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NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 21st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-23 17:46:32

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Denver Nuggets at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM

Denver Nuggets Cleveland Cavaliers
denvernba Vegas Total 213.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Sprd 11.0 Vegas Sprd -11.0
Team Proj. 101.3 Team Proj. 112.3
Team Pace 98.30 Team Pace 95.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Jakarr Sampson Darrell Arthur Nikola Jokic Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith Iman Shumpert LeBron James Kevin Love
Opp. Season 17 8 3 1 1 Opp. Season 19 27 16 25 14
Last 3 Weeks 11 25 5 3 9 Last 3 Weeks 7 26 16 14 1

Denver Nuggets

Record: 29-41 — Road: 13-22 — Last 10: 6-4

The Nuggets are still technically alive in the playoff hunt, but they would pretty much need to win out to have a shot. They come into tonight’s game in good form, winning six of their last ten games. They draw a difficult matchup against the Cavaliers in Cleveland. The Nuggets are only projected to score 101.3 points, which gives them the sixth lowest team total and the fourth lowest projected point differential.

The Cavaliers have one of the best defenses in the entire NBA. They are ranked third in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Nuggets have a low team total and are double-digit underdogs on the road. With eight other games on the schedule tonight, it is easy to fade Denver altogether. Kenneth Faried is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is ruled out, Darrell Arthur would likely draw the start in his place.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 49-20 — Home: 28-6 — Last 10: 7-3

The Cavaliers have won seven of their last ten games and currently hold a one game lead over the Raptors for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. The Cavaliers would like to rest some players down the stretch, but that may not be an option. They are listed as 11-point favorites with an implied team total of 112.3 points. The Cavaliers have the third highest projected point differential at +8.7.

The Nuggets have not fared well defensively this season, ranking 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. While the Cavaliers’ offense is in a good spot as a whole, the fantasy options here hinge on whether or not Kevin Love is in the lineup. He is listed as questionable, after missing the morning shoot-around with an illness.

Elite Plays

NONE – Unless Kevin Love is ruled out. If that’s the case, LeBron James and Kyrie Irving would both become elite plays. Tristan Thompson would also see a nice boost in minutes.

Secondary Plays

LeBron James
lebron-james-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,500 Salary:$9,200
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.24 FP/Min:1.33
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.6 33.9 -1.7 32.5 -3.1
FPPG (FD) 44.1 43.1 -1.0 38.8 -5.3
TO-Adj. Usage 27.4 27.5 0.0 26.3 -1.1

Using RotoGrinders CourtIQ tool in the Daily Research console, I ran a few different scenarios. Here is the usage rate for LeBron James this season, broken down by who is on the floor:

With Love & Irving: 26
Without Love: 37
Without Irving: 36

As you can see, he has a 26 usage rate when Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving are both on the floor with him. That number jumps all the way up to 37 when Love is off the floor. If Love is ruled out tonight, James would become an elite play in all league formats. He has been coasting over the last few weeks, but would have to shoulder the load offensively tonight.

Kyrie Irving
kyrie-irving-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,100 Salary:$7,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.05
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.9 34.6 3.7 34.1 3.2
FPPG (FD) 30.4 33.9 3.5 29.9 -0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 25.8 25.4 -0.4 25.4 -0.4

I ran the same scenarios for Kyrie Irving using the CourtIQ tool. Here is his usage rate breakdown this season:

With LeBron and Love: 26
Without LeBron: 42
Without Love: 37

As you can see, his usage skyrockets when either LeBron James (42) or Kevin Love (37) is off of the floor. If Love is ruled out tonight, Irving would become an elite play against the Nuggets, who are ranked 19th against point guards this season. Irving also comes into the game in relatively good form, averaging 33.9 fantasy points in his last ten.

Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM

Philadelphia 76ers Indiana Pacers
philadelphianba Vegas Total 208.0 indiananba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Sprd 15.0 Vegas Sprd -15.0
Team Proj. 96.5 Team Proj. 111.5
Team Pace 100.30 Team Pace 99.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Isaiah Canaan Hollis Thompson Jerami Grant Nerlens Noel Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Myles Turner Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 10 10 7 11 16 Opp. Season 27 17 28 28 30
Last 3 Weeks 18 1 29 7 22 Last 3 Weeks 30 18 17 17 29

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 9-61 — Road: 3-31 — Last 10: 1-9

The Sixers have the worst record in the NBA and they have a large enough gap between them and the next team that they don’t have to try to tank. They can still win four more games without any consequence in the lottery. They are listed as 15-point underdogs tonight against the Pacers in Indiana. The Sixers are only projected to score 96.5 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board.

