MLB Grind Down: Monday, June 29th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.
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Milwaukee at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM EST
| Milwaukee | Philadelphia | ||||||||
 | Jimmy Nelson |  | Sean O’Sullivan | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIL (-147) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.283 | 0.856 | 0.369 | 16.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.346 | 1.098 | 0.459 | 11.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.251 | 0.668 | 0.300 | 21.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.260 | 0.730 | 0.318 | 10.80% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jimmy Nelson : FD: $7,200 — DK: $6,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 160.2 — SIERA: 3.90 — K%: 19.1% — BB%: 7.5% — FB Rate: 31.6% — HR/FB: 11.0%
Last 30 Days: IP: 35.0 — SIERA: 3.95 — K%: 18.1% — BB%: 6.5% — FB Rate: 31.0% — HR/FB: 14.3%
Philadelphia Phillies Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.278 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 10)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.303 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 17.9% (Rank: 7)
Pitchers per PA: 3.72 (Rank: 27)
Analysis: Nelson is coming off of one of his best outings of the season, allowing a single run over eight innings in a win over the Mets. He draws another favorable matchup tonight against the Phillies, who are ranked dead last in wOBA (.278) against right-handed pitching. The Phillies are also a friendly opponent for the opponent’s pitch count, as they average the fourth-fewest pitches per plate appearance this season. The Phillies may not strike out often as a team, but we don’t have to pay a premium for Nelson tonight. He’s in play for both cash games and tournaments.
Pitcher Rating:66.8
Sean O’Sullivan : FD: $5,100 — DK: $4,300
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 73.1 — SIERA: 4.88 — K%: 11.1% — BB%: 5.9% — FB Rate: 37.3% — HR/FB: 17.9%
Last 30 Days: IP: 27.0 — SIERA: 5.43 — K%: 8.7% — BB%: 7.1% — FB Rate: 38.4% — HR/FB: 13.2%
Milwaukee Brewers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.293 (Rank: 25) — Strikeout Rate: 21.4% (Rank: 25)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 18.5% (Rank: 13)
Pitchers per PA: 3.72 (Rank: 24)
Analysis: O’Sullivan is one of the top pitchers to stack hitters against. Every time he takes the mound, you will see plenty of stacks from the team that he is facing. He has really struggled in his recent starts, posting a 5.43 SIERA with an extremely low strikeout rate of 8.7% over the last month. Even though the Brewers’ offense has continuously struggled this season, they should be able to put some runs on the board tonight.
Pitcher Rating:33.0
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
The Brewers draw one of the best matchups on the board tonight. Since the start of last season, Sean O’Sullivan has given up a .459 wOBA to left-handed hitters, which brings Adam Lind and Gerardo Parra into play. While right-handed hitters haven’t had nearly as much success against O’Sullivan, they are still in play tonight. Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun, and Carlos Gomez are also worth a look.
Elite Plays:
Adam Lind : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 513 — wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: 0.190 — wRC+: 152
Last 14 Days: PA: 46 — wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.143 — wRC+: 114
Jonathan Lucroy : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 625 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 120
Last 14 Days: PA: 49 — wOBA: 0.286 — ISO: 0.091 — wRC+: 76
Gerardo Parra : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 665 — wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.133 — wRC+: 94
Last 14 Days: PA: 56 — wOBA: 0.314 — ISO: 0.130 — wRC+: 95
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Braun : FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 658 — wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.186 — wRC+: 111
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.286 — ISO: 0.152 — wRC+: 76
Carlos Gomez : FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 668 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.184 — wRC+: 127
Last 14 Days: PA: 25 — wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: 0.087 — wRC+: 109
Philadelphia
The Phillies offense lacks both firepower and high on-base players. That’s a deadly combination. As a team, they have the worst wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. While their matchup against Jimmy Nelson may not be the worst on the board, they do have the fourth-lowest team total tonight. Maikel Franco and Ben Revere are in play, but both should be considered secondary options at their respective positions.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Maikel Franco : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 151 — wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.212 — wRC+: 126
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.433 — ISO: 0.304 — wRC+: 179
Ben Revere : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 668 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.066 — wRC+: 93
Last 14 Days: PA: 47 — wOBA: 0.417 — ISO: 0.133 — wRC+: 168
Texas at Baltimore – 7:05 PM EST
| Texas | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Wandy Rodriguez |  | Bud Norris | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BAL (-132) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.292 | 0.818 | 0.356 | 12.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.272 | 0.807 | 0.354 | 18.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.267 | 0.830 | 0.358 | 18.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.689 | 0.306 | 19.40% |
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Wandy Rodriguez : FD: $6,400 — DK: $5,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 95.1 — SIERA: 4.28 — K%: 17.4% — BB%: 8.0% — FB Rate: 35.4% — HR/FB: 15.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.2 — SIERA: 4.40 — K%: 14.4% — BB%: 6.1% — FB Rate: 30.1% — HR/FB: 9.7%
Baltimore Orioles Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 11)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.353 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 21.8% (Rank: 23)
Pitchers per PA: 3.80 (Rank: 12)
Analysis: I can’t seem to predict when Rodriguez is going to get blown up and when Rodriguez is going to have a quality start. Every time it looks like he is going to get shelled, he turns into Randy Johnson and dominates his opponent. Tonight is another situation where the Orioles should absolutely dominate offensively. As a team, they are ranked seventh in wOBA (.323) against right-handed pitching and third in wOBA (.353) over the last 14 days. Anything can happen in baseball, but it’s hard to envision a bad outing from the Orioles’ offense tonight.
