First Look at FanDuel's NFL Week 1 Prices
The NFL season will be upon us before we know it, and we were reminded of that today when FanDuel released their Week 1 prices along with some huge contests that will be taking place, including a $6 entry fee $2M Sunday Million that will award $200K to first place.
A lot can change between now and the beginning of the season, but it’s never too early to start digging in and seeing if we can find some early value and opportunities to take advantage of some pricing errors.
— Google Doc with FanDuel Prices Sorted by Position —
Quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger has perhaps the juiciest matchup of opening week, facing the Browns (29th in Pass DVOA in 2016), and he’s priced accordingly as the third-highest priced QB behind only Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers. The player that stands out in the middle to upper tier is Derek Carr, who comes in as the 12th-highest priced QB at $7,700. The Raiders face the Titans, who showed some vulnerability to the pass game last season (27th in Pass DVOA), but it remains to be seen how much of an impact the off season signing of Marshawn Lynch will have on the Raiders pass attack. That being said you only have to pay $500 more to get to Big Ben and I much prefer that matchup. In fact, there is only a gap of $1,000 between QB1 Ryan and QB14 Tyrod Taylor.
Looking for value at QB? Brian Hoyer at $6,400 facing Carolina (11th in Pass DVOA last season) is an intriguing option as the 49ers new QB. Many will be tempted to jump on the Jay Cutler bandwagon at $6,700 facing Tampa Bay (6th in Pass DVOA last season), but I’ll pass on that situation given that he was on the sidelines prepping to be an on-air analyst the entire offseason. I want to see how Jared Goff looks this pre-season, but he has some appeal at $6,600 facing the terrible Colts defense (26th in Pass DVOA in 2016). There are still some QB situations that are unresolved (Cleveland, Houston, and Chicago), but all of those QBs are priced towards the low-end of the pricing spectrum and none of them have matchups that just scream “must play”. If it’s someone like Watson or Kizer manning the helm, however, they could be worth a GPP flyer or two given their upside and presumed low ownership.
Running Back
Everyone is going to try and figure out a way to jam in David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell in Week 1 as they both have plus matchups (especially Bell facing a Browns team that was 27th in Rush DVOA), but their prices are going to make that tough as FanDuel has priced them at $9,400 and $9,300 respectively. LeSean McCoy makes for an excellent pivot off of those two at $8,500 facing a Jets team that might have the worst defense in the league this year as they enter full-blown rebuilding mode (their top ranking in Rush DVOA should fall dramatically this season). There are no big anomalies in terms of pricing at the top tier of RBs although I think Jacquizz Rodgers, even as the likely Tampa Bay starting RB, is priced a bit high at RB14. Danny Woodhead is probably being over-hyped a bit too much at RB17, especially in a .5 PPR format like FanDuel. Isaiah Crowell has been on many people’s radars this off season as a player to emerge and at $6,500 facing a good, but not great, Steelers defense (11th in Rush DVOA in 2016) in week one, he’s certainly a viable mid-tier option.
Outside of the top 20 RBs in terms of price, we find recast plow horses like Eddie Lacy and LeGarrette Blount along with old reliable veterans like Jonathan Stewart and Matt Forte. Of that group, I like Stewart the best at just $6,100 as he seems to be overlooked with Christian McCaffrey in town, but he should still get the bulk of the goal line work facing a 49ers team that was one of the worst in the league against the run last season (31st in Rush DVOA). That could change if we hear news that the jobs is McCaffrey’s (which would make him a super viable option at RB16 price in a top 10 RB matchup). The top value option in my opinion, however, is Paul Perkins at just $6,000 – especially if the job remains his as it appears it will be. Other intriguing names to keep an eye on include whomever wins the Redskins RB battle between Kelley and Perine, an underpriced Giovanni Bernard if the team decides Joe Mixon isn’t quite ready yet, and a minimum priced Jonathan Williams in Buffalo if we think he’ll get significant run behind LeSean McCoy if the Bills blow the Jets out.
