NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 16th

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-03-16 19:06:00

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets							Philadelphia 76ers
			Vegas Total		218.5					Vegas Total		218.5
			Vegas Spread		8.5					Vegas Spread		-8.5
			Implied Team Total		105.0					Implied Team Total		113.5
			Pace Projection +/-		1.8					Pace Projection +/-		1.4
Projected Starters	Spencer Dinwiddie	D’Angelo Russell	Allen Crabbe	DeMarre Carroll	Jarrett Allen		Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	12	19	18	16	12		DvP	28	11	14	28	30
DRPM Rat.	1	26	1	24	2		DRPM Rat.	5	28	24	7	28

Brooklyn Nets

Notable Injuries

Update 12:32pm EST – Jarrett Allen will play

Jarrett Allen (On track to play), Allen Crabbe (Questionable)

Hello Grinders. We have a six-game slate this Friday. I’m filling in for Noto today, but I won’t beat around the bush, so let’s get straight to analyzing these games.

The big news for the Nets is that Allen Crabbe is questionable. Crabbe missed Thursday’s practice with an illness, and if he misses the game, we could see Joe Harris inserted into the starting lineup. Crabbe being out should also benefit Caris LeVert, who may see more minutes in the second unit. In nine starts this season, Harris has averaged 31.9 minutes, 11.0 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.2 assists. Those aren’t earth-shattering numbers but they are serviceable, and Harris would profile more as a fringe cash game play if you’re in need of a salary relief considering he’s only $3,600 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel.

Jarrett Allen missed the Nets’ last game but is expected back. Dante Cunningham drew the start at center during Allen’s absence but would likely shift back to the bench if Allen is cleared to go. When the Nets and 76ers last played, Allen struggled against Joel Embiid and was limited to just 16 minutes and it wasn’t due to foul trouble, as he only had two for the whole game. That’s enough to concern me. Instead, my main frontcourt targets on this team would be DeMarre Carroll or Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who has been successful in the second unit lately.

DeMarre Carroll has now failed to reach 20 fantasy points in back-to-back games. Considering he had put together a string of seven straight games with 27 or more fantasy points just previously, I’m expecting recency bias to play a factor here and potentially keep his ownership lower than normal. There are no signs of an injury and it’s a neutral matchup, so I don’t mind taking a flyer on Carroll in all formats as we’re getting a slight price discount.

Sorry for beating around the bush too much. My favorite target on the Nets is D’Angelo Russell. He’s dropped 37 or more DraftKings points in five of his last seven games, including a 37.5 performance against these 76ers just a few games ago. Should Crabbe miss this game, that should benefit Russell even moreso.

As crazy as it sounds, I think I’d rather play Caris LeVert over Spencer Dinwiddie at this point. Dinwiddie seems to have hit a ceiling, and perhaps playing alongside Russell in the starting lineup is impacting his fantasy production to the point where he’s just not someone we need to look to anymore. Dinwiddie has topped 30 DraftKings points just three times over his last 10 games, while LeVert has been flashing 40 point upside. It’s worth nothing that LeVert is $700 cheaper than Dinwiddie on DraftKings but $200 more expensive on FanDuel, so I prefer LeVert more on DraftKings.

Brooklyn Nets Offense

Points Per Game: 105.8 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (4 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 ( of 6)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.1 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.7 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.4 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – DeMarre Carroll, D’Angelo Russell

Secondary Plays – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (GPP), Caris LeVert (DK)

Philadelphia 76ers

Notable Injuries

None

This is a backend game of a back-to-back for the 76ers, so we’ll need to monitor them closely. The 76ers beat the Knicks on Thursday with every starter playing between 28-32 minutes and the Sixers deploying a strict nine-man rotation. Embiid finished with 32 minutes and was spotted with some tape on his wrist prior to the game, but apparently that was nothing serious.

In theory this is a spot Embiid should dominate. He’s facing the league’s worst defense against centers, and the Nets allow the most rebounds per game to opposing teams (46.4). Additionally, rookie Jarrett Allen will be back, who has been plagued by foul trouble at times. Embiid disappointed in this spot a few games ago, but I’m willing to go back to the well here. The problem I’m facing is that we have a few stars on this slate I want exposure to (Westbrook and Durant, who we’ll discuss later), which makes me wonder if Embiid will actually be a contrarian route for most lineups. If I’m building multiple lineups I’ll try to find a way to have some Embiid exposure given the spot, but I find myself gravitating towards the stars in OKC and Golden State first if I’m spending up. We can discuss more game theory in the Final Thoughts section. Side note: today is Embiid’s birthday, so we have a birthday narrative. Shoutout to Stevie for pointing this out on twitter.

