MLB DFS Slate Preview: Saturday, August 5
Taylor Smith previews the Saturday, August 5th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’ve got some split-slate action on this Saturday, including an 8-game main slate that gets going at 7:05 ET. We don’t have to worry about Coors this weekend, while the Braves-Cubs clash is one of the matinee affairs. That should leave things on the main slate fairly wide open from a stacking perspective, while we’ve got a nice mix of aces and useful cheapies on the pitching side. Best of all, weather won’t play a significant role in the proceedings.
How should we approach tonight’s 8-gamer? Let’s dive right in and find the best MLB DFS picks for Saturday night.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- No games of concern on the main slate, which is glorious news considering some of the headaches we’ve dealt with in recent weeks. CHW/CLE is GREEN with winds of around 10 mph blowing in from right field.
- ARI/MIN has winds blowing in from center at 10 mph, while COL/STL has similar winds blowing left-to-right across the field. Both games are also GREEN with no precipitation worries and mid-80s temperatures.
- The best hitting conditions on the night may be in Anaheim for SEA/LAA, where it’ll be around 90 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing out to left-center at around 9 mph. NYM/BAL also features temperatures in the upper 80s.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Bailey Falter will make his Pirates debut in Milwaukee after he was traded over from the Phillies ahead of last week’s deadline. This will also be Falter’s first start at the MLB level since May,
- Noah Syndergaard will make his second start for the Guardians after leaving his debut with a leg injury. Since he’s making this start, I have no concerns about his leash, though it’s not like Syndergaard is a very appealing DFS option to begin with.
- Tylor Megill will get the call from the minors today to take the Mets rotation spot vacated by Justin Verlander. The right-hander hasn’t made an appearance in the big leagues since June 21st.
- No official word from the Dodgers yet, but it sounds like newcomer Ryan Yarbrough will get the ball tonight in San Diego. The lefty had been in solid form recently with the Royals before he was traded to LA earlier in the week.
- JD Martinez made an appearance as a pinch-hitter last night, but he’s expected to return to the lineup as a starter tonight. Chris Taylor is still expected to start tonight against lefty Blake Snell, as will Amed Rosario and Enrique Hernandez. Max Muncy is questionable after leaving Thursday’s game and missing last night’s clash with a wrist issue.
- Byron Buxton went on the IL yesterday with a hamstring issue that’ll keep him out for at least a couple of weeks. Matt Wallner figures to see plenty of time at DH with Buxton down.
- Brandon Nimmo returned to the Mets’ lineup last night after missing a few games with a tight quad. Starling Marte also came off the IL yesterday after missing over a week with migraines.
- Brandon Drury returned to the Angels’ lineup last night after a shoulder injury kept him sidelined for over a month. Zach Neto went on the IL with his lingering back soreness. Drury should be the Angels’ primary second baseman with Luis Rengifo manning shortstop for as long as Neto is out.
- Josh Naylor and Tyler Freeman both landed on the IL yesterday for Cleveland. David Fry will see some time at first base with Naylor sidelined.
- Eloy Jimenez is day-to-day after missing last night’s game with heel soreness. Trayce Thompson started in Jimenez’s outfield spot last night.
- Tony Kemp is iffy for the A’s tonight after missing Thursday’s game with a rib contusion.
- There’s no obvious stack worth going out of your way to target tonight, so I plan to spread my exposure on the hitting side of things. The Padres look solid against Yarbrough, though he’s still not really a gas can. The Dodgers could also give him a fairly tight leash in his debut. The Orioles would be next up against the middling Tylor Megill, followed by the Twins against the mediocre Ryne Nelson. The Mariners and Cardinals grade out as decent options against middling lefties in Tyler Anderson and Ty Blach, respectively.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Corbin Burnes ($10,800) looks like the SP1 tonight in a solid home matchup against the Pirates. He’s been on a tear since the All-Star break, which is nice to see given his struggles for most of the season’s first half. Blake Snell ($10,500) is very much on my radar despite a more daunting matchup with the Dodgers. Snell has been remarkably consistent of late, though it’s easy to see how things can go sideways for him here against a patient, deep lineup. Steven Matz ($9,000) is a useful matchup-based value at home against the Rockies. Matz has pitched well since his recent return to the rotation, and Colorado is an incredibly weak offense away from Coors Field.
- The Cardinals have been surprisingly underwhelming with the bats this season, but this lineup always profiles pretty well against left-handed pitching. Blach is a low-strikeout journeyman, so I plan to pick on him with some of these bats. Tyler O’Neill ($2,600) is the all-formats standout at his cheap salary, while Willson Contreras ($2,900) leads the team in barrel rate (17.3%) vs. LHPs. Paul Goldschmidt ($3,500) and Nolan Arenado ($3,200) have waxed lefties for about a decade now, while Jordan Walker ($2,900) is also putting up solid numbers. St. Louis is pretty cheap across the board, which makes them easy to get to with an expensive SP1.
Sticking with the STL theme, I’ll be taking higher than 1.5 total bases for Goldy on Underdog tonight. If you’re a new user, be sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Cleveland is also worth a mention here against Michael Kopech, a guy that struggles to hold runners and keep the ball in the yard. The Guardians are also cheap with the exception of Jose Ramirez ($4,100). Brayan Rocchio ($2,000) is a stellar value as one of their top prospects, while Andres Gimenez ($3,000), Oscar Gonzalez ($2,200), and Bo Naylor ($2,600) project as nice point-per-dollar pieces in all formats.
- The Twins aren’t as potent right now with Buxton and Alex Kirilloff on the shelf, but Nelson is attackable with his wack 12% strikeout rate against lefties. Joey Gallo ($2,600) always looks better against guys that can’t miss bats. Max Kepler ($2,900), Matt Wallner ($3,200), Edouard Julien ($3,000), Jorge Polanco ($3,000), and Willi Castro ($2,700) are all affordable and will hit with the platoon edge over the right-hander. With no hitter over $3,000, Minnesota is my favorite value stack on FD.
- If you have a bit more money to spend on bats, I’d start with Fernando Tatis ($4,000) against Yarbrough. Manny Machado ($3,300) and Xander Bogaerts ($3,200) aren’t even pricey, while Juan Soto ($4,100) has perfectly solid numbers against same-handed pitching.
- Burnes ($11,700) is the headliner over on DK, but he’s awfully expensive these days. Fortunately, there are enough viable punt SP2s to make it pretty easy to pay up for him. Matz ($6,900) and Ross Stripling ($5,500) are both too cheap for beatable matchups, and I’m willing to deploy them in all formats. I think Matz has the higher floor/ceiling combo of the two.
- Blake Snell ($11,100) is GPP-only on DraftKings against the Dodgers, while George Kirby ($10,000) and Kenta Maeda ($9,500) project for some ownership against the Angels and Diamondbacks. I’d much rather just take the savings on Matz and/or Stripling than linger in that range.
- Cleveland and Minnesota stand out as the value stacks on DK as well. Rocchio ($2,100), Gonzalez ($2,400), and Myles Straw ($2,200) are punts you can play in all formats over there, with Straw looking particularly appealing in a stellar matchup for stolen bases. With his major power against Nelson, Wallner ($2,400) is a core play in cash games.
- Goldy and Arenado won’t come as cheap on DK, but O’Neill ($3,400), Walker ($2,800), and Contreras ($3,800) look great. Dylan Carlson ($2,200) is yet another punt bat worth a look, particularly in STL stacks.
- Teoscar Hernandez ($3,200) and Eugenio Suarez ($3,300) are almost always cheap on DraftKings, while Ty France ($3,000) has shown signs of life lately amid a season-long slump. The weather is also good for hitting here, though it looks as though this will be a popular stack.
- The Padres and Orioles are my favorite more expensive stacks on the board. Adley Rutschman ($5,300) and Gunnar Henderson ($4,900) top the charts on the O’s side of things, while Ryan O’Hearn ($3,200) and Jorge Mateo ($2,700) offer value.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!