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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 30th

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2016-02-02 15:12:01

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Golden State at Philadelphia – 05:00 PM

Golden State Philadelphia
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 217 philadelphianba Vegas Total 217
Vegas Sprd -17.0 Vegas Sprd 17.0
Team Proj. 117.3 Team Proj. 100.3
Team Pace 101.65 Team Pace 99.68
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut Proj Starter Ish Smith Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor
Opp. Season 21 18 28 28 29 Opp. Season 16 6 14 14 18
Opp. Last 7 29 16 16 9 29 Opp. Last 7 1 5 29 5 15

Golden State

Record: 42-4 — Road: 20-4 — Last 10: 8-2

Talk about mismatches. The Warriors head to Philly and should roll against the 76ers as they are 17 point favorites. The primary concern when targeting the Warriors this year is the blowout risk, and that risk certainly looms large today.

As evidenced by their record, the 76ers are a bad defensive unit. Meanwhile, the Warriors are the top offense in the league, by a wide mark. The matchups for the Warriors are elite across the board but the problem here is that the Warriors’ bench could do plenty of damage, and there’s a good chance the Warriors’ starters find themselves on the bench for the 4th quarter. In extreme blowouts like this, the Warriors have also utilized their entire roster so even some of their bench players haven’t topped 20 minutes in some of these situations (see the recent Spurs blowout).

In particular, the Warriors have seemed to be monitoring Draymond Green minutes as he’s played under 30 minutes in four of his past seven games. Given his elevated price and the likely blowout, this is a spot where I’ll likely be staying away. In terms of the Warriors’ bench, Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala haven’t seen a big minutes spike in recent blowouts. I’d continue to expect Livingston’s 16 to 18 minutes, and Iguodala’s 24 minutes or so. I could see both potentially reaching 20 fantasy points or so, but there’s not a ton of upside. Harrison Barnes is similar to Iguodala and Livinston in that there’s not a ton of upside, but he’s a guy you can take a look at in the early only slate. I’m not playing the early only two game slate, but if you are, then you’ll likely have to take a shot with a couple of these Warriors. However, in terms of the All-Day Slate and slate as a whole, I view them as tournament only options due to the large Vegas spread.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Stephen Curry

Curry leads the league in most 4th quarters he’s sat out this season, and this certainly looks like another 4th quarter that he’ll spend on the bench. For that reason, I’m not looking to pay his price in cash games as he’ll likely see just 28 to 30 minutes. However, this matchup is elite and he’s certainly capable of dropping 55 fantasy points in three quarters, which leaves him in play for tournaments in all day slate. He’s an elite option on the early only slate as there’s not a lot of places to spend up at.

FD — $11,100— PG
DK — $10,600– PG
Min/Game —Season: 31.8 | Last Five Games: 33.8
FP/Game — Season: 47.4

Klay Thompson

He’s in the same exact boat as Curry in that the minutes are a concern here, but he can get hot very quick and pour in 40 real life points in three quarters. Outside of his big game against Dallas in his last outing, he’s been quiet recently and coupled with the high blowout potential, he’s a tournament only option.

FD — $7,000— SG
DK — $7,300– SG
Min/Game —Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 30.0

Mareese Speights

It’s always risky forecasting Speights’ minutes, even in a blowout, as you could be left with him playing under 10 minutes. However, I like him as a tournament dice roll. Festus Ezeli is out, and with the blowout factor looming, I wouldn’t expect the Warriors to overextend Andrew Bogut or Draymond Green. He played 19 minutes in the blowout against the Spurs, and has averaged a fantasy point per minute this season.

FD — $3,700— PF
DK — $3,300– C
Min/Game —Season: 10.7 | Last Five Games: 10.2
FP/Game — Season: 10.7
FP/Game — Season: 29.7

Philadelphia

Record: 7-40 — Home: 4-17 — Last 10: 3-7

The 76ers have played better recently, but their recent play won’t cut it against the Warriors. They do have a team total of 100 points, but you have to wonder whether their starters will be on the court in the 4th quarter.