The way I feel about Embiid is the way I feel about Ben Simmons. He’s coming off a triple-double but also disappointed in this spot three games ago and is in an awkward price point where playing him feels like I’d be sacrificing too much elsewhere. That probably makes him a good tournament play given how the Nets struggle against primary ball handlers, but he profiles more as an elite tournament play than someone I’d start my rosters with.

If I wanted exposure to the 76ers, I would probably search for it through one of their secondary pieces. Dario Saric is my favorite option, as the Nets rank 28th in DvP against power forwards and Saric has been fantastic as of late. The same could also be said of Robert Covington, who has finally had a hot streak recently and even found a way to put up 26.25 DraftKings points on March 8th in a game where he shot 0-for-10. I’d also be fine with J.J. Redick, as he has a safe enough floor in this matchup to be viable if you want to pay down at shooting guard.

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 107.8 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.5 (1 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 5.7 ( of 6)

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.2 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.6 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.0 (7 of 30)

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid

Secondary Plays – Robert Covington, J.J. Redick, Dario Saric, Ben Simmons

Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics							Orlando Magic
			Vegas Total							Vegas Total
			Vegas Spread							Vegas Spread
			Implied Team Total							Implied Team Total
			Pace Projection +/-		0.8					Pace Projection +/-		-1.2
Projected Starters	Terry Rozier	Jayson Tatum	Marcus Morris	Al Horford	Aron Baynes		Projected Starters	D.J. Augustin	Jonathon Simmons	Jonathan Isaac	Mario Hezonja	Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	30	27	17	26	20		DvP	1	6	11	1	10
DRPM Rat.	20	30	10	28	8		DRPM Rat.	3	7	26	2	1

Boston Celtics

Notable Injuries

Update 12:32pm EST – Al Horford will play

Jaylen Brown (Out), Al Horford (Expected to play after missing Wednesday with illness), Kyrie Irving (Unlikely to play), Marcus Smart (Out), Daniel Theis (Out)

With Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart out, Daniel Theis out for the season and Kyrie Irving doubtful, the Celtics will be extremely thin against the Magic. The good news is that Al Horford is expected back after missing the past two games with an illness.

Close your eyes and imagine a day where Terry Rozier costs $8,000 on DraftKings and $8,200 on FanDuel. Now open your eyes and come to realize that day is today. In his defense, he has been a beast lately and is coming off a dominant performance that saw him drop 51.75 DraftKings points against the Wizards (although it was over 48 minutes in an overtime game). With Shane Larkin on a minute restriction and the lack of backcourt depth, he’s going to get all the minutes he can get. The matchup is elite against the Magic, who rank 30th in DvP against point guards. I just have a hard time recommending him at this price tag and with Horford expected back. I’m going to list him as a secondary GPP play because stranger things have happened, but he’s not someone I’m actively prioritizing.

Per CourtIQ, when Kyrie, Smart, Theis and Brown are off the court, Jayson Tatum leads the team with a 31.1% usage rate (you can find that info here). Tatum’s price is rising due to his recent success, but he’s still in-play on this slate against a Magic team that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. It’ll be interesting to see how Horford’s return impacts Tatum’s production and how the Celtics adjust the starting lineup. On Wednesday they went with Rozier/Tatum/Morris/Yabusele/Baynes. I’d expect Horford to start for Yabusele, but we’ll see.

Speaking of Horford, he’s second on the team with a 30.4% usage rate per that CourtIQ run. Despite being out sick the past two games, his price rose, likely due to the matchup against a Magic team that ranks 26th in DvP against power forwards. I’m assuming he has no restrictions, but I’ll be sure to update this Grind Down if I come across anything. I’m viewing him more as an elite tournament play given the price bump and uncertainty around his illness. With Horford back, I’d expect Greg Monroe to return to his usual bench role after he played an extended 25 minutes in their last game. Similarly, Marcus Morris played 44 minutes in a #brothersnarrative game against Markieff Morris and the Wizards. Marcus finished with 48.75 DraftKings points but that’s not something I want to chase.

