MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 2 - Page Two

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2015-08-02 13:39:33

Detroit at Baltimore – 1:35 PM EST

Detroit					Baltimore
			Daniel Norris					Ubaldo Jimenez
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL (-174)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.259	0.799	0.353	0.129	SP vs. Left	0.241	0.747	0.335	0.209
SP vs. Right	0.241	0.778	0.341	0.177	SP vs. Right	0.259	0.705	0.315	0.23
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Daniel Norris – The key piece in the David Price trade, Detroit is wasting no time in getting this top prospect into their rotation. He struggled in five starts for Toronto earlier this season and has underwhelming numbers at AAA this year. Long term he is expected to be a very good major league pitcher, but until he shows something at a high level, he will be difficult to trust, especially going against the Orioles offense. His pedigree is strong enough you could make a case for playing him in a large field tournament on the off chance that he puts it all together in a hurry, but it’s very low probability. Pitcher Rating – 4.5

Salaries: $5,600 FD, $4,900 DK

Ubaldo Jimenez – Jimenez had a strong stretch of starts in June and early July, but things have gone bad in a hurry with 16 runs allowed in his last three starts. Working in his favor is his 57.5% ground ball rate and 3.17 xFIP against right-handed batters facing a Detroit team loaded with right-handers. He still has big game upside, but it comes with plenty of downside as well. Pitcher Rating – 5.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 113 – SIERA: 3.63 – ERA: 3.73 – K%: 22.2% – BB%: 7.8% – HR/9: 1.03

Salaries: $7,800 FD, $7,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

I can’t call any of these Tigers bats elite plays against Jimenez. They are likely to score some runs, and certainly could put up a bunch, but with Yoenis Cespedes gone, and JD Martinez hobbling, it’s not the same offense as it was a few weeks ago.

Secondary Plays:

Ian Kinsler – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .335 – OBP: .354 – ISO: .115 – wRC+:112
Victor Martinez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .266 – OBP: .287 – ISO: .111 – wRC+: 64

Baltimore

Adam Jones – Jones has been hot for the past several weeks and has excellent numbers against left-handed pitchers the past two years.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .410 – OBP: .388 – ISO: .247 – wRC+: 164

Manny Machado – Machado is a reverse splits hitter, but he has improved his skills dramatically against left-handed pitchers and is providing big counting stats from the top of this batting order.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .353 – OBP: .347 – ISO: .186 – wRC+: 125

Secondary Plays:

Nolan Reimold – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .383 – OBP: .378 – ISO: .225 – wRC+: 145
Matt Wieters – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .328 – OBP: .278 – ISO: .229 – wRC+: 107

Seattle at Minnesota – 2:10 PM EST

Seattle					Minnesota
			Hisashi Iwakuma					Mike Pelfrey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SEA (-133)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.269	0.716	0.313	0.186	SP vs. Left	0.255	0.745	0.334	0.118
SP vs. Right	0.221	0.624	0.273	0.24	SP vs. Right	0.327	0	0.369	0.094
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Hisashi Iwakuma – Iwakuma is a pitcher with excellent control who has been hurt by an absurd 21.6% HR/FB rate. Despite having a high ground ball rate, he has struggled with allowing home runs throughout his career, but never anywhere near the rate of this season. Before giving up six runs on 10 hits in his last start, he had looked like he had his season turned around with three good starts against tough opponents. The Twins are a right-handed heavy lineup which is good news for Iwakuma. He is not an ace, but does look like one of the stronger options on today’s slate. Pitcher Rating – 7
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 47 – SIERA: 3.57 – ERA: 5.10 – K%: 18.8% – BB%: 4.1% – HR/9: 2.08

Salaries: $7,900 FD, $6,800 DK

Mike Pelfrey – Pelfrey’s 54% ground ball rate has been enough to keep him serviceable as a major league pitcher, but he is absolutely no use to us, as an 11.1% strikeout rate is unacceptable. The low home run numbers make him tough to stack against, but he is at the mercy of BABIP and a candidate to get bombarded every time he takes the mound. Pitcher Rating – 2.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 110 – SIERA: 4.60 – ERA: 3.92 – K%: 11.1% – BB%: 7.3% – HR/9: 0.57

Salaries: $5,500 FD, $4,500 DK

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Mike Pelfrey’s numbers against left-handed batters are brutal, with a 12% strikeout rate and 14.4% walk rate, leading to a 5.33 xFIP. All the Seattle left-handed batters are in play, and Nelson Cruz needs to be considered as well.