In terms of defensive efficiency, the Warriors are a top defensive unit, but due to their pace they do give up points. I’m not a big fan of targeting teams that are 17 point underdogs, and Jahlil Okafor is expected to return, which hurts Nerlens Noel. The PF position is thin in the early only slate so he’s in play on a two game slate. However, he’s not a guy I’d look at in an All Day Slate as the matchup is tough with Draymond Green, and Jahlil’s presence does hurt his production. Even in the smaller early slate, I’d lean towards Jonas Valunciunas or Andre Drummond at center over Jahlil.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Ish Smith

At his current price, Ish would need 35 fantasy points, and that is a mark he’s failed to reach in three of his past four. Given the blowout, it’s hard to project him for more than 30 minutes so he’ll need to average over a fantasy point per minute. He’s only a guy I’d take a shot in a large field tournament, but Stephen Curry isn’t a great defender and the Warriors are 15th in DVP against PG.

FD — $6,900— PG
DK — $7,100– PG
Min/Game —Season: 25.9 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 32.3

Robert Covington

Covington has seen a big minutes boost recently over his past five games, and that has translated to increased fantasy production. He’s produced at least 24 FD points in six of his past seven games, and the Warriors have struggled with SF over the past week. He’d probably be my favorite 76er in the early slate, but I wouldn’t play him in an all day slate as he may not see his recent minutes boost in this one due to the blowout.

FD — $5,100— SF
DK — $6,000– SF
Min/Game —Season: 26.8 | Last Five Games: 35.6
FP/Game — Season: 22.4

Detroit at Toronto – 06:30 PM

Detroit Toronto
detroitnba Vegas Total 204 torontonba Vegas Total 204
Vegas Sprd 7.5 Vegas Sprd -7.5
Team Proj. 98.5 Team Proj. 106.0
Team Pace 97.74 Team Pace 95.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond Proj Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan James Johnson Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 3 10 6 9 14 Opp. Season 12 11 2 21 9
Opp. Last 7 24 9 5 1 10 Opp. Last 7 8 4 20 24 23

Detroit

Record: 25-22 — Road: 10-14 — Last 10: 4-6

The early slate is tough as we have a likely blowout in Philly, and then Detroit facing a very tough Toronto defense. If you’re in an all day slate, I’d look to load up on the late slate as that is where more of the fantasy potential lies.

As you can see, Toronto has been a very good defensive team, and they Pistons’ team total is 3.9 points lower than their season total. In terms of DVP, the Raptors are in the top half of the league against every position, with their “weakest” position being Center.

NONE

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Andre Drummond

Drummond isn’t playing his best basketball of the season, and I wouldn’t pay his tag for cash games. However, he’s proven to be a player that can bust out for a big game even against tough competition. This isn’t a great matchup, but the Raptors are 14th in DVP against centers so it’s not the worst matchup to take a shot in a tournament.

FD — $8,500— C
DK — $8,600– C
Min/Game —Season: 33.7 | Last Five Games: 30.6
FP/Game — Season: 40.9

Stanley Johnson

Outside of maybe a tournament dart throw on Drummond, I’m likely to fade the Pistons. However, if you’re in dire need of value in the early slate then Johnson is earning more minutes and has played well in his last two games with 27 FD points in each.

FD — $3,900— SF
DK — $4,000– SF
Min/Game —Season: 22.6 | Last Five Games: 25.0
FP/Game — Season: 15.8

Toronto

Record: 31-15 — Home: 17-6 — Last 10: 10-0

The Raptors are on a roll as they’re 10-0 over their last ten games, and Vegas has them installed with a team total of 105 points.

The Pistons have been a solid defensive team all year long and have been tough to target for fantasy purposes so I don’t love this game. However, Vegas seems to like Detroit here as they have a team total 4.2 points higher than their season total. If you’re playing in the early slate only contest, Terrence Ross is a potential value play, but for the all day slate, the only Toronto Raptors making the cut are Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, and Jonas Valunciunas.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry

Based on the Vegas total, we can expect a solid outing from the terrific Toronto backcourt. I slightly prefer Lowry’s matchup against Reggie Jackson over DeRozan’s against Caldwell-Pope so I’ll lean towards Lowry. He was thought to possibly miss his last game, but he played and played very well so there look to be no injury concerns. He’s been great all season long and fills up the stat sheet.