Wide Receiver
Antonio Brown against the Browns and Julio Jones against a shaky Bears secondary (17th in Pass DVOA in 2016) are the clear top options of Week 1 and as expected they are the top two WRs in terms of price – both coming in at over $9K. There’s no big shocks in terms of pricing at the top of the WR group – I like Doug Baldwin at $7,500 for the Seahawks facing the atrocious Packers secondary (23rd in Pass DVOA in 2016 although rookie CB Kevin King could change that somewhat) the best in the middle tier of guys. DeSean Jackson being priced at WR13 is absurd – yea, he has big play upside, but he’s more a WR25ish type guy. Brandon Marshall at WR17 is a bit too high as well as his best days are behind him. A few others that could be construed as over priced in that middle tier are Pierre Garcon, Cameron Meredith, and Eric Decker – Garcon and Decker have new teams and roles and I want to see how they have acclimated themselves and Meredith will have an unproven QB tossing him the ball.
At the lower end of the middle tier I like everyone’s preseason darling Jamison Crowder (especially if Jordan Reed continues to struggle with injuries) at $6,500 and if Martavis Bryant can somehow find his way to the field (his suspension status is still uncertain as of the time of this article) then he’s certainly a steal at $6,500. The biggest outlier in terms of pricing is new Redskins WR Terrelle Pryor, who comes in at WR30 (he’s routinely a top 20 WR in season long ADP) at $6,200. A Cousins-Crowder-Pryor stack will certainly be viable (and popular) in Week 1. Value options priced under $5,500 include Josh Doctson at $5,200 who should emerge as a viable passing target with the departure of Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson (the Redskins are going to be a very viable DFS team to attack at the beginning of the season before people catch on), Kenny Golladay at $5,100, Zay Jones at $5,100, and Mohamed Sanu at $4,800.
Tight End
No Gronk on this slate for us at FanDuel so we’re left with Jordan Reed (currently on the PUP list) as the top priced TE. If he plays, he’s definitely in play (and will diminish the value of all the Redskins WRs listed above and his backup Vernon Davis). Greg Olsen is a consistent option $500 cheaper than Reed and will this be the season where Jimmy Graham returns to his old ways? If so, he’s a bargain at $6,200 facing the Packers. The top eight TE’s in terms of price seem to be priced accurately and you can make arguments for utilizing each Week 1 if you’re wanting to pay $5.5K+ for a tight end. Jason Witten, C.J. Fiedorowicz, and Cameron Brate top the mid-tier TE’s in terms of price, but I think they are slightly overvalued here. I much prefer Jack Doyle at TE13 to those three as the TE role is all his in Indianapolis with the departure of Dwayne Allen. At under $5K, Evan Engram, Jared Cook, and Jesse James are all viable week one options, but I especially like Austin Hooper at $4,700 in a high-powered Falcons offense that sees last years starter Jacob Tamme currently unsigned.
Kickers and Defense
These two spots will be all about the matchups and roster construction (how much you’re willing to pay or can afford). The highest-priced kickers like Justin Tucker and Matt Bryant are always going to be viable options given their roles (Tucker on a Ravens team that loves to utilize him as much as possible and Bryant on a high-scoring Falcons team) while minimum priced options like Roberto Aguayo and Phil Dawson will find their ways into lineups purely because they provide salary relief with some marginal upside for the position.
The Texans DST will be uber popular opening week given they are facing Blake Bortles and the Jaguars, but at $5,100 and with a supposed run-heavy Jaguars offensive scheme this season that could be trap. I like Carolina for $200 less facing the 49ers or the Steelers for $300 less facing the Browns. Other defenses that look like they have positive matchups in week 1 include the Falcons (facing the Bears and their uncertain QB situation), the Bills facing the Jets (this will be a recurring theme this season), and Tampa Bay facing the Jay Cutler led Dolphins.