Kyle Seager – Seager has started to turn his season around with a .350 wOBA in July including ten multi-hit games.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .316 – OBP: .321 – ISO: .158 – wRC+: 103

Nelson Cruz – Because of how obscene his numbers are against left-handed pitching, it is easy to forget that he is really good against righties as well.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .380 – OBP: .354 – ISO: .243 – wRC+: 148

Robinson Cano – Cano made it back into the lineup last night, and looks to pick up where he left off after a tremendous July where he had a .432 wOBA and 184 wRC+.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .340 – OBP: .331 – ISO: .181 – wRC+: 121

Secondary Plays:

Seth Smith – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .341 – OBP: .337 – ISO: .198 – wRC+: 121

Minnesota

Brian Dozier – Dozier has to be considered as a play against almost anyone right now, as he is hitting home runs and scoring runs at an elite level from the second base position.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .342 – OBP: .310 – ISO: .246 – wRC+: 119

Secondary Plays:

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM EST

Chicago Cubs					Milwaukee
			Clayton Richard					Kyle Lohse
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.211	0.497	0.233	0.095	SP vs. Left	0.259	0.765	0.333	0.169
SP vs. Right	0.333	0	0.41	0.083	SP vs. Right	0.263	0.732	0.32	0.173
Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Clayton Richard – Richard has not pitched regularly in the majors since 2013, so there’s not a lot of recent data to go on. Looking at his career numbers, he has a very low strikeout rate against right-handed batters, with a decent ground ball rate, but not high enough to make up for his hittable stuff. He comes in near the bottom of today’s pitcher rankings and should not be used. Pitcher Ranking – 3
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 15 – SIERA: 4.44 – ERA: 5.40 – K%: 8.7% – BB%: 7.3% – HR/9: 1.20

Salaries: $5,500 FD, $4,000 DK

Kyle Lohse – Lohse has had a lot of bad luck this year with a .311 BABIP and 15.3% HR/FB rate. He’s not as bad as his 6.24 ERA would indicate, but his 4.34 SIERA shows that he is still a below average pitchers, even when things go well. The Cubs can be shut down on any given day, but Lohse’s low strikeout rate doesn’t give him enough upside to be worth the risk. PITCHER RATING – 4.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 119 – SIERA: 4.34 – ERA: 6.24 – K%: 15.9% – BB%: 5.6% – HR/9: 1.81

Salaries: $5,000 FD, $4,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Lohse has some interesting splits though they are not exactly reverse splits. He allows more contact to right-handed batters, while against left-handers, he has a better strikeout rate but allows more fly balls.

Anthony Rizzo – Rizzo has homered in four straight games and is in the conversation for the top overall play of the day.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .383 – OBP: .377 – ISO: .254 – wRC+: 144

Kyle Schwarber – It is too small of a sample size to put much stock in Schwarber’s ridiculous numbers to this point, but he is getting a great lineup spot and is a strong play around the industry at the catcher position. He hit his fourth home run last night.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .491 – OBP: .467 – ISO: .302 – wRC+: 219

Secondary Plays:

Kris Bryant – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .344 – OBP: .353 – ISO: .182 – wRC+: 117
Dexter Fowler – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .312 – OBP: .320 – ISO: .159 – wRC+: 95
Chris Coghlan – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .345 – ISO: .193 – wRC+: 117

Milwaukee

Ryan Braun – The Brewers have not been playing well, but facing Clayton Richard gives them a good shot to get back on track. Braun still has very good numbers against left-handed pitching.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .397 – OBP: .393 – ISO: .254 – wRC+: 154

Jonathan Lucroy – Lucroy’s numbers are down this season in a small sample size against left-handed pitching, but his historical data is very strong. I’ve included his 2014 numbers, so you can see what he’s done in the past against lefties in a larger sample size.
2015 vs LHP – AB: 48 – wOBA: .242 – OBP: .245 – ISO: .104 – wRC+: 47
2014 vs LHP – AB: 138 – wOBA: .369 – OBP: .374 – ISO: .159 – wRC+: 132

Secondary Plays:

Jean Segura – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .314 – OBP: .329 – ISO: .097 – wRC+: 96

NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM EST

NY Yankees					Chicago White Sox
			Ivan Nova					Jeff Samardzija
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHW (-125)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.31	0.794	0.348	0.083	SP vs. Left	0.25	0.695	0.305	0.219
SP vs. Right	0.281	0	0.421	0.172	SP vs. Right	0.235	0.645	0.284	0.208
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CWS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Ivan Nova – The high SIERA of 4.85 shows how fortunate Nova has been this season, but the luck unlikely to continue with his low strikeout rate. Though it’s a small sample size, against left-handed batters his strikeout rate is a pathetic 5.1%. The White Sox have been one of the hottest hitting teams in the league over the past couple weeks, and Nova can be ignored in all formats today. Pitcher Rating – 3
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 34 – SIERA: 4.85 – ERA: 3.38 – K%: 12.2% – BB%: 8.2% – HR/9: 1.04

