MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 30 - Page Two

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2015-08-30 13:50:50

Miami at Washington – 1:35 PM EST

Miami					Washington
			Brad Hand					Stephen Strasburg
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS (-260)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.219	0.574	0.257	0.191	SP vs. Left	0.23	0.647	0.286	0.239
SP vs. Right	0.283	0.779	0.34	0.131	SP vs. Right	0.255	0.709	0.31	0.299
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	WAS BvP		WAS vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Brad Hand – We have seen some unexpected success from Hand recently. Outside of a rough start at St. Louis, he has been very good in August. His high ground ball rate and low walk rate is a recipe for success. For DFS purposes however, his low strikeout rate limits his upside. Given the tough matchup with Strasburg on the road, he can be avoided today. Pitcher Rating – 4.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 76 – SIERA: 3.86 – ERA: 4.23 – K%: 16.0% – BB%: 5.0% – HR/9: 0.35

Salaries: $6,000 FD, $4,300 DK

Stephen Strasburg – It feels dangerous to officially declare that Strasburg is back, but that is what we are going to do. You are taking on some risk, just due to how bad he was earlier in the season, but over the past month he remarkable numbers, every bit the ace we remember him being; a 34% strikeout rate, 3.2% walk rate and a 2.14 SIERA. He has a great matchup with the Marlins, and is a heavy favorite. He is a top option in all formats, especially in tournaments with his high upside potential. Pitcher Rating – 9

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 87 – SIERA: 3.17 – ERA: 4.14 – K%: 25.6% – BB%: 5.7% – HR/9: 0.93

Salaries: $10,100 FD, $10,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Miami

With Strasburg back in top form, it is safest to avoid the Marlins hitters today

Secondary Plays:

Washington

While Brad Hand has been pitching well, the right-handed heavy Nationals lineup is a good way to attack him. He is allowing a .331 wOBA to right-handed batters with a low 12.1% strikeout rate. I am not going to go overboard with them, but you can consider using them here and there to fill in your rosters. Ryan Zimmerman is the first player to look at as he has been on a roll with three home runs in his last five games.

Elite Plays

Ryan Zimmerman – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .360 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .247 – wRC+:129

Secondary Plays:

Ian Desmond –2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .329 – OBP: .294 – ISO: .212 – wRC+:108
Wilson Ramos – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .250 – OBP: .265 – ISO: .082 – wRC+:54
Jayson Werth – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .248 – OBP: .214 – ISO: .192 – wRC+:53
Bryce Harper – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .421 – OBP: .436 – ISO: .225 – wRC+:171

Colorado at Pittsburgh – 1:35 PM EST

Colorado					Pittsburgh
			Jorge De La Rosa					Charlie Morton
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT (-199)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.222	0.622	0.277	0.244	SP vs. Left	0.257	0.738	0.328	0.187
SP vs. Right	0.242	0.761	0.333	0.175	SP vs. Right	0.242	0.669	0.299	0.178
Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jorge De La Rosa – De La Rosa’s high ground ball rate is not enough to make up for his wildness, especially as his strikeout rate has dropped to 15.7% over the past month. The Pirates offense is loaded with strong right-handed hitters, and it is tough to see him having much success here today. Pitcher Rating – 4

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 123 – SIERA: 4.27 – ERA: 4.61 – K%: 20.5% – BB%: 11.3% – HR/9: 1.10

Salaries: $6,400 FD, $6,900 DK

Charlie Morton – What is happening here? The classic low strikeout, high ground ball pitcher has out of nowhere boosted his strikeout rate to 26% over the past month, while maintaining his low walk rate and a 51% ground ball rate. That has left him with a 2.83 SIERA in August, and some real upside. I still think the safe play is to assume the strikeouts come back down to his historical level, but as a strong favorite at home against a weak Rockies lineup, he can be considered in cash games, and perhaps even tournaments if you believe this strikeout jump is real. Pitcher Rating – 7

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 100 – SIERA: 3.75 – ERA: 4.20 – K%: 17.3% – BB%: 7.0% – HR/9: 0.80

Salaries: $6,900 FD, $7,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Charlie Morton does not look like someone to pick on right now. I’m willing to consider Carlos Gonzalez in any format based on how good he has been, and Charlie Blackmon can be considered a secondary play, but I will be mostly staying away from the Rockies.

