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NBA Grind Down: Monday, January 30th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-31 02:46:43

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Sacramento Kings at Philadelphia 76ers – 6:00 PM ET

Sacramento Kings Philadelphia 76ers
sacramentonba Vegas Total 205.0 philadelphianba Vegas Total 205.0
Vegas Spread 1.0 Vegas Spread -1.0
Team Total 102.0 Team Total 103.0
Pace +/- 1.3 Pace +/- -2.3
Proj. Starter Darren Collison Arron Afflalo Garrett Temple DeMarcus Cousins Kosta Koufos Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Ersan Ilyasova Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 11 26 8 6 26 Adj. DvP 19 19 20 10 12
DRPM 0.63 -0.68 2.93 0.53 2.51 DRPM -2.19 -2.10 0.41 0.60 2.87

Sacramento Kings

We have a rare early game today between the Kings and Sixers. It is a make-up game for the one that was postponed earlier in the season. Unfortunately, with the weird start time, the game will not be included in the main slate on either FanDuel or DraftKings. This game is included in the early-only and all-day slates. The Kings are one of the only teams in the NBA with a better record on the road than they have at home. They draw a mediocre matchup against a Sixers’ defense that is ranked 19th in points allowed per game and 12th in defensive efficiency. The game is expected to stay close throughout and the over/under is set at 205 points.

Darren Collison has played well in his last three games, averaging 39 minutes and 33 fantasy points. His price is only $5,100 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he draws a decent matchup against the likes of T.J. McConnell and Sergio Rodriguez. I hesitate to call Collison an elite play because Ty Lawson can take over a game at any time and that usually leaves Collison on the bench when that happens. With that said, Collison should be on your radar in the early-only slates. Arron Afflalo and Garrett Temple should both play minutes in the low 30s tonight. While neither is the most productive on a per-minute basis, they are both viable values at shooting guard. DeMarcus Cousins and Joel Embiid are fans of one another and should put on a show tonight, assuming Embiid is able to suit up. In their first meeting this season, Cousins scored 51 fantasy points in 34 minutes of action.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Darren Collison $5,100 $5,100 0.75 30.0 9.0 22.5 10.3 21.4% 0.2% 11 0.63
Arron Afflalo $3,600 $3,400 0.51 24.7 10.4 12.5 6.6 14.2% -1.7% 26 -0.68
Garrett Temple $4,200 $4,200 0.63 26.6 5.0 16.7 -1.4 14.3% -0.4% 8 2.93
DeMarcus Cousins $11,100 $10,900 1.43 34.7 2.8 49.5 7.9 36.8% 0.0% 6 0.53
Kosta Koufos $3,500 $3,000 0.79 19.4 -0.1 15.3 -0.3 13.9% -1.9% 26 2.51
Ty Lawson $4,600 $4,000 0.78 24.8 -0.9 19.3 0.3 21.9% -0.1% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – DeMarcus Cousins

Secondary Plays – Darren Collison, Arron Afflalo, Garrett Temple

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have won six of their last ten games and while making the playoffs is a long shot at this point, they have surpassed expectations this season. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Kings, who are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Sixers have an implied total of 103 points and are actually favored in this game. The line leads me to believe that the oddsmakers expect Joel Embiid to play, but he is officially listed as a game-time decision. The good news is that we will know his status well before lineups lock. Jahlil Okafor was a healthy scratch last night because he was not in “game shape.” It’s hard to imagine that has changed in the last 24 hours.

T.J. McConnell has played well as the Sixers’ starting point guard, but a few people in Philadelphia are taking the love a little too far. Apparently, fans were calling up local radio stations saying that McConnell is the point guard of the future and that the Sixers should look to trade Ben Simmons. While I’m a McConnell fan, I’m not going to call him a franchise point guard. In terms of the matchup tonight, this is a favorable one for McConnell. The Kings are ranked 19th against point guards and Darren Collison has a DRPM of -2.19. Robert Covington has had some monster fantasy outings recently and he has seen 35+ minutes fairly consistently. He is a borderline elite play against a Rudy Gay-less Kings’ team. Ersan Ilyasova would become an elite play if Joel Embiid is unable to suit up tonight. The same could be said for Nerlens Noel, who is averaging 24 fantasy points per game with Embiid out. If Embiid is active, he immediately becomes an elite play in all formats. He scored 36 fantasy points against DeMarcus Cousins and the Kings in their first meeting this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $5,700 $5,300 0.81 23.7 7.6 19.2 13.7 19.4% 1.0% 19 -2.19
Nik Stauskas $3,500 $3,400 0.58 26.3 2.7 15.2 3.1 16.1% 1.8% 19 -2.10
Robert Covington $5,600 $5,900 0.77 30.8 5.4 23.8 8.0 17.7% -0.2% 20 0.41
Ersan Ilyasova $5,700 $5,800 0.91 27.4 0.7 25.0 2.2 22.3% 4.3% 10 0.60
Joel Embiid $8,700 $8,600 1.41 25.4 2.8 35.7 15.7 35.1% 5.7% 12 2.87
Nerlens Noel $4,700 $6,300 1.08 17.6 6.6 19.0 10.9 17.9% -1.9% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – Robert Covington, Joel Embiid (if active), Nerlens Noel and Ersan Ilyasova (if Embiid is out)