Pitcher Rating:46.5
Bud Norris : FD: $6,400 — DK: $5,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 215.0 — SIERA: 4.03 — K%: 19.0% — BB%: 7.7% — FB Rate: 36.3% — HR/FB: 11.5%
Last 30 Days: IP: 22.1 — SIERA: 3.77 — K%: 18.1% — BB%: 5.3% — FB Rate: 30.4% — HR/FB: 14.3%
Texas Rangers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 20.1% (Rank: 19)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.281 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 25.3% (Rank: 27)
Pitchers per PA: 3.80 (Rank: 13)
Analysis: Norris hasn’t been nearly as bad as his 6.70 ERA would suggest, but he’s not exactly a top target in daily fantasy baseball. Since the start of last season, he has a 4.03 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.0%. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against a talented Rangers’ offense that is finally starting to get healthy. Run support shouldn’t be an issue for Norris, but he’ll likely give up a few runs himself. He’s not the worst pitching option on the board, but he doesn’t crack the top five either.
Pitcher Rating:61.6
Batter Grind Down
Texas
The Rangers draw a favorable matchup against Bud Norris in a favorable hitter’s park in Camden Yards. The left-handed bats in this lineup have the splits in their favor, as Norris has given up a .354 wOBA to hitters from the left side of the plate. Hot-hitting Prince Fielder and Rougned Odor are my favorite targets here, while Adrian Beltre, Mitch Moreland, and Shin-Soo Choo are also in play.
Elite Plays:
Prince Fielder : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 307 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.149 — wRC+: 147
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.447 — ISO: 0.262 — wRC+: 187
Rougned Odor : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 386 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.157 — wRC+: 90
Last 14 Days: PA: 38 — wOBA: 0.436 — ISO: 0.242 — wRC+: 179
Secondary Plays:
Adrian Beltre : FD: $2,800 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 620 — wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.148 — wRC+: 116
Last 14 Days: PA: 20 — wOBA: 0.177 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: -1
Mitch Moreland : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 300 — wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.181 — wRC+: 121
Last 14 Days: PA: 46 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.156 — wRC+: 102
Shin-Soo Choo : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 552 — wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.160 — wRC+: 114
Last 14 Days: PA: 47 — wOBA: 0.146 — ISO: 0.023 — wRC+: -23
Baltimore
As mentioned above, this is a great matchup for the Orioles. They are one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching and they get to face Wandy Rodriguez at home in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Both left and right-handed hitters are in play here, as Rodriguez has given up a .356+ wOBA to hitters from both sides of the plate. Load up on Orioles in cash games and don’t be afraid to employ a few Baltimore stacks in tournaments.
Elite Plays:
Editor’s Note: Wieters is not in the lineup tonight.
