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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, February 11th

by Chirag Hira (INSPYR) Last Updated 2017-02-12 02:23:34

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Los Angeles Clippers at Charlotte Hornets – 5:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers Charlotte Hornets
Article Image Vegas Total 216.5 Article Image Vegas Total 216.5
Vegas Spread 2.5 Vegas Spread -2.5
Team Total 107.0 Team Total 109.5
Pace +/- 0.3 Pace +/- 0.0
Proj. Starter Austin Rivers J.J. Redick Raymond Felton Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Frank Kaminsky
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 16 24 24 8 25 Adj. DvP 17 5 26 20 20
DRPM -0.68 -0.15 2.14 0.36 -0.25 DRPM -2.24 -1.79 -0.83 0.86 2.34

Los Angeles Clippers

Welcome to the Saturday edition of the Grind Down. It’s going to be a crazy slate and I’m really looking forward to just being a fan of the game and watching some great basketball. We tip things off early in Charlotte, with the Clippers traveling to play the Hornets. Los Angeles is coming off a solid victory over the Knicks, but that franchise just continues to take L’s on and off the court. Blake Griffin continued his dominance, scoring 50 or more DraftKings fantasy points for the fourth time in his last five games. Griffin’s salary continues to be under $10k, so we still have some potential profit here. With his salary basically matching his expected production, Griffin should be considered an elite cash game play. DeAndre Jordan finally broke out of his prolonged slump as well and scored over 20 actual points for only the second time in his last 10 games. DJ will be a strong play if Frank Kaminsky, starts but he lacks a solid offensive repertoire, making him more suited for tournaments.

Austin Rivers has started every game that Chris Paul has missed and has played over 30 minutes in all but two of them. His salary also matches his expected production, and Kemba Walker isn’t exactly an elite defender. Rivers is a solid cash game play due to the minutes, but I would not consider him an elite upside play with Griffin in the lineup. J.J. Redick is also a viable option since his salary remains under $5k. Jamal Crawford has found himself over the last 10 games, averaging 25.55 FanDuel points. He’s shown some real nice consistency to his game and even flashed some upside. He’s a tad bit more expensive than Redick but seems a bit more trustworthy. Raymond Felton should only be considered a tournament option if he starts. The minutes are not secure for him off the bench.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Austin Rivers $5,700 $5,300 0.68 28.0 8.0 19.2 1.4 20.6% -1.3% 16 -0.68
J.J. Redick $4,700 $4,700 0.71 28.5 2.8 20.3 -2.9 21.2% -3.2% 24 -0.15
Raymond Felton $4,600 $4,800 0.73 22.7 4.6 16.5 4.6 18.5% -1.9% 24 2.14
Blake Griffin $9,700 $9,500 1.21 33.4 3.1 40.4 8.1 30.1% 0.8% 8 0.36
DeAndre Jordan $7,700 $7,100 1.06 31.4 -2.5 33.4 1.3 14.7% 2.5% 25 -0.25
Jamal Crawford $5,100 $5,200 0.70 26.9 2.9 18.8 11.0 23.5% 2.3% 24 N/A

Elite Plays – Blake Griffin, Jamal Crawford

Secondary Plays – DeAndre Jordan, Austin Rivers

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets will continue their home stand against the Clippers today. The Hornets have ruled out Cody Zeller after he was only able to play 22 minutes against the Rockets on Thursday. With Zeller out of the lineup, we can expect Frank Kaminsky to start. Marvin Williams will have to deal with Blake Griffin today and will likely be a low-end option. Frank Kamsinky doesn’t have the strength to bang with DeAndre Jordan inside, but DJ will have trouble covering him out to the three-point line. Kemba Walker has been really slumping over the last five games, and his salary continues to drop. He’s been known as a better player at home than on the road and looks like a lock for 35 minutes again tonight. If you’re playing the early slate, Walker looks like the perfect GPP play since the Hornets are expected to score 4.5 points more than their season average.