FD — $9,000— PG
DK — $8,700– PG
Min/Game —Season: 36.6 | Last Five Games: 37.6
FP/Game — Season: 39.2

Secondary Plays

DeMar DeRozan

He’s a secondary option for me today as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a solid defender and Detroit is 13th in DVP against SG. He doesn’t fill up the stat sheet like Lowry so he’s more reliant on scoring. However, Vegas does like the Toronto offense here and DeRozan has been rolling offensively over his past ten games.

FD — $8,200— SG
DK — $8,000– SG
Min/Game —Season: 36.5 | Last Five Games: 35.4
FP/Game — Season: 35.0

Jonas Valunciunas

If you’re playing in the early only slate, he’s my top option as he’s playing well and is still very affordable. He’s produced at least 30 FD points in six of his last eight games, with at least 25 FD points in each of those games. The matchup with Andre Drummond is not ideal, but Drummond’s presence should help solidify Valunciunas’ minutes in this one, as Toronto will be less likely to go small. In terms of the entire seven games slate however he’s just a secondary option as some of the centers in the later games have great matchups.

FD — $6,500— C
DK — $6,200– C
Min/Game —Season: 26.8 | Last Five Games: 27.0
FP/Game — Season: 26.8

Brooklyn at New Orleans – 07:00 PM

Brooklyn New Orleans
brooklynnba Vegas Total neworleansnba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. Team Proj.
Team Pace 96.82 Team Pace 98.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Donald Sloan Wayne Ellington Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj Starter Norris Cole Tyreke Evans Alonzo Gee Anthony Davis Omer Asik
Opp. Season 14 26 10 13 30 Opp. Season 27 20 23 17 26
Opp. Last 7 9 25 18 2 26 Opp. Last 7 17 6 26 15 5

Brooklyn

There are two big injury question marks with the Pelicans (Tyreke Evans and Anthony Davis) so the total and spread of this game are still TBD. However, this looks like a solid game to target for fantasy purposes as neither defense has been very good this season.

The Pelicans rank near the bottom of the league in most defensive categories, and while Brooklyn has been a bad offensive team, this is a spot where they should have some offensive success.

On sites where you aren’t required to roster more than 1 SG I’d look to play either James Harden or Monta Ellis and move on as the position is thin. I basically never roster Joe Johnson, but it’s a thin position on a site like FD where you have to roster 2 SG. If you can’t afford the Monta/Harden combo then Joe Johnson has topped 20 FD points in four straight games and seven of his last ten games so he may not kill you.

Elite Plays

Brook Lopez

Lopez was in a bit of slump, but he busted out in a big way last night with 50+ fantasy points. He draws the premier center matchup on the day as the Pelicans are dead last in DVP against centers and could also be without Anthony Davis.

FD — $8,100— C
DK — $7,100– C
Min/Game —Season: 33.4 | Last Five Games: 30.4
FP/Game — Season: 34.8

Secondary Plays

Thaddeus Young

If Anthony Davis plays then I think he’s a secondary option as Davis is a tough defender, but if Davis sits then I think he’s a borderline elite option. The Nets offense runs through their two big men and Thad’s price has dropped around the industry. He’s averaging 30 FD PPG which is almost 5x salary on both FD and DK.

FD — $6,400— PF
DK — $6,300– PF
Min/Game —Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 32.8
FP/Game — Season: 30.1

Wayne Ellington

I never like to roster Ellington but he’s stepped into the starting lineup and is averaging 28 MPG over his past five games. The Nets defense against SG has been very bad, and while Ellington is scoring reliant, this is a game where he should be able to score. He’s dirt cheap around the industry and is a viable punt at a tough position, but I would not categorize him as safe as he does have 10 to 12 fantasy point dud potential.

