MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 4th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-08-05 01:36:25

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Kansas City at Tampa Bay – 12:10 PM ET

Kansas City					Tampa Bay
			Ian Kennedy					Drew Smyly
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TB -138					7.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left	0.345	32	37.1%	24.8%	SP vs. Left	0.287	5	32.3%	34.8%
SP vs. Right	0.330	25	35.2%	23.8%	SP vs. Right	0.335	28	31.7%	22.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ian Kennedy
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$8,900
					FPPG:		30.2	FPPG:		15.9
					Pitcher Rating:		74.8	Pitcher Rank:		4
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	103.8	3.57	4.88	25.6%	6.0%	10.0%	36.4%	41.6%	37.7%
2016	21	100.9	3.98	4.23	24.2%	7.7%	10.0%	34.0%	46.7%	37.4%
2015	30	97.0	3.61	4.28	24.4%	7.3%	10.3%	38.5%	38.7%	35.2%

If you thought the pitching options were bad yesterday, wait until you see whose on the mound today. When Kennedy is pitching on the road and is still the fourth highest rated pitcher, you know the choices are limited. Kennedy always brings nice upside to the table, but he gives up too many home runs (57 in the last two seasons). The good news is that he is facing the Rays in the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. The bad news is that that Tampa Bay has the seventh highest team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Kennedy is a boom or bust play today, but given the lack of options, you can consider him in all league formats.

Drew Smyly
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$7,600
					FPPG:		26.8	FPPG:		14.0
					Pitcher Rating:		76.3	Pitcher Rank:		2
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	4	93.0	5.78	5.14	10.6%	7.5%	5.7%	30.3%	43.4%	35.1%
2016	20	97.8	3.91	5.29	23.7%	6.2%	10.6%	32.4%	46.9%	31.9%
2015	12	94.7	3.25	3.10	28.0%	7.3%	11.4%	36.8%	44.3%	31.6%

Smyly grades out as the second best play in the early-only slate, right behind Drew Pomeranz. The issue with the pitcher rating for Smyly is that it not only takes into account recent form, but also his numbers from the last two seasons. That means that his rating is being helped by his early season form. He has not been sharp in his last four outings, posting a 5.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 10.6%. I generally don’t mind picking on the Royals, but I prefer to do it with right-handed pitchers. On the season, they are ranked 16th in team wOBA and sixth in team K% against southpaws.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals have the lowest implied run projection of the 24 teams in action today. Clearly, Vegas isn’t too worried about Drew Smyly recent slump. While I won’t be heavily targeting Kansas City in this matchup, the right-handed hitters are certainly worth a look. In the last two seasons, Smyly has allowed a .335 wOBA and 28 home runs to batters from the right side of the plate.

• Royals Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.322 (16 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.148 (23 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 18.6% (6 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.80 (21 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.83 (27 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.53 (24 of 24)

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Cheslor Cuthbert, Kendrys Morales, Salvador Perez

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays may be favorites today, but they come into the game with the third lowest implied team total. They draw a boom or bust type of matchup against Ian Kennedy at home. On the one hand, Kennedy has an above-average strikeout rate. On the other hand, he has allowed 57 home runs in the last two seasons – 32 to left-handed hitters and 25 to right-handed hitters.

• Rays Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.306 (22 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.180 (7 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 24.0% (27 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.89 (12 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.01 (25 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.97 (22 of 24)

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – Brad Miller

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Minnesota at Cleveland – 12:10 PM ET

Minnesota					Cleveland
			Hector Santiago					Mike Clevinger
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -150					9.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left	0.294	6	29.5%	19.0%	SP vs. Left	0.264	1	31.8%	26.3%
SP vs. Right	0.323	43	35.7%	21.4%	SP vs. Right	0.444	2	31.0%	11.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Hector Santiago
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,300	Salary:		$6,400
					FPPG:		28.7	FPPG:		14.2
					Pitcher Rating:		43.9	Pitcher Rank:		18
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	104.8	4.79	2.15	24.0%	13.6%	8.2%	36.4%	54.5%	33.3%
2016	22	96.6	4.77	4.25	20.8%	11.1%	9.2%	38.5%	47.9%	35.0%
2015	32	98.8	4.50	3.59	20.9%	9.2%	8.5%	29.9%	53.6%	33.6%

Santiago was traded to the Twins for Ricky Nolasco and they will actually both be on the mound today for their new teams. Santiago could experience some regression moving forward, but unlike most regression candidates, he actually has an above-average strikeout rate at 20.8%. The issue today is his matchup against the Indians. He comes into the game as a sizable underdog and he has to face them on the road in Cleveland.

