every outing. Since that fateful start against the Indians, however, Kennedy has given up just two homers over seven starts and 44.1 innings pitched. He hasn’t given up more than two tallies in any of his previous six starts – five of which involved one or zero runs allowed. The two-run start was in his last game, a turn that lasted just 5.1 innings and involved nine hits allowed, but the fact that he was facing the top-ranked offense of the Red Sox effectively gives Kennedy a mulligan.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Sale	0.263	3.29	0.280	3.28	0.270	0.778	0.296	3.02	0.224	107.55	29.1%
Verlander	0.274	2.94	0.277	3.77	0.251	0.703	0.259	3.55	0.215	107.43	24.0%
Smyly	0.288	4.67	0.319	4.18	0.275	0.774	0.287	4.21	0.242	96.32	25.1%
Wright	0.273	3.53	0.307	3.43	0.245	0.720	0.267	4.05	0.231	92.05	18.6%
Hernandez	0.306	3.69	0.294	3.08	0.258	0.741	0.278	3.94	0.232	99.53	22.1%
Perez	0.245	2.17	0.340	5.04	0.256	0.732	0.299	4.18	0.271	91.95	12.6%
Detwiler	0.298	2.73	0.443	8.95	0.247	0.755	0.352	5.81	0.321	0.00	14.0%
Fiers	0.300	3.84	0.338	4.14	0.250	0.704	0.292	4.27	0.251	94.25	21.3%
Stripling	0.256	2.00	0.335	6.02	0.271	0.784	0.280	3.88	0.245	77.50	17.0%
Hoffman					0.252	0.746	0.294	7.55	0.31	0.00	10.6%
Miller	0.348	4.37	0.282	3.77	0.264	0.741	0.298	4.00	0.254	94.70	18.7%
Moore	0.305	5.28	0.323	4.05	0.267	0.776	0.286	4.53	0.251	98.13	19.2%
Finnegan	0.299	2.45	0.332	4.62	0.246	0.702	0.244	5.31	0.226	69.87	19.8%
Nolasco	0.316	4.23	0.372	6.77	0.251	0.715	0.327	4.34	0.289	0.00	17.8%
Sanchez	0.331	3.74	0.234	2.45	0.262	0.775	0.266	3.81	0.226	0.00	18.9%
Gallardo	0.343	5.00	0.321	3.42	0.258	0.780	0.305	4.39	0.271	95.20	15.2%
Gonzalez	0.270	3.50	0.323	4.15	0.253	0.677	0.323	3.40	0.257	96.60	22.3%
Morgan	0.304	3.76	0.382	5.98	0.264	0.774	0.309	5.24	0.291	0.00	16.1%
Phelps	0.330	4.41	0.266	3.14	0.242	0.709	0.296	3.55	0.24	41.03	22.3%
Colon	0.321	3.74	0.310	3.96	0.262	0.703	0.304	3.88	0.273	83.05	16.5%
Dean	0.265	7.36	0.409	5.92	0.269	0.740	0.349	4.97	0.312	0.00	17.7%
Kluber	0.303	3.54	0.249	3.08	0.248	0.714	0.286	3.03	0.222	101.10	26.7%
Clemens	0.310	2.50	0.414	6.93	0.253	0.688	0.281	6.20	0.269	0.00	17.1%
Wisler	0.371	5.38	0.293	4.32	0.237	0.682	0.284	4.90	0.262	0.00	16.2%
Vogelsong	0.381	6.69	0.290	2.37	0.249	0.743	0.288	4.52	0.252	62.54	18.1%
Hammel	0.315	3.33	0.292	3.64	0.259	0.724	0.272	3.97	0.231	87.91	22.5%
Weaver					0.251	0.713	0.341	4.62	0.283	92.00	24.6%
Garza	0.373	5.68	0.335	5.12	0.261	0.762	0.318	4.80	0.288	0.00	15.1%
Cessa	0.298	2.92	0.321	4.91	0.262	0.717	0.207	5.73	0.217	47.90	16.8%
Kennedy	0.331	4.09	0.325	3.79	0.251	0.735	0.283	4.59	0.242	99.18	24.2%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

David Phelps MIA (at NYM) – Just when it looked like Phelps had built his way up to a starter’s workload, he gets yanked after just 3.2 innings and 72 pitches against the Padres in his last start. He had thrown 90-plus pitches in each of his previous three turns and had struck out 17 batters across 11.1 innings of the two games leading up to the start against the Padres, so it was a bit curious to see his day end so early despite giving up just two hits and three walks in the contest. The Mets pose only a slightly larger threat than the Padres, and the fact that Phelps recorded another six Ks despite his brief outing bodes well for his K count going forward, but getting roughed up by the light-hitting Padres is an obvious knock against him. Phelps could earn another stay at the Raise Hotel, as his recent penchant for strikeouts potentially overshadows the risk of another brief outing, but he is on thin ice and will tumble down the Call list if he stumbles tonight.

Luke Weaver STL (at MIL) – His first 15.0 innings in the bigs have been less than pristine, including three homers allowed in his first three starts at the big league level, but behind the curtain lurks a pitcher whose volatility might play into favor on a thin evening slate. He was a strikeout machine this season in the minors, whiffing 92 batters in 83.0 innings across Double- and Triple-A (mostly Double-A), with just 12 walks total for an incredible 7.7 K/BB. Playing the Brewers greatly increases his strikeout ceiling for tonight’s game and the right-hander has already struck out more than a batter-per-inning in his first three starts. His pitch efficiency has left something to be desired thus far, though in his last turn Weaver covered 6.0 innings against the A’s with 96 pitches, so the former first-round pick (no. 27 overall in 2014) could be ready to turn the corner.

Luis Cessa NYY (at KC) – Cessa was transitioned from the bullpen to the starting rotation two turns ago, a decision that was made following a five-run outing over 3.0 frames of relief work, and he has posted back-to-back quality starts since the move. He shut down the Angels for 6.0 scoreless innings two starts ago and then recorded a baseline quality start against Baltimore in his last turn, a game that got his pitch count up to 99 throws. The extended outing against the O’s was a good sign for his pitch count in today’s matchup. He pitched well in 15 games (14 starts) in Triple-A this season, compiling a 3.03 ERA, 8.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 over 77.1 innings, numbers that paint the picture of a decent back-end starter rather than one worth investing heavy funds. That said, he might make for a solid option as a cheap SP2 on multi-pitcher websites (he costs just $4400 on DraftKings), facing a light-hitting KC lineup that no longer has the strikeout-reducing magic that it carried last season.

Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. MIA)

Brandon Finnegan CIN (at LAA)

Ryan Vogelsong PIT (at CHC)

Rich Hill LAD (at COL) – For most pitchers, an assignment against the Rockies in Coors Field is essentially a death knell to ratios, but in the case of a curveball-heavy pitcher like Hill, the results can be devastating. His first game with L.A. (finally) was an unquestioned success, with six scoreless frames with no walks against the Giants in his new home, but Colorado could pose a different type of challenge than a rivalry game. Lucky for Hill, the Rox lean heavily to the left – especially with Trevor Story temporarily out of the picture – giving him an easier path through the mountains.

Paul Clemens SD (at ATL)

Matt Wisler ATL (vs. SD)

Ricky Nolasco LAA (vs. CIN)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Jeff Hoffman COL (vs. LAD)

Yovani Gallardo BAL (vs. TOR)

Matt Garza MIL (vs. STL)

Pat Dean MIN (at CLE)

Adam Morgan PHI (vs. WAS)

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