MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 9 - Page Three

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2015-08-09 14:22:21

Cincinnati at Arizona – 4:10 PM EST

Cincinnati					Arizona
			Anthony Desclafani					Patrick Corbin
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ARI (-150)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.266	0.811	0.351	0.173	SP vs. Left	0.286	0.946	0.404	0.25
SP vs. Right	0.251	0.662	0.288	0.182	SP vs. Right	0.245	0.766	0.331	0.24
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs L		Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Anthony DeSclafani – DeSclafani has shown glimpses of putting things together, including a nine strikeout performance against St. Louis in his last start. However, until he shows more consistency, he should be considered to be the average pitcher that his peripherals show. Arizona is a tough ballpark for pitchers, making him an easy avoid today. Pitcher Rating – 4

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 126 – SIERA: 4.37 – ERA: 3.71 – K%: 17.7% – BB%: 8.6% – HR/9: 0.79

Salaries: $7,100 FD, $7,200 DK

Patrick Corbin – Corbin had looked great in his return from Tommy John surgery until his last start in Washington where he couldn’t make it out of the second inning. That highlights the risk you’re taking in rostering a player who is still working off the rust of a long rehab process. There is certainly upside here as Corbin was beginning to establish himself as an ace prior to his injury and flashed that same potential in his first few starts this season. I personally won’t consider using him today as I think the risk outweighs the reward, but I can see the case for using him in a large field tournament on the chance that he has his stuff working today. Pitcher Rating – 5.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 29 – SIERA: 3.16 – ERA: 3.99 – K%: 24.2% – BB%: 5.7% – HR/9: 1.84

Salaries: $6,500 FD, $7,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Todd Frazier – Frazier has elite upside in a great hitter’s park against a left-handed pitcher.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .393 – OBP: .292 – ISO: .383 – wRC+:151

Secondary Plays:

Joey Votto – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: 392 – OBP: .430 – ISO: .155 – wRC+:149

Arizona

Paul Goldschmidt – First base is loaded today, but don’t ignore the potential of Goldschmidt, whose price is down at several sites.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: 405 – OBP: .440 – ISO: .219 – wRC+:158

David Peralta – DeSclafani has allowed a .341 wOBA to left-handed batters, and Peralta continues to display great skills against righties with power upside.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: 373 – OBP: .356 – ISO: .230 – wRC+:135

Secondary Plays:

Ender Inciarte – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: 339 – OBP: .340 – ISO: .124 – wRC+:112

Texas at Seattle – 4:10 PM EST

Texas					Seattle
			Colby Lewis					Felix Hernandez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SEA (-162)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.296	0.824	0.356	0.147	SP vs. Left	0.211	0.574	0.257	0.23
SP vs. Right	0.263	0	0.329	0.217	SP vs. Right	0.21	0.595	0.264	0.297
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R		Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Colby Lewis – Lewis has two disaster starts surrounding a run of excellent pitching over the past month. He allowed seven runs with three homers in his last start against Houston. Before that, he had four quality starts with a 26:3 K:BB ratio, which came after allowing 10 runs in four innings to the Angels. As a fly ball pitcher who keeps his pitches around the strike zone, it is reasonable to expect those kinds of swings. He certainly has the potential for a quality start in a pitchers park in Seattle, but there is a lot of risk. As a heavy road underdog with blowup potential, I am going to avoid him today, but he’s certainly not one of the worst pitchers going. Pitcher Rating – 5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 138 – SIERA: 4.12 – ERA: 4.68 – K%: 18.0% – BB%: 4.5% – HR/9: 1.24

Salaries: $6,800 FD, $7,800 DK

Felix Hernandez – It feels like a bit of a down season for King Felix; his strikeout rate is down a couple points and his walk rate is up a bit. A 3.13 ERA is a disappointment after a 2.14 mark last season, but don’t forget about him. I have him ranked behind the big arms of Scherzer, Kluber, Archer and Arrieta, but Felix is still an ace. A 56% ground ball rate coupled with a strong strikeout rate at home in a good ballpark is a great combination. He has 15 starts this season with two runs or less allowed, and we could easily see one of those today. Pitcher Rating – 8

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 143 – SIERA: 3.16 – ERA: 3.13 – K%: 24.1% – BB%: 7.0% – HR/9: 0.81

Salaries: $11,000 FD, $10,500 DK

Batter Grind Down

Texas

While Felix Hernandez has looked hittable at times this season, it’s very tough to recommend any Texas batters with such better plays elsewhere.

Secondary Plays:

Seattle

Robinson Cano – Colby Lewis has big splits, with just a 13.4% strikeout rate against left-handed batters. Cano continues to hit at an elite pace with a .417 wOBA over the past month.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: 341 – OBP: .334 – ISO: .181 – wRC+:121

Nelson Cruz – Despite the lack of platoon advantage, Cruz is a huge upside play against a home run prone pitcher.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: 395 – OBP: .365 – ISO: .252 – wRC+:159

Secondary Plays:

Kyle Seager – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: 318 – OBP: .323 – ISO: .163 – wRC+:105

Philadelphia at San Diego – 4:10 PM EST

Philadelphia					San Diego
			Jerome Williams					Andrew Cashner
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SDP (-180)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.302	0.801	0.354	0.139	SP vs. Left	0.26	0.788	0.34	0.18
SP vs. Right	0.298	0	0.362	0.16	SP vs. Right	0.235	0.613	0.271	0.203
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R		Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SD vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jerome Williams – Williams somehow managed to keep the Dodgers in check in his last start, but don’t let that scare you away from playing against him. He is one of the most hittable pitchers in the league. These are his ERA numbers over the past four seasons; 6.09, 4.77, 4.57, 4.58. Even pitching in San Diego, he cannot be considered a viable option. Pitcher Rating – 2

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 85 – SIERA: 4.54 – ERA: 6.09 – K%: 13.0% – BB%: 5.8% – HR/9: 1.79

Salaries: $4,800 FD, $4,300 DK

Andrew Cashner – Cashner is in a good position for a win at home against the Phillies, but it’s far from an ideal matchup. While he has a strong reputation, all his numbers show a league average pitcher. A league average pitcher at home in a good ballpark can be useful, just don’t get carried away with your expectations as the Phillies have hit the ball well recently and are a tough team to strikeout. Pitcher Rating – 6

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 128 – SIERA: 3.88 – ERA: 4.08 – K%: 20.0% – BB%: 7.5% – HR/9: 1.05

Salaries: $7,200 FD, $6,700 DK

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The ballpark downgrade in San Diego and a lack of top tier talent makes the Phillies secondary options, but as an overall lineup, they are likely to find a way to score some runs.

Secondary Plays:

Maikel Franco – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .358 – OBP: .347 – ISO: .210 – wRC+: 118

Ryan Howard – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .351 – OBP: .313 – ISO: .246 – wRC+: 124

Ceasr Hernandez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .305 – OBP: .336 – ISO: .087 – wRC+: 92

San Diego

Justin Upton – Jerome Williams is one of the top pitchers to attack, despite the struggles of the Padres offense. Upton has been great against right-handed pitching this year.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .361 – OBP: .356 – ISO: .214 – wRC+: 136

Secondary Plays:

Matt Kemp – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .302 – OBP: .302 – ISO: .135 – wRC+: 96

Miami at Atlanta – 5:05 PM EST

Miami					Atlanta
			Brad Hand					Shelby Miller
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ATL (-140)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.237	0.623	0.277	0.176	SP vs. Left	0.247	0.711	0.312	0.163
SP vs. Right	0.279	0.765	0.336	0.133	SP vs. Right	0.211	0.623	0.279	0.196
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Brad Hand – Hand has made sporadic spot starts for Miami for the past several years, as he’s never been good enough to stick in the rotation, nor bad enough to get rid of. He has an above average ground ball rate and a below average strikeout rate and is certainly not a pitcher worth consideration, even against Atlanta. Pitcher Rating – 3.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 49 – SIERA: 3.82 – ERA: 4.71 – K%: 15.6% – BB%: 5.7% – HR/9: 0.00

