MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 13 - Page Three

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2015-06-14 00:31:36

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 7:15 PM EST

NY Yankees					Baltimore
			CC Sabathia					Bud Norris
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL (-106)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.159	0.437	0.198	0.29	SP vs. Left	0.275	0.811	0.357	0.191
SP vs. Right	0.329	0.927	0.4	0.2	SP vs. Right	0.226	0.671	0.298	0.199
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

CC Sabathia

Salaries: $7,100 FD, $7,500 DK

Baltimore Orioles vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 17)
Strikeout Rate: 20.4% (Rank: 17)

His peripherals still look okay, but there is no reason to roll C.C. Sabathia out on any of your daily fantasy rosters. He struggles to get right-handed bats out, and the Orioles can send out plenty of them out there in this matchup. Several of them hit for power, and that’s not good news for Sabathia, who has been victimized by the long ball on several occasions in 2015. Rating = 2.5

Bud Norris

Salaries: $6,500 FD, $5,700 DK

New York Yankees vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 20)

Bud Norris had his best outing of the year his last time out, and that means he probably got his good game out of the way for the next two months. A date with the Yankees and all their left-handed power in a stadium that benefits left-handed power hitters does not bode well. Norris is safe to cross off the list today. Rating = 2.5

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Brett Gardner
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: .136 — OBP: 0.380

Gardner is a great on-base guy, and Bud Norris allows a lot of base runners. Combine those factors and the odds are good that Gardner finds his way on base in this one. He is one of my favorite cash game plays of the day.

Secondary Plays:

Alex Rodriguez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: .233 — OBP: 0.379

Baltimore

Matt Wieters
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.177 — ISO: .000 — OBP: 0.200

Ignore the overall season numbers against LHP, as Wieters has only logged a few at-bats against them this season. His past history has shown that he is capable of crushing LHP, and he has more upside than any catcher today with C.C. Sabathia on the mound for the opposition.

Adam Jones
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.468 — ISO: .308 — OBP: 0.432

Don’t ignore the overall season numbers against LHP, as they match up with Jones’ career history of slugging it against southpaws. The wOBA, ISO, and OBP are elite. He gets a boost in every category with C.C. Sabathia on the mound.

Secondary Plays:

Manny Machado
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: .157 — OBP: 0.309

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs – 7:15 PM EST

Cincinnati					Chicago Cubs
			Mike Leake					Kyle Hendricks
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.280	0.798	0.349	0.143	SP vs. Left	0.242	0.631	0.28	0.148
SP vs. Right	0.231	0.659	0.289	0.199	SP vs. Right	0.248	0.653	0.29	0.188
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Leake

Salaries: $6,600 FD, $6,400 DK

Chicago Cubs vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 25.8% (Rank: 1)

Mike Leake is an interesting tournament target this evening. The Cubs carry an elevated strikeout rate against RHP that is the worst in baseball, which could help Leake rack up a nice fantasy total if he is on his game. Leake is not a pitcher that I often target, mainly because of his low strikeout rate, but the Cubs give him a boost in that department. In addition, the wind is likely to be blowing in from right field, which is another small boost. This isn’t my favorite play, but I can see some logic behind it. Rating = 5

Kyle Hendricks

Salaries: $6,800 FD, $7,100 DK

Cincinnati Reds vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 18.4% (Rank: 24)

Not enough people are talking about Kyle Hendricks. He often gets lost in the shuffle behind Jake Arrieta and Jason Hammel, but he has very good stuff. He walks less than two batters per nine innings, attacks the strike zone, and has very respectable numbers across the board. Cincinnati’s offense is not imposing if a pitcher can limit the damage from the heart of the order. There are a lot of outs in the 5-9 spots, and hopefully Hendricks can use that to his advantage today. He is one of the better late-slate targets. Rating = 6.5

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Joey Votto
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.413 — ISO: .289 — OBP: 0.397

Votto clubbed three home runs in a game earlier this week and has shown an improved power stroke in 2015. He also has an impeccable ability to get on base, as evidenced by his near-.400 OBP against right-handers this season. Kyle Hendricks is not my favorite pitcher to pick on, but Votto would be my favorite Cincinnati target by a wide margin.

Secondary Plays:

Jay Bruce
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: .171 — OBP: 0.322

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.417 — ISO: .282 — OBP: 0.411

On the other side of this game, Anthony Rizzo is also emerging as a great first base option. He is one of the better hitters in the league against RHP and should be a solid play against Mike Leake this evening.

Secondary Plays:

Dexter Fowler
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: .173 — OBP: 0.308

Arizona at San Francisco – 7:15 PM EST

Arizona					San Francisco
			Allen Webster					Ryan Vogelsong
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SFG (-146)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.248	0.703	0.324	0.115	SP vs. Left	0.284	0.832	0.363	0.195
SP vs. Right	0.271	0	0.34	0.167	SP vs. Right	0.216	0.661	0.294	0.183
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SF vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Allen Webster

San Francisco Giants vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.330 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 16.9% (Rank: 27)

The Giants hit RHP very well. The Giants don’t strike out very often. Allen Webster gives up a lot of hits. Allen Webster is simply filling in tonight. Let’s move along. Rating = 1.5

Ryan Vogelsong

Salaries: $6,500 FD, $6,200 DK

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 14)

Ryan Vogelsong has been much improved since the beginning of May, but his upside for DFS purposes is still limited by his lack of strikeouts. This is a pitcher-friendly park, and Arizona profiles worse against RHP than LHP, but it’s hard for me to get totally behind Vogelsong. He is not a great tournament play, but I can see using him as a second starting pitcher for cash games on multiple pitcher sites. That’s about as far as I can go with it. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

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Secondary Plays:

Ender Inciarte
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: .120 — OBP: 0.328

Paul Goldschmidt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.460 — ISO: .311 — OBP: 0.471

San Francisco

Joe Panik
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.365 — ISO: .165 — OBP: 0.366

The Giants have very good overall team stats against RHP this season, but it’s hard to find many individual plays that stick out. Panik is in play because his price is still somewhat cheap on some sites, he generally hits 2nd in the order, and he should make solid contact against Allen Webster.

