MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 27 - Page Three

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2015-09-27 13:35:12

Seattle at LA Angels – 3:35 PM EST

Seattle					LA Angels
			Hisashi Iwakuma					Jered Weaver
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAA (-111)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.266	0.705	0.307	0.2	SP vs. Left	0.259	0.748	0.328	0.179
SP vs. Right	0.207	0.593	0.259	0.24	SP vs. Right	0.237	0.693	0.303	0.153
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R		Batter Splits	LAA BvP		ANA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Hisashi Iwakuma – Iwakuma has been in top form recently, and he can be a very useful fantasy pitcher when he’s on his game. Over the past month he has a 3.08 SIERA with a 26.8% strikeout rate. Over his last two starts, he has 19 strikeouts to just one walk with one run allowed in 13 innings. Typically, he is more of a control pitcher than a strikeout artist, so I view him as more of a cash game play than a big upside tournament arm, but he has shown that he does have elite ability when he’s at the top of his game. Pitcher Rating – 8
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 115 – SIERA: 3.34 – ERA: 3.67 – K%: 22.2% – BB%: 4.6% – HR/9: 1.33

Salaries: $9,000 FD, $10,600 DK

Jered Weaver – After years of outperforming his peripherals, age has finally caught up with Jered Weaver. His strikeout rate has fallen off the table, from 19% in 2014 to 13.6% this year. He allows a lot of fly balls, and the lower the strikeout rate drops, the more the home runs rise. He will still post the occasional decent game when his fly balls land on the warning track instead of over the fence, but there is far more risk than reward with Weaver. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 148 – SIERA: 4.85 – ERA: 4.86 – K%: 13.6% – BB%: 4.8% – HR/9: 1.40

Salaries: $7,200 FD, $5,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Jered Weaver allows a lot of fly balls with a low strikeout rate to hitters from both sides of the plate. Seattle batters are strong plays today.

Elite Plays

Nelson Cruz – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .383 – OBP: .353 – ISO: .255 – wRC+: 149
Robinson Cano – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .349 – OBP: .349 – ISO: .172 – wRC+: 126
Seth Smith – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .342 – OBP: .341 – ISO: .201 – wRC+: 121
Kyle Seager – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .325 – OBP: .332 – ISO: .170 – wRC+: 109

Secondary Plays:

Ketel Marte – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .341 – OBP: .375 – ISO: .091 – wRC+: 120
Logan Morrison – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .335 – OBP: .327 – ISO: .211 – wRC+: 116

LA Angels

Iwakuma has a good strikeout rate and a low walk rate against both right and left-handed batters. He is tough pitcher to go against, though Mike Trout and Albert Pujols can be GPP plays in any matchup.

Secondary Plays:

Mike Trout – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .408 – OBP: .391 – ISO: .294 – wRC+: 168
Albert Pujols – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .339 – OBP: .314 – ISO: .235 – wRC+: 120

San Francisco at Oakland – 4:05 PM EST

San Francisco					Oakland
			Chris Heston					Sean Nolin
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			OAK (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.270	0.805	0.351	0.149	SP vs. Left	0.242	0.714	0.305	0.139
SP vs. Right	0.226	0.61	0.272	0.23	SP vs. Right	0.268	0.84	0.361	0.111
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SF vs L		Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Heston – I’ve been completely off of Heston for a couple months, as I’m just not a believer in what he was doing early in the season. It’s not that I think he’s a bad pitcher, I think just got overhyped after his no hitter against the Mets in early June. His control has gone south on him with a 12.2% walk rate over the last month, leading to a 4.25 SIERA. He hasn’t made it through six innings since early August, so I don’t see the upside here. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 169 – SIERA: 4.04 – ERA: 3.51 – K%: 19.2% – BB%: 8.7% – HR/9: 0.75

Salaries: $6,700 FD, $7,600 DK

Sean Nolin – In his first four starts, Nolin simply hasn’t gotten the job done. He has allowed 11 runs in 22 innings with a poor 12:10 K:BB ratio. He really can’t be considered until he shows something positive at the major league level. Pitcher Rating – 2.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 21 – SIERA: 5.49 – ERA: 4.57 – K%: 12.6% – BB%: 10.5% – HR/9: 1.25

Salaries: $5,800 FD, $5,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Sean Nolin has some very ugly numbers against right-handed batters in a small sample size, with as many walk as strikeouts and allowing a .344 wOBA despite benefiting from a low BABIP. He looks to be average at best against left-handed batters, so all Giants bats are playable today.