Nicolas Batum has scored over 40 fantasy points in consecutive games, but it was also in ideal matchups against the Nets and Rockets. It’s been rare this season when both Batum and Walker have had huge games, but Batum does have the ability to pick up the peripherals, making him a high-floor play. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has also played well for consecutive games, but his lack of offensive polish simply make him a GPP option. Miles Plumlee is becoming a part of the rotation, but he’s a low-end play unless with Cody Zeller out. Frank Kaminsky could get into foul trouble, opening the door for an increase in playing time for Plumlee. Since we can’t project foul trouble, it’ll be tough to trust Plumlee today. There is a chance that Plumlee starts since he matches up better with Jordan. Still, I’m not the coach and can’t lock Plumlee in without an update.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $7,300 $7,500 1.06 33.9 1.3 36.1 -9.6 30.4% -1.5% 17 -2.24
Nicolas Batum $7,500 $7,700 0.96 34.6 0.8 33.1 0.6 23.6% -0.9% 5 -1.79
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $5,600 $5,200 0.78 29.5 1.1 23.1 2.8 14.4% -1.0% 26 -0.83
Marvin Williams $5,400 $4,900 0.77 28.0 7.3 21.6 8.4 17.1% -2.2% 20 0.86
Frank Kaminsky $4,800 $4,600 0.81 24.3 4.1 19.8 3.9 21.0% 2.3% 20 2.34
Marco Belinelli $4,000 $3,600 0.70 24.6 -1.0 17.3 -0.3 18.9% 5.0% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker (GPP), Nicolas Batum

Secondary Plays – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (GPP), Frank Kamsinky

Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks Indiana Pacers
Article Image Vegas Total 213.0 Article Image Vegas Total 213.0
Vegas Spread 6.5 Vegas Spread -6.5
Team Total 103.3 Team Total 109.8
Pace +/- 0.8 Pace +/- -1.0
Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Matthew Dellavedova Tony Snell Thon Maker John Henson Proj. Starter Jeff Teague C.J. Miles Paul George Lavoy Allen Myles Turner
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 13 10 13 17 15 Adj. DvP 2 27 25 23 26
DRPM -0.03 -0.33 0.22 -0.54 2.80 DRPM 2.24 -1.58 -0.85 0.21 2.00

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks travel to Indiana after losing to the Lakers last night at home. They were down huge and made a comeback, but a career-high 41 actual points was not enough from Giannis Antetokounmpo to bring the Bucks all the way back. The Greek Freak has scored over 60 fantasy points in two of his last three games and should be considered a high-floor option. He’s coming off a game where he played over 41 minutes, so there is some potential risk here. With Paul George likely to defend him for most of the game, I’d avoid him on FanDuel due to his salary sitting over $11k. Thon Maker started in place of Jabari Parker and played 17 minutes. While he put up a serviceable line, we’ll need him to not foul so much if he wants to exceed value. He’s still a young player so it’s understandable, but he’s not a viable option for cash games and lacks truly elite upside. He’ll need to pick up some defensive stats to really exceed value.

Jason Kidd loves screwing us so Greg Monroe and John Henson are too risky to play. Spencer Hawes was active last night but did not get in the game. He might play today and as we saw last night, the Pacers are susceptible inside. Still, I can’t truly trust any of these players. Malcolm Brogdon is once again ahead of Matthew Dellavedova in the rotation and played 27 minutes last night. He’ll be a viable low-end option as long as he’s coming off the bench. He’ll likely get some garbage time run if this game gets out of hand, but it’s too hard to accurately predict a blowout since both teams played last night. BEAZUS (Michael Beasley) got the job done against the Lakers but only played 24 minutes. In fact, Beazus has only played over 30 minutes once this entire season, but with Jabari Parker out of the lineup, he could start seeing an uptick in minutes and production.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Giannis Antetokounmpo $11,200 $10,500 1.31 35.2 -0.2 46.2 -1.1 29.4% 0.5% 13 -0.03
Matthew Dellavedova $4,200 $3,800 0.68 26.4 -3.6 17.9 -2.2 19.6% -1.5% 10 -0.33
Tony Snell $4,000 $3,100 0.51 28.7 -2.8 14.6 -6.8 11.2% 0.9% 13 0.22
Thon Maker $3,500 $3,000 0.96 5.7 -1.9 5.5 -2.0 17.1% 4.8% 17 -0.54
John Henson $3,900 $4,100 0.87 20.3 6.8 17.6 8.0 16.0% 1.6% 15 2.80
Greg Monroe $5,800 $4,900 1.13 21.3 -3.0 24.1 -5.1 23.5% -5.4% 15 N/A
Khris Middleton $4,400 $3,800 0.83 14.9 0.0 12.4 0.0 19.5% 0.0% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo (cash)

