Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, September 21st
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
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Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weaver | STL | COL | 33.2 | 3.21 | 3.21 | 1.34 | 0.0% | 29.90% | 6.9% | 1.34 | 1.00 |
| Marquez | COL | STL | |||||||||
| McHugh | HOU | OAK | 368.0 | 4.23 | 3.94 | 1.36 | 42.9% | 21.10% | 6.4% | 1.05 | 1.23 |
| Mengden | OAK | HOU | 63.1 | 5.68 | 4.52 | 1.55 | 0.0% | 21.70% | 10.3% | 0.99 | 1.07 |
| Sanchez | TOR | SEA | 265.1 | 3.19 | 4.13 | 1.22 | 0.0% | 18.40% | 9.0% | 0.78 | 2.51 |
| Hernandez | SEA | TOR | 339.1 | 3.63 | 3.90 | 1.23 | 81.0% | 21.40% | 8.4% | 1.09 | 1.90 |
| Buchholz | BOS | BAL | 239.2 | 4.28 | 4.31 | 1.31 | 33.3% | 18.80% | 7.3% | 1.01 | 1.19 |
| Jimenez | BAL | BOS | 314.1 | 4.87 | 4.30 | 1.46 | 27.8% | 20.30% | 9.6% | 1.03 | 1.58 |
| Sale | CWS | PHI | 419.1 | 3.22 | 2.97 | 1.05 | 64.3% | 29.00% | 5.1% | 0.99 | 1.14 |
| Eickhoff | PHI | CWS | 231.1 | 3.50 | 4.04 | 1.16 | 0.0% | 20.70% | 5.6% | 1.21 | 1.00 |
| Weber | ATL | NYM | 59.2 | 5.13 | 3.56 | 1.27 | 0.0% | 15.90% | 3.7% | 1.21 | 2.37 |
| Colon | NYM | ATL | 372.1 | 3.67 | 4.21 | 1.22 | 42.1% | 16.30% | 3.6% | 1.11 | 1.21 |
| Kennedy | KCR | CLE | 345.2 | 3.93 | 3.88 | 1.25 | 47.6% | 23.90% | 7.7% | 1.61 | 0.83 |
| Kluber | CLE | KCR | 426.2 | 3.31 | 3.23 | 1.05 | 57.1% | 27.00% | 5.8% | 0.91 | 1.22 |
| Tanaka | NYY | TBR | 347.2 | 3.21 | 3.58 | 1.03 | 66.7% | 21.50% | 4.4% | 1.11 | 1.51 |
| Cobb | TBR | NYY | 17.2 | 3.06 | 4.09 | 1.08 | 42.9% | 16.90% | 5.6% | 1.02 | 2.00 |
| Scherzer | WAS | MIA | 439.1 | 2.79 | 2.82 | 0.92 | 60.0% | 31.00% | 4.9% | 1.09 | 0.75 |
| Koehler | MIA | WAS | 353.1 | 4.02 | 4.69 | 1.40 | 52.6% | 18.10% | 9.7% | 1.04 | 1.27 |
| Stephenson | CIN | CHC | 25.1 | 4.97 | 4.93 | 1.38 | 0.0% | 19.10% | 10.0% | 2.13 | 0.70 |
| Lackey | CHC | CIN | 394.1 | 3.06 | 3.85 | 1.14 | 57.9% | 21.80% | 6.4% | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Weaver | LAA | TEX | 326.0 | 4.91 | 5.21 | 1.37 | 52.4% | 13.20% | 5.8% | 1.66 | 0.65 |
| Holland | TEX | LAA | 159.0 | 4.92 | 4.86 | 1.37 | 0.0% | 15.50% | 7.4% | 1.42 | 0.99 |
| Farmer | DET | MIN | 64.2 | 6.12 | 4.83 | 1.65 | 0.0% | 16.70% | 11.2% | 1.81 | 1.20 |
| Berrios | MIN | DET | 48.2 | 8.88 | 5.21 | 1.99 | 0.0% | 19.20% | 12.9% | 2.22 | 0.94 |
| Kuhl | PIT | MIL | 56.2 | 3.97 | 4.59 | 1.20 | 0.0% | 16.70% | 6.8% | 0.95 | 1.35 |
| Nelson | MIL | PIT | 346.1 | 4.26 | 4.48 | 1.40 | 0.0% | 18.50% | 9.6% | 1.04 | 1.71 |
| Greinke | ARI | SDP | 375.1 | 2.78 | 3.62 | 1.02 | 50.0% | 22.00% | 5.2% | 0.86 | 1.41 |
| Perdomo | SDP | ARI | 134.2 | 5.68 | 4.01 | 1.63 | 0.0% | 16.50% | 7.3% | 1.20 | 2.87 |
| Moore | SFG | LAD | 244.2 | 4.41 | 4.53 | 1.37 | 0.0% | 19.80% | 8.8% | 1.21 | 0.93 |
| Maeda | LAD | SFG | 164.0 | 3.24 | 3.68 | 1.10 | 0.0% | 25.00% | 6.8% | 0.99 | 1.24 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Chris Sale CHW (at PHI) – The Phillies have taken the mantle as the biggest offensive doormat in baseball, and Sale should be happy to oblige. After five months of “merely” K-per-inning ratios and modest single-game strikeout totals, Sale has recently reverted to his bat-missing ways of old, with double-digit Ks in three of his last five starts and a total of 50 strikeouts through 42.0 innings over that stretch. The key to driving his large volumes of fantasy points is an ability to go deep into ballgames that is nearly unprecedented in the modern age: Sale has thrown 8.0 or more innings – yes, at least eight full frames – in six consecutive starts, throwing a remarkably-consistent number of pitches in each game, tossing 118-120 pitches in five of the six turns and he’s thrown at least 110 pitches in eight straight. He mixes insane rate stats with the longevity of a compiler, and tonight he takes on the lightest offense that the National League has to offer. Game on.
Max Scherzer WAS (at MIA) – Scherzer is on a glorious five-start run, with a 1.47 ERA and 42:6 K:BB ratio over 36.2 innings to go with a pristine 4-0 record. The last four of those game, however, have come against the bottom-feeding offenses of Philadelphia and Atlanta, though it should be noted that Atlanta has been a formidable opponent against right-handed pitchers in the second half of the season. That might sound like a lot of caveats, but I have been burned too many times by elite right-handers against the Braves over the past couple months. Scherzer gets another relatively easy turn with a trip to Miami, whose offense is generally sputtering though he has to be aware of the resurgent Giancarlo Stanton.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Corey Kluber CLE (vs. KC) – The Royals have a reputation as a low-strikeout offense that puts the ball in play, but they’ve been giving away some big strikeout games recently, setting the stage for Kluber to pile up a massive fantasy score. He has struck out 59 batters over his last 47.2 innings, and the last time that Kluber faced the Royals (back in mid-July), he spun seven scoreless frames with eight Ks along the way. He’s had a couple of four-run starts recently, but he always seems to clear 20 or more points on DraftKings – seven straight starts and 12 of his last 13 – as his innings and strikeouts counterbalance the extra run or two.
Masahiro Tanaka NYY (at TB) – Tanaka got his groove back in mid-August, and over his last six starts the right-hander has compiled a 1.34 ERA and 32:7 K:BB in 40.1 innings. The ratios would be even more if impressive if not for the outlier that was his last start, in which Tanaka went seven full frames without striking out a single hitter, this following a 10-K performance in the prior start. The 10-K game was against tonight’s Rays, and though his K count ran on empty in his previous start, the mere fact that Tanaka limited the Red Sox to one run on four hits over 7.0 full is impressive enough on its own. Combine the futility of the Rays’ offense with Tanaka’s current stretch of dominance and mix in his dominant start against the Rays two turns ago, and you have the recipe for a relatively easy outing,
John Lackey CHC (vs. CIN) – Lackey has been back from the disabled list for three starts, and aside from the three homers that he gave up to the Brewers in his last turn, it has been business as usual for the veteran right-hander. Lackey struck out eight batters and gave up four runs over seven innings versus Milwaukee, a ;ight total considering the three bombs and nine hits he surrendered in the contest. All told, he has a 3.50 ERA and 17:6 K:BB in 18.0 innings since his return, and he has built up his pitch count from 76 throws in his first game back up to 105 pitches his last time out, so expect the reigns to be off completely for Lackey in tonight’s start.
Kenta Maeda LAD (vs. SF) – The statlines have become predictable at this point. Maeda will likely throw 5.0-to-6.1 innings and allow 1-to-3 earned runs, just as he has done in the last 10 straight starts. He might spike some extra strikeouts, the number of which will likely determine whether his fantasy point total is closer to 10 or closer to 20, but his last start against the Giants would suggest the former, more modest count. When Maeda faced them back in late August, he tied a season-high with four walks to match his mere four strikeouts in a game that included three runs and ten baserunners over just 5.0 innings of work for the right-hander. His pitch-count is likely to stay under 95 throws, as it has in eight of his previous 11 starts, as the Dodgers have capped Maeda at a single-game high of 107 pitches this season and allowed him to eclipse the century mark just eight times in 29 starts this season.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weaver | 0.389 | 4.26 | 0.277 | 2.57 | 0.274 | 0.790 | 0.349 | 3.41 | 0.261 | 86.57 | 29.9% |
| Marquez | 0.258 | 0.755 | |||||||||
| McHugh | 0.312 | 4.19 | 0.338 | 4.27 | 0.250 | 0.707 | 0.327 | 3.78 | 0.273 | 98.27 | 21.1% |
| Mengden | 0.335 | 5.68 | 0.338 | 5.68 | 0.249 | 0.746 | 0.328 | 4.20 | 0.266 | 0.00 | 21.7% |
| Sanchez | 0.329 | 3.78 | 0.240 | 2.63 | 0.251 | 0.740 | 0.263 | 3.95 | 0.226 | 59.78 | 18.4% |
| Hernandez | 0.311 | 3.87 | 0.301 | 3.40 | 0.257 | 0.774 | 0.278 | 4.12 | 0.236 | 98.94 | 21.4% |
| Buchholz | 0.318 | 4.26 | 0.313 | 4.30 | 0.260 | 0.773 | 0.300 | 4.07 | 0.259 | 70.91 | 18.8% |
| Jimenez | 0.338 | 5.36 | 0.326 | 4.41 | 0.275 | 0.780 | 0.317 | 4.25 | 0.265 | 0.00 | 20.3% |
| Sale | 0.265 | 3.27 | 0.281 | 3.21 | 0.251 | 0.674 | 0.297 | 3.03 | 0.225 | 108.15 | 29.0% |
| Eickhoff | 0.347 | 4.21 | 0.264 | 2.82 | 0.253 | 0.706 | 0.279 | 3.97 | 0.242 | 93.24 | 20.7% |
| Weber | 0.376 | 5.79 | 0.305 | 4.55 | 0.242 | 0.712 | 0.317 | 4.23 | 0.288 | 0.00 | 15.9% |
| Colon | 0.319 | 3.61 | 0.303 | 3.74 | 0.257 | 0.699 | 0.297 | 3.90 | 0.268 | 83.75 | 16.3% |
| Kennedy | 0.322 | 3.95 | 0.332 | 3.92 | 0.256 | 0.743 | 0.282 | 4.59 | 0.242 | 99.40 | 23.9% |
| Kluber | 0.305 | 3.48 | 0.250 | 3.15 | 0.261 | 0.716 | 0.282 | 3.11 | 0.219 | 101.61 | 27.0% |
| Tanaka | 0.281 | 3.38 | 0.276 | 3.06 | 0.245 | 0.721 | 0.260 | 3.59 | 0.225 | 94.93 | 21.5% |
| Cobb | 0.232 | 2.45 | 0.250 | 0.733 | 0.245 | 3.93 | 0.224 | 0.06 | 16.9% | ||
| Scherzer | 0.296 | 3.06 | 0.217 | 2.52 | 0.261 | 0.700 | 0.258 | 2.92 | 0.198 | 0.00 | 31.0% |
| Koehler | 0.329 | 4.06 | 0.316 | 3.98 | 0.251 | 0.729 | 0.291 | 4.44 | 0.253 | 94.00 | 18.1% |
| Stephenson | 0.345 | 5.40 | 0.387 | 4.50 | 0.248 | 0.739 | 0.261 | 6.22 | 0.250 | 0.00 | 19.1% |
| Lackey | 0.316 | 3.17 | 0.268 | 2.97 | 0.253 | 0.718 | 0.278 | 3.70 | 0.234 | 0.00 | 21.8% |
| Weaver | 0.350 | 4.55 | 0.353 | 5.23 | 0.260 | 0.749 | 0.290 | 5.29 | 0.281 | 0.00 | 13.2% |
| Holland | 0.283 | 3.72 | 0.353 | 5.19 | 0.245 | 0.698 | 0.292 | 4.94 | 0.271 | 0.00 | 15.5% |
| Farmer | 0.426 | 6.35 | 0.347 | 5.94 | 0.247 | 0.717 | 0.313 | 5.95 | 0.288 | 0.00 | 16.7% |
| Berrios | 0.398 | 8.39 | 0.445 | 9.38 | 0.267 | 0.746 | 0.365 | 6.55 | 0.320 | 0.00 | 19.2% |
| Kuhl | 0.346 | 4.33 | 0.282 | 3.64 | 0.250 | 0.714 | 0.271 | 4.15 | 0.242 | 80.18 | 16.7% |
| Nelson | 0.361 | 5.17 | 0.298 | 3.54 | 0.259 | 0.728 | 0.294 | 4.54 | 0.254 | 93.43 | 18.5% |
| Greinke | 0.280 | 3.06 | 0.253 | 2.52 | 0.237 | 0.682 | 0.260 | 3.30 | 0.219 | 0.00 | 22.0% |
| Perdomo | 0.358 | 6.28 | 0.361 | 5.18 | 0.263 | 0.737 | 0.354 | 4.54 | 0.311 | 0.00 | 16.5% |
| Moore | 0.318 | 5.73 | 0.322 | 3.99 | 0.239 | 0.692 | 0.296 | 4.44 | 0.256 | 97.38 | 19.8% |
| Maeda | 0.297 | 3.14 | 0.252 | 3.31 | 0.262 | 0.734 | 0.275 | 3.51 | 0.222 | 93.62 | 25.0% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Matt Moore SF (at LAD) – Since Moore came to San Francisco at the trade deadline, the shape of his performance has been different but the results on the scoreboard have been mostly the same. What had been the best walk rate of his Rays’ career (7.3 percent, 2.8 BB/9) has morphed into career-worst marks (13.1 percent, 5.1 BB/9), but he’s cut the home run frequency in half while striking out more than a batter per inning, his best rate over a sample of more than 10 innings in his career. Small sample caveats aside, Moore has been all over the place with his performance as a Giant this season, striking out 11 batters in 7.0 innings two starts ago then whiffing just four Cardinals over 5.0 frames in his last turn, and enduring a six-run disaster – with four walks and two homers allowed – in just 2.2 innings at Coors Field in his first turn of the month. His best start as a Giant came against these Dodgers, as Moore lost a no-hitter with two outs in the ninth inning of their matchup on August 25, a game that included seven strikeouts and three walks before the soul-crushing hit fell.
Ian Kennedy KC (at CLE) – It’s a well-known fact that the Red Sox are lapping the field in terms of run-scoring this season, and that the 96-win Cubs are next in line, but Cleveland offense deserves its due, with the third-most runs scored in the majors as the offense helps the team stay afloat while the anchor members of the starting rotation drop like flies. The Indians battered Kennedy for seven runs over 4.1 innings the last time that he faced them, a forgettable outing on July 20 that included four home runs allowed (trying a season high) and two HBPs (tying another season high) in the contest. The Indians have routinely pasted Kennedy this season, knocking him around to the tune of a 6.00 ERA over four starts and 24.0 innings pitched. IPK has an excellent K:BB of 26:6 against the Indians this season, but the eight homers that he has allowed have thwarted his best-laid plans. The silver lining here is that Kennedy is having a strong season, including a 3.60 ERA and nearly a K per inning, and is coming off a home-and-home set against the White Sox that included just two runs allowed on six hits through 12.0 innings of back-to-back quality starts.
Zack Greinke ARI (at SD) – It has been a hellish campaign in Greinke’s first season in the desert, and there is little indication that the right-hander is adjusting to the extra heat. Three starts ago, he coughed up a whopping five home runs among nine hits in just 4.2 frames against the Dodgers, resulting in eight earned runs being tacked onto his baseball card. He has only allowed one home run combined across the past two turns (the last of which also came against the Dodgers), but Greinke has walked an uncharacteristically-high total of four batters in each of the two games. He had a strong outing against the Padres back in mid-August, cracking 20 points on DraftKings for the only time in his last 10 starts, with two runs allowed on nine baserunners and eight strikeouts in 7.0 innings of work in a game that followed a nine-run disaster outing in Boston.
Jerad Eickhoff PHI (vs. CHW) – Eickhoff has tossed five straight quality starts, though he got the last one on a technicality, given that the Pirates scored six runs against the right-hander in 6.2 innings but only three of those tallies were deemed to be earned, despite the fact that he gave up four home runs in the contest, snapping Eickhoff’s three-game homerless streak. He hasn’t struck out more than five batters in a game since mid-August and is routinely capped at six innings – he has thrown more than 6.0 frames just once in his last nine starts – so run prevention is the key to Eickhoff’s DFS score tonight.
Chad Kuhl PIT (at MIL)
Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. ATL)
Alex Cobb TB (vs. NYY)
Robert Stephenson CIN (at CHC)
Jimmy Nelson MIL (vs. PIT)
Tom Koehler MIA (vs. WAS)
Derek Holland TEX (vs. LAA)
Clay Buchholz BOS (at BAL)
Jose Berrios MIN (vs. DET)
Buck Farmer DET (at MIN)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Ryan Weber ATL (at NYM)
Luis Perdomo SD (vs. ARI)
Jered Weaver LAA (at TEX)
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (vs. BOS)
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