Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, September 14th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-09-15 03:14:21

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Legend & FAQ

Wednesday, September 14th

PITCHER	TEAM	OPP	Seas	L21	H/A	Avg	Seas	L7	L/R	H/A	Avg	FP/Opp	PEN	PARK	ML	OppR
Alex Cobb	TBR	TOR	1.0	2.0		1.5	2.48	2.61	0.58	0.58	1.56	0.96	20	1.15	166	5.20
Marco Estrada	TOR	TBR	0.8	3.0	9.3	4.4	2.66	2.04	0.70	0.65	1.51	2.89	4	1.15	-181	3.80
Jon Lester	CHC	STL	0.7	1.0	11.9	4.5	2.81	2.18	0.65	0.65	1.57	2.89	25	0.89	-134	3.50
Carlos Martinez	STL	CHC	0.4	1.0	10.2	3.9	2.72	2.10	0.63	0.63	1.52	2.55	14	0.89	124	4.00
Luis Perdomo	SDP	SFG	0.6	3.0	0.0	1.2	2.51	2.49	0.56	0.58	1.53	0.77	22	1.02	232	4.74
Madison Bumgarner	SFG	SDP	0.8	5.0	15.6	7.1	2.53	2.88	0.56	0.59	1.64	4.34	30	1.02	-255	2.76
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	NYY	0.4	1.0	15.1	5.5	2.62	1.99	0.55	0.61	1.44	3.81	26	1.06	-179	3.18
Michael Pineda	NYY	LAD	0.9	3.0	10.4	4.8	2.41	2.54	0.62	0.57	1.53	3.10	7	1.06	165	4.32
Robert Gsellman	NYM	WAS	0.3	1.0	8.1	3.1	2.45	2.67	0.57	0.56	1.56	1.99	17	0.96	147	5.03
Tanner Roark	WAS	NYM	0.5	3.0	7.2	3.6	2.76	2.37	0.62	0.61	1.59	2.24	6	0.96	-160	3.97
Steven Brault	PIT	PHI	0.4	1.0	6.7	2.7	2.62	2.45	0.58	0.62	1.56	1.72	19	0.86	-120	4.09
Jake Thompson	PHI	PIT	1.0	0.0	9.0	3.3	2.29	2.17	0.54	0.52	1.38	2.42	15	0.86	111	4.41
Tyler Duffey	MIN	DET	1.0	4.0	9.1	4.7	2.57	2.35	0.59	0.63	1.53	3.07	24	0.97	154	5.37
Anibal Sanchez	DET	MIN	0.8	2.0	0.0	0.9	2.53	2.05	0.60	0.61	1.45	0.64	13	0.97	-167	4.13
Kevin Gausman	BAL	BOS	0.9	2.0	0.0	1.0	2.58	2.83	0.65	0.68	1.68	0.57	1	1.20	136	4.93
Rick Porcello	BOS	BAL	0.7	2.0	12.2	5.0	2.87	3.64	0.67	0.60	1.94	2.55	3	1.20	-148	4.07
Jose Fernandez	MIA	ATL	0.4	2.0	12.1	4.9	2.38	2.24	0.54	0.53	1.42	3.41	21	1.06	-136	3.25
Julio Teheran	ATL	MIA	0.8	4.0	11.1	5.3	2.34	2.91	0.54	0.51	1.58	3.35	28	1.06	126	3.75
Junior Guerra	MIL	CIN	0.5	1.0	7.5	3.0	2.70	2.44	0.59	0.64	1.59	1.90	18	0.96	-115	4.38
Tim Adleman	CIN	MIL	1.1	7.0	7.6	5.2	2.60	2.52	0.60	0.56	1.57	3.34	16	0.96	106	4.62
Sean Manaea	OAK	KCR	0.9	2.0	0.0	1.0	2.26	2.74	0.55	0.54	1.52	0.64	12	1.19	133	4.35
Yordano Ventura	KCR	OAK	0.8	2.0	10.7	4.5	2.35	2.28	0.59	0.54	1.44	3.11	5	1.19	-144	3.65
Josh Tomlin	CLE	CWS	1.3	6.0	10.0	5.8	2.68	2.57	0.65	0.72	1.65	3.48	8	0.95	103	4.32
Carlos Rodon	CWS	CLE	0.8	2.0	10.2	4.3	2.68	2.19	0.54	0.54	1.49	2.91	2	0.95	-111	4.18
Derek Holland	TEX	HOU	0.7	2.0	0.0	0.9	2.63	2.28	0.64	0.72	1.57	0.57	9	0.75	-146	3.63
Joe Musgrove	HOU	TEX	1.0	7.0		4.0	2.57	2.19	0.65	0.65	1.52	2.64	10	0.75	135	4.37
Jeff Hoffman	COL	ARI	1.3	0.0	5.6	2.3	2.85	2.34	0.67	0.79	1.66	1.37	29	1.19	130	5.41
Rubby De La Rosa	ARI	COL	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.2	2.67	3.26	0.61	0.60	1.78	0.11	27	1.19	-141	4.59
Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	LAA	0.9	5.0	10.3	5.4	2.60	3.31	0.61	0.61	1.78	3.03	11	0.93	105	4.35
Jhoulys Chacin	LAA	SEA	0.4	0.0	7.7	2.7	2.45	1.67	0.59	0.58	1.32	2.03	23	0.93	-114	4.15

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jose Fernandez MIA (at ATL) – Fern was on a string of modest K counts heading into his last start, so he rattled the cage with 14 strikeouts against three walks and just three hits in 7.0 scoreless innings against the Dodgers. It was a nice rebound coming off a brutal seven-run, 12-hit outing against Cleveland. The right-hander has had a pronounced home/road split this season: a 1.77 ERA and 142:28 K:BB in 15 starts (96.2 IP) at home; a 4.46 ERA and 96:25 K:BB in 12 starts (70.2 IP) on the road. His OPS against is nearly 200 points higher when traveling away from Miami, with a 547 OPS against at home versus 746 with packed bags. Case in point: the last time that Fern faced the Braves in Atlanta, they rocked him for nine runs (six earned) on eight hits (including two homers) in 5.2 frames back on July 2.

Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. SD) – Bum is part of a pitching-stocked early slate that includes Jon Lester, Clayton Kershaw and Carlos Martinez, giving the early-bird gamer a spread of options for the baseball breakfast buffet. Bumgarner has been slightly off recently, with a 5.59 ERA over his last five starts despite a 37:7 K:BB in 29.0 innings during that stretch. Typically a workhorse, Bumgarner has only pitched in the seventh inning of one of his past five starts, and a dent to his expected innings is also a dent to his DFS value. Luckily, the Padres are there to save the day by being Mad Bum’s whipping boys this afternoon. The best way out of a funk? Play the Padres. It’s recommended by four out of five doctors.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Julio Teheran ATL (vs. MIA) – Teheran is starting to round back into his pre-DL form, with a 1.89 ERA and 18:4 K:BB over 19.0 innings in his last three starts, even claiming a couple of Ws in the process to bring his pitiful record to 5-9 for the season. It helps that he is in the midst of a cush schedule, with the three strong starts coming against the weak offenses of the Padres, Phillies and Mets, respectively. Today he gets the Giancarlo-less Marlins, a team that is running the shell of Dee Gordon out there every day and whose middle of the order has been further depleted by the disappearing bat trick of Marcell Ozuna. If only the DFS sites gave points for quality starts in stead of wins, then Teheran would be in the clear.

Jon Lester CHC (at STL) – For the past six weeks, Lester has been unstoppable. The southpaw has a ridiculous 1.17 ERA over the span of his last eight starts, with a 53:11 K:BB in 53.2 innings, including just 36 hits allowed (just three homers). He hasn’t given up more than one run in a start in over a month, and the last time that a team did break through for multiple tallies, it was these Cardinals that managed a measly two runs over 6.0 frames. Lester has been good for at least six innings of low-run baseball at a K-per-inning without a hitch, keeping the walks down and the ball in the yard regardless of opponent, and the rival Cardinals are about to receive another lesson.

Clayton Kershaw (at NYY) – The price has come down a bit ($12700 at DraftKings, down $1k) since the overzealous value placed on Kershaw’s head last week, and though he can be expected to ramp up the pitch count over the next few starts, the heavy investment necessary to secure his services still vastly outweighs his likely value, given that Kersh threw just 66 pitches in his last start, not to mention that he only lasted 3.0 frames despite a light-hitting opponent (Miami), as he was shaking off the rust. Kershaw clears the Raise threshold because of what he can do with 80 pitches, but that’s before considering his cost, and in many corners the price tag on Kersh is too high to justify the investment.

Rick Porcello BOS (vs. BAL) – The majors’ first 20-game winner brings an impressive nine-start streak into tonight’s game, in which he has not just thrown a quality start in each outing, but Porcello has pitched 7.0 or more innings in each of those nine games, as well. He has scored 20 or more points in DraftKings in 11 of his last 12 starts and scored 17.35 points in the game that fell short. Somewhat miraculously, he’s only faced division foe Baltimore once this season, but the results of that game shine a light on Porcello’s downside in tonight’s game: five runs on six hits – including three home runs – with just three strikeouts over 6.0 innings of work.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

FAQ

Note: All stats shown here are totals for the opposing offense. These are not pitcher stats.

Season

Last 7 Days

Left/Right

Home/Away

Wednesday, September 14th

PITCHER	OPP	wOBA	K%	OPS	wOBA	K%	OPS	wOBA	K%	OPS	wOBA	K%	OPS
Alex Cobb	TOR	0.336	20.10%	0.779	0.301	23.00%	0.685	0.334	20.60%	0.776	0.350	19.20%	0.817
Marco Estrada	TBR	0.315	22.80%	0.729	0.333	26.00%	0.781	0.311	22.60%	0.720	0.320	21.70%	0.744
Jon Lester	STL	0.320	20.80%	0.742	0.301	20.90%	0.708	0.305	22.40%	0.700	0.319	19.60%	0.738
Carlos Martinez	CHC	0.321	22.90%	0.741	0.277	23.80%	0.647	0.320	23.00%	0.738	0.322	23.40%	0.745
Luis Perdomo	SFG	0.317	18.20%	0.731	0.348	15.40%	0.814	0.318	18.20%	0.736	0.320	17.70%	0.739
Madison Bumgarner	SDP	0.298	23.40%	0.688	0.284	22.80%	0.652	0.306	24.40%	0.704	0.293	23.70%	0.677
Clayton Kershaw	NYY	0.317	19.50%	0.733	0.330	20.80%	0.783	0.316	18.80%	0.727	0.327	19.60%	0.759
Michael Pineda	LAD	0.319	21.00%	0.735	0.288	26.50%	0.666	0.324	20.80%	0.750	0.317	21.00%	0.729
Robert Gsellman	WSN	0.318	20.90%	0.738	0.326	19.20%	0.756	0.314	21.00%	0.729	0.322	20.20%	0.747
Tanner Roark	NYM	0.310	21.30%	0.719	0.318	19.20%	0.759	0.308	20.80%	0.712	0.316	21.50%	0.733
Steven Brault	PHI	0.295	21.90%	0.681	0.297	28.90%	0.666	0.293	22.20%	0.670	0.291	22.30%	0.672
Jake Thompson	PIT	0.315	21.10%	0.725	0.332	18.40%	0.760	0.314	20.60%	0.725	0.309	22.20%	0.710
Tyler Duffey	DET	0.325	20.70%	0.754	0.291	22.40%	0.659	0.321	20.50%	0.746	0.327	19.50%	0.760
Anibal Sanchez	MIN	0.313	21.60%	0.727	0.289	26.00%	0.665	0.310	21.50%	0.719	0.305	23.30%	0.705
Kevin Gausman	BOS	0.335	18.50%	0.779	0.393	19.20%	0.940	0.335	18.00%	0.779	0.357	17.10%	0.834
Rick Porcello	BAL	0.322	22.00%	0.749	0.351	20.30%	0.827	0.333	21.70%	0.776	0.306	23.30%	0.710
Jose Fernandez	ATL	0.298	18.90%	0.685	0.357	18.60%	0.851	0.303	18.30%	0.699	0.299	18.80%	0.684
Julio Teheran	MIA	0.307	19.50%	0.708	0.287	21.20%	0.673	0.304	18.90%	0.702	0.313	20.10%	0.722
Junior Guerra	CIN	0.308	20.70%	0.713	0.326	18.10%	0.757	0.309	20.40%	0.716	0.318	20.90%	0.735
Tim Adleman	MIL	0.310	23.30%	0.715	0.342	21.90%	0.801	0.308	23.30%	0.712	0.302	23.20%	0.694
Sean Manaea	KCR	0.313	17.80%	0.724	0.314	22.60%	0.718	0.318	17.10%	0.737	0.324	16.60%	0.752
Yordano Ventura	OAK	0.304	18.40%	0.702	0.318	16.90%	0.729	0.304	18.70%	0.703	0.309	19.60%	0.714
Josh Tomlin	CHW	0.306	20.60%	0.705	0.356	18.10%	0.828	0.307	20.60%	0.707	0.309	20.50%	0.712
Carlos Rodon	CLE	0.321	19.50%	0.744	0.330	14.30%	0.757	0.320	19.40%	0.739	0.299	20.30%	0.690
Derek Holland	HOU	0.322	23.30%	0.746	0.305	24.60%	0.710	0.323	22.20%	0.749	0.322	24.30%	0.750
Joe Musgrove	TEX	0.323	20.00%	0.749	0.332	20.80%	0.770	0.323	19.50%	0.750	0.305	21.10%	0.706
Jeff Hoffman	ARI	0.320	21.70%	0.746	0.317	27.50%	0.749	0.315	21.60%	0.734	0.329	22.30%	0.770
Rubby De La Rosa	COL	0.330	21.10%	0.770	0.296	23.80%	0.688	0.336	20.60%	0.787	0.291	23.70%	0.676
Hisashi Iwakuma	LAA	0.310	17.90%	0.717	0.240	21.80%	0.545	0.312	17.90%	0.722	0.312	18.00%	0.721
Jhoulys Chacin	SEA	0.320	21.10%	0.741	0.383	18.60%	0.907	0.320	20.90%	0.742	0.318	20.40%	0.739

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Carlos Rodon CHW (vs. CLE) – The young southpaw has now run his streak of quality starts to seven straight, a stretch that has seen his ERA on the season drop by 0.69 runs. In those seven turns, Rodon has compiled a 1.85 ERA and 40:10 K:BB over 43.2 innings, maintaining his K-per-inning pace while the evolution of his walk rate from liability to asset continues to progress. He has allowed one or zero earned runs in five of the last seven starts, and though his bat-missing skills have been on display all season, the nine punchouts that Rodon collected against the Royals in his last start mark a season high.

Carlos Martinez STL (vs. CHC) – Martinez is coming off an odd start, giving up just two earned runs despite allowing nine hits to the Brewers. Most shocking was that the right-hander registered just one strikeout against the whiff-happy Brewers, especially considering that he had accumulated 24 strikeouts over 11.0 innings against the Brewers in just the past two months. Lower strikeout totals are to be expected, putting the onus on his ability to keep the basepaths clear and the scoreboard empty, but that will prove to be an improbable task against the high-powered offense of the Cubs. He’s faced their NL Central rivals three times so far this season, with a 5.00 ERA and 16:9 K:BB in 18.0 total innings, numbers that stand as a reasonable baseline for expected performance.

Tanner Roark WAS (vs. NYM) – Roark doesn’t offer much in the strikeout department, but his ability to keep runners from crossing the plate has been excellent. Roark carries a 2.85 ERA that he has maintained all season, but his proclivity for contact leaves him vulnerable to the whimsy of balls in play. That said, Roark has been oddly consistent with his hit counts, as opponents have finished with four-to-seven hits in 20 consecutive starts. He is coming off an impressive one-run, eight-K start against the Phillies, but it was also his most strikeouts that he had recorded in one game since the aberrant 15-K gem that Roark spun back on April 23.

Michael Pineda NYY (vs. LAD) – Pineda has turned in four disappointing games in a row and hasn’t recorded a quality start in any of his last five outings. Only once in those five games has he even completed the sixth inning, and in that game he coughed up five runs to offset any goodwill generated by his eight strikeouts that day. Pineda has allowed exactly five runs (all earned) in five of his last 12 starts, as his reputation for outstanding K:BB numbers but extremely hittable stuff continues to be supported by his performance.

Marco Estrada TOR (vs. TB)

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at LAA)

Yordano Ventura KC (vs. OAK)

Kevin Gausman BAL (at BOS)

Sean Manaea OAK (at KC)

Joe Musgrove HOU (vs. TEX)

Junior Guerra MIL (at CIN)

Tim Adleman CIN (vs. MIL)

Steven Brault PIT (at PHI)

Derek Holland TEX (at HOU)

Jake Thompson PHI (vs. PIT) – Thompson gets the benefit of facing a severely compromised Pittsburgh lineup. Starling Marte will likely be on the shelf for a ninth consecutive game, Andrew McCutchen hasn’t been himself this year (career-low 737 OPS) and Gregory Polanco has a 448 OPS in September. For his part, Thompson has compiled a 2.33 ERA across his last three starts – two of which were against the Nats – after starting with a 9.78 ERA after his first four turns, but his mix of too many walks with not enough strikeouts is a recipe for disaster.

Alex Cobb TB (at TOR)

Rubby De La Rosa ARI (vs. COL)

Josh Tomlin CLE (at CHW)

Robert Gsellman NYM (at WAS)