Secondary Plays – Michael Beasley

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers host the Bucks after losing last night in Washington. This will be their third game in four nights, but the same can be said for the Bucks. Paul George has been carrying the Pacers, and he’s scored over 40 fantasy points in three straight games. He leads them with a true usage rate of 27.6 percent but will likely have to deal with Giannis Antetokounmpo all night long. Antetokounmpo owns a DPRM of 2.24 on the season and should be able to keep PG13 from hitting 50 fantasy points. Jeff Teague went back to his volatile ways against the Wizards and will likely be pestered by Matthew Dellevadova for most of the game. His minutes are secure over 30, but he’s shot under 40 percent in three of his last four games. Considering Teague has a 26.7 percent true usage rate and the Pacers are expected to score over their season average and have the fifth-highest implied total, their point guard deserves some GPP consideration.

Myles Turner has not performed at an elite level over six games, and he lacks truly elite upside unless he plays 35+ minutes. C.J. Miles went back to playing poorly last night and he’ll simply be a low-end GPP option against the Bucks. Lavoy Allen will continue to start, but he has not played over 24 minutes in consecutive games. I’ve never been fan of his and he’ll need to play 30+ minutes to really exceed value. Kevin Seraphin played more minutes than Lavoy Allen last night, but it’s to tough trust either player. Monta Ellis looks like he is back in the rotation with his minutes steadily increasing over the last five games. I don’t see a ton of upside in Ellis, but he should be on your radar on DraftKings since he is only $3.2k.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $7,700 $7,300 1.05 32.7 0.8 34.2 1.5 26.7% 1.4% 2 2.24
C.J. Miles $4,200 $4,100 0.73 23.0 4.2 16.8 3.2 17.5% -0.7% 27 -1.58
Paul George $8,700 $8,100 1.02 35.6 -1.2 36.1 1.4 27.6% 0.5% 25 -0.85
Lavoy Allen $3,800 $3,800 0.57 13.7 14.9 7.8 14.6 10.8% 4.7% 23 0.21
Myles Turner $6,400 $5,800 0.99 30.7 5.1 30.4 -3.4 19.3% -2.3% 26 2.00
Monta Ellis $3,600 $3,200 0.63 26.8 -3.4 16.8 -1.0 16.9% -2.6% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Paul George, Jeff Teague

Secondary Plays – C.J. Miles, Kevin Seraphin

Denver Nuggets at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:30 PM ET

Denver Nuggets Cleveland Cavaliers
Article Image Vegas Total 230.0 Article Image Vegas Total 230.0
Vegas Spread 12.0 Vegas Spread -12.0
Team Total 109.0 Team Total 121.0
Pace +/- 0.5 Pace +/- 1.9
Proj. Starter Jameer Nelson Gary Harris Will Barton Wilson Chandler Nikola Jokic Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving DeAndre Liggins LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 27 17 28 11 7 Adj. DvP 29 29 14 16 16
DRPM -1.16 1.06 0.65 1.60 2.33 DRPM -1.20 -1.44 -0.86 -1.39 0.81

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets travel to Cleveland after dropping 131 points on the Knicks last night. The Joker (Nikola Jokic) scored a career-high 40 actual points and didn’t even have his best fantasy output of the season. Simply put, this man is a BEAST! The Joker has played over 32 minutes in five of his last seven games and the only thing that can stop him is the referees. With the Nuggets still expected to score around their season average, the large potential spread should not scare you away entirely. Still, since they are large underdogs, Jokic is likely best suited for GPPs. Emmanuel Mudiay and Kenneth Faried continue to be out and Darrell Arthur got the start in place of Faried. Arthur played 21 minutes and was able to do his usual 20 fantasy points. He’ll likely start again and does have some solid profit potential with his salary still sitting at $3.5k on DraftKings. He’s $4.3k on FanDuel, so there is likely more risk than reward here. Will Barton came off the bench but still played 34 minutes last night. He’s been steadily crushing it with Danilo Gallinari out and will continue to be a high-floor play. With his salary sitting over $6k on both major sites, his upside could be slightly limited.