Secondary Plays – T.J. McConnell, Nerlens Noel and Ersan Ilyasova (if Embiid is active)

Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets Miami Heat
brooklynnba Vegas Total 217.5 miaminba Vegas Total 217.5
Vegas Spread 8.5 Vegas Spread -8.5
Team Total 104.5 Team Total 113.0
Pace +/- -1.4 Pace +/- 5.4
Proj. Starter Spencer Dinwiddie Randy Foye Bojan Bogdanovic Trevor Booker Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Rodney McGruder Dion Waiters Luke Babbitt Hassan Whiteside
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 7 5 13 9 11 Adj. DvP 30 30 30 30 29
DRPM -2.35 -1.04 -0.12 1.63 1.81 DRPM -0.41 -1.56 -3.39 2.10 -0.33

Brooklyn Nets

The main slate starts with this game and unlike most nights, leagues aren’t going to lock until 7:30 E.T., which gives us an extra half hour to tinker with our lineups. The Nets are the worst team in basketball and it’s really not close. They have lost nine of their last ten games and are 2-21 on the road. They come into tonight’s game as 8.5-point underdogs in a pace-down matchup against the Heat. So far this season, Miami is ranked 22nd in pace of play and seventh in points allowed per game. The Nets have an implied total of 104.5 points, which is 1.5 points below their season average.

The Nets have been a tough team to get a read on this season. They don’t like to play their starters big minutes and they typically have one of the deepest rotations in the NBA. Spencer Dinwiddie and Isaiah Whitehead continue to split minutes at point guard. While I prefer Dinwiddie over Whitehead, neither player stands out as a viable option tonight. Joe Harris has already been ruled out of tonight’s game and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is listed as questionable. Bojan Bogdanovic, Sean Kilpatrick, and Caris LeVert are all intriguing plays on the wing, although the trio makes for better GPP options than cash game targets. Trevor Booker’s minutes and production are way down over the last two weeks. He can be avoided in all formats. Brook Lopez is the top target on this side of the ball. He is averaging 39 fantasy points in his last three games and he is still only $6,500 on DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Spencer Dinwiddie $3,900 $3,600 0.67 20.8 6.8 14.0 5.8 16.4% -1.0% 7 -2.35
Randy Foye $3,600 $3,000 0.61 18.3 6.6 11.2 4.9 17.6% -0.3% 5 -1.04
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,300 $4,200 0.77 26.5 0.4 20.3 1.1 21.3% 2.4% 13 -0.12
Trevor Booker $4,900 $4,500 0.95 26.6 -6.9 25.3 -10.7 17.1% -2.8% 9 1.63
Brook Lopez $7,500 $6,500 1.11 29.3 2.5 32.6 6.2 28.1% 0.9% 11 1.81
Sean Kilpatrick $4,100 $4,400 0.83 26.9 -2.2 22.3 -4.8 24.0% -2.6% 5 N/A
Caris LeVert $4,400 $4,000 0.76 19.2 7.5 14.6 5.7 16.4% 0.3% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Brook Lopez (DK)

Secondary Plays – Brook Lopez (FD), Bojan Bogdanovic, Sean Kilpatrick, Caris LeVert

Miami Heat

The Heat have won seven games in a row and have a great chance to extend the best current winning streak in basketball. They draw a favorable matchup against the Nets, who have really struggled on the road this season. Not only should Miami be able to pick up the win, but they draw the best possible matchup in all of fantasy basketball. On the season, Brooklyn is ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game at 115.2. The Heat have an implied total of 113 points, which is the highest in the slate and 13.5 points above their season average. Miami has one of the highest projected point differentials that we have seen all season. In case you missed it, JMtoWin and I talked about the importance of targeting high projected point differentials.