Elite Plays

Carlos Gonzalez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .411 – OBP: .360 – ISO: .327 – wRC+:148

Secondary Plays:

Charlie Blackmon –2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .371 – OBP: .371 – ISO: .186 – wRC+:120

Pittsburgh

The Pirates right-handed heavy lineup sets up well against De La Rosa, who has allowed a career .347 wOBA to righties and has a high 12% walk rate this year. His high ground ball rate helps him, but I expect Pittsburgh to give him a lot of trouble, and get into the weak Rockies bullpen.

Elite Plays

Andrew McCutchen – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .439 – OBP: .444 – ISO: .226 – wRC+:187
Starling Marte –2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .344 – OBP: .323 – ISO: .196 – wRC+:122
Francisco Cervelli – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .431 – OBP: .429 – ISO: .213 – wRC+:181
Jung-Ho Kang – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .331 – OBP: .344 – ISO: .154 – wRC+:113

Secondary Plays:

Aramis Ramirez –2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .276 – OBP: .265 – ISO: .193 – wRC+:70
Josh Harrison – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .350 – OBP: .392 – ISO: .087 – wRC+:126

NY Yankees at Atlanta – 1:35 PM EST

NY Yankees					Atlanta
			Nathan Eovaldi					Julio Teheran
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY (-161)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.3	0.774	0.339	0.161	SP vs. Left	0.259	0.76	0.332	0.18
SP vs. Right	0.256	0.672	0.297	0.177	SP vs. Right	0.216	0.607	0.269	0.236
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Nathan Eovaldi – Eovaldi has looked great in his last two starts, and gets a favorable start at Atlanta against a weak Braves offense. He has 15 strikeouts in his last 15 innings, although prior to that he was pretty consistently average in that department, going through a long stretch of decent, but not great starts. Everything about his season numbers looks average. He clearly has upside today, but the safe play is to view him as the 6 inning, 3 run, 5 strikeout type of pitcher that he has been most of the season. He is an acceptable play as an SP2. Pitcher Rating – 6.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 144 – SIERA: 4.00 – ERA: 4.00 – K%: 17.2% – BB%: 6.9% – HR/9: 0.63

Salaries: $8,200 FD, $7,400 DK

Julio Teheran – Teheran has two factors working in his favor, and one working against him. On the plus side, he has been much better at home all season and he has been pitching his best ball of the year recently, with a 3.39 SIERA, 22.5% strikeout rate and 3.9% walk rate over the past month. On the down side, he faces a high powered Yankees offense that can throw a lot of left-handed batters at him, and that is where he struggles. He lands somewhere in the middle of the pack today and is certainly too risky for cash games. He is a possible tournament play, but the Yankees certainly have the potential to get to him. Pitcher Rating – 6.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 157 – SIERA: 4.09 – ERA: 4.29 – K%: 20.5% – BB%: 8.2% – HR/9: 1.20

Salaries: $8,600 FD, $8,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Julio Teheran has been very good against right-handed batters, but does have trouble with lefties, allowing a .376 wOBA with a 16.8% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. The Yankees lefties can be used in cash games where their prices are reasonable, and for tournament upside with their power bats.

Elite Plays

Brett Gardner – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .342 – OBP: .357 – ISO: .153 – wRC+:117
Brian McCann – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .340 – OBP: .321 – ISO: .230 – wRC+:116

Secondary Plays:

Jacoby Ellsbury –2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .319 – OBP: .338 – ISO: .107 – wRC+:101
Carlos Beltran – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .353 – OBP: .340 – ISO: .200 – wRC+:125
Didi Gregorius – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .306 – OBP: .317 – ISO: .104 – wRC+:92

Atlanta

Eovaldi has always had some trouble with left-handed batters, and is allowing a .345 wOBA this season. It’s tough to get excited about playing any Braves hitters, but Freddie Freeman is worth a look, and their other left-handed batters can be considered if you find them at a discount.

Elite Plays

Freddie Freeman – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .376 – OBP: .358 – ISO: .233 – wRC+:141

Secondary Plays:

Nick Markakis –2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .344 – OBP: .390 – ISO: .083 – wRC+:119
A.J. Pierzynski – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .344 – OBP: .342 – ISO: .154 – wRC+:119

Houston at Minnesota – 2:10 PM EST

Houston					Minnesota
			Lance McCullers					Ervin Santana
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU (-125)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.216	0.591	0.264	0.297	SP vs. Left	0.286	0.804	0.348	0.167
SP vs. Right	0.25	0.731	0.317	0.2	SP vs. Right	0.236	0.696	0.308	0.233
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R		Batter Splits			MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance McCullers – McCullers has been a pleasant surprise for Houston I his rookie season, striking out over a batter per inning to go with a 3.12 ERA that is only slightly below his excellent 3.46 SIERA. He only has one disaster start on his ledger for the year to go with 13 starts of three runs or less. Minnesota is better suited to hitting against left-handed pitching making McCullers an intriguing option today. He is a strong play for tournaments. Pitcher Rating – 7