Salaries: $6,900 FD, $5,900 DK

Jeff Samardzija – Samardzija has been pitching better of late, but this Yankees team is not an easy matchup for him. On the good side of things, he has pitched at least seven innings with no more than four runs in allowed in his last nine starts. The bad news is, he has lost a lot of his ground ball tendencies that he used to have, and is allowing a lot of hard contact and fly balls to left-handed batters. There is a lot of downside here facing the Yankees powerful lineup. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 148 – SIERA: 3.87 – ERA: 3.94 – K%: 18.2% – BB%: 4.4% – HR/9: 0.91

Salaries: $9,000 FD, $8,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury – Ellsbury is getting on base at a high clip against right-handed pitching with his elite plate discipline and speed.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .341 – OBP: .373 – ISO: .091 – wRC+: 115

Brett Gardner – Gardner follows Ellsbury with great on-base skills and has decent power as well.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .369 – OBP: .377 – ISO: .176 – wRC+: 135

Mark Teixeira – Teixiera’s power resurgence continues with an exceptional .358 ISO against right-handed pitching.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .421 – OBP: .367 – ISO: .358 – wRC+: 171

Secondary Plays:

Brian McCann – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .328 – ISO: .218 – wRC+: 117

Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu – Abreu is hitting right-handers well with a .373 wOBA and has been in the middle of the White Sox hot streak with a 12-game hit streak.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .373 – OBP: .357 – ISO: .212 – wRC+: 137

Adam Eaton – Eaton has also been on fire during the White Sox streak with 14 hits in the last seven games and had a .415 wOBA and .421 OBO in the month of July.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .365 – OBP: .369 – ISO: .185 – wRC+: 131

Secondary Plays:

Melky Cabrera – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .322 – OBP: .335 – ISO: .107 – wRC+: 101
Adam LaRoche – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .325 – OBP: .337 – ISO: .162 – wRC+: 104

Arizona at Houston – 2:10 PM EST

Arizona					Houston
			Robbie Ray					Collin McHugh
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU (-144)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.287	0.76	0.327	0.184	SP vs. Left	0.224	0.623	0.277	0.207
SP vs. Right	0.264	0.781	0.339	0.182	SP vs. Right	0.246	0.694	0.306	0.238
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R		Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Robbie Ray – Ray has pitched surprisingly well for Arizona this season, but a lot of success is due to a low 3.8% HR/FB rate, which is likely to regress sooner than later. He is allowing a 45.6% fly ball rate to right-handed batters, and this Houston lineup has tremendous power from both sides of the plate. Due to Houston’s strikeout tendency, Ray could be a longshot tournament play if you want to hope he can hold the low HR/FB% for one more start. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 66 – SIERA: 3.75 – ERA: 2.70 – K%: 21.5% – BB%: 6.3% – HR/9: 0.41

Salaries: $6,900 FD, $7,300 DK

Collin McHugh – McHugh has regressed significantly from his breakout 2014 season with a drop of 7% in his strikeout rate. While he’s shown occasional flashes of getting back to his previous level, he has been inconsistent and hard to trust. Everything about his skill set looks average. On a day without a lot of good pitching options, he’s not completely off the board, but don’t expect too much out of him. PITCHER RATING – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 132 – SIERA: 3.95 – ERA: 4.43 – K%: 18.1% – BB%: 5.9% – HR/9: 1.02

Salaries: $8,500 FD, $7,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Paul Goldschmidt – McHugh has been weaker against right-handed batters with a .359 wOBA, while Goldschmidt is an elite hitter in all matchups.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .371 – OBP: .329 – ISO: .244 – wRC+: 140

AJ Pollock – Like Goldschmidt, Pollock is hitting with authority against both right and left-handed pitching. He missed Saturday’s game with a sore hamstring, so be sure to check and see if he is in the lineup today.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .355 – OBP: .362 – ISO: .150 – wRC+: 123

David Peralta – Peralta has been hitting right-handers well all year and has been in good form with a .440 wOBA in July. 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .373 – OBP: .355 – ISO: .233 – wRC+: 135

Secondary Plays:

Houston

Carlos Correa – Correa just keeps hitting, cementing his status as a top tier shortstop. He hit two more home runs last night giving him 12 HR and 32 RBI in his first 46 major league games.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .424 – OBP: .371 – ISO: .323 – wRC+: 176

Jose Altuve – Houston’s middle infield is the best in the game for fantasy purposes, especially against left-handed pitching. Altuve’s on base skills are off the charts against lefties.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .392 – OBP: .422 – ISO: .151 – wRC+: 154

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Gomez – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .294 – OBP: .309 – ISO: .136 – wRC+: 82

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