With such a great matchup at home, we can give a sizable boost to Miami’s offense as a whole. Even with Tyler Johnson hoping to play tonight, Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters are still strong plays in all formats. The Nets are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to both point guards, shooting guards, and small forwards. Dragic is the better value of the two, but Waiters is still a nice play on FanDuel at $6,300. If Johnson ends up being a late scratch, you can pair Dragic and Waiters in both cash games and tournaments. Wayne Ellington’s fantasy appeal hinges on the availability of Johnson, so adjust your lineups accordingly once we get an update on his status. Hassan Whiteside has been battling a few injuries over the last month of play and hasn’t topped the 40-fantasy point mark since January 10th. I love his matchup against the Nets, but we aren’t getting a big enough discount to take on the risk of rostering him. James Johnson has scored 31 and 41 fantasy points in his last two games. He is volatile, but one of the top power forward targets in the slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $7,800 $7,600 0.97 34.5 1.1 33.3 7.8 29.0% 0.6% 30 -0.41
Rodney McGruder $3,600 $3,000 0.50 25.7 0.0 12.9 3.6 11.9% 1.1% 30 -1.56
Dion Waiters $6,300 $7,000 0.83 30.5 4.4 25.2 6.2 27.0% 1.7% 30 -3.39
Luke Babbitt $3,500 $3,000 0.53 15.9 -1.4 8.4 -0.3 13.1% -2.7% 30 2.10
Hassan Whiteside $8,900 $7,500 1.14 33.2 -8.3 37.9 -19.9 21.4% -1.2% 29 -0.33
James Johnson $6,000 $5,800 0.91 26.0 1.3 23.7 5.0 22.5% 2.0% 30 N/A

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters, James Johnson

Secondary Plays – Hassan Whiteside, Wayne Ellington (if Tyler Johnson is out)

Orlando Magic at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET

Orlando Magic Minnesota Timberwolves
orlandonba Vegas Total 210.5 minnesotanba Vegas Total 210.5
Vegas Spread 8.5 Vegas Spread -8.5
Team Total 101.0 Team Total 109.5
Pace +/- -1.6 Pace +/- -0.4
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton C.J. Watson Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Nikola Vucevic Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 14 4 7 7 17 Adj. DvP 28 18 21 8 22
DRPM 1.44 -3.31 -2.02 3.10 -0.84 DRPM -0.55 -0.18 -0.99 0.44 1.58

Orlando Magic

One of the reasons why I love daily fantasy basketball so much is that it has less variance than some of the other sports. The Magic are trying their absolute best to change that narrative. In games where they have been small favorites, they have lost by 30 points. In games where they have been underdogs (like last night against the Raptors), they have come out and won. I have no idea what to expect from them on a nightly basis. I have nightmares of Elfrid Payton’s hair eating my lineups alive every night. The Magic are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight, as they square off against the Wolves. They come into the game as 8.5-point underdogs, so we should expect them to win or lose by 30.

If we assume that this game stays close and that the Magic’s starters play a full complement of minutes, this is a decent matchup overall. Unfortunately, we can’t really make those assumptions, at least not in a cash game setting. All of the Magic players are risky cash game targets tonight, so keep that in mind when building your lineups. Elfrid Payton has been wildly inconsistent, but we know he has 40+ fantasy point type of upside and his price is still below $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I see him as an elite tournament play and a secondary cash game target. Evan Fournier has been questionable for weeks now, but I don’t expect him to play tonight. Aaron Gordon, C.J. Watson, D.J. Augustin, and Jeff Green will all see small boosts if Fournier is ruled out again. Gordon is my favorite target of the bunch, but he may be more inconsistent than Payton. Nikola Vucevic is my favorite target from the Magic tonight. His price is awfully enticing on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He is averaging 37 fantasy points in his last three games and the Wolves are ranked 17th against centers on the season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $6,600 $6,700 0.93 29.3 3.1 27.3 -1.0 25.6% 2.5% 14 1.44
C.J. Watson $4,000 $3,800 0.53 15.1 14.4 8.0 10.3 15.0% -0.8% 4 -3.31
Aaron Gordon $5,200 $5,200 0.77 27.6 0.6 21.3 -3.6 19.8% 0.4% 7 -2.02
Serge Ibaka $5,700 $6,000 0.92 30.2 -0.2 27.8 -6.4 20.0% -3.3% 7 3.10
Nikola Vucevic $6,600 $6,400 1.14 28.1 1.5 32.0 5.3 25.0% 1.6% 17 -0.84
Jeff Green $3,700 $3,700 0.64 23.8 2.0 15.3 2.4 19.7% -0.2% 7 N/A

Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton (GPP), Nikola Vucevic (DK)

Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (Cash), Nikola Vucevic (FD), Aaron Gordon (GPP)

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves have won seven of their last ten games and are my dark horse pick to sneak into the playoffs as the eighth seed in the West. They should be able to add another win to their resume tonight, as they host the visiting Magic. If you take out their last game against the Nets, most of the Wolves’ wins this season have been competitive games. The Magic are obviously a team prone to getting blown out, but hopefully the game stays close enough for the starters to see their usual playing time. Minnesota comes into the game with an implied total of 109.5 points, which is the third highest in the slate and 5.5 points above their season average.

Ricky Rubio is averaging over 30 fantasy points in his last three games, but he is a tough sell. He is priced like a player that is averaging 32-35 fantasy points per game, when he only averages 26.1 on the season. Even in a great matchup against the Magic, I will be fading Rubio in all formats. Zach LaVine finally seems to be out of his funk. He is averaging over 30 fantasy points in his last three games as well and is a bit cheaper than Rubio. Andrew Wiggins should play minutes in the high 30s and while Aaron Gordon is a decent defender, Wiggins makes a lot of sense at small forward. I never seem to be on the right side of Gorgui Dieng, which means everyone else should load up on him tonight. In other words, I’m fading him for the likes of James Johnson and Zach Randolph. I love the minute upside for Karl-Anthony Towns right now. If this game stays close, he is basically going to see close to 40 minutes against a Magic team that is ranked 22nd against centers and 24th in rebounding differential. Shabazz Muhammed is a sneaky GPP target off the bench, especially if you think the game will turn into a blowout.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $6,600 $7,100 0.83 31.4 -1.9 26.1 4.1 18.6% 3.2% 28 -0.55
Zach LaVine $6,400 $6,700 0.76 37.2 0.2 28.2 2.4 22.3% -2.4% 18 -0.18
Andrew Wiggins $7,300 $7,200 0.83 37.1 1.3 30.8 5.3 27.3% 0.2% 21 -0.99
Gorgui Dieng $5,800 $5,700 0.80 32.2 1.6 25.7 6.0 15.4% -0.1% 8 0.44
Karl-Anthony Towns $10,900 $10,800 1.20 36.2 1.3 43.4 7.1 27.4% 1.8% 22 1.58
Shabazz Muhammad $3,900 $3,800 0.68 19.0 5.9 12.9 8.2 18.3% -1.6% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, Zach LaVine (FD)

Secondary Plays – Ricky Rubio, Zach LaVine (DK), Gorgui Dieng, Shabazz Muhammed

Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics – 8:00 PM ET

Detroit Pistons Boston Celtics
detroitnba Vegas Total 214.0 bostonnba Vegas Total 214.0
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Team Total 104.0 Team Total 110.0
Pace +/- -0.1 Pace +/- -2.3
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Jon Leuer Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Jaylen Brown Jae Crowder Jonas Jerebko Al Horford
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 21 23 6 22 20 Adj. DvP 22 7 15 4 18
DRPM -4.64 0.23 0.89 0.21 0.90 DRPM -2.17 0.17 0.66 1.07 1.65

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are a fringe playoff team in the Eastern Conference. They have won five of their last ten games, but would be out of the playoffs if the regular season ended today. They draw a favorable fantasy matchup tonight against the Celtics, who are ranked 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Detroit is listed as a six point underdog tonight, but they have an implied total of 104 points. Not only is that the seventh highest in the slate, but it is 3.4 points above their season average. The best part is that the Pistons tend to get overlooked on most nights.

Reggie Jackson is my favorite point guard in the entire slate. Of course, I’m not talking in a raw projection sense, but in terms of points per dollar. You may be tired of hearing this, but Isaiah Thomas is the worst defender in the NBA. If you were ranking the best meals, Thomas would basically be a kale salad with no dressing. Jackson should see minutes in the low-30s and due to his recent slump, his price is down across the industry. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a safe target at shooting guard. He should play around 35 minutes and he could potentially draw the defense of Thomas if the Celtics decide to put someone else on Jackson. Marcus Morris, Tobias Harris, and Jon Leuer are all viable plays at forward. They all see a slight boost in their rebounding projection against Boston. Speaking of rebounding, Drummond has the potential for perfect vision – a 20/20 night. The Celtics are ranked 20th against centers and 26th in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Reggie Jackson $6,600 $6,300 0.93 29.4 3.1 27.4 5.7 31.2% 1.1% 21 -4.64
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $5,400 $5,500 0.73 33.6 1.8 24.5 -3.8 19.8% -1.1% 23 0.23
Marcus Morris $5,300 $5,400 0.70 32.7 4.3 23.0 4.1 19.8% -1.0% 6 0.89
Jon Leuer $4,400 $4,400 0.80 26.7 -1.2 21.4 -1.5 17.0% -1.0% 22 0.21
Andre Drummond $8,000 $7,700 1.17 30.6 -1.0 35.9 -1.0 21.8% -1.8% 20 0.90
Tobias Harris $5,900 $5,600 0.81 32.8 -1.7 26.5 -2.6 21.4% 0.2% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – Reggie Jackson, Andre Drummond (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Andre Drummond (Cash), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Marcus Morris, Tobias Harris, Jon Leuer

Boston Celtics

The Celtics have won three games in a row and six of their last ten. They have overtaken the Raptors for the second best record in the Eastern Conference. They come into tonight’s game as 8.5-point favorites against the Pistons. While Detroit typically isn’t a matchup that we like to target in DFS, the Celtics have an implied total of 110 points, which is more than their season average and the highest in the slate. Avery Bradley has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. Al Horford is listed as questionable, although I am tentatively expecting him to return to the lineup.

Avery Bradley has been out long enough that everyone should know the deal by now. Isaiah Thomas sees a nice usage and minutes boost, Jaylen Brown gets the start and sees a massive fantasy production boost, Jae Crowder sees a small usage and minutes boost, and the Celtics run more of their plays through Al Horford. I will never talk anyone out of playing Thomas, especially in a favorable matchup against the Pistons. The only knock that I have on him is his price tag. He is a better play on DraftKings ($9,400) than FanDuel ($10,000). Brown has scored 31 and 25 fantasy points in his last two games and will be a popular value play tonight. I don’t love his matchup against the Pistons, but still see him as a viable punt at shooting guard. Jae Crowder has been my go-to play at small forward for the last two weeks and there is no reason for that to change tonight. If Horford is able to suit up, he makes for an excellent tournament play. Players that have a questionable tag next to their name almost always go under-owned in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $10,000 $9,400 1.20 34.2 0.3 41.2 7.6 35.1% -0.7% 22 -2.17
Jaylen Brown $3,900 $3,600 0.68 14.2 9.6 9.7 10.0 17.9% 2.9% 7 0.17
Jae Crowder $6,300 $6,100 0.79 32.3 1.2 25.5 12.7 16.4% 4.9% 15 0.66
Jonas Jerebko $3,500 $3,400 0.64 17.0 5.8 10.9 6.1 12.4% 0.2% 4 1.07
Al Horford $7,700 $7,000 1.03 33.2 0.4 34.3 11.8 22.7% 0.1% 18 1.65
Marcus Smart $5,600 $5,500 0.76 30.6 -1.0 23.2 -0.1 20.1% -2.1% 22 N/A
Kelly Olynyk $4,100 $4,400 0.85 21.1 2.3 18.0 2.7 18.5% 1.4% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas (DK), Jaylen Brown, Jae Crowder, Al Horford (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Al Horford (Cash), Jonas Jerebko and Kelly Olynyk (if Horford is out)

Cleveland Cavaliers at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers Dallas Mavericks
clevelandnba Vegas Total 208.0 dallasnba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Spread -4.5 Vegas Spread 4.5
Team Total 106.3 Team Total 101.8
Pace +/- -5.3 Pace +/- 0.6
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving Iman Shumpert LeBron James Richard Jefferson Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Yogi Ferrell Seth Curry Wesley Matthews Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 1 9 2 3 10 Adj. DvP 25 27 27 11 8
DRPM -2.41 -0.10 -0.27 -0.71 0.84 DRPM -1.41 -0.29 0.83 -0.93 2.36

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are finally back to their winning ways with two straight victories over the Nets and Thunder. They still aren’t playing up to their abilities though, which is why the spread for this game is set at only 4.5 points. If this would have taken place a month ago, the Cavaliers would have been double-digit favorites. Kevin Love being out is another reason why the spread is so close. The Mavericks have not been a great matchup for fantasy production this season, but Love’s absence opens the door for a number of plays here. The Cavaliers still have the fourth highest implied total on the board at 106.3 points.

