MLB First Look: Saturday, July 15th
The MLB First Look, complete with sortable odds, a pitcher breakdown, and team offense rankings, will help you get an early start on the upcoming slate.
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MLB Schedule & Vegas Lines
| Away | Pitcher | Home | Pitcher | Vegas Line | Run Total | Ballpark | LHB Rating | RHB Rating | Time (ET) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | Luis Severino – R | at | Boston Red Sox | Chris Sale – L | BOS-170 | 8.0 | Fenway Park | 79 | 88 | 4:05 PM |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Francisco Liriano – L | at | Detroit Tigers | Michael Fulmer – R | DET-136 | 9.5 | Comerica Park | 92 | 91 | 6:10 PM |
| Chicago Cubs | Jake Arrieta – R | at | Baltimore Orioles | Wade Miley – L | CHC-124 | 10.0 | Camden Yards | 85 | 87 | 7:05 PM |
| St. Louis Cardinals | Lance Lynn – R | at | Pittsburgh Pirates | Jameson Taillon – R | PIT-125 | 8.5 | PNC Park | 85 | 80 | 7:05 PM |
| Philadelphia Phillies | Aaron Nola – R | at | Milwaukee Brewers | Jimmy Nelson – R | MIL-140 | 8.5 | Miller Park | 99 | 88 | 7:10 PM |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | Alex Wood – L | at | Miami Marlins | Jose Urena – R | LAD-150 | 8.5 | Marlins Park | 80 | 83 | 7:10 PM |
| Minnesota Twins | Ervin Santana – R | at | Houston Astros | Joe Musgrove – R | HOU-155 | 9.5 | Minute Maid Park | 83 | 82 | 7:10 PM |
| Colorado Rockies | Tyler Chatwood – R | at | New York Mets | Seth Lugo – R | NYM-112 | 9.0 | Citi Field | 83 | 83 | 7:10 PM |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | Patrick Corbin – L | at | Atlanta Braves | Mike Foltynewicz – R | ATL-110 | 9.5 | SunTrust Park | 94 | 85 | 7:10 PM |
| Seattle Mariners | Felix Hernandez – R | at | Chicago White Sox | Derek Holland – L | SEA-130 | 9.5 | U.S. Cellular Field | 100 | 85 | 7:10 PM |
| Washington Nationals | Max Scherzer – R | at | Cincinnati Reds | Luis Castillo – R | WAS-157 | 9.0 | Great American Park | 94 | 89 | 7:10 PM |
| Texas Rangers | Cole Hamels – L | at | Kansas City Royals | Danny Duffy – L | KC -105 | 9.0 | Kauffman Stadium | 75 | 82 | 7:15 PM |
| San Francisco Giants | Madison Bumgarner – L | at | San Diego Padres | Jhoulys Chacin – R | SF -135 | 7.5 | Petco Park | 79 | 86 | 8:40 PM |
| Cleveland Indians | Corey Kluber – R | at | Oakland Athletics | Paul Blackburn – R | CLE-170 | 8.0 | O.co Coliseum | 82 | 84 | 9:05 PM |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Alex Cobb – R | at | LA Angels of Anaheim | J.C. Ramirez – R | LAA-110 | 8.5 | Angel Stadium | 90 | 88 | 9:07 PM |
Starting Pitchers
| Pitcher | Team | Matchup | Opp. K% | Line | FD | DK | FDRFT | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | HC% | HR/FB | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | WAS | at CIN | 20.8% | -157 | $12,100 | $12,900 | $25,200 | 2.68 | 2.10 | 35.5% | 5.5% | 16.0% | 38.7% | 26.3% | 10.2% | 7:10 PM |
| Chris Sale | BOS | NYY | 23.2% | -170 | $11,600 | $13,000 | N/A | 2.53 | 2.75 | 35.9% | 4.4% | 16.2% | 36.3% | 29.1% | 9.1% | 4:05 PM |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | at OAK | 25.4% | -170 | $11,500 | $12,200 | $23,700 | 2.86 | 2.80 | 33.8% | 6.6% | 15.5% | 49.3% | 30.6% | 11.4% | 9:05 PM |
| Madison Bumgarner | SF | at SD | 26.1% | -135 | $11,000 | $10,500 | $20,400 | 3.46 | 3.00 | 25.0% | 3.6% | 11.1% | 46.2% | 34.2% | 7.1% | 8:40 PM |
