MLB DFS Slate Preview: Wednesday, July 26
Taylor Smith previews the Wednesday, July 26th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’ve got a split-slate Wednesday on tap. DraftKings is rolling with a 5-game main slate starting at 7:05 ET, while FanDuel added LAA-DET to make theirs a 6-gamer beginning at 6:40. There are quite a few stellar pitching options out there for such a short slate, headlined by Spencer Strider, Framber Valdez, and Carlos Rodon. Ownership could congregate around a few of the better hitting spots as a result, but this has the makings of a solid little slate. Let’s find some MLB DFS picks to build around, shall we?
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- There’s only one potential trouble spot tonight, and it’s the aforementioned LAA-DET FanDuel-only game. Kevin Roth has this one tagged as a straight ORANGE with storms around the ballpark at game time. There’s a chance we get an early PPD here, as well.
- NYM-NYY, CHC-CHW, and ATL-BOS all have temps in the mid-to-upper 80s around first pitch, which make for solid hitting conditions.
- TEX/HOU is the lone dome game on the slate, while OAK-SF is easily the coldest, with temperatures of around 60 degrees.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- There’s a chance both Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve return to the Astros’ lineup tonight after IL stints. Needless to say, that would be quite a boost. Alvarez has been sidelined since the beginning of June with a bad oblique, while Altuve has been out since just before the All-Star break with an oblique issue of his own.
- The Giants will face lefty Hogan Harris tonight, which means Michael Conforto, Joc Pederson, and LaMonte Wade are expected to begin the game on the bench. Austin Slater should draw his usual leadoff duty, while Mike Yastrzemski is the only LHB in San Francisco’s projected lineup.
- Francisco Alvarez departed last night’s game early with a hand injury, though X-rays came back negative. Omar Narvaez will do the catching tonight if the Mets decide to give Alvarez a breather. Tommy Pham missed another game with his lingering groin soreness last night.
- Yoan Moncada returned to the White Sox’ lineup after a 6-week absence with a back injury last night. Andrew Vaughn also returned after missing a handful of games with a sore foot. They’re projected to hit fifth and sixth, respectively, in the Sox’ lineup tonight against Marcus Stroman.
- Adolis Garcia came back yesterday after missing a couple of games with a hand injury. Nathaniel Lowe will slide down a couple of spots in the order against lefty Framber Valdez, while Robbie Grossman is projected to slide into the outfield in place of Travis Jankowski.
- Brent Rooker is still day-to-day with the illness that initially kept him out of Oakland’s lineup last Friday. Ramon Laureano, however, was activated from the IL yesterday after missing more than a month.
- Even with Brayan Bello on the mound for Boston, the Braves are once again projecting as the top stack on the night. Atlanta gets a huge park boost going into Fenway, and navigating all of that power will be a tall task for Bello. The Braves’ 5.55 total is the highest on the board. The Giants (5.08) aren’t too far behind against Hogan Harris, though the ballpark, pitcher-friendly weather, and pinch-hit risk with this team move them down the stacking list, in my opinion. I’d much rather target the Astros (4.88) against the homer-happy Andrew Heaney, especially if Alvarez and Altuve are back to beef up the Houston lineup. The Cubs are also worth a shout, as they’ll face the pitcher that has allowed more home runs than anybody this season (28!) in Lance Lynn.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Spencer Strider ($11,200) is clearly the best pitcher from a raw talent standpoint on the slate, but he gets a negative context shift going into Fenway. He’s not projecting nearly as well as he usually does against a Boston lineup with impressive numbers this season against righties. I’d expect the cheaper Framber Valdez ($10,300) to garner a bit more ownership in a slightly more favorable matchup with Texas.
- Going a little cheaper, Lance Lynn ($9,400) faces a boom-or-bust matchup against the Cubs. Lynn can’t keep the ball in the yard, but he’s due for some regression on that HR/FB rate. The strikeouts are also still there (27.3%), so I have no qualms with playing either side of this matchup in GPPs. The most glaringly underpriced pitcher on FanDuel is Carlos Rodon, who sits at just $7,600 amid some shaky form at home against the Mets. We haven’t seen vintage Rodon since he returned from injury, but it’s hard to ignore that price tag.
