MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 19

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-09-21 12:56:04

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

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St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 1:05 PM EST

St. Louis					Chicago Cubs
			Michael Wacha					Travis Wood
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC (0)					0.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.213	0.589	0.264	19.4%	SP vs. Left	0.228	0.628	0.280	25.10%
SP vs. Right	0.242	0.685	0.301	21.6%	SP vs. Right	0.274	0.800	0.352	20.60%
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs L		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Wacha

Wacha comes into this game with a solid 3.09 ERA over the last month. With that said, he also has a SIERA of 4.59 during that span along with a low strikeout rate of 18.6%. These are a few warning signs that make Wacha a tough play, in Wrigley, against a Cubs squad that posted six runs on him just two weeks ago. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $8,900 FD, $9,800 DK

Travis Wood

Wood will make the spot start this afternoon and is not a fantasy option as just a fill-in starter today. He will likely only make it a max of four to five innings in a perfect start. With that said, he does not have enough upside to warrant a roster spot in any format. Rating = 3

Salaries: $4,100 FD, $6,900 DK

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

EDIT: Wind appears to be blowing in at Wrigley and the total is now at 6.5. This adds a bit of value to Wacha, while batters from both teams take a hit here.

The Cardinals have a 4.46 team total against Wood and what is most likely to be a good portion of the game against the Cubs bullpen. Jhonny Peralta continues to be cheap and should be batting in the top of the order and makes a great elite play at the shortstop position.

Elite Plays:

Jhonny Peralta
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.216

Secondary Plays:

Thomas Pham
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.000

Stephen Piscotty
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.170

Chicago Cubs

EDIT: Wind appears to be blowing in at Wrigley and the total is now at 6.5. This adds a bit of value to Wacha, while batters from both teams take a hit here.

The Cubs are in a decent spot tonight against Wacha who they just saw recently. They have a team total 4.04 today and Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber are all elite plays, while a stack is not out of the question.

Elite Plays:

Kyle Schwarber
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.432 — ISO: 0.343

Anthony Rizzo
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: 0.268

Kris Bryant
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.381 — ISO: 0.221

Secondary Plays:

Miguel Montero
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.167

Dexter Fowler
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.181

NY Yankees at NY Mets – 1:05 PM EST

NY Yankees					NY Mets
			Michael Pineda					Noah Syndergaard
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM (-117)					7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.235	0.655	0.283	21.6%	SP vs. Left	0.237	0.663	0.286	21.30%
SP vs. Right	0.257	0.696	0.301	23.4%	SP vs. Right	0.219	0.638	0.277	30.70%
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Pineda

Pineda has struggled a bit since coming back from injury. In four starts, he has allowed four home runs and 14 earned runs. He should bounce back as his SIERA has been 3.60 during that span with a solid strikeout rate of 22%. Getting the win may be tough against Syndergaard today, but he is a fine tournament play. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8,600 FD, $10,200 DK

Noah Syndergaard

Syndergaard has been great this year. He comes into this matchup with a SIERA of 3.17 and an elite 26.2% strikeout rate. The upside is there, but he does face a tough matchup against the Yankees who are ranked seventh in team wOBA against righties (.320). Syndergaard is a slight favorite and does make for a top option on the early slate. Rating = 8

Salaries: $10,500 FD, $11,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Syndergaard has allowed under a .286 wOBA to batters from both sides of the plate this year. Avoid the bats against him today.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

None

NY Mets

Pineda has allowed a .311+ wOBA from both sides of the plate this year. This Mets squad does have a low team total (3.59) as this game should be a low scoring affair with these two pitchers going. The Mets are secondary plays only this afternoon.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Yoenis Cespedes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.426 — ISO: 0.373

Curtis Granderson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.227

Daniel Murphy
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.171

Miami at Washington – 4:05 PM EST

Miami					Washington
			Justin Nicolino					Jordan Zimmermann
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS (-194)					8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.286	0.748	0.328	15.1%	SP vs. Left	0.270	0.724	0.316	19.90%
SP vs. Right	0.272	0.820	0.347	5.9%	SP vs. Right	0.232	0.596	0.264	22.80%
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	WAS BvP		WAS vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Justin Nicolino

Nicolino comes into this game with a 3.48 ERA, but a very poor 5.57 SIERA during the last month. He is to be avoided in all formats as he has virtually no upside due to a 8.6% strikeout rate over that span. Avoid him against the Nationals today. Rating = 3

Salaries: $6,000 FD, $4,500 DK

Jordan Zimmermann

Zimmerman has been solid over the last month. He has posted a 3.34 SIERA over the last 30 days, while striking batters out with a solid 24% strikeout rate. He will look to bounce back after a rough start against the Phillies, and has a great matchup to do so against the Marlins. He makes a great pairing with Syndergaard for the early slate as well as a good option on single pitcher sites as he should see enough run support to get the win. Rating = 8