Gary Harris has seen 34 minutes for three straight games and if he continues to be so cheap, he should be looked at as an elite play. The Cavs will likely be without Iman Shumpert again and could start DeAndre Liggins at SG. Liggins is a better on-ball defender than he is chasing players around, meaning Harris should be able to make value tonight. As I mentioned in my CourtIQ article yesterday, I saw Jameer Nelson as being an elite play at his salary and he almost returned 10x. Nelson has played over 30 minutes in three straight games but is simply a high-floor play against the Cavs tonight since he’s only $4.4k on both sites. Jamal Murray is the strong GPP play and he likely will have next to no ownership after he played 14 minutes last night. While Murray does carry considerable risk, if we can get him for 30 minutes he should be able to score over 30 fantasy points. Juan Hernanomez has also been a solid part of the rotation over the last seven games but has played over 20 minutes just once. Wilson Chandler is dealing with an illness and is probable but his salary is now over $7k on DraftKings, making it hard to just plug him in like we have over the last week. SFs have been scoring well against LeBron James and the Cavs but I don’t see the elite upside here, simply the high floor due to minutes being a lock over 34.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jameer Nelson $4,400 $4,400 0.70 25.6 2.8 17.9 -2.9 19.7% -3.7% 27 -1.16
Gary Harris $5,100 $5,000 0.78 28.0 4.1 21.9 1.6 19.9% 0.0% 17 1.06
Will Barton $5,800 $6,300 0.87 28.6 4.7 24.8 11.8 22.1% 2.9% 28 0.65
Wilson Chandler $6,700 $7,200 0.90 30.7 3.4 27.6 0.1 22.7% -1.5% 11 1.60
Nikola Jokic $9,900 $9,000 1.26 26.1 -1.4 33.0 -5.6 24.4% 2.1% 7 2.33
Darrell Arthur $4,300 $3,500 0.81 16.0 5.1 12.9 5.5 18.3% 2.1% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Nikola Jokic (GPP), Wilson Chandler (cash), Will Barton, Gary Harris

Secondary Plays – Jamal Murray (GPP), Jameer Nelson (cash)

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs return home after a four-game road trip and on the heels of a loss to the Thunder. There was some speculation that the “Big 3” were going to be rested on Thursday but LeBron James ended up playing 41 minutes. It would not shock me to see the Cavs magically rest players against the Nuggets tonight. Still, we have to proceed as if they are playing since there is nothing from the team regarding rest. LeBron James is going to play a ton of minutes but outside of that huge game in overtime against the Wizards, rarely exceeds 6x on FanDuel. He’ll continue to be a strong cash game play since the Cavs are expected to score 10 points over their season average. We’ve been targeting PGs against the Nuggets all season long and it should not stop here. Kyrie Irving is considered a strong play but does not his elevated salary levels make you question it a bit. He’s only scored over 50 DraftKings points once in his last eight starts. Still, he’s my favorite play from the Cavaliers tonight. Kevin Love dominated the Wizards and Knicks last week but went back to his boring ways in the remaining two games of the road trip. He’s also a high-floor option and is cheaper than Irving and James.