The Pacers have really played well defensively this season, ranking ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. As we know, Jahlil Okafor is out for the season. Robert Covington and Richaun Holmes are both expected back on Wednesday, which means they will likely sit out tonight’s game against the Pacers.

Elite Plays

Nerlens Noel
nerlens-noel-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$6,900
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.95 FP/Min:1.01
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.2 31.7 2.5 32.0 2.8
FPPG (FD) 27.7 32.7 5.0 31.9 4.2
TO-Adj. Usage 14.4 18.3 3.9 17.4 3.0

Noel isn’t a must play at power forward tonight, but he is a borderline elite play in all league formats. He has seen a major boost in minutes and production with all of the injuries to the Sixers’ frontcourt and the Pacers are ranked slightly below average against centers this season. Noel should also be fairly rested, as he only played 24 minutes last night against the Celtics thanks to foul trouble. The potential blowout is a small concern, but the Sixers have no reason not to develop their young players down the stretch of the season.

Secondary Plays

Jerami Grant
jerami-grant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$5,500
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.79 FP/Min:0.82
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.7 30.9 4.2 29.9 3.2
FPPG (FD) 21.0 22.5 1.5 26.7 5.7
TO-Adj. Usage 14.2 15.4 1.2 20.3 6.1

In 41 starts this season, Grant is averaging 29 minutes, 9.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 2.5 blocks/steals. Those numbers may not leap off the page at you, but his ability to fill up the stat sheet makes him an intriguing play tonight. His price is still affordable across the industry and they may need him to play a few extra minutes tonight, especially if the Sixers decide to stick him on Paul George.

Hollis Thompson
hollis-thompson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,200 Salary:$4,400
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.57 FP/Min:0.62
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.7 31.9 4.2 32.6 4.9
FPPG (FD) 15.9 22.0 6.1 21.8 5.9
TO-Adj. Usage 13.2 15.5 2.3 15.3 2.1

Thompson is not a sexy play, but his minutes, usage, and fantasy production are all way up over his last ten games. During that stretch, he is averaging 22 fantasy points in just under 32 minutes per contest. He basically needs around 22 to reach value tonight, which as he has shown, he is more than capable of.

Indiana Pacers

Record: 36-33 — Home: 20-13 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pacers have lost five of their last ten games and are holding onto their playoff lives in the Eastern Conference. They are currently tied with the Bulls for the seventh seed, but the Wizards and Pistons are right behind them. The Pacers are projected to score 111.5 points tonight against the Sixers, which gives them the fifth highest team total and the second highest projected point differential on the board.

The Sixers are always an exploitable matchup, as they are ranked 24th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The main issue here is the potential blowout. The Pacers are going to need big minutes from their starters down the stretch of the regular season, so if the game gets out of hand, they may pull their starters a few minutes early.

Elite Plays

Paul George
paul-george-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,200 Salary:$8,600
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.11 FP/Min:1.21
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.5 36.0 0.5 35.9 0.4
FPPG (FD) 39.3 43.0 3.7 42.0 2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 25.4 26.5 1.1 27.0 1.7

George has been on a tear since the All-Star break. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 43 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest. He draws a great matchup tonight against the Sixers, who are ranked 28th against small forwards, 30th in rebounding differential, and 30th in blocked shots allowed per game. The upside is certainly there, but there is a good possibility that George plays less than his usual allotment of minutes.

Secondary Plays

Monta Ellis
monta-ellis-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,600 Salary:$6,300
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.81 FP/Min:0.86
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.5 36.4 1.9 36.1 1.6
FPPG (FD) 27.9 31.4 3.5 31.0 3.1
TO-Adj. Usage 18.1 18.1 0.0 15.7 -2.4

Ellis is one of those players that I rarely ever roster, unless there are injuries that open the door for more minutes and a higher usage rate. While I likely won’t be targeting him in cash games tonight, he does have massive upside against the Sixers. Ellis has been in great form over his last ten games, averaging 31.4 fantasy points in 36.4 minutes per contest.

George Hill
george-hill-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,500 Salary:$4,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.69 FP/Min:0.74
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.0 34.7 -0.3 33.7 -1.3
FPPG (FD) 24.2 23.2 -1.0 24.8 0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 14.3 13.8 -0.5 14.9 0.6

Hill had one of his best games of the season on Saturday, scoring 40 fantasy points against the Thunder. His ownership will likely be inflated thanks to that outing and the fact that he is facing the Sixers. While Hill is still in play for me on DraftKings ($4,800), he seems like a good fade on FanDuel. At $5,500, he basically needs 28 fantasy points to reach value. A feat that he has only accomplished one time in his last ten games.

San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM

San Antonio Spurs Charlotte Hornets
sanantonionba Vegas Total 199.0 charlottenba Vegas Total 199.0
Vegas Sprd -6.0 Vegas Sprd 6.0
Team Proj. 102.5 Team Proj. 96.5
Team Pace 96.20 Team Pace 97.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Courtney Lee Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opp. Season 12 14 20 23 10 Opp. Season 4 1 1 5 3
Last 3 Weeks 13 11 12 13 10 Last 3 Weeks 5 6 2 1 8

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 59-10 — Road: 24-10 — Last 10: 9-1

The Spurs have won nine of their last ten games and actually have a decent chance to win 70 games this season. Tonight they head to Charlotte in what should be a fun game to watch. The Spurs are listed as 6-point favorites with an implied team total of 102.5 points. While that total may not look low, they have the third lowest projected point differential at -2.1.

The Hornets have quietly been a top ten defensive team this season. They are ranked ninth in points allowed per game and eighth in defensive efficiency. While I’m not excited about the Spurs’ low team total, the spread is set at only six points. Assuming the game stays close, their starters should see a full complement of minutes.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard
kawhi-leonard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,700 Salary:$8,300
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.11 FP/Min:1.19
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.0 35.5 2.5 35.9 2.9
FPPG (FD) 36.7 40.9 4.2 40.0 3.3
TO-Adj. Usage 21.9 24.0 2.1 21.2 -0.7

Leonard is always in play for me when the spread of the game is below ten points. He does everything on the floor well and he provides a very high floor for a player at his price point. Leonard draws a favorable matchup against the Hornets and he comes into the game in good form, averaging 40.9 fantasy points in his last ten outings.

Secondary Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge
lamarcus-aldridge-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,900 Salary:$7,500
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.05 FP/Min:1.10
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.4 33.4 3.0 32.7 2.3
FPPG (FD) 32.1 40.3 8.2 37.9 5.8
TO-Adj. Usage 22.1 24.5 2.4 25.3 3.1

Aldrige picked up his play after the All-Star break and he hasn’t looked back since. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 40.3 fantasy points with a usage rate north of 25. He had a monster game against the Warriors and he should be able to back it up against a Hornets’ team that is ranked 23rd against power forwards. Randolph is expensive, but he is a borderline elite play in all league formats tonight.

Tim Duncan
tim-duncan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,500 Salary:$4,200
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.96 FP/Min:1.02
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.7 21.5 -3.2 20.4 -4.3
FPPG (FD) 23.8 20.9 -2.9 17.3 -6.5
TO-Adj. Usage 14.5 14.8 0.3 12.7 -1.8

Saturday was a perfect example of why we can’t trust the veterans from the Spurs. I was all in on Tony Parker and Tim Duncan against the Warriors and boy did I pay for it. Parker struggled mightily and Duncan only played eight minutes. Even though Duncan is the ultimate professional, he couldn’t have been happy playing only eight minutes. I wouldn’t be surprised if he plays 25+ minutes against the Hornets, making him an intriguing tournament play tonight.

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 39-30 — Home: 26-11 — Last 10: 8-2

The Hornets have won eight of their last ten games and continue to make their way up the Eastern Conference standings. They are currently tied with the Celtics and are currently only a game behind the Hawks and and Heat in the loss column. The Hornets draw a tough matchup tonight against the Spurs. They are only projected to score 96.5 points, which is 6.6 points below their scoring average.

The Spurs are the best defensive team in the NBA. They held the Warriors to 79 points on Saturday night – 79 points! As a general rule of thumb, I try to avoid targeting players against San Antonio. Not only are they ranked first or second in all of the defensive categories listed above, but they are also ranked fifth or better against all five positions in terms of fantasy points allowed.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM

Orlando Magic Boston Celtics
orlandonba Vegas Total 215.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 215.5
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 103.8 Team Proj. 111.8
Team Pace 97.90 Team Pace 101.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Brandon Jennings Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Dewayne Dedmon Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Evan Turner Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger
Opp. Season 1 9 22 26 27 Opp. Season 20 5 18 22 13
Last 3 Weeks 12 10 28 12 17 Last 3 Weeks 16 12 7 27 26

Orlando Magic

Record: 29-40 — Road: 11-23 — Last 10: 3-7

The Magic have lost seven of their last ten games and while they aren’t technically eliminated from the playoffs, they are close enough to it. Tonight they head to Boston to take on the Celtics in what should be a fast-paced game. The Magic are projected to score 103.8 points, which is right around the average of the 18 teams in action tonight.