Honestly, it feels a bit weird not to recommend any elite plays from a Celtics team short on players and up against a weak Magic defense, but the sites have adjusted their prices to a point where the value has been zapped away. If some of these guys were a tad cheaper I would feel more comfortable recommending them as elite, but as such, I see them more as secondary pieces, with several great options in tournaments in case one of them steps up above the rest.

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 104.4 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.5 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.8 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.4 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (8 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Al Horford (GPP), Marcus Morris, Terry Rozier (GPP), Jayson Tatum

Orlando Magic

Notable Injuries

Aaron Gordon (Questionable)

We’ll need to monitor the news on Aaron Gordon, who is officially questionable with his second concussion this season and is currently in the concussion protocol. Personally, I would be shocked if he plays and I don’t see any reason why the Magic would even risk it at this point. I’m going to do this writeup with the assumption Gordon is out, but if he’s back and starting, that has a big trickle down effect on everyone, as that would shift Jonathan Isaac back to the bench and have huge usage impacts to Jonathon Simmons, Mario Hezonja, D.J. Augustin and Nikola Vucevic.

Simmons is coming off a career-high 35 points against the Bucks and has gone berserk at times with Gordon and Evan Fournier out. I’m generally not an advocate of targeting the NBA’s #1 defense in the Celtics, but the Celtics are missing some of their key defensive stars, so I’m more willing to attack it at this point in the season. With Gordon and Fournier off the court, CourtIQ shows Simmons sees the biggest usage bump on the team (CourtIQ run is here).

Nikola Vucevic also benefits with Gordon out and given how ugly center is on this slate, I don’t mind him in tournaments. He’s pricey though so you’re paying a premium here for him.

Jonathan Isaac has been drawing the starts for Aaron Gordon but hasn’t played more than 26 minutes in any of starts this March. He’s also only surpassed 15 Draftkings points once during that stretch. Despite his price being cheap, I’d rather go elsewhere until he’s shown a higher (and more consistent) floor to use in cash games. If I’m punting I’d rather just pay a little more for Mario Hezonja for his ceiling, but he has been in a funk recently shooting just 36% over his last six games.

I don’t want to chase D.J. Augustin’s 47.25 DraftKings point performance against the Bucks, but it’s worth mentioning because he’s still very affordable. Augustin scored a season-high 32 points and it was just the fourth time in his career he’s scored 30 or more points, so I’m not expecting this to be a new trend.

Orlando Magic Offense

Points Per Game: 104.7 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (21 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jonathon Simmons (GPP if Aaron Gordon is out)

Secondary Plays – D.J. Augustin, Nikola Vucevic

Dallas Mavericks at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total		213.0					Vegas Total		213.0
			Vegas Spread		11.0					Vegas Spread		-11.0
			Implied Team Total		101.0					Implied Team Total		112.0
			Pace Projection +/-		0.6					Pace Projection +/-		-2.1
Projected Starters	Dennis Smith	Yogi Ferrell	Harrison Barnes	Dorian Finney-Smith	Dirk Nowitzki		Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	OG Anunoby	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	6	3	5	8	19		DvP	21	10	9	18	5
DRPM Rat.	3	22	4	13	14		DRPM Rat.	29	2	29	9	21

Dallas Mavericks

Notable Injuries

Update 12:32pm EST – J.J. Barea will play while Salah Mejri is out. I’m removing Yogi Ferrell as an elite option with Barea back.

J.J. Barea (Questionable), Salah Mejri (Questionable)

The trying-to-tank-but-accidentally-keep-winning Mavericks are a hot mess right now. They’re doing everything they can to lose, such as starting Dorian Finney-Smith over Dwight Powell and giving Nerlens Noel 20 minutes a night. Sadly, they’ve still won three of their last four games, so their opponents must be tanking more than they are. We’ll need to monitor the news on J.J. Barea, who is questionable with a rib injury. With Wesley Matthews already ruled out for the season, Barea’s absence would mean even more minutes for Dennis Smith Jr., Yogi Ferrell and possibly Kyle Collinsworth.