FD — $3,700— SG
DK — $3,300– SG
Min/Game —Season: 19.2 | Last Five Games: 28.2
FP/Game — Season: 11.1

Donald Sloan

Donald Sloan has taken over as starting PG,but Shane Larkin has carved out a role and they sometimes split minutes. It’s tough to predict which one to target on a nightly basis so Sloan is a tournament only value option, and I much prefer Norris Cole as the value PG if Tyreke Evans is out.

FD — $4,400— PG
DK — $4,800– PG
Min/Game —Season: 18.3 | Last Five Games: 27
FP/Game — Season: 13.8

New Orleans

As mentioned above the Pelicans are going to be a team that we have to monitor today as there is a great deal of uncertainty. Tyreke Evans and Anthony Davis missed their last game, and are questionable to play tonight. Even if Evans suits up, it sounds like he’ll be on a minutes restriction so he’s a player to avoid even if he plays.

Omer Asik draws a nice matchup, and his minutes should be more secure with Brook Lopez opposite him. However, he gets very little usage and his minutes can be volatile so he’s a risky option as he’s doesn’t bring a high floor or ceiling to the table.

Elite Plays

TBD:

If Davis and Evans sit then we will likely see the same starting five as last game: Norris Cole, Bryce Dejean-Jones, Alonzo Gee, Ryan Anderson and Omer Asik. Holiday would continue to come off the bench, but is arguably the best play of the group as he’s been terrific recently and would get tons of usage. Under that scenario, Norris Cole, Jrue Holiday, and Ryan Anderson are elite options with Gee looming as a punt SF option. If Davis plays then Ryan Anderson would become a secondary option at best, with Davis becoming a risky cash game option. However, he’s an an elite tournament option as outside of the state Attorney Generals, he’s basically DFS enemy number one, and everyone is scared to roster him. If Evans plays, I’d bump Cole and Holiday down to secondary options, but both are still in play due to the shorter slate and the fact that Evans will likely be on a minutes restriction. Gee gets very little offensive usage so he’s dependent on steals, blocks and rebounds, but he has topped 20 FD points in four straight games.

UPDATE- The Pelicans are listing Tyreke Evans as a probable starter, but not Anthony Davis. Based on that, Ryan Anderson is an elite option, while Cole and Holiday do take a hit. Holiday is still a borderline elite target though as Evans likely won’t play a full allotment of minutes, and Holiday has played well even with Evans in the lineup. Over his past seven games, he’s topped 33 FD points six times.

Secondary Plays

TBD

Denver at Indiana – 07:00 PM

Denver Indiana
denvernba Vegas Total 209 indiananba Vegas Total 209
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 100.5 Team Proj. 108.5
Team Pace 97.73 Team Pace 99.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic Proj Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Myles Turner Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 6 21 3 15 21 Opp. Season 28 27 15 23 24
Opp. Last 7 19 3 3 7 17 Opp. Last 7 26 20 17 29 14

Denver

Record: 18-29 — Road: 9-14 — Last 10: 5-5

The Nuggets are one of my least favorite teams from a DFS perspective as Mike Malone’s minutes and rotations can be very tough to figure out. With a solid Indiana defense on tap tonight, this is a spot to tread carefully.

Danilo Gallinari has bee the most consistent Nugget this year and the one player I do roster. However, he draws a very tough matchup with Paul George so I’ll be avoiding him today as Indiana has defended SF well all season. In the earlier meeting between these teams, he put up 30 FD points, which isn’t bad, but no quite what we are looking for.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Will Barton

Barton is a prime example of the problems with the Nuggets as his minutes can be volatile. However, he has played at least 26 minutes in three straight games. The weakness of the Pacers defense is against SG and C and Barton does bring 35 fantasy point upside to the table.