If we run the CourtIQ tool with Kevin Love off the floor, we see that Kyrie Irving sees a 4.9% usage boost and a 0.15 FP/min boost. Per 36 minutes, Irving averages 44 fantasy points with Love off the floor. That is right around what he needs to reach value tonight and that’s right what I have him projected at. LeBron James doesn’t see a big usage boost with Love off the floor, but he does average 50 fantasy points per 36 minutes. We’ve seen James play upwards of 40 minutes in close games and he should be considered one of the safest plays on the board tonight. Iman Shumpert has played well recently, but is far from an elite play with all the value at shooting guard tonight. Channing Frye is averaging 19.3 fantasy points per game with Love out this season. He is a viable punt play in all formats. On paper, you would think that Tristan Thompson would see a nice boost with Love out, but he actually averages two fewer fantasy points per game when Love is out. If you are targeting Thompson tonight, do it for the matchup. The Mavericks are ranked dead last in rebounding differential.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $8,600 $8,200 1.06 35.2 0.7 37.4 4.4 31.2% -1.0% 1 -2.41
Iman Shumpert $4,100 $4,100 0.61 25.1 3.3 15.3 5.9 14.2% 1.7% 9 -0.10
LeBron James $10,500 $10,000 1.27 37.5 1.1 47.7 5.5 33.0% -1.4% 2 -0.27
Richard Jefferson $3,500 $3,000 0.49 19.6 8.3 9.6 3.4 12.6% -2.7% 3 -0.71
Tristan Thompson $4,900 $4,600 0.80 29.1 2.1 23.3 8.6 10.8% 2.4% 10 0.84
Kyle Korver $3,600 $3,900 0.60 27.0 -2.9 16.1 -3.5 14.8% 3.1% 9 N/A
Channing Frye $3,800 $3,400 0.80 18.5 -1.1 14.9 -2.0 18.3% -2.8% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Channing Frye, Tristan Thompson

Secondary Plays – Iman Shumpert

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks picked up a huge win against the Spurs last night in San Antonio. They have now won six of their last ten games and are only 4.5 games out of the playoff picture in the West. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Cavaliers, who are ranked 15th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. The Mavericks are only 4.5-point underdogs here and they have an implied total of 101.8 points, which is 4.8 points above their season average.

The Mavericks signed Yogi Ferrell to a 10-day contract and immediately threw him into the fire last night against the Spurs. He started at point guard and scored 26 fantasy points in 36 minutes of action. With Deron Williams and J.J. Barea out, Ferrell could see 30+ minutes again tonight. The Mavericks don’t seem to want to play Devin Harris more than 20-22 minutes a night. Ferrell will be a popular value play tonight and for good reason. Seth Curry is basically an auto-play on FanDuel and he is still an elite play on DraftKings. He should see minutes in the mid-30s and he will be one of the main playmakers on offense. Wesley Matthews is a little too expensive on FanDuel and a little too cheap on DraftKings. Harrison Barnes averages 3.3 fantasy points less per game when Dirk Nowitzki is active. The Mavericks are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, but it sounds like Nowitzki is going to suit up tonight. I don’t mind Barnes or Nowitzki here, but neither stands out as a must play.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Yogi Ferrell $3,500 $3,500 0.62 17.0 18.6 10.5 15.4 22.1% -8.5% 25 -1.41
Seth Curry $4,300 $5,300 0.70 27.3 7.7 19.2 11.3 19.9% 6.5% 27 -0.29
Wesley Matthews $5,400 $4,500 0.68 35.3 -4.4 23.9 9.0 20.5% -0.7% 27 0.83
Harrison Barnes $6,600 $6,300 0.84 35.8 1.1 30.0 2.1 25.3% 2.2% 11 -0.93
Dirk Nowitzki $5,700 $5,100 0.97 25.1 1.5 24.4 8.5 25.6% -2.1% 8 2.36
Devin Harris $3,500 $3,900 0.69 15.9 4.2 10.9 4.3 18.3% 0.8% 25 N/A

Elite Plays – Yogi Ferrell, Seth Curry, Wesley Matthews (DK)

Secondary Plays – Harrison Barnes, Dirk Nowitzki

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious