Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, September 30th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-10-01 14:32:50

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Dickey	TOR	BAL	425	3.85	4.43	1.22	47.6%	16.6%	7.6%	1.08	1.12
Gausman	BAL	TOR	217.2	4.01	3.98	1.30	37.5%	19.7%	7.3%	0.95	1.16
Miley	BOS	NYY	390	4.36	3.92	1.37	33.3%	19.6%	8.1%	0.92	1.71
Tanaka	NYY	BOS	285.1	3.09	3.01	1.02	66.7%	24.5%	4.2%	1.23	1.50
Lyons	STL	PIT	86.2	4.15	3.53	1.28	50.0%	22.7%	6.9%	1.45	1.11
Morton	PIT	STL	284.1	4.08	3.80	1.31	50.0%	18.2%	8.0%	0.70	2.55
Zito	OAK	LAA
Richards	LAA	OAK	364	3.21	3.62	1.15	65.0%	21.9%	8.1%	0.59	1.88
Boyd	DET	TEX	54.2	6.91	4.78	1.52		17.3%	8.0%	2.30	0.65
Gallardo	TEX	DET	371.1	3.47	4.19	1.35	50.0%	16.5%	7.6%	0.87	1.73
Matz	NYM	PHI	35.2	2.27	3.64	1.23		22.8%	6.7%	1.01	1.35
Asher	PHI	NYM	26.1	7.52	5.10	1.56		12.6%	6.7%	2.05	0.85
Zimmermann	WAS	ATL	395.1	3.16	3.47	1.14	52.6%	21.5%	4.2%	0.84	1.13
Perez	ATL	WAS	110.2	5.04	4.90	1.55		14.3%	9.8%	1.06	1.69
Cosart	MIA	TBR	245.1	3.82	4.44	1.36	31.6%	15.2%	9.8%	0.66	2.05
Smyly	TBR	MIA	213.2	3.24	3.57	1.17	50.0%	23.2%	6.8%	1.22	0.82
Lester	CHC	CIN	416.2	2.92	3.17	1.13	65.0%	24.8%	5.6%	0.69	1.37
Desclafani	CIN	CHC	212.2	4.27	4.06	1.34	20.0%	18.6%	6.4%	0.85	1.27
Pelfrey	MIN	CLE	186.2	4.58	4.82	1.51		11.6%	7.4%	0.77	1.81
Anderson	CLE	MIN	84.1	3.31	4.74	1.13		12.4%	5.9%	0.96	1.43
Volquez	KCR	CHW	385	3.34	4.30	1.26	50.0%	17.7%	8.6%	0.77	1.46
Quintana	CHW	KCR	397.2	3.35	3.57	1.27	50.0%	21.0%	5.7%	0.54	1.46
Bettis	COL	ARI	133.2	5.25	4.19	1.53		17.4%	8.1%	1.01	1.70
Anderson	ARI	COL	261.2	4.23	4.03	1.33	40.0%	19.2%	7.0%	1.17	1.21
Kazmir	HOU	SEA	369	3.27	3.84	1.17	63.2%	20.8%	7.1%	0.83	1.16
Davies	MIL	SDP	27	4.67	4.72	1.26		15.8%	11.4%	0.67	2.37
Cashner	SDP	MIL	303	3.53	3.92	1.30	75.0%	19.5%	7.2%	0.77	1.53
Bolsinger	LAD	SFG	158.1	4.15	3.91	1.43	33.3%	20.2%	8.7%	0.97	1.87
Leake	SFG	LAD	397.1	3.78	3.79	1.22	45.0%	17.1%	5.8%	1.02	1.98

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jon Lester CHC (at CIN) – It’s a small stretch to call Lester an All-In candidate, but he stands tall among today’s pitchers both for his ceiling of talent and his relatively lackluster opponent. Billy Hamilton is out of the lineup and thus unable to take advantage of Lester’s league-leading proclivity to give up steals, and this southpaw carries the platoon advantage against hefty Reds bats Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. He is the best bet for a solid K count, with a half—dozen punchouts or more in each of his last four starts and in seven of his past eight, though he hasn’t broken the double-digit threshold since early August (he has four such starts this season). If this were midseason then I would just leave the All-In section empty, but with the season-long tournament of DFS drawing to a close it’s time to draw some lines in the sand, and today’s carving leaves Lester sitting outside the sandbox.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (vs. BOS) – Tanaka is starting to hit his stride. He hurled seven shutout innings against the mighty Blue Jays two starts ago, and in the prior turn he struck out ten Orioles to crack double-digits in the K department for the first time this season. His two-run outing against the Mets made it three quality starts in a row despite tough opponents, and on the month he has 26 strikeouts with just two walks in 27.3 innings of work, including a 2.30 ERA. The opponents don’t get any easier but the trust in his services continues to build, and though it took all season he has finally become a pitcher that I can recommend in DFS.

Drew Smyly TB (vs. MIA) – The left-hander with the drunken-stork delivery has been piling on the strikeouts recently, but his ability to miss bats seems to wane from start to start. He threw seven shutout frames with 10 punchouts against the Orioles in his first start of the month, and two turns later he tossed another six innings of blanks while striking out 11 BoSox. He has whiffed at least a half-dozen batters in each of his last two ballgames since the Boston domination, which is more than he mustered in any one of his three August starts, but in two of his last five turns Smyly has given up four or more earned runs. Tonight he gets the easiest opponent since his return from the disabled list in August, finally getting out of the AL East for an interleague matchup that delivers a soft landing for his last start of the year.

Garrett Richards LAA (vs. OAK) – Richards has been a massive disappointment in the K department all season, but he is finally turning the corner with 32 whiffs across his last four outings, covering 28.3 innings of work. He faces an Oakland team whose 17.9-percent K rate is the second-lowest in baseball behind he Royals, so his bat-missing skills will certainly be tested in tonight’s matchup. He leads the majors in wild pitches for the second consecutive season, having uncorked a total of 38 wild ones across 364.0 innings the past two seasons, a factor which is more indicative of his relative lack of pitch command than his league-average walk rate over the same span.

Jordan Zimmermann WAS (at ATL) – Zimm’s pedigree combines with the lowly offense of the Braves to create a Raise opportunity, but it’s worth noting that Zimmermann had an easy landing against Philadelphia in two of his last three starts, and in each contest he surrendered six runs against a bottom-feeding offense. The recent history makes this recommendation tentative at best, as the Braves’ .297 wOBA and 673 OPS on the season should be enough to recommend most starting pitchers, but confidence is shaken in a pitcher who was once known for his consistency in preventing runs.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Dickey	0.299	3.40	0.323	4.26	0.253	0.746	0.261	4.44	0.237	101.80	16.6%
Gausman	0.301	3.15	0.329	5.13	0.264	0.787	0.298	3.81	0.253	84.75	19.7%
Miley	0.311	4.67	0.328	4.27	0.257	0.753	0.309	3.90	0.261	98.45	19.6%
Tanaka	0.284	3.08	0.291	3.10	0.265	0.737	0.269	3.52	0.226	97.77	24.5%
Lyons	0.280	3.32	0.331	4.43	0.255	0.698	0.287	4.28	0.246	52.81	22.7%
Morton	0.335	4.63	0.298	3.57	0.263	0.739	0.300	3.92	0.253	92.92	18.2%
Zito	1.375	81.00	0.463	10.13	0.235	0.669
Richards	0.259	3.12	0.286	3.33	0.252	0.710	0.271	3.30	0.218	101.25	21.9%
Boyd	0.477	11.05	0.359	5.40	0.250	0.724	0.309	6.07	0.295	77.83	17.3%
Gallardo	0.314	3.39	0.314	3.53	0.267	0.731	0.295	4.01	0.259	99.25	16.5%
Matz	0.314	0.00	0.278	2.93	0.257	0.689	0.300	3.62	0.246	96.00	22.8%
Asher	0.360	5.54	0.423	9.45	0.248	0.715	0.303	6.00	0.3	0.00	12.6%
Zimmermann	0.314	3.45	0.270	2.88	0.257	0.684	0.303	3.23	0.251	92.89	21.5%
Perez	0.376	5.77	0.331	4.25	0.251	0.724	0.318	4.95	0.287	80.82	14.3%
Cosart	0.311	3.17	0.306	4.40	0.247	0.699	0.281	4.10	0.247	93.77	15.2%
Smyly	0.221	2.18	0.332	3.63	0.276	0.740	0.280	3.87	0.236	93.13	23.2%
Lester	0.300	2.74	0.285	2.97	0.249	0.722	0.303	2.90	0.237	104.40	24.8%
Desclafani	0.344	5.09	0.298	3.38	0.246	0.729	0.315	3.70	0.268	78.30	18.6%
Pelfrey	0.346	4.52	0.344	4.64	0.251	0.719	0.323	4.45	0.297	90.41	11.6%
Anderson	0.326	4.33	0.264	2.57	0.244	0.698	0.248	4.29	0.237	85.50	12.4%
Volquez	0.312	3.30	0.296	3.38	0.253	0.702	0.275	4.03	0.238	95.64	17.7%
Quintana	0.292	4.20	0.309	3.08	0.273	0.728	0.327	2.96	0.264	104.79	21.0%
Bettis	0.331	4.73	0.382	5.83	0.265	0.735	0.329	4.22	0.284	57.00	17.4%
Anderson	0.322	3.93	0.342	4.48	0.271	0.777	0.307	4.20	0.266	90.68	19.2%
Kazmir	0.313	3.70	0.284	3.14	0.265	0.736	0.278	3.59	0.233	94.52	20.8%
Davies	0.213	0.66	0.344	8.78	0.245	0.692	0.235	4.22	0.208	88.60	15.8%
Cashner	0.344	4.59	0.278	2.66	0.260	0.717	0.303	3.59	0.254	98.14	19.5%
Bolsinger	0.365	4.15	0.300	4.15	0.267	0.742	0.316	3.94	0.265	85.03	20.2%
Leake	0.339	4.19	0.288	3.42	0.247	0.740	0.284	4.04	0.253	94.60	17.1%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Jose Quintana CHW (vs. KC) – The Royals lean heavily toward the left side of the plate, and though the team avoids any egregious platoon splits they have also been going through some offensive doldrums of late, including a .288 wOBA and 650 OPS over the last seven days. It seems like Quintana has spent the bulk of the season chasing down his April blow-up against the Tigers, a nine-run disaster over 4.0 frames, but an excellent final month has Quintana on the verge of setting a personal best for ERA. He has a 1.00 ERA through four September starts, and he will crack his career-low ERA of 3.31 with five clean frames in tonight’s ballgame. The strikeouts lack flare but have been a solid piece to his statistical repertoire, with five or more strikeouts in six straight games but no more than eight whiffs in any one contest, and the league-low K rate of KC batters will put a dent in his ability to continue the string.

Scott Kazmir HOU (at SEA) – Kazmir has unraveled over the last four weeks, tossing five or more innings in just two of his five September turns, with a 6.20 ERA on the month and just 15 strikeouts in 24.7 innings. He has given up six homers over that stretch, all of which have come in the last four games. He has actually given up 11 jacks over his last 10 starts covering 54.7 innings, after surrendering just two longballs in his previous 14 turns combined (crossing 85.0 innings of work). The Mariners have come on like gangbusters in the second half and they have a handful of batters who specialize in yanking the ball out of the yard, making it a great day to employ the likes of Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, and Kyle Seager.

Andrew Cashner SD (vs. MIL) – Cashner has been a massive disappointment this season, both by those prognosticators who thought that this was the year where it all came together (ahem) and by a San Diego ballclub that has had to watch Anthony Rizzo (who was traded for Cashner in January 2012) blossom under someone else’s watch. Cashner’s 4.21 ERA on the season is unsightly, but the situation gets uglier when one realizes that the right-hander has given up an astounding 22 unearned runs this season. The Brewers are floating a half-full boat down the final river of the season, giving Cashner a chance to finish strong, but the damage of the 2015 season has already been done to his stat-line.

Edinson Volquez KC (vs. CHW) – Volquez has pitched extremely well this season but is limping to the finish line, including a 6.00 ERA for the month that has added 0.38 runs to his ERA for the season. Much of that damage came in the first start of the month, and he has qualified for a quality start (though just barely) in three of his last four turns as the Royals have battled the other teams in their division down the stretch. He gets the weakest of the bunch tonight, facing a White Sox ballclub that has scored the fewest runs in the American League this season.

Yovani Gallardo TEX (vs. DET)

Mike Leake SF (at LAD)

Mike Bolsinger LAD (vs. SF)

Logan Verrett NYM (at PHI)

Charlie Morton PIT (vs. STL)

Mike Pelfrey MIN (at CLE)

Jarred Cosart MIA (at TB)

Chase Anderson ARI (vs. COL)

R.A. Dickey TOR (at BAL)

Cody Anderson CLE (vs. MIN)

Anthony DeSclafani CIN (vs. CHC)

Wade Miley BOS (at NYY)