The Celtics present a slightly below-average matchup for the Magic tonight. On the season, Boston is ranked 13th in points allowed per game and 12th in fantasy points allowed per game. Nikola Vucevic is technically listed as questionable, but he has missed the last eight games. Until we hear otherwise, we should consider him as doubtful. Elfrid Payton returned to the lineup last night, playing 17 minutes off the bench. For now, we should avoid all three Magic point guards.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Victor Oladipo
victor-oladipo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$7,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.91 FP/Min:0.97
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.7 37.3 4.6 37.3 4.6
FPPG (FD) 29.8 38.8 9.0 41.4 11.6
TO-Adj. Usage 19.8 21.1 1.3 22.2 2.4

It feels like the right night to employ an Oladipo fade. His price is elevated (especially on FanDuel) and he draws a difficult matchup against the Celtics. Boston is ranked ninth against shooting guards this season and Avery Bradley is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA. While all of this is true, we have seen Oladipo play well in tough matchups. Most of us faded him on Friday against the Cavaliers and he went off for 62 fantasy points.

Evan Fournier
evan-fournier-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$5,500
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.72 FP/Min:0.78
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.3 34.3 2.0 34.0 1.7
FPPG (FD) 23.2 25.8 2.6 24.3 1.1
TO-Adj. Usage 16.8 18.1 1.3 18.4 1.6

As mentioned above, the Celtics are very tough on opposing backcourts. This hurts the fantasy appeal of Brandon Jennings and Victor Oladipo, while it gives a small boost to Fournier. If I had to roster one Magic player tonight, it would be Fournier, who should see 35+ minutes in a slightly favorable matchup against Evan Turner.

Boston Celtics

Record: 40-30 — Home: 23-12 — Last 10: 5-5

The Celtics have lost five of their last ten games and would not be hosting a first round playoff series if the season ended today. They are currently in fifth place in the East, but are only a game behind the Hawks and Heat in the loss column. The Celtics are listed as 8-point favorites tonight against the Magic at home. They are projected to score 111.8 points, which gives them the fourth highest team total and the sixth highest projected point differential.

The Magic have been a neutral matchup for fantasy production this season. They are ranked between 15th and 20th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Jae Crowder says that he may be able to return before his expected timetable, but he will miss tonight’s game against Orlando. Evan Turner is projected to draw another start in his place.

Elite Plays

Isaiah Thomas
isaiah-thomas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$7,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.08 FP/Min:1.16
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.5 32.6 0.1 33.8 1.3
FPPG (FD) 35.2 37.1 1.9 35.6 0.4
TO-Adj. Usage 26.0 27.0 1.1 26.3 0.4

It’s nice to see Thomas’ price come down on FanDuel and go up on DraftKings. There was a while there when he was more than a thousand dollars cheaper on DraftKings. Thomas is in play on both sites tonight, as he actually sees the biggest usage boost when Jae Crowder is off the floor. His usage rate jumps all the way up to 31. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Magic, who are ranked 20th against point guards this season.

Evan Turner
evan-turner-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,500 Salary:$5,500
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.85 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.4 28.7 1.3 28.7 1.3
FPPG (FD) 23.2 24.8 1.5 23.8 0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 16.2 16.0 -0.3 14.9 -1.3

In six starts this season, Turner is averaging 35 minutes, 14.7 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.7 blocks/steals. That equates to just under 30 fantasy points per start. As long as he is in the starting lineup again tonight, he can be considered an elite play against the Magic, who are ranked 18th against small forwards this season.

Secondary Plays

Jared Sullinger
jared-sullinger-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,100 Salary:$5,500
Position:PF Position:C
FP/Min:1.10 FP/Min:1.16
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.2 26.5 2.3 26.8 2.6
FPPG (FD) 26.7 29.7 3.0 30.3 3.6
TO-Adj. Usage 18.9 20.1 1.2 21.0 2.1

With Jae Crowder off the floor this season, Sullinger has a usage rate of 19 while averaging 1.08 FP/min. While that seems like a boost, both numbers are actually slightly lower than his season averages. With Kelly Olynyk back in the lineup, Sullinger’s minutes are not as secure. I still like the upside that he offers, but he is a better target for GPPs than he is for cash games.

Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM

Milwaukee Bucks Detroit Pistons
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 205.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Sprd 7.5 Vegas Sprd -7.5
Team Proj. 99.0 Team Proj. 106.5
Team Pace 96.70 Team Pace 97.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jerryd Bayless Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Tobias Harris Marcus Morris Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 11 7 4 14 9 Opp. Season 7 25 24 18 22
Last 3 Weeks 9 2 22 26 24 Last 3 Weeks 3 17 19 5 30

Record: 30-40 — Road: 9-26 — Last 10: 5-5

The Bucks have won five of their last ten games, but are a little too late in making their push for the playoffs. Tonight they head to Detroit to take on the Pistons in what is a tougher matchup than most people realize. The Bucks are only projected to score 99 points, which gives them the third lowest team total and the seventh lowest projected point differential.

The Pistons have been a stout team defensively, ranking 12th in points allowed per game, fourth in rebounding differential, and seventh in fantasy points allowed per game. Even though the matchup isn’t great, there is one option that still stands out tonight. Khris Middleton and Jabari Parker are intriguing tournament plays, but there are better options at their respective positions for cash games.

Elite Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo
giannis-antetokounmpo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,200 Salary:$9,800
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.04
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.2 36.5 1.3 34.4 -0.8
FPPG (FD) 34.3 47.4 13.1 45.6 11.3
TO-Adj. Usage 18.6 22.9 4.3 22.1 3.5

It’s hard to explain what has led to this turnaround from Giannis in the second half of the season. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 47.4 fantasy points, which is more than LeBron James during that stretch. He had a quiet outing against the Jazz yesterday, but that doesn’t come as a surprise. Utah boasts one of the best defenses in the entire NBA. That one poor outing could help lower his ownership tonight against the Pistons, who are ranked 22nd against small forwards over the last three weeks.

Secondary Plays

NONE

Detroit Pistons

Record: 36-34 — Home: 21-12 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pistons have lost five of their last ten games and are currently in ninth place in the Eastern Conference standings. They need a strong finish to their season if they are going to make the playoffs. Tonight they take on the Bucks in Milwaukee. The Pistons are projected to score 106.5 points, which is the eighth highest team total on the board and 4.2 points above their scoring average.

The Bucks have been an exploitable matchup this season. They are ranked 20th or worse in defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. We can give a small boost to the Pistons’ offense as a whole. Reggie Jackson may garner some attention tonight, but the Bucks have really been tough on point guards this season. They are ranked seventh against the position overall and third against the position over the last three weeks.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond
andre-drummond-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$7,600
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.19 FP/Min:1.28
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.1 30.0 -3.1 30.6 -2.5
FPPG (FD) 39.4 33.6 -5.7 32.8 -6.6
TO-Adj. Usage 20.3 19.2 -1.2 18.5 -1.8

Drummond has been slumping over the last month of play. In his last ten games, he is only averaging 33.6 fantasy points, which is 5.7 below his season average. Luckily, that has led to a suppressed price and tonight may be the perfect time to buy low on Drummond. In his last two games against the Bucks he has scored 54 and 49 fantasy points, grabbing a combined 40 rebounds. On the season, the Bucks are ranked 22nd against centers and 21st in rebounding differential.

Secondary Plays

Tobias Harris
tobias-harris-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,100 Salary:$6,200
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.82 FP/Min:0.88
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.9 33.6 0.7 29.8 -3.1
FPPG (FD) 27.0 28.3 1.3 26.1 -0.9
TO-Adj. Usage 16.6 18.2 1.6 19.5 2.9

We always like to target wings against the Bucks, but it has been tough to predict which of the Pistons’ wing players will go off each night. Harris comes into this game in solid form, averaging 28.3 fantasy points over his last ten games. Harris isn’t a bad play tonight, but he doesn’t leap off the page as a must start.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
kentavious-caldwell-pope-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$5,800
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.66 FP/Min:0.70
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.7 37.4 0.7 37.1 0.4
FPPG (FD) 24.1 26.9 2.8 30.6 6.5
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 17.8 1.7 19.7 3.7

You down with KCP? Yeah, you know me. Caldwell-Pope has been terrific over his last five games, averaging 30.6 fantasy points in 37.1 minutes per contest. His usage has also gone up during that stretch, which is promising. I went back and forth on whether or not to list him as an elite play. In the end, I decided that he was closer to a secondary play. He is still the same KCP and he seems a little too expensive tonight.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious