MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 4th - Page Three
LA Dodgers at Colorado – 8:40 PM ET
| LA Dodgers | Colorado | ||||||||
 | Kenta Maeda |  | Tyler Chatwood | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAD -132 | 10.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.289 | 6 | 34.7% | 20.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.283 | 2 | 26.1% | 16.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.258 | 6 | 25.3% | 28.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.325 | 6 | 31.5% | 13.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Kenta Maeda | ||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | $6,700 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 29.1 | FPPG: | 15.8 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 59.1 | Pitcher Rank: | 12 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 5 | 90.8 | 2.99 | 4.61 | 28.4% | 3.7% | 11.5% | 44.6% | 41.9% | 35.1% |
| 2016 | 21 | 92.5 | 3.64 | 3.23 | 25.0% | 6.7% | 11.6% | 44.4% | 37.5% | 29.6% |
Have you been paying attention to the Grind Down lately? If so, what do we look for when considering if a pitcher in Coors Field is worth a look in tournaments?
A high strikeout rate combined with a high ground ball rate.
Maeda has a strikeout rate of 28.4% and a ground ball rate of 44.6% this season. Those numbers make him at least a slightly intriguing play for tournaments tonight, especially at his price point. For cash games, we obviously want to look elsewhere.
| Tyler Chatwood | ||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $7,100 | Salary: | $5,700 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 28.1 | FPPG: | 13.3 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 25.5 | Pitcher Rank: | 24 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 5 | 90.0 | 6.33 | 4.68 | 14.7% | 18.1% | 6.0% | 50.6% | 26.0% | 34.6% |
| 2016 | 19 | 92.3 | 4.89 | 3.50 | 15.1% | 10.8% | 7.0% | 56.8% | 24.7% | 28.9% |
Chatwood has been a regression candidate all season and we are finally starting to see him struggle. In his last five starts, he has a 6.33 SIERA (4.68 ERA) with a walk rate that is higher than his strikeout rate. The Dodgers’ bats have been cold so far in this series, but I expect that to change tonight. Chatwood does boast an elite ground ball rate, but eventually those are going to turn into hits.
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
The Dodgers have been a disappointment so far in this series, but they have a chance at redemption tonight. They draw an excellent matchup against Tyler Chatwood, who is expected to regress in the second half of the season. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play and you can stack the Dodgers in both cash games and tournaments.
- Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.161 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.8% (15 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.81 (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.38 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.44 (1 of 24)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Utley | LEFT | 0.305 | 0.134 | 0.227 | 2B | $4,100 | 2B | $4,700 |
| 2 | Corey Seager | LEFT | 0.402 | 0.229 | 0.384 | SS | $4,300 | SS | $5,500 |
| 3 | Justin Turner | RIGHT | 0.386 | 0.225 | 0.475 | 3B | $4,400 | 3B | $5,200 |
| 4 | Josh Reddick | LEFT | 0.368 | 0.194 | 0.288 | OF | $3,900 | OF | $5,300 |
| 5 | Adrian Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.352 | 0.192 | 0.334 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $5,000 |
| 6 | Yasmani Grandal | SWITCH | 0.333 | 0.209 | 0.465 | C | $3,900 | C | $4,900 |
| 7 | Joc Pederson | LEFT | 0.351 | 0.231 | 0.360 | OF | $4,100 | OF | $5,000 |
| 8 | Howie Kendrick | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.121 | 0.292 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B/OF | $4,000 |
| 9 | Kenta Maeda | RIGHT | 0.135 | 0.107 | 0.146 | P | $7,500 | P | $6,700 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.328 | 0.182 | 0.330 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Chase Utley, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Josh Reddick Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal
Secondary Plays – Joc Pederson, Howie Kendrick
Stackability – GREEN
Colorado
The Rockies are always in play when they are at home in Coors, but this matchup isn’t nearly as favorable as the one last night. Kenta Maeda has an elite strikeout rate and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA this season. I will still have a lot of Rockies’ shares tonight, but I prefer the Dodgers’ side if I had to choose.
- Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.338 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.185 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.2% (10 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.87 (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.19 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.06 (2 of 24)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Blackmon | LEFT | 0.359 | 0.178 | 0.330 | OF | $4,100 | OF | $5,200 |
| 2 | DJ LeMahieu | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.113 | 0.370 | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $4,200 |
| 3 | Carlos Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.411 | 0.291 | 0.472 | OF | $4,200 | OF | $5,500 |
| 4 | Nolan Arenado | RIGHT | 0.383 | 0.307 | 0.340 | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $5,200 |
| 5 | David Dahl | LEFT | 0.441 | 0.241 | 0.429 | OF | $3,900 | OF | $3,800 |
| 6 | Mark Reynolds | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.178 | 0.387 | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $4,000 |
| 7 | Daniel Descalso | LEFT | 0.310 | 0.121 | 0.294 | SS | $3,300 | 1B/OF | $3,300 |
| 8 | Nick Hundley | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.174 | 0.280 | C | $3,000 | C | $3,400 |
| 9 | Tyler Chatwood | RIGHT | 0.275 | 0.000 | 0.138 | P | $7,100 | P | $5,700 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.355 | 0.178 | 0.338 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez
Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, David Dahl, Mark Reynolds
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Boston at Seattle – 10:10 PM ET
| Boston | Seattle | ||||||||
 | Drew Pomeranz |  | Ariel Miranda | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BOS -140 | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.240 | 3 | 27.7% | 25.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.480 | 0 | 50.0% | 42.9% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.290 | 17 | 27.9% | 25.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.311 | 0 | 33.3% | 25.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Drew Pomeranz | ||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $9,600 | Salary: | $9,400 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 35.8 | FPPG: | 19.7 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 83.1 | Pitcher Rank: | 1 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 4 | 90.8 | 4.12 | 5.06 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 45.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% |
| 2016 | 20 | 97.8 | 3.76 | 3.09 | 27.3% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 46.9% | 37.5% | 30.2% |
| 2015 | 9 | 160.2 | 3.73 | 3.66 | 23.0% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 42.2% | 36.3% | 24.9% |
Pomeranz grades out as the top pitching option in the evening slate, but he comes into the game in less than stellar form. In his last four starts, he has a 4.12 SIERA (5.06 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 23.1% and a walk rate of 8.8%. He draws a mediocre matchup tonight against the Mariners, who are ranked 20th in team wOBA and 15th in team K% against left-handed pitching. The good news is that the run support should be there for him with a rookie pitching for the Mariners.
| Ariel Miranda | ||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $4,000 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 9.0 | FPPG: | 4.1 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 53.9 | Pitcher Rank: | 15 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0 | 0.0 | 1.57 | 13.50 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 6.0% | 42.9% | 42.9% | 42.9% |
Miranda will be making his first career major league start tonight against the Red Sox. In 19 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 3.78 FIP with a strikeout rate of 20.7%. He is a 27-year old left hander that isn’t considered a top prospect. As always, I will take a wait and see approach with a pitcher making his first career start.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
The Red Sox offense hasn’t had their way with the Mariners’ pitching staff, but they should be able to get things going tonight against the rookie Ariel Miranda. He hasn’t shown a ton of upside in the minors and the Red Sox have the third highest team wOBA against southpaws this season. Give a slight edge to the right-handed hitters in this lineup.
- Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.345 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.166 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 18.5% (5 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.93 (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.48 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.48 (7 of 24)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.346 | 0.196 | 0.456 | OF | $4,700 | OF | $5,100 |
| 2 | Dustin Pedroia | RIGHT | 0.340 | 0.153 | 0.405 | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $4,500 |
| 3 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.386 | 0.117 | 0.392 | SS | $3,900 | SS | $5,000 |
| 4 | David Ortiz | LEFT | 0.315 | 0.185 | 0.270 | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $4,400 |
| 5 | Hanley Ramirez | RIGHT | 0.363 | 0.232 | 0.311 | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $4,700 |
| 6 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | LEFT | 0.365 | 0.177 | 0.362 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,800 |
| 7 | Aaron Hill | RIGHT | 0.285 | 0.096 | 0.234 | 3B | $3,100 | 2B/3B | $2,800 |
| 8 | Sandy Leon | SWITCH | 0.315 | 0.139 | 0.244 | C | $2,700 | C | $3,400 |
| 9 | Bryce Brentz | RIGHT | 0.301 | 0.105 | 0.163 | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,800 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.335 | 0.156 | 0.315 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts
Secondary Plays – David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, Aaron Hill
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Seattle
The Mariners have the fourth lowest run projection on the board tonight, but there are always two bats that are in play when they are facing a left-handed pitcher. In the last two seasons, Franklin Gutierrez and Nelson Cruz both have a .392+ wOBA against southpaws.
- Mariners Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.316 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.173 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.5% (15 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.85 (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.67 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.02 (21 of 24)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo Heredia | SWITCH | 0.110 | 0.000 | 0.088 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $2,300 |
| 2 | Franklin Gutierrez | RIGHT | 0.392 | 0.263 | 0.368 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,100 |
| 3 | Robinson Cano | LEFT | 0.322 | 0.149 | 0.352 | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $4,700 |
| 4 | Nelson Cruz | RIGHT | 0.442 | 0.331 | 0.385 | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,500 |
| 5 | Dae-ho Lee | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.220 | 0.230 | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $2,800 |
| 6 | Kyle Seager | LEFT | 0.324 | 0.195 | 0.348 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $3,400 |
| 7 | Mike Zunino | RIGHT | 0.262 | 0.124 | 0.448 | C | $2,500 | C | $2,500 |
| 8 | Leonys Martin | LEFT | 0.291 | 0.126 | 0.252 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,000 |
| 9 | Shawn O’Malley | SWITCH | 0.288 | 0.068 | 0.252 | OF | $2,300 | OF/SS | $2,400 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.307 | 0.164 | 0.303 | — | — | — | — |