MLB DFS Slate Preview: Saturday, April 15
Taylor Smith previews the Saturday, April 15th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’ve got a 12-game slate for the second straight day on this Saturday afternoon. Today’s pitching slate isn’t a whole lot better than last night’s, but we’re all dealing with the same player pools. The expensive options today happen to find themselves in tough matchups, which could lead to significant ownership on some of the cheaper arms. Graham Ashcraft is the most expensive pitcher at $10,000 on FanDuel, which is certainly a sentence I never expected to type.
We also have a few weather situations to navigate this afternoon, which will make identifying the best MLB DFS picks even trickier. Let’s jump right in.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- MIN/NYY and PIT/STL are both YELLOW/GREEN on Roth’s morning weather report. He thinks both games are more likely to play clean than endure any sort of rain delay, but there’s still a chance something pops up over these ballparks. There’s also a slight chance of a shower in LAA/BOS and PHI/CIN, but nothing too dramatic.
- ATL/KC looks like the scariest game of the day with its YELLOW/ORANGE tag. Rain is in the forecast for the early afternoon here, which puts a late start in play. It’s worth noting Roth says he’s “optimistic” about this game being good to go, even if they have to push back first pitch.
- SF/DET and PHI/CIN will both be around 80 degrees, which makes these the best hitting weather games on the day. Fenway Park is the best hitter’s park on the slate, but the conditions for LAA/BOS look tough for bats with temps below 60 and some wind blowing in from right field.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Max Kepler should be back in the Twins’ lineup, as he’s expected to be activated off the IL. Kyle Higashioka will likely get the nod behind the plate for the Yankees, while DJ LeMahieu is expected to return after missing 3 games with a quad injury.
- Joc Pederson is expected to land on the IL with a wrist issue, which takes some serious thunder out of the Giants’ lineup. We do still have 5 lefties projected to start for San Francisco today against Michael Lorenzen. That includes Michael Conforto, who sat last night with a calf injury. J.D. Davis is dealing with a leg bruise, which certainly doesn’t sound overly serious. Kerry Carpenter and Zach McKinstry are projected to crack the Tigers’ lineup, while Eric Haase should replace Jake Rogers at catcher.
- Austin Hays is likely to regain his starting spot in the O’s outfield at the expense of Terrin Vavra, while Jake Burger should draw another start at the hot corner for the ChiSox with Yoan Moncada going on the injured list yesterday.
- Masataka Yoshida is still questionable for the Red Sox. Alex Cora wouldn’t commit to the rookie suiting up this afternoon, but he is expected to return from a hamstring issue by Sunday, at the latest. Rob Refsnyder has been starting in his place.
- Jorge Soler departed last night’s game early with back tightness, which puts his status for today against Ryne Nelson into question. Jesus Sanchez entered the game in Soler’s spot last night, so he could draw a start today.
- Kevin Newman was available to play off the bench last night for the Reds despite a shoulder injury, and we have him projected to start at SS today. If he doesn’t, Jose Barrero will presumably get the nod.
- Jesse Winker is still day-to-day with an illness, but he’s officially expected to return tonight in San Diego. He’s missed 5 straight games.
- Lars Nootbaar could be activated off the injured list today after missing the first couple of weeks because of a thumb injury. His return would bring some much-needed lefty thump to the St. Louis lineup when they face Roansy Contreras this afternoon.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- 3 of the 4 most expensive pitchers on FanDuel today are Graham Ashcraft ($10,000), Anthony DeSclafani ($9,900), and Bryce Elder ($9,700). Uh, yikes? The $9,800 Freddy Peralta is the only name we’d normally expect to see up here. DeSclafani draws the cushiest matchup of the group against the Tigers, who are whiffing at a healthy 27.4% clip vs. right-handed pitching since the start of last year. We could see some ownership here given DeSclafani’s impressive start to the season, as well. Ashcraft (vs. PHI), Peralta (at SD), and Elder (at KC) are tougher sells in tougher matchups.
- Given the uninspiring group at the top, you can probably get away with going a little cheaper today. Steven Matz ($8,900) gets a nice matchup of his own at home against the Pirates. Matz is really just an average pitcher across the board (22.5% Ks, 4.06 SIERA), but Pittsburgh’s offense (.147 ISO, .307 wOBA, 24% Ks) is woeful against left-handed pitching. Carlos Carrasco ($7,500) should be another chalky salary-saver today at the A’s, who sure do look like the worst team in all of baseball thus far.
- The Guardians were mediocre last night, but they’re in another attackable spot today against the woeful Chad Kuhl. His walk rate (11.4%) is nearly as high as his K-rate (15.9%) through a couple of starts, and he’s getting barreled up at an incredible 18.8% clip. Josh Naylor ($2,600), Jose Ramirez ($3,600), and Amed Rosario ($2,500) are the core pieces in any Cleveland stack. Josh Bell ($2,200) and Will Brennan ($2,200) are basically free. Andres Gimenez ($3,500) won’t come cheap, but this is a terrific matchup any way you slice it. Check out our Boom Fantasy promo code for new signups. I’ll pick on Kuhl by taking more than .5 singles for Gimenez today.
- The Mets put 17 runs on the board against James Kaprielian and friends last night, and they’ll take their swings against what may be a worse pitcher in Shintaro Fujinami today. A 19.4% walk rate sure makes it seem like he’s not ready for the majors, nor does a 13.9% K-rate. He hasn’t allowed a home run yet, but he has yielded 13 earned runs in just 6.2 innings. Despite the pitcher-friendly ballpark, it’s hard not to like the Mets here. Cheap pitching should make it easier to afford the likes of Pete Alonso ($3,800), Starling Marte ($3,400), and Francisco Lindor ($3,700). Jeff McNeil ($2,600) is a useful source of savings with the platoon edge against the A’s struggling right-hander.
- Joshes Bell and Naylor might be the 2 best value bats on FanDuel, but we’re also getting a useful discount on Kyle Schwarber ($3,100). Ashcraft is a groundball guy that doesn’t miss bats, and this is a park upgrade for Schwarber and the Phillies. Prettay, prettay good chance he goes yard today. Ketel Marte ($2,500) is a decent one-off cheapie against Braxton Garrett. Jazz Chisholm ($3,000) is off to a slow start, but he’s cheap for his projection here against Ryne Nelson.
- With so many cheapies in the outfield, paying up at the position could be one way to get a little different on FanDuel. Mike Trout ($4,500) against Nick Pivetta sounds like a pretty good idea, while Shohei Ohtani ($3,800) is hardly overpriced. Ronald Acuna ($4,200) also seems to have rounded back into form after struggling quite a bit last season.
- The pitching isn’t much more palatable on DraftKings, of course. Peralta ($10,700) and Tyler Mahle ($10,100) are your expensive options over here. They both project decently in a vacuum, but not for the dollar. Mixing them into GPP builds is viable, but I see no need to prioritize either guy in a cash game setting.
- Going cheaper with Matz ($6,900) makes sense here, even at what should be significant ownership. Zach Plesac ($6,500) isn’t particularly good, but neither is the Nationals lineup he’ll face today. We might as well get out of this with the cheapest pitching tandem possible, right? Seth Lugo ($7,400), Domingo German ($7,500), and Carrasco ($8,600) are decent values, as well.
- The Braves were among the top-performing stacks last night, and they’ll look good again today (weather permitting) against Kris Bubic. Bubic is fairly average, but the Braves can throw an awful lot of right-handed power at him today. The expensive salaries make them easier to prioritize in GPPs, but Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies, and Acuna project quite well. Getting to the Guardians against Kuhl is appealing, but they’re not nearly as attractively priced on DK as they are on FD.
- If you’re in the market for some cheap one-off power, you can do worse than Spencer Torkelson ($2,500), Gavin Sheets ($2,600), and Gabriel Moreno ($2,200). Francisco Alvarez ($2,400) is a rare catcher that projects to be a competent hitter at this level, and he’ll take his swings against Fujinami today.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!