Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, July 27th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-07-28 01:18:26

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Eflin	PHI	MIA	50.1	3.40	4.92	1.05		12.8%	3.9%	1.07	0.96
Conley	MIA	PHI	177.2	3.65	4.20	1.28		21.8%	8.6%	0.86	0.94
Strasburg	WAS	CLE	248	3.16	2.90	1.06	52.4%	30.4%	6.0%	0.98	1.19
Carrasco	CLE	WAS	269.1	3.21	3.02	1.06		27.8%	6.2%	1.00	1.66
Perdomo	SDP	TOR	76.2	6.93	3.99	1.84		16.4%	7.5%	1.41	2.82
Estrada	TOR	SDP	291.1	3.06	4.49	1.03	27.8%	20.0%	8.2%	1.17	0.64
Fulmer	DET	BOS	89.2	2.41	3.99	1.10		22.1%	8.2%	0.70	1.70
Rodriguez	BOS	DET	163.1	4.57	4.40	1.35		18.1%	7.4%	1.32	1.08
McCarthy	LAD	TBR	45.1	3.77	2.85	0.97	35.0%	31.4%	6.3%	1.99	0.98
Straily	CIN	SFG	131	4.19	4.82	1.22	14.3%	19.3%	10.4%	1.10	0.80
Bumgarner	SFG	CIN	361	2.62	3.12	1.01	47.6%	27.5%	5.2%	0.87	1.09
Gray	COL	BAL	143.1	4.52	3.64	1.29		24.9%	7.7%	1.00	1.53
Bundy	BAL	COL	46.1	3.30	4.19	1.53		20.0%	7.3%	1.17	0.68
Paxton	SEA	PIT	127.1	4.03	4.13	1.47	50.0%	19.8%	8.0%	0.92	1.61
Cole	PIT	SEA	286.1	2.70	3.49	1.16	28.6%	23.1%	5.7%	0.44	1.58
Wainwright	STL	NYM	153.1	3.64	4.03	1.22	84.2%	18.9%	5.6%	0.47	1.59
Verrett	NYM	STL	115	3.91	4.57	1.27		17.2%	9.1%	1.33	1.28
Ranaudo	CWS	CHC	19	9.47	6.30	1.89		13.8%	17.0%	1.42	0.62
Hammel	CHC	CWS	278	3.59	3.75	1.14	47.4%	22.9%	6.4%	1.23	1.08
Manaea	OAK	TEX	80	4.61	4.18	1.26		19.5%	5.9%	1.24	1.13
Darvish	TEX	OAK	26	3.12	2.98	1.23	55.6%	35.5%	10.0%	0.69	1.32
Bradley	ARI	MIL	110.2	4.88	4.78	1.51		19.5%	12.2%	1.14	1.65
Nelson	MIL	ARI	296.1	3.83	4.44	1.32		18.5%	9.3%	0.94	1.64
Foltynewicz	ATL	MIN	148.1	4.91	4.21	1.46		20.2%	7.2%	1.76	0.88
Duffey	MIN	ATL	146.1	4.67	4.00	1.40		19.4%	6.6%	1.17	1.73
Tanaka	NYY	HOU	283	3.28	3.58	1.04	66.7%	21.5%	4.6%	1.14	1.50
McCullers	HOU	NYY	196	3.26	3.67	1.32		26.5%	10.3%	0.55	1.76
Shoemaker	LAA	KCR	248	4.25	3.80	1.25	44.4%	22.1%	5.6%	1.34	0.94
Duffy	KCR	LAA	231.1	3.70	4.04	1.25	57.1%	21.4%	7.6%	1.09	0.96

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. CIN) – Bummer possesses one of the highest floors in game, as he hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs in a game all season and has pitched 6.0 o more innings in 19 of 21 turns. He has only walked more than two batters four times and he hasn’t given up more than two homers in any ballgame. The southpaw has yet to crash through the floor this season, bottoming out at 11.85 points in any one start (and that was way back in mid-April). He also has the upside to spike 56 fantasy points (DraftKings), as he did three starts ago in a 14-K shutout of the DIamondbacks, with one hit and one walk being the only baserunners in the ballgame. His big games have been interspersed through his game log, and coming off a pair of mediocre games I have a hunch he’s due.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (at CLE) – It finally happened. Stras was finally hung with an L on his record, giving up a season-high six runs in six innings against the Dodgers, though his 10 strikeouts on the day spared his fantasy line (16.70 points on DK). Since coming off the disabled list, Stras had reeled off a three-start run with a total of two runs and five hits allowed over a span of 21.2 innings, and we can excuse the lone scuff in an otherwise polished set of starts this season. He’s very similar to Bumgarner this season in terms of ceiling and floor, with his last start being the first where he allowed more than four runs and with his having cracked double-digit Ks eight times in 18 turns this season. The hit rate is absurdly low (6.5 H/9), the K rate is absurdly high (11.0 K/9), and despite his hiccup against the Dodgers, Stras has shown no indication of slowing down.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Carlos Carrasco CLE (vs. WAS) – Both of the All-In options are on the early slate of games and third-ranked Carrasco joins them. Carrasco is on a roll worthy of All-In status, with a 1.37 ERA across his last seven starts, with a 45:15 K:BB in 46 innings. Once again, this is a case of a pitcher with a high floor, as Carrasco has only given up more than two earned runs in three of his 14 starts this season and has maxed out at four earnies allowed in a game. He has a ceiling that can match Stras and Bummer, but the infrequency of Carrasco’s impact games puts him a rung below the others on today’s value ladder. He struck out 14 Blue Jays in a game at the end of June, but Carrasco hasn’t punched out more than eight hitters in any other start.

Yu Darvish TEX (vs. OAK) – Will the Rangers unleash Darvish for more than 100 pitches in today’s outing? He has gone 90-plus throws in each of his last two starts, striking out 20 batters in 10.1 innings. If he gets close to a full workload, then Darvish could steamroll through the A’s lineup and put up a huge fantasy score, but he also runs the risk of imploding via walks, leading to crooked numbers and/or a short outing. The strikeout upside is immense, giving Darvish a relatively high floor for a pitcher whose pitch-count might still be limited, but if the leash is extended then he has the upside to put up the highest score of the day. Darvish ranks at the top of the list for pitchers on the evening slate (nine games starting after 7:00 EST).

Danny Duffy KC (vs. LAA) – Duffy has been a full-fledged starter since the beginning of June, during which time he has recorded a 3.09 ERA and 71:13 K:BB in 64 innings. He was still building the pitch count through the early weeks of summer, yet even with a 90-pitch cap the lefty was was still putting up quality starts and high K counts thanks to extreme pitch-count efficiency. His pitch count has cleared the century mark in each of his last six starts, and over the last five turns he has compiled a ridiculous 34:4 K:BB in 36 frames. There’s a lot to like here, starting with the peripheral stats and extending to his fantasy ratios, but Duffy might still be fighting to earn the respect of some gamers.

Adam Wainwright STL (at NYM) – Waino just continues to rack up quality starts, with eight of them in his last nine turns and a 2.37 ERA over that span. He has recently added a strikeout component to his value proposition while maintaining his characteristically low walk rate, with a 59:15 K:BB in 60.2 innings over that same nine-game stretch. Be careful, as Wainwright’s name-value and reputation might boost his price tag and his ownership rate higher than it deserves; he should still be considered a relatively low-strikeout pitcher who can keep runs off the scoreboard when his command is sharp.