Matt Wieters : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 36 — wOBA: 0.287 — ISO: 0.286 — wRC+: 79
Last 14 Days: PA: 28 — wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.280 — wRC+: 132
Jimmy Paredes : FD: $3,000 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 44 — wOBA: 0.316 — ISO: 0.136 — wRC+: 100
Last 14 Days: PA: 35 — wOBA: 0.445 — ISO: 0.235 — wRC+: 189
Secondary Plays:
Manny Machado : FD: $4,200 — DK: $5,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 170 — wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.152 — wRC+: 102
Last 14 Days: PA: 56 — wOBA: 0.467 — ISO: 0.245 — wRC+: 204
Adam Jones : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 220 — wOBA: 0.435 — ISO: 0.260 — wRC+: 183
Last 14 Days: PA: 17 — wOBA: 0.241 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: 47
Steve Pearce : FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 2B/OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 162 — wOBA: 0.421 — ISO: 0.306 — wRC+: 173
Last 14 Days: PA: 9 — wOBA: 0.380 — ISO: 0.222 — wRC+: 143
Boston at Toronto – 7:07 PM EST
| Boston | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Clay Buchholz |  | R.A. Dickey | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-126) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.271 | 0.746 | 0.330 | 19.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.226 | 0.704 | 0.314 | 16.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.266 | 0.704 | 0.312 | 20.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.735 | 0.323 | 18.60% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Clay Buchholz : FD: $8,600 — DK: $8,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 263.1 — SIERA: 3.74 — K%: 19.7% — BB%: 6.8% — FB Rate: 32.1% — HR/FB: 8.5%
Last 30 Days: IP: 32.2 — SIERA: 3.28 — K%: 21.2% — BB%: 5.1% — FB Rate: 26.0% — HR/FB: 0.0%
Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.330 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 15)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.343 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 15)
Pitchers per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 15)
Analysis: Buchholz has pitched well in his recent starts, posting a 3.28 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.2% over the last month. His velocity and strikeout rate have both improved this season, but unfortunately, his price has also gone up. He draws one of the worst matchups on the board tonight. The Blue Jays are ranked fourth in wOBA (.330) against right-handed pitching and eighth in wOBA (.343) over the last 14 days. Visiting pitchers at the Rogers Centre typically don’t have a lot of success.
Pitcher Rating:57.0
R.A. Dickey : FD: $7,400 — DK: $6,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 311.2 — SIERA: 4.32 — K%: 17.6% — BB%: 8.4% — FB Rate: 37.0% — HR/FB: 11.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 32.0 — SIERA: 4.61 — K%: 17.9% — BB%: 10.0% — FB Rate: 40.2% — HR/FB: 7.7%
Boston Red Sox Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 16.5% (Rank: 2)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.354 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 16.4% (Rank: 4)
Pitchers per PA: 3.95 (Rank: 2)
Analysis: Dickey will have a few solid innings in a row, but he just can’t seem to turn that into quality starts. He has given up at least three earned runs in six of his last nine starts. He has a slightly below-average strikeout rate (17.6%) with an above-average walk rate (8.4%). Dickey should be avoided tonight against the Red Sox, who have the second-lowest strikeout rate (16.5%) against right-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating:45.7
Batter Grind Down
Boston
The Red Sox come into tonight’s game as the second-hottest offense in baseball with a .354 wOBA over the last 14 days. They draw a favorable matchup against R.A. Dickey in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Dickey is a fly-ball pitcher with an above-average HR/FB rate. I typically don’t put very much stock into BvP statistics, but in the case of a knuckle-ball pitcher, they have some merit. David Ortiz, Pablo Sandoval, Mike Napoli, and Xander Bogaerts all have a career .318+ batting average against Dickey.
Elite Plays:
David Ortiz : FD: $2,800 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 614 — wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.246 — wRC+: 136
Last 14 Days: PA: 52 — wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.205 — wRC+: 125
Pablo Sandoval : FD: $2,400 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 620 — wOBA: 0.365 — ISO: 0.153 — wRC+: 137
Last 14 Days: PA: 42 — wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.143 — wRC+: 134
Secondary Plays:
Mookie Betts : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 397 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.169 — wRC+: 121
Last 14 Days: PA: 57 — wOBA: 0.496 — ISO: 0.288 — wRC+: 223
Mike Napoli : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 558 — wOBA: 0.314 — ISO: 0.159 — wRC+: 96
Last 14 Days: PA: 43 — wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 108
Xander Bogaerts : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: 3B/SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 628 — wOBA: 0.288 — ISO: 0.104 — wRC+: 78
Last 14 Days: PA: 51 — wOBA: 0.304 — ISO: 0.157 — wRC+: 89
Toronto
The Blue Jays have the third-highest team total of the night, right behind the Dodgers and Orioles. They are one of the best offenses against right-handed pitching and they are one of the best offenses at home. They draw a decent matchup tonight against Clay Buchholz. The big question here is whether or not the big bats (Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson) are worth their hefty price tags.