Mike Clevinger
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		12.3	FPPG:		5.3
					Pitcher Rating:		43.7	Pitcher Rank:		19
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	0	0.0	7.38	0.00	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	60.0%	20.0%	0.0%
2016	3	104.7	4.99	7.71	18.9%	12.2%	9.6%	44.0%	36.0%	31.4%

Clevinger will be making his fourth start career major league start today. The first three were less than impressive, but the young righty did post a 3.30 FIP with a strikeout rate of 25.5% in 17 Triple-A starts this season. He is listed as a sizable favorite against the Twins, although at this point, it would take some guts to target an Indians pitcher against Minnesota. They have scored 35 runs combined in the first three games of the series.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

There is no hotter offense in baseball right now than the Minnesota Twins. The most impressive part is that they have scored all these runs against three quality starters in Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. Given the randomness of baseball, I wouldn’t be surprised if they came out and put up a zero in a favorable matchup against the rookie Mike Clevinger. Kidding aside, this is a great spot to target the Twins in both cash games and GPPs.

• Twins Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (11 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (14 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.6% (20 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.96 (4 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.64 (13 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.46 (9 of 24)

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Kennys Vargas, Eduardo Escobar

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland

The Indians have the highest implied team total of anyone playing outside of Coors Field (Dodgers and Rockies). Even though their numbers against southpaws aren’t great as a whole, they have a few right-handed batters that feast on left-handed pitching. They draw a favorable matchup against Hector Santiago, who has allowed a .323 wOBA and a whopping 43 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

• Indians Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.314 (21 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.137 (27 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 21.1% (14 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.89 (11 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.96 (5 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 5.04 (3 of 24)

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – Rajai Davis, Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

St. Louis at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

St. Louis					Cincinnati
			Mike Leake					Brandon Finnegan
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL -142					9.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left	0.317	25	30.0%	15.9%	SP vs. Left	0.319	4	31.7%	14.9%
SP vs. Right	0.294	15	31.0%	16.5%	SP vs. Right	0.336	26	37.3%	19.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Leake
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$6,900
					FPPG:		24.8	FPPG:		12.3
					Pitcher Rating:		71.2	Pitcher Rank:		5
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	89.2	2.31	5.70	24.6%	0.0%	12.6%	60.9%	18.5%	26.3%
2016	21	89.9	3.73	4.50	17.5%	3.2%	7.0%	53.4%	26.0%	32.9%
2015	30	91.8	4.19	3.70	15.3%	6.3%	6.3%	51.8%	26.6%	28.8%

Leake may have a 5.70 ERA over the last month of play, but his peripheral statistics look great during that stretch. In those five starts, he posted a 2.31 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.6%. That could be a sign of good things to come. He is a sneaky fantasy option today against the Reds, who are ranked 23rd in team wOBA and 21st in team K% against right-handed pitching this season. Leake induces a ton of ground balls, which is key when you are pitching in a home run-friendly park like the Great American Ballpark.

Brandon Finnegan
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$5,500
					FPPG:		21.7	FPPG:		10.3
					Pitcher Rating:		43.1	Pitcher Rank:		21
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	4	91.0	5.06	5.57	18.5%	10.9%	8.2%	32.3%	43.1%	43.1%
2016	21	95.0	5.27	4.68	16.9%	11.6%	8.9%	38.1%	37.8%	37.8%
2015	4	187.8	3.77	3.56	22.8%	10.7%	9.7%	54.3%	29.1%	30.8%

Finnegan has not pitched well this season, posting a 5.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.9% and a walk rate of 11.6%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a 37.8% hard hit contact rate. That’s typically not a great combination for a pitcher, especially when you are walking a lot of hitters. He is an easy fade today against the Cardinals, who are ranked above the major league average in team ISO and team K% against left-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals have the second highest implied team total in the early slate, trailing only the Indians. From a splits perspective, this is actually one of the best matchups on the board. In the last two seasons combined, Finnegan has allowed a .319 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .336 wOBA to right-handed hitters. He has also given up 26 home runs to righties in a span of only 25 starts.

• Cardinals Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.313 (22 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.161 (14 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 20.6% (12 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.82 (20 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.07 (3 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.75 (4 of 24)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Tommy Pham, Jedd Gyorko, Stephen Piscotty

Secondary Plays – Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds have not fared well against right-handed pitching this season and those numbers include the bat of Jay Bruce that is no longer with the team. They draw a fairly difficult matchup against Mike Leake, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 wOBA in the last two seasons. The one plus in this matchup is that Leake has given up 25 home runs to lefties during that stretch.

• Reds Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.305 (23 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.159 (17 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.7% (21 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (24 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.32 (20 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.25 (15 of 24)

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Adam Duvall

Stackability – ORANGE

San Francisco at Philadelphia – 1:05 PM ET

San Francisco					Philadelphia
			Matt Moore					Vince Velasquez
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SF -125					8.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left	0.305	7	31.5%	17.2%	SP vs. Left	0.318	10	26.2%	24.6%
SP vs. Right	0.337	22	32.4%	19.3%	SP vs. Right	0.306	6	29.9%	27.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Moore
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,400	Salary:		$8,400
					FPPG:		29.7	FPPG:		15.2
					Pitcher Rating:		60.2	Pitcher Rank:		11
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	4	100.3	5.46	2.33	14.7%	9.2%	7.7%	32.5%	49.4%	26.5%
2016	21	101.2	4.42	4.08	19.9%	7.3%	9.9%	36.4%	44.2%	32.4%
2015	12	88.0	4.67	5.43	16.6%	8.3%	9.9%	39.2%	38.7%	31.7%

Moore will be making his first start with the Giants. Much like Johnny Cueto, I expect him to benefit from both a move to the National League and the move specifically to San Francisco. They play in one of the best pitcher’s parks in all of baseball. While Moore’s fantasy value should trend upward, he is a boom or bust option today against the Phillies. This is his first start with his new team and the Phillies actually have some nice right-handed hitters in their lineup.

