MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 26 - Page Three
Atlanta at Miami – 7:10 PM EST
| Atlanta | Miami | ||||||||
 | Julio Teheran |  | Justin Nicolino | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIA (-105) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.263 | 0.779 | 0.34 | 0.172 | SP vs. Left | 0.308 | 0.78 | 0.342 | 0.143 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.211 | 0.587 | 0.26 | 0.244 | SP vs. Right | 0.27 | 0.824 | 0.348 | 0.067 |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs L | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Teheran has not been great recently. Over the last month, he has posted a SIERA of 4.42 with a strikeout rate of 19.9%. Playing Teheran on the road is not the safest option as his ERA is more than two and a half runs higher away from home this year. Yet, his matchup against the Marlins is decent as they have been in the bottom third of the league offensively over the last month. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $8,600 FD, $8,300 DK
Nicolino has been a prime pitcher to attack in terms of offense against him this year. In his ten starts, he comes into this game with a 5.49 SIERA and the lowest strikeout rate on the slate at 8.6%. His value is basically zero at this point and should be avoided. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6,200 FD, $4,300 DK
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
Nicolino has been awful this year and has allowed a 15 earned runs in his last three starts (16 innings). He has allowed a wOBA of .342+ from both sides of the plate this year. This Braves squad could be a sneaky stack for a cheap price tonight as they do not feature many expensive bats, and will fly under the radar with most people using the Coors teams.
Elite Plays:
Cameron Maybin
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.143
Freddie Freeman
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295— ISO: 0.099
Secondary Plays:
Daniel Castro
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.156
Andrelton Simmons
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.242 — ISO: 0.020
Miami
Teheran has really struggled against left-handed bats this year (.385 wOBA allowed). Combine that with his struggles away from home and some of the cheap left-handed Marlins make for great plays tonight.
Elite Plays:
Justin Bour
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.220
Dee Gordon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.075
Secondary Plays:
Christian Yelich
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.125
Derek Dietrich
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.379 — ISO: 0.242
Milwaukee at St. Louis – 7:15 PM EST
| Milwaukee | St. Louis | ||||||||
 | Tyler Wagner |  | Jaime Garcia | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| STL (-250) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.167 | 0.486 | 0.224 | 0 | SP vs. Left | 0.27 | 0.699 | 0.311 | 0.219 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.571 | 1.692 | 0.717 | 0.143 | SP vs. Right | 0.207 | 0.569 | 0.253 | 0.186 |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs L | Batter Splits | STL vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Wagner has pitched once in the big leagues this year and was hit hard for five earned runs in less than four innings. He has pitched the rest of the year in Double-A with solid numbers, but the step up tonight is too large to trust him. Rating = 3.5
Garcia has had a great overall year for the Cardinals and has kept it up lately. Over the last month of play, he holds a SIERA of 3.87, yet has seen his strikeout rate drop a bit to 17.5%. He is never going to have elite strikeout numbers, which drops his overall upside a bit. This Brewers squad has really struggled against lefties this year (24th ranked in team wOBA), making Garcia a solid start for the night slate. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $8,800 FD, $9,600 DK
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
Garcia has done a good job of keeping batters from both sides of the plate to a low wOBA this year (sub .277). This Brewers squad features a 2.89 team total taking the Brewers out of consideration tonight.
Elite Plays:
None
Secondary Plays:
None
St. Louis
The Cardinals feature a very high 4.61 team total against Wagner tonight. Matt Carpenter and Jason Heyward make great plays, while Jhonny Peralta continues to be a solid source of value at the shortstop position.
Elite Plays:
Matt Carpenter
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.231
Jason Heyward
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.173
Secondary Plays:
Jhonny Peralta
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.114
LA Dodgers at Colorado – 8:10 PM EST
| LA Dodgers | Colorado | ||||||||
 | Brett Anderson |  | Kyle Kendrick | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAD (-166) | 11.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.277 | 0.666 | 0.297 | 0.17 | SP vs. Left | 0.296 | 0.897 | 0.385 | 0.15 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.271 | 0.737 | 0.32 | 0.156 | SP vs. Right | 0.268 | 0.782 | 0.341 | 0.120 |
| Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LA vs R | Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
This game is being played at Coors, enough said for the prospect of playing Brett Anderson. Rating = 3
Salaries: $6,800 FD, $5,800 DK
Kendrick has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball all season long. After 25 starts, he holds an ERA of 6.00+ on the year. Avoid him in Coors. Rating = 2
Salaries: $4,800 FD, $4,200 DK
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
All batters have crushed Kendrick this year (.371 from righties and .421 wOBA from lefties). The Dodgers will be the most popular stack of the day as they feature by far the highest team total at 6.13. Fade at your own risk tonight.