Elite Plays:
Jose Reyes : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 636 — wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.118 — wRC+: 104
Last 14 Days: PA: 60 — wOBA: 0.258 — ISO: 0.127 — wRC+: 58
Dioner Navarro : FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 447 — wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.125 — wRC+: 95
Last 14 Days: PA: 31 — wOBA: 0.345 — ISO: 0.269 — wRC+: 119
Secondary Plays:
Jose Bautista : FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 775 — wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.240 — wRC+: 147
Last 14 Days: PA: 58 — wOBA: 0.422 — ISO: 0.333 — wRC+: 172
Edwin Encarnacion : FD: $4,200 — DK: $5,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 673 — wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.276 — wRC+: 141
Last 14 Days: PA: 52 — wOBA: 0.417 — ISO: 0.289 — wRC+: 168
Josh Donaldson : FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 790 — wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.171 — wRC+: 117
Last 14 Days: PA: 55 — wOBA: 0.269 — ISO: 0.063 — wRC+: 65
Minnesota at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM EST
| Minnesota | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Mike Pelfrey |  | Mike Leake | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CIN (-159) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.230 | 0.700 | 0.316 | 11.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.277 | 0.788 | 0.345 | 14.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.317 | 0.814 | 0.359 | 10.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.234 | 0.661 | 0.290 | 19.90% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Mike Pelfrey : FD: $6,700 — DK: $4,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 109.0 — SIERA: 4.98 — K%: 10.7% — BB%: 9.2% — FB Rate: 27.7% — HR/FB: 9.9%
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.1 — SIERA: 4.52 — K%: 10.8% — BB%: 7.2% — FB Rate: 25.0% — HR/FB: 7.1%
Cincinnati Reds Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 18.8% (Rank: 9)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 18.3% (Rank: 10)
Pitchers per PA: 3.73 (Rank: 23)
Analysis: Pelfrey will not make any of my daily fantasy baseball rosters. Not tonight and not at any other point in the season. I have nothing against him personally, I just can’t roster a pitcher that has a walk rate (9.2%) that is nearly as high as his strikeout rate (10.7%). With such limited strikeout potential, he needs a near perfect outing to pay of his salary. While it’s certainly possible, it’s not very likely. I’ll be avoiding Pelfrey tonight against a competent Reds’ offense.
Pitcher Rating:33.5
Mike Leake : FD: $6,400 — DK: $6,900
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 311.0 — SIERA: 3.67 — K%: 17.2% — BB%: 5.8% — FB Rate: 25.7% — HR/FB: 14.5%
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.0 — SIERA: 3.11 — K%: 19.7% — BB%: 4.6% — FB Rate: 16.0% — HR/FB: 6.7%
Minnesota Twins Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 20.1% (Rank: 19)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 17.5% (Rank: 6)
Pitchers per PA: 3.78 (Rank: 16)
Analysis: Leake is coming off of his best two-game stretch of the season. In his last two starts, he has only given up two runs while striking out 12 batters over 14 innings of work. He has a great opportunity to make it three quality starts in a row tonight, as he takes on a below-average Twins’ offense at home. The Twins are ranked 24th in wOBA (.295) and 19th in strikeout rate (20.1%) against right-handed pitching this season. Pitching is thin tonight with only nine games on the schedule. Leake can be targeted in both cash games and tournaments.
Pitcher Rating:68.3
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
The Twins’ offense has been better in the last few weeks, but they are still one of the worst hitting teams against right-handed pitching. I don’t see any of their hitters as elite plays tonight, but the left-handed bats do deserve consideration as secondary options. Since the start of last season, Mike Leake has given up a .345 wOBA to hitters from the left side of the plate.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Joe Mauer : FD: $2,700 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 528 — wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.108 — wRC+: 102
Last 14 Days: PA: 52 — wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.190 — wRC+: 132
Eddie Rosario : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 107 — wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: 0.175 — wRC+: 97
Last 14 Days: PA: 47 — wOBA: 0.267 — ISO: 0.174 — wRC+: 67
Cincinnati
The Reds draw one of the best matchups on the board tonight. They should be able to make good contact against a low-strikeout pitcher in Mike Pelfrey. The right-handed hitters are the top targets here, as Pelfrey has given up a .359 wOBA to hitters from the right side over the last two seasons. Joey Votto is also worth a look at first base.