Salaries: $5,100 FD, $4,600 DK

Shelby Miller – Miller continues to outpitch his peripherals to a 2.44 ERA with help from a low BABIP and HR/FB%. While he should still be expected to regress, a home start against Miami is a favorable spot. In home starts this year, Miller has struck out more than a batter per inning and pitched to a solid 3.40 xFIP. He doesn’t have the upside of some of the aces on the mound today but deserves some consideration. Pitcher Rating – 7

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 140 – SIERA: 3.91 – ERA: 2.44 – K%: 19.9% – BB%: 7.8% – HR/9: 0.51

Salaries: $8,300 FD, $8,800 DK

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins are not in a great spot on the road against Shelby Miller, although he has fairly pedestrian numbers against left-handed batters. Their left-handed batters can be considered as secondary options

Secondary Plays:

Dee Gordon – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .315 – OBP: .337 – ISO: .078 – wRC+:99

Christian Yelich – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .326 – OBP: .348 – ISO: .112 – wRC+:107

Justin Bour – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .335 – OBP: .276 – ISO: .074 – wRC+:113

Derek Dietrich – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .373 – OBP: .361 – ISO: .248 – wRC+:139

Atlanta

The Braves have scored some runs in this series with Miami, but there not much reason to be excited about this offense. Cameron Maybin is the only hitter that should be considered a main target in this game.

Cameron Maybin – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .332 – OBP: .352 – ISO: .160 – wRC+:111

Secondary Plays:

LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh – 8:00 PM EST

LA Dodgers					Pittsburgh
			Alex Wood					Charlie Morton
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD (-115)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.244	0.618	0.276	0.240	SP vs. Left	0.254	0.729	0.325	0.174
SP vs. Right	0.259	0.707	0.313	0.21	SP vs. Right	0.238	0.666	0.298	0.176
Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LA vs R		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Wood – Moving to the Dodgers is a boost Wood’s value, but don’t get carried away, as he is just not displaying great skills this season. The most alarming number is a 7.7% swinging strike rate this season, after being over 9% over the past two years. The Pirates have a high strikeout rate overall, but also some high upside right-handed batters which could be a tough matchup for Wood’s underwhelming numbers against righties. I’m going to need to see improvement from Wood before I consider using him. Pitcher Rating – 5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 125 – SIERA: 4.04 – ERA: 3.65 – K%: 18.2% – BB%: 7.1% – HR/9: 0.57

Salaries: $8,200 FD, $7,600 DK

Charlie Morton – Morton had his best start of the year last time out against Cincinnati with a seven-inning shutout performance, including seven strikeouts and no walks. Prior to that start, he had allowed 30 runs in his previous seven starts with only 26 strikeouts in 37 innings. Despite the great start against the Reds, Morton is what he is; a low strikeout ground ball pitcher who is going to put up below average fantasy numbers more often than not. Pitcher Rating – 4

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 77 – SIERA: 3.92 – ERA: 4.19 – K%: 14.6% – BB%: 7.3% – HR/9: 0.81

Salaries: $6,800 FD, $6,500 DK

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Yasmani Grandal – While it’s tough to play against a heavy ground ball pitcher, Grandal has elite numbers against right-handed pitching.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .391 – OBP: .385 – ISO: .245 – wRC+:155

Adrian Gonzalez – Gonzalez just continues to hit, and should be lightly owned with all the great options at first base today.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .394 – OBP: .379 – ISO: .256 – wRC+:157

Secondary Plays:

Andre Ethier – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .375 – OBP: .374 – ISO: .206 – wRC+: 144

Pittsburgh

Andrew McCutchen – McCutchen is an elite hitter who could go overlooked due to playing in the late game against a pitcher with a decent reputation.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .392 – OBP: .416 – ISO: .149 – wRC+:157

Starling Marte – Marte has been outstanding against left-handed pitching all season.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .391 – OBP: .351 – ISO: .250 – wRC+:156

Secondary Plays:

Jung-Ho Kang – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .380 – OBP: .379 – ISO: .211 – wRC+: 148

Francisco Cervelli – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .449 – OBP: .456 – ISO: .196 – wRC+: 196

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