Secondary Plays:

Angel Pagan
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.264 — ISO: .077 — OBP: 0.279

Buster Posey
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: .171 — OBP: 0.380

Oakland at LA Angels – 10:05 PM EST

Oakland					LA Angels
			Kendall Graveman					C.J. Wilson
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAA (-132)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.297	0.834	0.370	0.114	SP vs. Left	0.197	0.577	0.264	0.234
SP vs. Right	0.266	0.711	0.313	0.158	SP vs. Right	0.263	0.745	0.331	0.187
Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs L		Batter Splits	LAA BvP		ANA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Kendall Graveman

Salaries: $5,400 FD, $5,300 DK

Los Angeles Angels vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.300 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 14)

Graveman is walking almost four batters per nine innings while striking out just over five batters per nine innings. The walks are well above league average and the strikeouts are well below league average. Toss in a matchup against the suddenly hot Angels bats and you have an easy pass today. Look elsewhere for your pitching selection. Rating = 2.5

C.J. Wilson

Salaries: $7,700 FD, $8,200 DK

Oakland Athletics vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.284 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 17.5% (Rank: 26)

Don’t get sucked in by Oakland’s mediocre wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season. This is not the matchup for C.J. Wilson. The A’s are patient at the dish and don’t strike out often, which is a recipe for disaster with the nit-picking nature of Wilson. He may be effective in this game, but he could also very easily approach 100 pitches in five innings. This limits his already sketchy upside. Rating = 5.5

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Billy Burns
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.345 — ISO: .104 — OBP: 0.357

Billy Burns is turning into the most consistent batter on this Oakland team, and he generally finds himself in the leadoff spot every day now. He isn’t going to hit for a lot of power, but he should be able to get on base a few times against Wilson.

Secondary Plays:

Ben Zobrist
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.255 — ISO: .151 — OBP: 0.256

LA Angels

Kole Calhoun
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: .144 — OBP: 0.381

His wOBA against RHP is still lagging behind where it could be, but the OBP is well above average, and Calhoun should be brimming with confidence after hitting a game winning home run lastnight against these A’s. He is locked into a role as the Angels’ cleanup hitter and is definitely in play today.

Secondary Plays:

Mike Trout
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.415 — ISO: .306 — OBP: 0.386

Johnny Giavotella
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.297 — ISO: .078 — OBP: 0.317

LA Dodgers at San Diego – 10:10 PM EST

LA Dodgers					San Diego
			Zack Greinke					Ian Kennedy
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD (-155)					6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.235	0.621	0.276	0.235	SP vs. Left	0.246	0.754	0.329	0.24
SP vs. Right	0.233	0.645	0.284	0.25	SP vs. Right	0.256	0.729	0.322	0.242
Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LA vs R		Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SD vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Zack Greinke

Salaries: $10,400 FD, $10,500 DK

San Diego Padres vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 21.6% (Rank: 5)

After a hot start to the year, the Padres offense has cooled somewhat over the past several weeks. Petco Park has been playing as more of a hitters’ park this season, but it’s still hard to tell what is causing this. It could be a small sample size issue, it could be the Padres’ improved offense, it could be the Padres’ poor defense, it could be external factors, or it could be something else. Whatever the case may be, I am still fine with targeting good pitchers when they pitch there. Enter Zack Greinke, who looks as good as he has all season right now and seems to be hitting a stride. He doesn’t strike out as many batters as some of the elite pitchers, but he is one of the safer options out there, especially in the late-only slate of games. Rating = 9

Ian Kennedy

Salaries: $7,200 FD, $7,300 DK

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.350 (Rank: 1)
Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 17)

Kennedy has some of the most extreme statistical differences you will ever see with a pitcher. Despite a hefty 6.48 ERA, Kennedy carries a respectable 3.61 xFIP and 3.59 SIERA. His strikeout rate is borderline elite, but he has been victimized by an extremely high HR/FB ratio so far in 2015. Some improvement is likely going to happen in the second half, but this isn’t the right matchup to bank on it. The Dodgers lead the league in wOBA against RHP, so Kennedy is better left on the table today. Rating = 4.5

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Andre Ethier
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.398 — ISO: .241 — OBP: 0.389

I was surprised to see just how good Ethier’s overall numbers are against righties this year. He has been a very good hitter in these spots, and he also has BvP on his side today. Ethier is 14-for-39 (.359 average) in his career against Kennedy with three home runs. Combine that with his cheap price tag and the above overall stats and you have a sneaky-solid play.

Secondary Plays:

Joc Pederson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.398 — ISO: .327 — OBP: 0.379

Adrian Gonzalez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.423 — ISO: .265 — OBP: 0.415

San Diego

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