Tristan Thompson has played heavy minutes compared to his season average over the last five but the Nuggets are the top rebounding team in the association, making him a risky play. He could still hit his salary-based expectations, but the upside is truly lacking. Kyle Korver is not a lock to play 30 minute and Iman Shumpert is being listed as questionable. Some outlets have him hopeful to play and some have him out. DeAndre Liggins is also questionable and Jordan McRae started their last game. We’ll just have to wait for an official update from the team before proceeding on any shooting guards from Cleveland. Derrick Williams played 21 minutes against the Thunder and is simply a garbage time player. He’ll only be viable if James sits.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $8,400 1.05 35.2 2.4 37.1 -1.6 31.4% 1.2% 29 -1.20
DeAndre Liggins $3,000 0.53 14.4 -5.8 7.6 0.2 11.6% 1.4% 29 -1.44
LeBron James $10,200 1.27 37.7 2.7 48.0 3.2 32.8% -3.3% 14 -0.86
Kevin Love $8,200 1.15 31.8 3.9 36.4 5.3 25.6% -3.2% 16 -1.39
Tristan Thompson $4,900 0.79 29.7 6.7 23.4 4.3 10.9% -0.2% 16 0.81
Kyle Korver $4,200 0.61 27.0 0.3 16.6 3.7 14.7% 2.2% N/A

Elite Plays -Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love (cash)

Secondary Plays – LeBron James (cash) p.

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:30 PM ET

Miami Heat Philadelphia 76ers
Article Image Vegas Total 206.0 Article Image Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Spread -3.5 Vegas Spread 3.5
Team Total 104.8 Team Total 101.3
Pace +/- 1.4 Pace +/- -1.3
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Wayne Ellington Rodney McGruder Luke Babbitt Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Gerald Henderson Robert Covington Ersan Ilyasova Jahlil Okafor
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 11 23 17 6 30 Adj. DvP 3 4 11 7 11
DRPM 0.04 -1.85 3.54 0.51 -0.99 DRPM -2.20 -1.19 -0.98 1.50 1.93

Miami Heat

The Heat have won 13 straight games and are one game out of a spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They’ll travel to Philly tonight and are listing Dion Waiters as questionable. The availability of Waiters really changes the entire outlook of this team. With him in the lineup, they don’t really have a ton of upside. Hassan Whiteside crushed the Sixers last Saturday and was only used for 25 minutes last night. This game environment suits him better, but it’s really concerning to see that he’s not a lock for 32 minutes. Whiteside has only played 32+ minutes in three of his last 11 starts. Goran Dragic has come back to earth a little now that Tyler Johnson has been back in the rotation. He’ll be a high-floor play against the Sixers, but there are better ways to spend your funds if Waiters plays.

James Johnson continues to be an elite fantasy option, and he’ll be a high-floor play regardless of Waiters’ status. He’ll likely score fewer actual points if Waiters plays, limiting his upside. Tyler Johnson played 36 minutes against the Nets last night and should also be considered a high-floor play. He’ll be an elite option at these prices if Waiters is out. The biggest beneficiary of Waiters being out has been Rodney McGruder. He’s still under $4k on both sites and should be a high-floor option if Waiters is out. I’m slightly concerned about his upside if he has to match up with Robert Covington. Wayne Ellington is also worth a look if Waiters is out and should be avoided if Waiters plays. Considering Philadelphia is originally where Waiters is from, I’m expecting him to play. He’s scored over 30 fantasy points both times he’s played them this season but is a low-upside play at these elevated salary levels.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $8,100 $7,900 0.99 34.2 -1.9 33.7 2.6 28.9% -1.3% 11 0.04
Wayne Ellington $3,700 $4,200 0.63 26.5 -6.5 16.8 -3.3 17.3% 2.0% 23 -1.85
Rodney McGruder $3,800 $3,900 0.52 26.1 3.8 13.5 3.7 12.3% 1.3% 17 3.54
Luke Babbitt $3,500 $3,000 0.52 16.0 3.1 8.4 -3.1 13.3% 1.0% 6 0.51
Hassan Whiteside $9,100 $8,500 1.17 33.0 -0.8 38.5 7.5 21.5% 2.9% 30 -0.99
James Johnson $6,000 $6,100 0.92 26.1 -1.1 24.1 2.5 22.7% 2.4% 6 N/A
Tyler Johnson $5,600 $5,500 0.87 30.5 -2.7 26.4 -2.9 21.9% -0.3% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Hassan Whiteside (if Waiters is out), Tyler Johnson (if Waiters is out)