| Alex Wood | LAD | at MIA | 19.8% | -150 | $9,900 | $11,800 | $22,800 | 2.81 | 1.67 | 30.9% | 7.0% | 13.6% | 63.5% | 21.5% | 5.1% | 7:10 PM |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | TOR | 20.7% | -136 | $9,400 | $9,400 | N/A | 4.31 | 3.19 | 18.0% | 5.6% | 9.5% | 49.3% | 28.3% | 6.6% | 6:10 PM |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | at BAL | 22.6% | -124 | $9,300 | $6,800 | $13,500 | 4.07 | 4.35 | 23.5% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 45.7% | 29.2% | 15.4% | 7:05 PM |
| Luis Severino | NYY | at BOS | 18.6% | 170 | $9,300 | $10,400 | N/A | 3.25 | 3.54 | 28.4% | 6.2% | 12.1% | 52.4% | 30.7% | 14.8% | 4:05 PM |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | PHI | 23.9% | -140 | $9,100 | $9,700 | $18,900 | 3.48 | 3.30 | 26.1% | 6.0% | 11.6% | 49.8% | 31.5% | 12.5% | 7:10 PM |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | at MIL | 24.9% | 140 | $8,800 | $8,800 | $17,100 | 3.84 | 3.59 | 24.6% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 49.3% | 30.2% | 11.9% | 7:10 PM |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | at KC | 19.8% | 105 | $8,800 | $9,000 | $17,400 | 5.13 | 3.51 | 13.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 51.3% | 37.3% | 10.6% | 7:15 PM |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | STL | 21.3% | -125 | $8,600 | $8,300 | $16,000 | 4.06 | 2.73 | 22.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 52.0% | 28.0% | 11.4% | 7:05 PM |
| Danny Duffy | KC | TEX | 27.0% | -105 | $8,500 | $7,800 | $15,000 | 4.61 | 3.76 | 19.8% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 40.8% | 28.5% | 7.6% | 7:15 PM |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | at HOU | 17.4% | 155 | $8,400 | $8,000 | $15,600 | 4.75 | 2.99 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 44.3% | 27.4% | 12.9% | 7:10 PM |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | at CWS | 22.3% | -130 | $8,400 | $8,300 | $16,000 | 4.09 | 4.44 | 20.9% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 47.1% | 28.7% | 25.0% | 7:10 PM |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SD | SF | 19.5% | 135 | $8,000 | $7,600 | $15,200 | 4.28 | 4.32 | 20.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 53.5% | 29.9% | 15.9% | 8:40 PM |
| Alex Cobb | TB | at LAA | 20.1% | 110 | $7,900 | $7,500 | $14,800 | 4.77 | 3.75 | 15.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 45.4% | 36.8% | 9.9% | 9:07 PM |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | ARI | 22.5% | -110 | $7,800 | $6,900 | $13,600 | 4.54 | 3.77 | 20.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 38.0% | 27.5% | 14.3% | 7:10 PM |
| Lance Lynn | STL | at PIT | 18.7% | 125 | $7,500 | $6,500 | $12,900 | 4.46 | 3.61 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 42.1% | 29.9% | 17.9% | 7:05 PM |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | WAS | 19.2% | 157 | $7,500 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 3.57 | 3.13 | 30.6% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 56.9% | 31.0% | 23.8% | 7:10 PM |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | at ATL | 19.1% | 110 | $7,400 | $6,600 | $13,200 | 4.07 | 4.71 | 20.8% | 6.6% | 10.7% | 50.9% | 33.6% | 16.8% | 7:10 PM |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | at NYM | 19.1% | 112 | $7,300 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 4.89 | 4.42 | 19.5% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 56.4% | 28.6% | 21.2% | 7:10 PM |