Harrison Barnes continues to log solid minutes and is a steady presence in this Mavericks lineup, making him a fine play. And amazingly Dirk Nowitzki continues to show up every night and post respectable scores that would be cash-game viable. But with so many moving parts and the uncertainty of what the Mavericks will do on a given night, it’s hard to trust Dirk. I much preferred Dwight Powell as a starter, but with his move to the bench (although it could be temporary) and the timeshare approach they are taking, I don’t have interest anymore. As for Nerlens Noel, he has some deep GPP appeal in the event he randomly gets 20-25 minutes, but your guess is as good as mine whether he actually does.

So for me, my main interest on this team centers around DSJ, Barnes, Yogi (if Barea sits) and some deep GPP dart throws on guys like Collinsworth and Noel if you’re trying to differentiate yourself in large field tournaments. I can’t recommend Dirk Nowitzki as his minutes have been trending down and I don’t see much reason for the Mavs to roll him out there other than the fact he’s Dirk Nowitzki and he’s an icon in Dallas. But the Mavericks are a team that will likely fluctuate in terms of their minutes and rotations to the point where it may just drive us crazy trying to figure it out.

Dallas Mavericks Offense

Points Per Game: 102.4 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.0 (5 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -1.4 ( of 6)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.4 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.7 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.0 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (11 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dennis Smith Jr.

Secondary Plays – Harrison Barnes, Nerlens Noel (GPP)

Toronto Raptors

Notable Injuries

Norman Powell (Questionable)

This is the backend game of a back-to-back for the Raptors. The Raptors got OG Anunoby back from injury on Thursday, but he didn’t play. Additionally, Norman Powell missed the game, so I’m thinking he’s questionable for Friday. C.J. Miles also left the game early with an elbow injury and didn’t return so his status should be monitored as his absence would lead to more shots to go around in the second unit.

Normally I’d be open to paying some of these prices for these Raptors, but the Raptors have won 10 straight games and now own a five game lead for the #1 seed over the ailing Celtics. I don’t expect the Raptors to slow down or take it easy, but a game against a tanking Dallas team doesn’t excite me in terms of game environment. There’s just no incentive for Coach Casey to push his starters. To me, Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Serge Ibaka are secondary plays. Jonas Valanciunas is probably my favorite option of the starters as he gets an elite matchup against a weak Mavericks frontcourt. He’s coming off a 16 point, 17 rebound, 2 block line Thursday night and has tournament appeal even if he gets limited minutes. He’s very volatile though so I would stay away in cash games.

I honestly feel their entire second unit is viable if you need salary relief. This game could blow out, and I’d have interest in Fred VanVleet, Jakob Poeltl, Delon Wright and Pascal Siakam. The difficult part is that this second unit is so deep that on any given night one or two of them could be going off while the others have quieter games, so it’s difficult to pinpoint where the production will come from.

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 112.3 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.0 (3 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -0.3 ( of 6)

Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jonas Valanciunas (GPP)

Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka, Kyle Lowry, Raptors second unit (for salary relief)

Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers							Oklahoma City Thunder
			Vegas Total							Vegas Total
			Vegas Spread							Vegas Spread
			Implied Team Total							Implied Team Total
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.7					Pace Projection +/-		1.7
Projected Starters	Austin Rivers	Lou Williams	Sindarius Thornwell	Tobias Harris	DeAndre Jordan		Projected Starters	Russell Westbrook	Corey Brewer	Paul George	Carmelo Anthony	Steven Adams
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	5	22	8	11	2		DvP	16	29	23	24	22
DRPM Rat.	8	20	5	27	20		DRPM Rat.	26	29	4	18	7

Los Angeles Clippers

Notable Injuries

None

The Clippers are coming off a loss to the Rockets and dropped to the #9 seed in the Western Conference standings, so it’s all-hands-on-deck right now for Los Angeles. The good news is they may be catching the Thunder at a good time, as both Paul George and Steven Adams are questionable with injuries.

Because the Clippers are fighting for their playoff lives, it looks like Doc Rivers is playing a tighter rotation. On Thursday only 10 guys played but only six played 20 or more minutes. In fact, every starter played at least 35 minutes. This is good for DFS, because it helps us narrow down our players to target. This may be my favorite game to stack if you’re into game stacks because the production is concentrated in certain spots.