Secondary Plays – Rodney McGruder (if Waiters is out)

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers return home and have a chance to raise the cat against the Miami Heat. They’ll continue to be without Joel Embiid, and Jahlil Okafor is expected to start once again. Okafor has yet to play over 26 minutes in his last six starts and has only truly crushed it in one game, in a game against (go figure) the Spurs. He was aided by 11 free throw attempts, though, and will likely not be hacked that much tonight. Okafor is a viable option, but he could get into foul trouble against Hassan Whiteside. The homie, Dario Saric had his best fantasy game of the season against the Magic on Thursday, but he has only played 30 minutes once in the last seven games. He started that game, so it makes sense that he got the extended run. Robert Covington was out of the lineup for that game, and it came against these same Heat. Saric is a viable GPP option, but keep your expectations in check with Covington a lock for 30+ minutes.

RoCo has played over 35 minutes in consecutive games and should be considered a high-floor play against the Heat. He is shooting a terrible 37.6 percent from the field on the season but does pick up the peripherals. He’s also flashed 50-fantasy-point upside this season, so the appeal is there for GPPs. T.J. McConnell looks like a lock for 30 minutes but is more of a cash game play than elite GPP play at these salary levels. He’s slightly cheaper on DK than he is on FD, making his potential profit a little bit higher. Nerlens Noel also played well against the Magic but only saw 22 minutes. The lack of minutes make Noel too risky to trust on a full slate. Nik Stauskas continues to play well off the bench, which keeps Gerald Henderson minutes down. The Sauce is a viable play on DraftKings since he is only $3.6k. He’s $4k on FanDuel and only put up 21.5 FDFP in his last game, making him slightly risky due to the minutes being a little more volatile off the bench. Ersan Ilyasova has been in a minor slump and is dealing with a hip injury. Ghostface Ilya has not played 30 minutes in four consecutive starts.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $5,400 $5,000 0.80 24.5 4.2 19.7 5.3 19.3% 0.1% 3 -2.20
Gerald Henderson $3,500 $3,200 0.67 23.8 -3.3 15.9 -6.5 17.6% 1.7% 4 -1.19
Robert Covington $6,300 $5,900 0.79 31.1 3.0 24.5 2.6 17.9% 0.5% 11 -0.98
Ersan Ilyasova $5,600 $5,500 0.90 27.4 -2.5 24.6 -7.1 22.6% 1.7% 7 1.50
Jahlil Okafor $4,600 $4,500 0.87 23.2 1.1 20.2 1.1 22.4% 1.6% 11 1.93

Elite Plays – Robert Covington

Secondary Plays – T.J. McConnell, Dario Saric, Nik Stauskas

Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:30 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Oklahoma City Thunder
Article Image Vegas Total 227.0 Article Image Vegas Total 227.0
Vegas Spread -6.5 Vegas Spread 6.5
Team Total 116.8 Team Total 110.3
Pace +/- 1.7 Pace +/- 4.1
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green JaVale McGee Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 22 7 27 15 8 Adj. DvP 6 12 7 21 17
DRPM -0.07 1.09 2.03 1.23 2.15 DRPM 0.04 -0.97 1.97 4.48 1.33

Golden State Warriors

Welcome to the game of the day! I can’t wait to see how the Oklahoma City crowd reacts to Kevin Durant every time he touches the ball. Kevin Durant has ROASTED the Thunder this season, putting up 40 and 39 actual points against them in two previous meetings. Cash games start with Kevin Durant for me. With the game expected to be close, Durant should be considered an elite option in all formats. Stephen Curry has cooled off a bit this week since his crazy run last week, but he’ll remain a high-floor option against the Thunder tonight. He’s torched them in the past and always has the GPP upside we look for.