| J.C. Ramirez | LAA | TB | 24.6% | -110 | $7,300 | $5,700 | $11,400 | 4.41 | 4.46 | 18.8% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 48.6% | 38.6% | 17.2% | 9:07 PM |
| Jose Urena | MIA | LAD | 23.2% | 150 | $7,000 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 5.10 | 3.54 | 15.9% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 39.5% | 31.6% | 10.8% | 7:10 PM |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | CLE | 19.5% | 170 | $7,000 | $5,000 | $10,000 | 5.49 | 0.66 | 7.7% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 51.1% | 20.0% | 5.9% | 9:05 PM |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | COL | 22.6% | -112 | $7,000 | $6,000 | $12,000 | 4.93 | 4.59 | 15.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 42.6% | 29.1% | 11.1% | 7:10 PM |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | at DET | 19.8% | 136 | $6,900 | $6,700 | N/A | 4.95 | 5.56 | 20.1% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 44.9% | 32.4% | 12.2% | 6:10 PM |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | MIN | 22.3% | -155 | $6,800 | $6,200 | $12,400 | 4.46 | 6.04 | 19.5% | 6.6% | 10.9% | 41.7% | 34.1% | 17.9% | 7:10 PM |
| Wade Miley | BAL | CHC | 20.7% | 124 | $6,600 | $5,400 | $10,800 | 4.91 | 4.97 | 19.4% | 12.4% | 7.4% | 53.2% | 33.2% | 18.8% | 7:05 PM |
| Derek Holland | CWS | SEA | 18.6% | 130 | $6,600 | $4,800 | $9,600 | 4.86 | 5.01 | 19.2% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 39.4% | 38.3% | 17.1% | 7:10 PM |
Note: All statistics in the pitching table are from the 2017 season.
Offenses
| Offense | IRT | RPG | +/- | Opp. Pitcher | L/R | P vs. LHB | P vs. RHB | T-wOBA | T-ISO | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 5.14 | 4.53 | 0.61 | Wade Miley | LEFT | 0.284 | 0.365 | 0.341 | 0.191 | 7:05 PM |
| Houston Astros | 5.07 | 5.92 | -0.85 | Ervin Santana | RIGHT | 0.277 | 0.302 | 0.364 | 0.216 | 7:10 PM |
| Detroit Tigers | 4.96 | 4.70 | 0.26 | Francisco Liriano | LEFT | 0.317 | 0.350 | 0.336 | 0.201 | 6:10 PM |
| Seattle Mariners | 4.93 | 4.79 | 0.14 | Derek Holland | LEFT | 0.268 | 0.365 | 0.311 | 0.127 | 7:10 PM |
| Baltimore Orioles | 4.86 | 4.45 | 0.40 | Jake Arrieta | RIGHT | 0.300 | 0.265 | 0.316 | 0.177 | 7:05 PM |
| Washington Nationals | 4.83 | 5.52 | -0.69 | Luis Castillo | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.359 | 0.344 | 0.191 | 7:10 PM |
| Atlanta Braves | 4.81 | 4.66 | 0.16 | Patrick Corbin | LEFT | 0.308 | 0.366 | 0.334 | 0.165 | 7:10 PM |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 4.69 | 5.01 | -0.32 | Mike Foltynewicz | RIGHT | 0.348 | 0.306 | 0.342 | 0.194 | 7:10 PM |
| New York Mets | 4.57 | 4.72 | -0.15 | Tyler Chatwood | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.316 | 0.324 | 0.194 | 7:10 PM |
| Chicago White Sox | 4.57 | 4.56 | 0.01 | Felix Hernandez | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.327 | 0.306 | 0.156 | 7:10 PM |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 4.54 | 5.14 | -0.60 | Jose Urena | RIGHT | 0.327 | 0.320 | 0.332 | 0.184 | 7:10 PM |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 4.54 | 4.16 | 0.38 | Michael Fulmer | RIGHT | 0.273 | 0.283 | 0.313 | 0.170 | 6:10 PM |
| Kansas City Royals | 4.53 | 4.16 | 0.37 | Cole Hamels | LEFT | 0.257 | 0.311 | 0.305 | 0.160 | 7:15 PM |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 4.48 | 4.96 | -0.47 | Aaron Nola | RIGHT | 0.311 | 0.283 | 0.331 | 0.198 | 7:10 PM |