Vince Velasquez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$8,700
					FPPG:		33.6	FPPG:		18.0
					Pitcher Rating:		69.9	Pitcher Rank:		7
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	4	100.3	4.85	3.24	20.0%	11.4%	9.5%	39.1%	37.7%	33.3%
2016	18	89.3	3.76	3.32	26.7%	8.9%	11.3%	37.4%	40.6%	28.5%
2015	7	139.4	3.74	4.37	25.1%	9.1%	10.5%	31.3%	46.7%	27.3%

Velasquez has great upside every time he steps out onto the mound, but targeting right-handed pitchers against the Giants is a strategy that’s going to end up costing you more often than not. On the season, San Francisco has the second lowest team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. They are also healthy now that Hunter Pence and Joe Panik are back in the lineup. I know the pitching options are limited in the early slate, but Velasquez seems a bit too risky at his price point.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants are small favorites today against Vince Velasquez in the somewhat hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. From a splits perspective, there isn’t a lot that really stands out in this matchup. In the last two seasons, Velasquez has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 wOBA. The Giants are decent one-off targets for tournaments, but I will be loading up on the Indians and Cardinals in the early slate.

• Giants Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (17 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.138 (26 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 16.8% (2 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.87 (16 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.53 (15 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.15 (16 of 24)

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Hunter Pence, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

The Phillies have gotten the best of the Giants’ pitching staff in this series. It took a while for them to get to Johnny Cueto last night, but they eventually scored four runs against him in the eighth inning. Despite having a low team total today, I like their matchup against Matt Moore. Not only is he making his first start with the Giants, but he has allowed a .337 wOBA and 22 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

• Phillies Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.289 (29 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.111 (29 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 22.8% (21 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.71 (30 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.65 (29 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.85 (23 of 24)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Maikel Franco

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Tommy Joseph

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 1:08 PM ET

Chicago White Sox					Detroit
			Jose Quintana					Jordan Zimmermann
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -138					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left	0.270	7	29.1%	22.1%	SP vs. Left	0.320	17	29.9%	18.9%
SP vs. Right	0.310	22	30.1%	21.3%	SP vs. Right	0.293	15	27.6%	17.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Quintana
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$9,800
					FPPG:		35.7	FPPG:		19.5
					Pitcher Rating:		64.3	Pitcher Rank:		9
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	4	108.5	3.66	2.13	24.8%	5.9%	7.4%	37.7%	42.0%	36.2%
2016	21	104.4	3.86	2.89	22.9%	6.1%	8.0%	38.8%	40.9%	33.6%
2015	32	105.4	3.62	3.36	20.5%	5.1%	9.2%	47.1%	29.7%	27.7%

Quintana is quietly having another impressive season for the White Sox. In 21 starts, he has a 3.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.9% and a walk rate of 6.1%. He is a fly-ball pitcher, but he is able to limit the damage against him thanks to a 30% hard hit contact rate in the last two seasons combined. While Quintana can dominate in any matchup, I don’t love the idea of targeting him against a right-handed heavy lineup of the Tigers. There is more risk than potential reward for Quintana today in Detroit.

Jordan Zimmermann
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$7,100
					FPPG:		29.9	FPPG:		14.4
					Pitcher Rating:		70.6	Pitcher Rank:		6
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
2016	15	100.7	4.55	3.95	15.2%	4.6%	7.6%	44.7%	37.4%	27.1%
2015	33	94.0	3.83	3.66	19.7%	4.7%	8.4%	42.0%	36.2%	29.5%

Zimmermann will be making his first start in more than a month. He got off to a hot start in the early part of the season, but really struggled after that. He currently has a 4.65 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.2%. While his matchup against the White Sox is a favorable one, there isn’t enough upside to warrant fantasy consideration. I’m also worried about a potential pitch count in his first game back from a neck injury.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have the fifth lowest implied run projection of the 24 teams in action today, but it’s not like Jordan Zimmermann is unhittable. In his 15 starts this season, he has allowed a .337 wOBA to right-handed hitters. I’m not going to heavily target the White Sox in this one, but their are a few hitters that deserve a look in tournaments.

• White Sox Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.303 (24 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.144 (24 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.0% (16 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.86 (18 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.97 (26 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.03 (20 of 24)

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Tim Anderson, Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

The Tigers come into today’s game with the eighth highest team total on the board. Their matchup against Jose Quintana may not look favorable on paper, but the Tigers have eight right-handed hitters in their lineup today. Over the last two seasons, Quintana has allowed a .310 wOBA and 22 home runs to hitters from the right side of the plate.

• Tigers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.318 (18 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.161 (14 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 21.7% (16 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.88 (13 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.82 (7 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.47 (8 of 24)

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – ORANGE

Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums

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