Draymond Green was the first player ever to record a triple-double without scoring 10 actual points last night. Expect him to have a healthy amount of ownership but we can’t expect him to grab 10 steals again. His salary is only $7.5k on DraftKings, so he’s a strong play over there. He’s $8k on FanDuel and is considered a high-floor play since he’s averaged 37.9 FanDuel points in the three games before his jaw-dropping triple-double. Klay Thompson has also been known to light the Thunder up, but he’s a scoring-dependent guard who will likely spend most of his energy guarding Russell Westbrook. Andre Iguodala scored over 30 fantasy points for the first time all season, so don’t expect that to continue again tonight. He’s been solid with David West and Zaza Pachulia out but rarely exceeds 6x. JaVale McGee continues to start with Pachulia out but has yet to play over 20 minutes in five consecutive starts. While he can randomly get you 20 fantasy points, the risk is far greater than the reward against Steven Adams.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $9,500 $9,600 1.22 33.6 2.2 40.8 2.8 30.1% -1.8% 22 -0.07
Klay Thompson $6,800 $6,500 0.88 34.2 0.6 30.0 3.1 24.0% 3.7% 7 1.09
Kevin Durant $10,300 $9,700 1.36 34.4 2.3 46.6 -1.7 27.9% -4.7% 27 2.03
Draymond Green $8,000 $7,500 1.08 33.3 4.0 36.1 2.5 19.0% 2.2% 15 1.23
JaVale McGee $3,600 $3,500 1.20 8.9 5.8 10.6 7.0 22.6% -3.4% 8 2.15
Andre Iguodala $4,200 $3,800 0.68 25.7 3.2 17.5 0.8 11.8% -0.3% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson

Secondary Plays – Draymond Green, Stephen Curry

Oklahoma City Thunder

What are the chances that Russell Westbrook gets a triple-double tonight? I’d have to venture out and say it’s pretty much 100 percent. While I’m a huge James Harden fan, this game is the one where you’ll likely need to pick Westbrook over Harden. While Klay Thompson is “considered” an elite two-way player, no one on this planet can stop Russell Westbrook. Lock in the fact it’s a home game against the Warriors, and we can expect Beastbrook to dominate today. He leads the league in usage and is a lock to play 35+ minutes. Steven Adams has quietly put it together with Enes Kanter out of the lineup. I expected him to be a lock for 30+ minutes with Kanter out, but Adams is averaging over 38 minutes in his last four games. He’s still relatively affordable and should be considered an elite stack with Westbrook.

Victor Oladipo has also played heavy minutes in the last four games and looks like a lock to play 36 minutes tonight. He’ll also be considered an elite option and could easily exceed value if the Warriors decide to use Klay Thompson on Russell Westbrook. Andre Roberson has also played over 35 minutes in his last three games, but his lack of offensive game makes it too tough to trust in cash games. While he can exceed value, the lack of consistent offensive game makes him extremely volatile, and even though he played 41 minutes against the Cavs, he barely scored over 22 fantasy points. Joffrey Lauvergne has also seen his minutes spike over the last four games, and he’s a minimum priced option on FanDuel and only $3.2k on DK.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $12,500 $12,600 1.65 34.7 1.2 57.4 2.6 45.7% 2.1% 6 0.04
Victor Oladipo $6,400 $6,300 0.81 33.9 3.0 27.4 10.6 21.2% 3.4% 12 -0.97
Andre Roberson $4,200 $3,900 0.59 30.8 6.7 18.0 11.7 10.5% 0.7% 7 1.97
Domantas Sabonis $3,500 $3,000 0.58 21.5 0.2 12.4 -3.6 14.8% -2.9% 21 4.48
Steven Adams $6,300 $6,000 0.84 31.0 7.0 26.1 4.9 16.6% 2.3% 17 1.33

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Victor Oladipo, Steven Adams

Secondary Plays – Andre Roberson

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About the Author

INSPYR
Chirag Hira (INSPYR)

Chirag Hira, DFS alias “INSPYR”, has been playing fantasy basketball since 2001. He picked up DFS during the 2015 playoffs and has never looked back. In charge of DFS Alerts for the NBA, Chirag takes it as a daily challenge to break news before anyone else in the industry. He graduated with a degree in sports journalism and his career highlights include interviewing Kobe Bryant and Joe Torre. You can find Chirag on Twitter at C_Hira24.