Tobias Harris has been on a tear lately and should draw Carmelo Anthony “defense”, making him my favorite play on the Clippers. I also have a lot of interest in DeAndre Jordan, especially if Steven Adams misses this game. Jordan dropped a 26 point, 17 rebound gem against Adams and the Thunder earlier this season too.

I’m a bit torn on the Clippers’ guards. Lou Williams hasn’t flashed 40 point upside since being moved into the starting lineup, but he’s had tremendous success against this team previously off the bench. In two meetings with the Thunder, Williams has finished with 44.9 and 40.6 FanDuel points. I think he’s fine in this matchup, but I’m wondering if he’d be better suited in the second unit. As for Austin Rivers, I’m not a big fan of the guy, but maybe that’s my personal bias. I view him more as a secondary option and not someone I’m excited to roster as I question his ceiling in DFS.

Sindarius Thornwell has been logging heavy minutes lately. He’s dirt cheap and an option if you really need a punt, but just know he’s not a primary option on this team so you’re just banking that he hits value based on his minutes. I’m not going to recommend him, but I understand it if you decide to play him. I’d rather go with the second unit value found on the Raptors, who I know can all score.

Los Angeles Clippers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.4 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.2 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (19 of 30)

Elite Plays – Tobias Harris, DeAndre Jordan

Secondary Plays – Austin Rivers, Lou Williams

Oklahoma City Thunder

Notable Injuries

Steven Adams (Questionable), Paul George (Questionable)

With both Steven Adams and Paul George questionable, we’ll need to closely monitor the Thunder news. If one or both are out, it’ll be hard to ignore Russell Westbrook as the primary play on Friday’s slate. Per CourtIQ, when George and Adams (and Andre Roberson) are off the court, Westbrook has an insane 47.2% usage rate and averages 1.8 fantasy points per minute. Carmelo Anthony then has a 34.5% usage rate and averages 1.1 fantasy points per minute. Depending on what news we get on Friday, I would leverage CourtIQ and run those scenarios.

Here’s how I’m approaching it: if both Adams and George are out, I view Westbrook and Carmelo as elite plays. Stacking the two soaks up so much of the team’s usage that I’d be fine with pairing them. You could even throw in Jerami Grant, who will likely see a big bump in minutes if the Thunder go small.

If we hear only one of Adams or George is out, Westbrook is still an elite play, but that may be enough to take me off Carmelo. I will admit he’s incredibly cheap around the industry though, but chalk Carmelo never ends well, right?

If both Adams and George are playing, then we’re back to square one and I will likely focus on Westbrook and maybe even Paul George given he’s a SoCal guy. My hope is we get some clarity early enough in the day so we can build lineups knowing how to approach this situation. In my opinion, this news shapes the slate and I probably won’t even build lineups until we get more information.

Also, I need to point out that Corey Brewer has morphed into LeBron James. The guy has been incredible lately and is firmly in play on this slate if OKC is short-handed.

Oklahoma City Thunder Offense

Points Per Game: 106.9 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.0 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.3 (6 of 30)

Elite Plays – Carmelo Anthony (if Adams and/or George are out), Russell Westbrook

Secondary Plays – Corey Brewer, Jerami Grant (if Adams and/or George is out)

Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM ET

Miami Heat							Los Angeles Lakers
			Vegas Total							Vegas Total
			Vegas Spread							Vegas Spread
			Implied Team Total							Implied Team Total
			Pace Projection +/-		3.6					Pace Projection +/-		-2.1
Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Tyler Johnson	Luke Babbitt	James Johnson	Bam Adebayo		Projected Starters	Lonzo Ball	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	Kyle Kuzma	Julius Randle	Brook Lopez
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	23	23	29	29	16		DvP	4	13	2	6	9
DRPM Rat.	1	7	30	18	23		DRPM Rat.	22	14	24	14	10

Miami Heat

Notable Injuries

Update 3:05pm EST – Josh Richardson has been upgraded to questionable. if he plays, that would likely take me off Wayne Ellington and lower my excitement about Goran Dragic. Stay tuned.