Elite Plays

Buster Posey – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .380 – OBP: .371 – ISO: .194 – wRC+: 149
Matt Duffy – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .296 – OBP: .306 – ISO: .103 – wRC+: 91
Kelby Tomlinson – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .376 – OBP: .380 – ISO: .122 – wRC+: 146

Secondary Plays:

Angel Pagan – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .324 – OBP: .362 – ISO: .043 – wRC+: 110

Oakland

Chris Heston has been effective against right-handed batters, but he is nothing special against lefties, allowing a .350 wOBA with a 15.5% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate.

Elite Plays

Josh Reddick – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .355 – OBP: .344 – ISO: .195 – wRC+: 129
Stephen Vogt – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .357 – OBP: .352 – ISO: .222 – wRC+: 130
Billy Burns – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .308 – OBP: .322 – ISO: .101 – wRC+: 96

Secondary Plays:

LA Dodgers at Colorado – 4:10 PM EST

LA Dodgers					Colorado
			Alex Wood					Chris Rusin
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			COL (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.229	0.59	0.263	0.243	SP vs. Left	0.291	0.792	0.34	0.144
SP vs. Right	0.257	0.715	0.315	0.201	SP vs. Right	0.317	0.882	0.378	0.145
Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LA vs L		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Wood – Wood has put up some very nice starts over the past month, but still has blowup potential in tough matchups as he showed when he allowed six earned runs in two innings at Arizona a couple weeks ago. A trip to Coors Field certainly qualifies as a tough matchup, making it easy to stay away from him today. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 177 – SIERA: 4.16 – ERA: 3.60 – K%: 17.9% – BB%: 7.5% – HR/9: 0.71

Salaries: $8,300 FD, $6,200 DK

Chris Rusin – Rusin allows too much contact to be successful at Coors Field. While his ground ball rate is good enough to keep his SIERA at a decent level, he just gives up too many runs on a regular basis to consider using. Pitcher Rating – 2.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 120 – SIERA: 4.34 – ERA: 5.39 – K%: 14.6% – BB%: 6.6% – HR/9: 1.20

Salaries: $4,800 FD, $4,500 DK

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Chris Rusin is allowing a .370 wOBA to right-handed batters and a .366 wOBA to left-handed batters. He is backed by a weak bullpen, and as always, you want as many hitters from Coors Field in your lineups as possible. You’ll need to keep a close eye on their lineup as it’s unclear who will be starting at several positions.

Elite Plays

Justin Ruggiano – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .410 – OBP: .378 – ISO: .267 – wRC: 167
Justin Turner – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .309 – OBP: .328 – ISO: .147 – wRC: 97
Scott Van Slyke – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .356 – OBP: .398 – ISO: .149 – wRC: 129
Jimmy Rollins – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .328 – OBP: .336 – ISO: .123 – wRC: 110
Yasmani Grandal – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .365 – OBP: .424 – ISO: .080 – wRC: 135
Howie Kendrick – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .320 – OBP: .336 – ISO: .111 – wRC: 104

Secondary Plays:

Anyone else in the lineup today is a secondary play for the Dodgers.

Colorado

Alex Wood has strong numbers against left-handed batters with just a .222 wOBA allowed with a strong 55% ground ball rate. However, he is just an average pitcher against right-handed batters, and likely to run into some trouble in Coors Field. The Rockies righties are strong plays in all formats, and you can take a shot on some of the lefties in tournaments if you think Wood gets bounced from the game early to give them some at bats against the bullpen.

Elite Plays

Nolan Arenado – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .297 – OBP: .331 – ISO: .137 – wRC: 68
Jose Reyes – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .303 – OBP: .313 – ISO: .100 – wRC: 83
D.J. LeMahieu – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .334 – OBP: .387 – ISO: .056 – wRC: 93
Wilin Rosario – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .289 – OBP: .299 – ISO: .138 – wRC:63

Secondary Plays:

Charlie Blackmon – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .300 – OBP: .308 – ISO: .122 – wRC: 70
Carlos Gonzalez – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .212 – OBP: .209 – ISO: .103 – wRC: 10
Corey Dickerson – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .297 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .048 – wRC: 68

Arizona at San Diego – 4:10 PM EST

Arizona					San Diego
			Zack Godley					James Shields
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SDP (-135)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left	0.260	0.766	0.334	0.197
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0.235	0.691	0.302	0.244
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R		Batter Splits			SD vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Zack Godley – Rookie Zack Godley will get one final start this season, but he’s expected to only throw around 60 pitches before being replaced by Jhoulys Chacin, as the Diamondbacks are just trying to get through the end of the season as base they can. While Godley has put up a couple nice starts, he can’t be considered an option given the expected short outing. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 33 – SIERA: 4.12 – ERA: 3.48 – K%: 22.5% – BB%: 10.9% – HR/9: 1.07