Elite Plays:
Editor’s Note: Adrian Gonzalez has been scratched from today’s lineup.
Adrian Gonzalez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.239
Corey Seager
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.475 — ISO: 0.256
Chase Utley
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.229
Andre Ethier
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.381 — ISO: 0.198
Secondary Plays:
Joc Pederson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.222
Yasmani Grandal
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.345 — ISO: 0.229
Colorado
The Rockies have the second highest team total on the slate at 5.37. Nolan Arenado is an elite play at the third base position, while Carlos Gonzalez makes a great play in the outfield as well.
Elite Plays:
Nolan Arenado
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.299 — ISO: 0.138
Carlos Gonzalez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.213 — ISO: 0.104
DJ LeMahieu
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: 0.056
Secondary Plays:
Cristhian Adames
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.118
Charlie Blackmon
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.123
Arizona at San Diego – 8:40 PM EST
| Arizona | San Diego | ||||||||
 | Jeremy Hellickson |  | Robbie Erlin | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| SDP (-110) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.249 | 0.714 | 0.311 | 0.187 | SP vs. Left | 0.293 | 0.798 | 0.344 | 0.173 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.275 | 0.818 | 0.353 | 0.196 | SP vs. Right | 0.305 | 0.82 | 0.357 | 0.169 |
| Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs L | Batter Splits | SDP BvP | SD vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Hellickson takes the mound tonight and gets to pitch in San Diego, which boosts his value a bit. On the season though, Hellickson has struggled as he comes into this game with a 4.15 SIERA. His strikeout rate is nothing special as well at 19.2%. While the matchup is still solid as the Padres are still in the bottom third of the league over the last month, Hellickson should still only be viewed as a tournament SP2 tonight. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6,800 FD, $6,200 DK
Erlin made one start this year and had to pitch in Coors where he was lit up for seven earned runs. He didn’t pitch well in the minors this year either, so expecting a good start after his first is not something to take a chance on. Rating = 4
Salaries: $4,900 FD, $4,600 DK
Batter Grind Down
Arizona
The Diamondbacks are in a great spot tonight against Erlin who has been crushed by righties this year (.488 wOBA). While the value is dropped a bit playing in a pitcher friendly park, the matchup makes Goldschmidt and Pollock elite options tonight.
Elite Plays:
Paul Goldschmidt
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.469 — ISO: 0.270
A.J. Pollock
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.195
Secondary Plays:
Phil Gosselin
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.455 — ISO: 0.222
Wellington Castillo
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: 0.288
San Diego
Hellickson has allowed a .341 wOBA to left-handed bats this year and a .325 wOBA to righties. Justin Upton and Will Myers are in play tonight, but the Padres feature a team total under four so do not go crazy with the San Diego bats tonight.
Elite Plays:
None
Secondary Plays:
Justin Upton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.230
Wil Myers
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.209
Seattle at LA Angels – 9:05 PM EST
| Seattle | LA Angels | ||||||||
 | Felix Hernandez |  | Andrew Heaney | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAA (-105) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.212 | 0.597 | 0.265 | 0.227 | SP vs. Left | 0.241 | 0.61 | 0.269 | 0.243 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.217 | 0.616 | 0.272 | 0.285 | SP vs. Right | 0.255 | 0.745 | 0.325 | 0.153 |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs L | Batter Splits | LAA BvP | ANA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
King Felix has had a year he wants to forget for his standards, yet has still pitched well. Over the last month, he has posted a 3.60 SIERA and 22.6% strikeout rate. He has a matchup today against the Angels who are ranked 24th in the league against righties. He makes a great play if you are comfortable spending the price on someone who has bit lit up at times. Rating = 8
Salaries: $11,000 FD, $11,100 DK
Heaney has struggled over the last month. He has posted a 4.34 SIERA during that span while striking batters out at an average 19.9% rate. He is too risky tonight even in a decent matchup against the Mariners. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $7,000 FD, $7,500 DK
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
Heaney has struggled and the Mariners have a 3.72. Nelson Cruz is the elite option in the outfield as he has crushed lefties for a .460 wOBA on the year.
Elite Plays:
Nelson Cruz
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.460 — ISO: 0.314
Secondary Plays:
Franklin Gutierrez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.431 — ISO: 0.330
Mark Trumbo
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.208
LA Angels
Felix has struggled at times this year, but he is still Felix Hernandez. With that said, Mike Trout is always an option, especially at DK where he is a bit cheap.
Elite Plays:
None
Secondary Plays:
Mike Trout
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.297