Lance McCullers HOU (vs. NYY) – This ranking is all about the upside. McCullers goes big in the strikeout category, with 90 Ks already this season in 70.1 innings of work, including nine or more strikeouts in four of his 12 starts this season. He has also walked far too many batters, including four or more free passes in half of his starts this season, and the fact that he has maintained a low ERA (3.33) despite a hit-per-inning and 5.4 walks-per-nine is due largely to an unsustainable avoidance of home runs, with just two homers allowed this year. His control can be (and has been) much better than this, so optimism remains that he can figure it out and become a force to be reckoned with at the top of the Houston rotation.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Eflin	0.297	3.09	0.282	3.67	0.262	0.703	0.241	4.19	0.232	0.02	12.8%
Conley	0.321	4.04	0.304	3.55	0.253	0.677	0.294	3.84	0.24	0.01	21.8%
Strasburg	0.251	2.50	0.291	3.84	0.254	0.742	0.291	2.90	0.217	0.01	30.4%
Carrasco	0.278	2.94	0.282	3.43	0.246	0.720	0.283	3.19	0.22	0.01	27.8%
Perdomo	0.368	6.93	0.398	6.92	0.260	0.783	0.377	4.84	0.331	0.00	16.4%
Estrada	0.280	3.22	0.261	2.86	0.239	0.684	0.211	4.28	0.193	0.00	20.0%
Fulmer	0.275	1.93	0.266	2.83	0.274	0.776	0.255	3.52	0.208	0.01	22.1%
Rodriguez	0.357	4.82	0.317	4.50	0.269	0.773	0.291	4.51	0.26	0.01	18.1%
Moore	0.309	5.33	0.339	4.44	0.247	0.715	0.300	4.65	0.266	0.01	18.8%
McCarthy	0.296	2.89	0.281	4.39	0.242	0.703	0.232	4.31	0.201	0.04	31.4%
Straily	0.312	5.05	0.288	3.27	0.265	0.738	0.240	4.60	0.213	0.01	19.3%
Bumgarner	0.228	2.42	0.271	2.66	0.247	0.716	0.274	2.92	0.213	0.01	27.5%
Gray	0.301	3.86	0.333	5.15	0.262	0.772	0.319	3.68	0.251	0.01	24.9%
Bundy	0.339	2.77	0.355	3.98	0.271	0.782	0.357	4.22	0.299	0.01	20.0%
Paxton	0.415	5.70	0.296	3.65	0.254	0.716	0.330	3.78	0.276	0.01	19.8%
Cole	0.287	2.32	0.280	3.05	0.251	0.744	0.314	2.74	0.245	0.01	23.1%
Wainwright	0.311	4.16	0.287	3.28	0.241	0.711	0.311	3.03	0.258	0.01	18.9%
Verrett	0.307	3.92	0.326	3.90	0.263	0.761	0.254	4.87	0.235	0.00	17.2%
Ranaudo	0.322	9.28			0.247	0.739	0.279	6.50	0.26	0.00	13.8%
Hammel	0.322	3.60	0.287	3.59	0.251	0.702	0.271	3.95	0.23	0.00	22.9%
Manaea	0.254	2.60	0.331	5.17	0.262	0.746	0.293	4.10	0.256	0.01	19.5%
Darvish	0.299	4.15	0.252	2.08	0.249	0.702	0.328	2.41	0.212	0.07	35.5%
Bradley	0.345	4.07	0.327	5.69	0.252	0.707	0.292	4.78	0.25	0.00	19.5%
Nelson	0.356	5.03	0.276	2.85	0.264	0.738	0.281	4.34	0.243	0.00	18.5%
Foltynewicz	0.387	5.73	0.335	4.26	0.244	0.703	0.319	4.99	0.282	0.00	20.2%
Duffey	0.302	3.00	0.369	6.30	0.250	0.674	0.323	4.09	0.277	0.01	19.4%
Tanaka	0.280	3.40	0.280	3.16	0.251	0.754	0.257	3.66	0.224	0.00	21.5%
McCullers	0.287	3.18	0.313	3.34	0.247	0.728	0.320	3.08	0.236	0.01	26.5%
Shoemaker	0.304	4.41	0.333	4.06	0.266	0.726	0.302	4.00	0.257	0.01	22.1%
Duffy	0.257	2.27	0.329	4.07	0.248	0.708	0.294	4.07	0.247	0.00	21.4%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Matt Shoemaker LAA (at KC) – Shoemaker has pulled off an incredible 115:23 K:BB this season in 112.2 innings pitched. He hasn’t given up more than two walks in a game since April, has cleared 7.0 or more innings seven times in his last 12 starts, and has three different games on his resume with double-digit strikeouts over 7.0 or more scoreless innings. He tossed a 13-K shutout just two starts ago, and he has been a force to be reckoned with ever since he altered his approach back in mid-May, opting to double the dosage of his best pitch – the splitter – with fantastic results. He’s throwing the split more than 40 percent of the time now, and when Shoemaker is on, batters have no idea whether an incoming pitch will be a well-located fastball or a trap-door split that hits the dirt.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (at HOU) – Tanaka is an excellent choice for cash games, with a high floor but low ceiling that results in a trustworthy range of fantasy points. The ceiling is limited, as Tanaka has yet to clear 30 points (DK) in any start this season, but he has busted 20 points in about half of his turns and has registered at least seven points in even his worst starts. The Astros might offer theoretical upside in the strikeout department, but Tanaka has yet to top seven Ks in any game this season.

Gerrit Cole PIT (vs. SEA) – Cole came back after a rough first start off the disabled list by spinning a vintage Cole gem against the Phillies in his last turn, with one run allowed over 6.0 innings, including seven strikeouts and just one walk allowed. Many of Cole’s ratios are troubling, from a K rate that has cratered to a hit rate that has skyrocketed, and the fact that he has kept the ball in the yard – just three homers allowed in 78.1 innings – could be a skill that he has developed or could be doomed for serious regression (likely a mix of both). He’s similar to Tanaka in that Cole has yet to top seven strikeouts in a start this season, and his ability to limit the walks and homers will only get him so far in terms of points on DFS.

Jon Gray COL (at BAL) – Gray has been a one-man wrecking crew this month, posting a 2.05 ERA and 28:9 K:BB in 26.1 innings across four starts, two of which were in the pitcher hell of Coors Field. Somewhat miraculously, Gray has actually pitched slightly better at home this year than on the road, but gamers can be excused if they save him for their rosters when he’s pitching at sea level. Baltimore has been more miss than hit lately, but when they hit, they hit hard.

Michael Fulmer DET (at BOS) – Ok rookie, here’s the true test. Fulmer has been incredible through 15 starts in the big leagues, but now he is faced with the ultimate challenge: facing the Red Sox in Fenway. Fulmer is coming off a rough start in which he gave up five runs (four earned) to the White Sox, the first time that he had allowed more than two runs in a game since mid-May, a string of 10 starts between blowups. These Sox are more formidable than the pale hose and Fulmer has kept the Ks to a minimum – five or fewer in seven of his last eight games – so he recommendation is to stay away unless really trying to zig while others zag.,

Adam Conley MIA (vs. PHI)

Brandon McCarthy LAD (vs. TB)

Jason Hammel CHC (vs. CHW)

Matt Moore TB (at LAD)

Sean Manaea OAK (at TEX)

Archie Bradley ARI (at MIL)

Jimmy Nelson MIL (vs. ARI)

Mike Foltynewicz ATL (at MIN)

James Paxton SEA (at PIT)

Dylan Bundy BAL (vs. COL)

Dan Straily CIN (at SF)

Zach Eflin PHI (at MIA)