| Texas Rangers | 4.47 | 5.05 | -0.58 | Danny Duffy | LEFT | 0.215 | 0.328 | 0.296 | 0.152 | 7:15 PM |
| Minnesota Twins | 4.43 | 4.58 | -0.15 | Joe Musgrove | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.344 | 0.324 | 0.168 | 7:10 PM |
| Colorado Rockies | 4.43 | 5.07 | -0.64 | Seth Lugo | RIGHT | 0.307 | 0.299 | 0.320 | 0.155 | 7:10 PM |
| Boston Red Sox | 4.41 | 4.84 | -0.44 | Luis Severino | RIGHT | 0.311 | 0.309 | 0.322 | 0.151 | 4:05 PM |
| Cleveland Indians | 4.41 | 4.84 | -0.43 | Paul Blackburn | RIGHT | 0.217 | 0.314 | 0.333 | 0.189 | 9:05 PM |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 4.40 | 4.25 | 0.15 | Lance Lynn | RIGHT | 0.349 | 0.256 | 0.307 | 0.148 | 7:05 PM |
| LA Angels of Anaheim | 4.31 | 4.10 | 0.22 | Alex Cobb | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.318 | 0.303 | 0.150 | 9:07 PM |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 4.19 | 4.76 | -0.57 | J.C. Ramirez | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.302 | 0.339 | 0.204 | 9:07 PM |
| Cincinnati Reds | 4.17 | 4.82 | -0.65 | Max Scherzer | RIGHT | 0.310 | 0.191 | 0.331 | 0.191 | 7:10 PM |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 4.10 | 4.57 | -0.47 | Jameson Taillon | RIGHT | 0.311 | 0.303 | 0.325 | 0.174 | 7:05 PM |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 4.02 | 3.82 | 0.20 | Jimmy Nelson | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.338 | 0.300 | 0.143 | 7:10 PM |
| Miami Marlins | 3.96 | 4.71 | -0.75 | Alex Wood | LEFT | 0.270 | 0.241 | 0.328 | 0.146 | 7:10 PM |
| San Francisco Giants | 3.96 | 3.93 | 0.02 | Jhoulys Chacin | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.297 | 0.290 | 0.132 | 8:40 PM |
| New York Yankees | 3.59 | 5.55 | -1.95 | Chris Sale | LEFT | 0.256 | 0.270 | 0.309 | 0.159 | 4:05 PM |
| Oakland Athletics | 3.59 | 4.29 | -0.70 | Corey Kluber | RIGHT | 0.285 | 0.253 | 0.321 | 0.197 | 9:05 PM |
| San Diego Padres | 3.54 | 3.55 | 0.00 | Madison Bumgarner | LEFT | 0.216 | 0.281 | 0.276 | 0.130 | 8:40 PM |
Note: All statistics in the team offense table are from the 2017, season with the exception of the pitcher splits by handedness. They are from the last two seasons combined.
First Look Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| LHB Rating | The ballpark rating for left-handed hitters |
| RHB Rating | The ballpark rating for left-handed hitters |
| Opp. K% | Strikeout rate of the opposing offense against the handedness of the pitcher |
| SIERA | Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average – A good predictor of future ERA |
| ERA | Earned Run Average |
| K% | Percentage of batters a pitcher strikes out |
| BB% | Percentage of batters that a pitcher walks |
| SS% | Swinging Strike Percentage |
| GB% | Ground Ball Percentage |
| HC% | Hard Contact Percentage |
| HR/FB | Percentage of fly balls a pitcher gives up a home run |
| IRT | Implied run total based on the Vegas line and over/under |
| RPG | Average runs scored per game |
| +/- | The difference between a team’s implied run total and their average runs scored per game |
| P vs. LHB | The wOBA a pitcher allows to left-handed hitters |
| P vs. RHB | The wOBA a pitcher allows to right-handed hitters |
| T-wOBA | A team’s wOBA vs. the handedness of the pitcher they are facing |
| T-ISO | A team’s ISO vs. the handedness of the pitcher they are facing |