Elite Plays:
Todd Frazier : FD: $4,900 — DK: $5,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 748 — wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: 0.231 — wRC+: 137
Last 14 Days: PA: 55 — wOBA: 0.427 — ISO: 0.404 — wRC+: 174
Marlon Byrd : FD: $2,800 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 624 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.179 — wRC+: 103
Last 14 Days: PA: 30 — wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.207 — wRC+: 127
Secondary Plays:
Joey Votto : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 420 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.180 — wRC+: 135
Last 14 Days: PA: 49 — wOBA: 0.300 — ISO: 0.024 — wRC+: 87
Cleveland at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM EST
| Cleveland | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
 | Cody Anderson |  | Nate Karns | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBR (-130) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.300 | 0.700 | 0.303 | 20.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.228 | 0.634 | 0.291 | 28.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.167 | 0.378 | 0.176 | 10.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.197 | 0.662 | 0.290 | 15.70% |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | Batter Splits | TB vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Cody Anderson : FD: $6,100 — DK: $5,700
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 7.2 — SIERA: 3.72 — K%: 13.8% — BB%: 3.5% — FB Rate: 25.0% — HR/FB: 0.0%
Last 30 Days: IP: 7.2 — SIERA: 3.74 — K%: 13.8% — BB%: 3.5% — FB Rate: 25.0% — HR/FB: 0.0%
Tampa Bay Rays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 24)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.328 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 22.9% (Rank: 26)
Pitchers per PA: 3.84 (Rank: 9)
Analysis: Anderson pitched well in his first major league start, striking out four batters over seven innings of work, while only giving up a single run. Anderson had good success at both the Double-A and Triple-A levels earlier this season and he’s a pitcher to keep your eye on moving forward. I need a bigger sample size from him before targeting him in anything other than a tournament, but we’ll see what he has to offer in his second major league start.
Pitcher Rating:60.7
Nate Karns : FD: $6,600 — DK: $7,100
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 97.0 — SIERA: 3.90 — K%: 22.2% — BB%: 9.4% — FB Rate: 35.2% — HR/FB: 12.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.0 — SIERA: 3.83 — K%: 21.7% — BB%: 8.4% — FB Rate: 30.6% — HR/FB: 10.0%
Cleveland Indians Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 18.6% (Rank: 7)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.295 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 21.1% (Rank: 20)
Pitchers per PA: 3.93 (Rank: 3)
Analysis: Karns has some interesting home/road splits. Young pitchers typically play better at home, especially when most of their road starts are coming in places like Yankee Stadium, Camden Yards, and Fenway Park. That’s not the case with Karns though, as he has much better numbers on the road this season. While that’s a small concern, it’s not nearly as big of an issue as his matchup. The Indians are an above-average offense that makes pitchers work. They have the seventh-lowest strikeout rate (18.6%) against right-handed pitching and they average the third-most pitches per plate appearance.
Pitcher Rating:62.6
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
The Indians have a potent offense, but they have the lowest team total on the board tonight. While I don’t love targeting pitchers against Cleveland, I’m not sure that I will have a ton of exposure to their hitters against Nate Karns either. Since the start of last season, he has held left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Carlos Santana : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 623 — wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.213 — wRC+: 126
Last 14 Days: PA: 45 — wOBA: 0.296 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 89
Michael Brantley : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 598 — wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.184 — wRC+: 154
Last 14 Days: PA: 46 — wOBA: 0.248 — ISO: 0.071 — wRC+: 56
Tampa Bay
Cody Anderson is making his second career start and his first career start on the road. He pitched well against this same Rays’ offense in his last start, but it’s always tough to dominate a lineup in two straight outings. It’s hard to predict how well these young pitchers are going to pitch in their first few starts, but the Rays’ offense is in a pretty decent spot tonight.
Elite Plays:
Kevin Kiermaier : FD: $2,700 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 484 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.205 — wRC+: 129
Last 14 Days: PA: 51 — wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.140 — wRC+: 125
Secondary Plays:
Joey Butler : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 122 — wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.152 — wRC+: 136
Last 14 Days: PA: 52 — wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.130 — wRC+: 104
David DeJesus : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 453 — wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.151 — wRC+: 121
Last 14 Days: PA: 37 — wOBA: 0.217 — ISO: 0.091 — wRC+: 37