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 93 – SIERA: 3.46 – ERA: 3.12 – K%: 25.1% – BB%: 8.1% – HR/9: 0.43

Salaries: $6,700 FD, $9,300 DK

Ervin Santana – Santana has put up six bad starts in a row, allowing 31 runs in 30 innings. That’s really all you need to know. He is unplayable while he’s a rut like this. Pitcher Rating – 1.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 58 – SIERA: 5.05 – ERA: 6.05 – K%: 13.3% – BB%: 8.4% – HR/9: 1.71

Salaries: $6,900 FD, $4,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Feel free to load up on Houston bats with the way Ervin Santana has looked recently. He has been especially bad against left-handed batters, allowing a .398 wOBA and 5.69 xFIP, but he’s nothing special against right-handers either with a .325 wOBA allowed.

Elite Plays

Carlos Correa (questionable to play) – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .356 – OBP: .338 – ISO: .217 – wRC+:128
Colby Rasmus – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .310 – OBP: .276 – ISO: .222 – wRC+:96
Luis Valbuena – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .339 – OBP: .317 – ISO: .230 – wRC+:116

Secondary Plays:

Jose Altuve –2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .306 – OBP: .318 – ISO: .101 – wRC+:93
Evan Gattis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .325 – OBP: .282 – ISO: .231 – wRC+:106

Minnesota

Lance McCullers is one of the better pitchers going today, and the Twins do not line up well against right-handed pitching.

Secondary Plays:

Cincinnati at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM EST

Cincinnati					Milwaukee
			John Lamb					Wily Peralta
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL (-123)					9
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.286	1.018	0.43	0.313	SP vs. Left	0.299	0.841	0.365	0.163
SP vs. Right	0.327	0.907	0.388	0.271	SP vs. Right	0.238	0.659	0.297	0.17
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

John Lamb – I don’t know what to make of Lamb through his first three career starts. He has an excellent 21:5 K:BB ratio, but has been hit hard, allowing a home run in each game along with 11 runs in his 16 innings. I think he has some upside against this Brewers team, although it is very risky. I am always willing to take a shot on a guy with a good K:BB ratio in tournaments, just be aware it is low probability to work out with a young pitcher. Pitcher Rating – 5.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 16 – SIERA: 3.20 – ERA: 6.60 – K%: 28.0% – BB%: 6.7% – HR/9: 1.65

Salaries: $5,200 FD, $5,300 DK

Wily Peralta – Peralta is a guy I really liked coming into the season as I was hoping he would build on his 2014 season where he brought his strikeout rate up to a solid point to accompany his good ground ball skills. Unfortunately, he has taken a big step back, all the way down to a 12.9% strikeout rate. After allowing six runs (four earned) on Tuesday, they said he may be going through a dead arm phase, and yet he’s still taking the mound taoday. Stay far away until he proves himself healthy and effective. Pitcher Rating – 2.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 85 – SIERA: 4.25 – ERA: 4.55 – K%: 12.9% – BB%: 7.2% – HR/9: 1.16

Salaries: $6,500 FD, $4,700 DK

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Wily Peralta has been awful against left-handed batters with a .374 wOBA allowed and a low 11.8% strikeout rate. He loses much of his ground ball ability against lefties as well, making Joey Votto and Jay Bruce among the top plays of the day.

Elite Plays

Joey Votto – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .428 – OBP: .450 – ISO: .252 – wRC+:173
Jay Bruce – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .330 – OBP: .313 – ISO: .234 – wRC+:106

Secondary Plays:

Todd Frazier –2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .337 – OBP: .315 – ISO: .214 – wRC+:111

Milwaukee

John Lamb’s strikeout rate makes it tough to want to go against him, but he is allowing high line drive and fly ball rates to right-handed hitters in his small sample size, so I’ll consider the big righties as tournament plays. Both Jonathan Lucroy and Khris Davis have been much better historically against lefties than what their current numbers show.

Elite Plays

Ryan Braun – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .422 – OBP: .411 – ISO: .261 – wRC+:167

Secondary Plays:

Jonathan Lucroy – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .235 – OBP: .250 – ISO: .090 – wRC+:40
Khris Davis – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .241 – OBP: .228 – ISO: .171 – wRC+:44

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