- Bello’s impressive numbers against right-handed hitters may help him keep some of the Braves’ thunder in check, but this is pretty much an average pitcher against lefties. Ozzie Albies ($3,800) and Matt Olson ($4,200) headline any Atlanta stack from the left side, while you can once again find useful value with Michael Harris ($2,900) and Eddie Rosario ($2,700). Of course, Bello’s splits won’t get me completely away from guys like Ronald Acuna ($4,700) and Austin Riley ($4,000), especially in stacks.
- The Cubs get a nice park boost of their own going into Guaranteed Rate, and Lynn is another guy that has really struggled to contain opposite-handed hitters. Cody Bellinger ($3,900), Ian Happ ($3,000), and Mike Tauchman ($3,000) really stand out with the platoon advantage, while we’re getting good value with Dansby Swanson ($3,000).
- The Astros stack gets more expensive if Yordan Alvarez ($4,100) and Jose Altuve ($3,700) return. Still, the lineup also gets considerably more potent. Heaney has struggled to contain right-handed power for years, and most of these RHBs are affordable. Jose Abreu ($2,600), Alex Bregman ($3,300), and Jeremy Pena ($2,800) are the standouts, while we’ll see if they can find a way to keep Yainer Diaz ($2,800) in the lineup.
- Stacking against Strider isn’t often recommended, but I’m willing to make an exception here in the best hitter’s park on the slate. Strider has quietly allowed 16 home runs on the year, so there is some sneaky upside in a Boston stack tonight. Rafael Devers ($3,900) and Masataka Yoshida ($3,400) lead the way in terms of priority with the platoon advantage. Jarren Duran ($3,300), Alex Verdugo ($3,100), and Triston Casas ($3,000) project well for the dollar.
- I also like the value on Rafael Devers to total more than 7 fantasy points tonight on Underdog. That’s just a wildly low total for a hitter of his caliber, and Strider hasn’t been completely impervious to damage. New users should take advantage of our Underdog Fantasy promo code for a 100% match bonus on your next deposit of up to $100.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- The Yankees are also worth a mention, given their affordable salaries and matchup against Jose Quintana tonight. Oswald Peraza ($2,300), Giancarlo Stanton ($3,000), Gleyber Torres ($3,000), and Kyle Higashioka ($2,100) rate out as 4 of the best point-per-dollar value bats on the entire slate, so they’re easily stackable against an average-ish left-hander tonight.
- As usual, Strider is significantly more expensive on DK ($12,700) than on FD. I’m still happy to fire him up in GPPs in this spot at what should be lower-than-usual ownership, but that’s a steep price to pay for any pitcher at Fenway. I’ll be starting with Framber Valdez ($10,900) in cash game and smaller-field GPP builds at a $1,800 discount. Rodon ($9,000) and Lynn ($7,700) are both affordable enough to target in all formats on DK. If you want to punt one of your pitcher spots, I think you can do worse than Hogan Harris ($5,300) at San Francisco. Harris’ numbers are average across the board, but it’s a favorable pitching environment.
- The Yankees and A’s headline the value stacks on DraftKings. New York’s lineup is nowhere near full strength with Judge and Donaldson out, but 6 hitters in the projected lineup are coming in at $3,500 or less. Peraza ($3,000) and Anthony Volpe ($3,100) really stand out, while Harrison Bader ($3,500) continues to post gaudy numbers against left-handed pitching. The A’s will face a wide-split lefty in Alex Wood. There’s merit to looking at Zack Gelof ($3,700), Ramon Laureano ($2,300), Brent Rooker ($3,000), and Shea Langeliers ($2,700) for some cheap right-handed pop.
- The aforementioned Cubs lefties still look awfully good on DraftKings, while you can punt with Miles Mastrobuoni ($2,800) and Tucker Barnhart ($2,100) with the platoon advantage against Lynn. Lynn has still served up 10 dongs to righties, so don’t overlook Seiya Suzuki ($3,100) or Swanson ($4,100) in your Cubs stacks.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck tonight!