Hassan Whiteside (Out), Josh Richardson (Doubtful), Dwyane Wade (Out)

The Miami Heat get a pace-up spot against the Lakers but will be without starting center Hassan Whiteside, Dwyane Wade and possibly even Josh Richardson. The Heat are in must-win mode as they have dropped to the #8 seed in the Eastern Conference standings. In their last game, the Heat utilized a nine-man rotation. Bam Adebayo drew the start at center and pulled down a career high 16 rebounds. I’m expecting him to start again. Luke Babbitt started but only played 14 scoreless minutes, while it was Justise Winslow (38 minutes), Wayne Ellington (36 minutes) and Kelly Olynyk (31 minutes) dominating time off the bench. If Richardson is ruled out once again, I’d expect Ellington to see heavy minutes off the bench. The absence of Dwyane Wade will also provide more security for Justise Winslow and Tyler Johnson to gain playing time.

So while the Heat ran nine guys out there, in my opinion it’s really a tight seven man rotation (I’m excluding Babbitt and Rodney McGruder, who did see 19 minutes last game). It’s hard not to be interested in the Heat when their prices are cheap across the industry, they get to face the #1 team in terms of pace and they are running a tight rotation. Bam Adebayo is only $3,900 on FanDuel and makes sense as an elite cash game play at that price. James Johnson is also only $4,700 on FanDuel and is coming off a dominant 47.5 FanDuel point performance. On DraftKings, Wayne Ellington is only $4,400 and should see an expanded role with Richardson doubtful. This is a great spot to fill out your rosters as there should be plenty of value to be had on the Heat.

This is also a nice spot for Goran Dragic, but personally I’d rather go after the cheaper pieces on the Heat as opposed to paying up for Dragic. He’s a fine GPP play, but I view him more as a secondary play on this slate when I can get exposure to this game much cheaper through his teammates.

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 102.4 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.1 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.2 (1 of 30)

Elite Plays – Bam Adebayo, James Johnson

Secondary Plays – Wayne Ellington, Goran Dragic, Kelly Olynyk, Justise Winslow

Los Angeles Lakers

Notable Injuries

Brandon Ingram (Out), Kyle Kuzma (Questionable)

The big news on the Lakers will be the availability of Kyle Kuzma, who was a surprise scratch last game. If he can’t go, Isaiah Thomas may draw another start like he did the previous night.

Miami is a top 10 team in defensive efficiency and a bottom-five team in terms of pace, so they are generally a team I avoid players against. But the Heat will be without two-to-three of their key players and given this is a shorter six game slate, I’m willing to make an exception. Julius Randle has been on a tear lately, but there’s a clear pricing difference between sites. On FanDuel he is only $7,400 while on DraftKings he’s $8,200. I much prefer Randle on FanDuel.

I have no idea how Brook Lopez keeps doing the things that he’s doing, but at this point I cant ignore him. He’s scored at least 33 DraftKings points in five of his last six games and gets to avoid the defense of Hassan Whiteside. The problem is his price has risen to an uncomfortable level across the industry and I don’t think I’m willing to pay it.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should continue to log heavy minutes with Brandon Ingram out, and he’s firmly in-play as a solid cash game target. In the seven games that Ingram has been out, KCP has averaged 38.3 minutes per game. He’s cheaper than Isaiah Thomas on both sites and I’d rather have KCP with his huge minute upside than Thomas if he drew another start on behalf of Kuzma.

I’m honestly torn about Lonzo Ball in this spot. When he played the Heat earlier this month he finished with 38 DraftKings points, which is great. But he took a total of five shots in that game and his fantasy production was driven by the fact he nabbed six steals. I don’t doubt his ability to gather steals, but he seems to be in another shooting slump. Over his past three games, he’s shooting a combined 7-for-33 (21.2%). That includes his 3-for-21 beyond the arc. This isn’t to say he can’t and won’t turn it around on Friday, but when his shot isn’t falling he’s completely dependent on his peripheral stats, and that can be scary at his price point and against a better defense like the Heat. I’m viewing Lonzo as a secondary tournament play given the variance in his game.

With all the injuries, the Lakers have really begun to roll out a condensed rotation, making all their starters at least players to consider. I couldn’t say this earlier in the season, but Coach Walton seems to changed his approach.

Los Angeles Lakers Offense

Points Per Game: 108.8 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.8 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Julius Randle (FD)

Secondary Plays – Lonzo Ball (GPP), Brook Lopez, Isaiah Thomas

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