Salaries: $9,400 FD, $9,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Zimmermann has allowed a wOBA of .344 to left-handed bats this season. Dee Gordon and Justin Bour are in play, but are secondary only as the Marlins have a team total of just 3.42.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Dee Gordon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.328— ISO: 0.077

Justin Bour
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.224

Washington

The Nationals are in a great spot tonight against Nicolino who has allowed a wOBA of .347 to right-handed bats on the season. This Nationals squad is one of the hottest in baseball as they are in the top ten in wOBA over the last two weeks.

Elite Plays:

Anthony Rendon
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.073

Jason Werth
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.296

Ian Desmond
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.195

Secondary Plays:

Bryce Harper
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.427 — ISO: 0.245

Yunel Escobar
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.077

Arizona at San Francisco – 4:05 PM EST

Arizona					San Francisco
			Patrick Corbin					Mike Leake
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SFG (-135)					7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.190	0.562	0.244	25.4%	SP vs. Left	0.276	0.772	0.336	14.60%
SP vs. Right	0.286	0.811	0.349	22.1%	SP vs. Right	0.227	0.653	0.285	19.90%
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SF vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Patrick Corbin

Corbin has been very good for the Diamondbacks this year. He comes into the game with a SIERA of 3.29 and a solid strikeout rate of 22.9%. He gets a park boost by going up to San Francisco, and the Giants are a good matchup against lefties as they rank 15th in team wOBA against left-handed pitching. Corbin makes a decent SP2 for the early slate. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $6,900 FD, $9,700 DK

Mike Leake

Since coming back about a month ago, Leake has been decent. He has a 3.99 SIERA during that time, but the major problem is the lack of upside due to his low 16.4% strikeout rate. He could be viewed as an SP2 on the short slate, but there are better options as Corbin has higher upside in this game. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6,200 FD, $7,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Leake comes into this game allowing a wOBA of of .320 to left-handed bats. This Diamondbacks team has a very low team total of 3.29, making their bats tough to pay up for with Toronto on the same slate. David Peralta and Ender Inciarte are solid plays, while Paul Goldschmidt is always a tournament option.

Elite Plays:

David Peralta
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: 0.218

Ender Inciarte
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.110

Secondary Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.225

San Francisco

If you want to attack Corbin, getting right-handed bats in there would be a great route. He has allowed a .349 wOBA to righties on the season, putting Buster Posey as an elite play this afternoon.

Elite Plays:

Buster Posey
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.200

Secondary Plays:

Matt Duffy
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.294— ISO: 0.107

Marlon Byrd
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.353 — ISO: 0.226

Boston at Toronto – 4:07 PM EST

Boston					Toronto
			Wade Miley					R.A. Dickey
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR (-190)					9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.247	0.689	0.305	19.2%	SP vs. Left	0.229	0.686	0.303	14.80%
SP vs. Right	0.267	0.750	0.329	19.8%	SP vs. Right	0.246	0.740	0.323	18.60%
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Wade Miley

Miley is a serviceable starter for the Red Sox this year. Yet, he now has to take on the Blue Jays, in Rogers Centre as a lefty. Lefties have been crushed by Toronto this year as they have the highest team wOBA in the league against them. He is an easy avoid tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7,100 FD, $7,900 DK

R.A. Dickey

Dickey is not someone to focus much DFS attention on. He comes into the game sporting a 4.78 SIERA and a very low 14.5% strikeout rate. He has a tough matchup against the Red Sox who have a team wOBA of .319 and strikeout at a very low 17.5% rate. He is an easy avoid tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7,800 FD, $7,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

Boston

This game features one totals of the day. The Red Sox get a great matchup against Dickey who we can look at BvP as he is a knuckleballer. David Ortiz, Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts are all solid plays who have had success against Dickey in the past.

Elite Plays:

David Ortiz
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.416 — ISO: 0.323

Mookie Betts
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.345 — ISO: 0.187

Xander Bogaerts
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.090

Secondary Plays:

Dustin Pedroia
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.143

Toronto

The Blue Jays have the highest team total of the day slate at 5.02. Miley has allowed a wOBA of .327 to righties on the year. All the main guys are in play tonight and should be in a great spot to put up a big number.

Elite Plays:

Josh Donaldson
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.464 — ISO: 0.387

Jose Bautista
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.211

Edwin Encarnacion
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.184

Secondary Plays:

Kevin Pillar
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.288 — ISO: 0.085

Russell Martin
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.412 — ISO: 0.250

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