Salaries: $6,000 FD, $5,000 DK

James Shields – Shields was putting up elite strikeout numbers through the early part of the season, but he has slowed down in the second half, and more concerning has started walking more batters, with a 12.9% walk rate over the past month. I don’t see him as being trustworthy in cash games, but he certainly still has GPP upside in his arm if you want to take a shot. Pitcher Rating – 7
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 196 – SIERA: 3.73 – ERA: 3.86 – K%: 25.1% – BB%: 9.3% – HR/9: 1.38

Salaries: $8,800 FD, $9,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

“(player-popup)James Shields”:/players/james-shields-10667’ biggest problem this season has been home runs, which makes the Diamondbacks power hitters interesting tournament plays, though risky cash game options in a pitcher’s park in San Diego. He has struggled more with left-handed batters, so David Peralta would be my first choice from this offense, but certainly Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock always come with upside.

Elite Plays

David Peralta – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .387 – OBP: .375 – ISO: .218 – wRC: 143
Paul Goldschimdt – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .400 – OBP: .423 – ISO: .238 – wRC: 152

Secondary Plays:

A.J. Pollock – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .368 – OBP: .364 – ISO: .180 – wRC: 130
Ender Inciarte – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .346 – OBP: .363 – ISO: .107 – wRC: 115
Welington Castillo – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .354 – OBP: .319 – ISO: .247 – wRC: 120

San Diego

The Padres are likely to see a couple different pitchers throw 3-4 innings each, and could certainly be in line to see some questionable arms out of the bullpen if things don’t go as planned for Arizona. San Diego bats could make for interesting low owned GPP options.

Elite Plays

Justin Upton – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .364 – OBP: .357 – ISO: .228 – wRC: 135

Secondary Plays:

Wil Myers – - 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .342 – OBP: .322 – ISO: .205 – wRC: 120
Matt Kemp – - 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .318 – OBP: .305 – ISO: .174 – wRC: 104

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 8:00 PM EST

Pittsburgh					Chicago Cubs
			A.J. Burnett					Jake Arrieta
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.250	0.757	0.338	0.180	SP vs. Left	0.174	0.498	0.227	0.297
SP vs. Right	0.268	0.713	0.313	0.222	SP vs. Right	0.211	0.557	0.246	0.244
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

A.J. Burnett – Burnett has been decent since coming off the DL. He has made three starts, allowing seven runs in 16 innings with 15 strikeouts. I don’t think you can expect more than six decent innings out of him, and there’s not enough upside to make him worth chasing. He is definitely not one of the worst pitchers on the mound today, but there is also no reason to roster him. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 151 – SIERA: 3.65 – ERA: 3.15 – K%: 2.0% – BB%: 6.7% – HR/9: 0.54

Salaries: $8,300 FD, $8,200 DK

Jake Arrieta – I hope you are all noticing what Jake Arrieta has been doing. If it weren’t for the Dodgers, this guy is all we’d be talking about, he has been absolutely incredible. In his last ten starts, he has allowed just four earned runs in 75 innings. Think about that for a second. Since the middle of August, he has a 57:7 K:BB ratio including two complete game shutouts, one of which was a no-hitter. He has an elite strikeout rate, and elite walk rate and an elite ground ball rate. I still say Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in the game, but Arrieta is making it interesting. Play him in any and all contests that you’re trying to win. Pitcher Rating – 10
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 216 – SIERA: 2.85 – ERA: 1.88 – K%: 26.6% – BB%: 5.8% – HR/9: 0.42

Salaries: $12,500 FD, $13,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

There is no reason to play against Jake Arrieta while he is pitching at this level.

Secondary Plays:

Chicago Cubs

AJ Burnett is a solid enough pitcher that it’s not easy to target batters against him. He gets a 53% ground ball rate from both right and left-handed batters and is allowing a .320 wOBA to lefties and a .309 wOBA to righties. There is certainly enough firepower in the Cubs offense that they could score some runs here, but they are not high priority plays.

Secondary Plays:

Anthony Rizzo – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .385 – OBP: .377 – ISO: .259 – wRC+: 145
Kyle Schwarber – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .414 – OBP: .392 – ISO: .310 – wRC+: 165
Kris Bryant – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .385 – OBP: .380 – ISO: .229 – wRC+: 145

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