FD — $6,200— SG
DK — $5,900– SG
Min/Game —Season: 29.0 | Last Five Games: 26.8
FP/Game — Season: 27.6

Nikola Jokic

As is the case with most Nuggets, Jokic’s minutes are all over the place and he has a ceiling of around 25 minutes, which is not ideal. However, he’s been producing at a ridiculous fantasy point per minute clip and has topped 35 FD points in three of his last four games. He brings 7x upside to the table if the minutes are there and the Pacers have struggled against centers. With the Pacers moving to a bigger lineup with Myles Turner at PF, it should help ensure he gets 20 minutes, and if he gets 25 minutes then you have to like his tournament upside. Given the minute uncertainty and with some other centers in quality matchups, he’s a risky cash game option.

FD — $5,400— C
DK — $4,900– C
Min/Game —Season: 19.2 | Last Five Games: 21.6
FP/Game — Season: 20.1

Indiana

Indiana Pacers

Record: 24-22 — Road: 14-7 — Last 10: 3-7

The Pacers draw a quality matchup with the poor defense of the Nuggets tonight and check in with a very high team total of 108 points, which is 5.8 points higher than their season average. Rodney Stuckey has already been ruled out for tonight, which solidifies Monta Ellis minutes. The other news of note is that Myles Turner drew his first start last game and is expected to remain in the starting lineup.

Ian Mahinmi returned from injury recently and has averaged 29.5 MPG. The matchup is solid so I don’t hate the play, but there are a few other centers higher on my list on this short slate.

Elite Plays

Myles Turner

As mentioned Turner drew his first start last game and produced 28 FD points in 26 minutes. The minutes aren’t ideal but he’s averaged a fantasy point per minute on the season so all we need is 25 minutes for him to hit 5x salary on DK and FD. The matchup is ideal against a Denver team that is 23rd in DVP against PG and he just poured in 41 FD points against them two weeks ago.

FD — $5,100— PF
DK — $5,300— C
Min/Game —Season: 17.2 | Last Five Games: 27.0
FP/Game — Season: 17.2

Monta Ellis

I struggled on whether to put Monta in the elite or secondary category as he’s a guy who is always tough to trust. However, SG is very thin and if you’re not paying up for Harden then he’s the next best option. His minutes have been very secure, and the Nuggets are 27th in DVP against SG on the season. I don’t love the rising price tag, but he’s produced at least 28 FD points in eight of his last ten games so he’s been a reliable option at a tough position.

FD — $6,600— SG
DK — $6,800– SG
Min/Game —Season: 33.4 | Last Five Games: 32.8
FP/Game — Season: 26.8

Secondary Plays

Paul George

The matchup is elite for George so I think he’s a fine tournament option. He’s shown 50 fantasy point upside plenty of times this season, including just recently against the Clippers. However, as evidenced by his last game, he’s started to throw in a few too many complete duds at his elevated price point. There’s also been some rumblings about tired legs and perhaps seeing a few less minutes per game, which is also not ideal.

FD — $8,500— SF
DK — $8,900– SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.4 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 38.7

Washington at Houston – 08:00 PM

Washington Houston
washingtonnba Vegas Total 218 houstonnba Vegas Total 218
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 107.8 Team Proj. 110.8
Team Pace 99.79 Team Pace 99.38
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Otto Porter Nene Hilario Marcin Gortat Proj Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Corey Brewer Trevor Ariza Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 20 22 27 30 19 Opp. Season 11 25 30 7 12
Opp. Last 7 25 14 23 11 27 Opp. Last 7 27 8 24 12 20

Washington

Record: 20-24 — Road: 10-9 — Last 10: 5-5

This is the top game to target on this slate as it checks in with a total of 218 points, with a spread of only 3 points. The Rockets are poor defensively across the board so all of the Wizards’ starters draw quality matchups. The one area I’m watching is the PF matchup here as the Rockets have been playing small with Ariza and Brewer at the forward spots, while the Wizards have moved Nene into the starting lineup. I’d keep an eye to see whether the Rockets go big to match the Wizards of the Wizards go small to match Houston.

There is some uncertainty on the wings with Washington that we do need to monitor. Otto Porter is listed as questionable as he was hurt last game and Gary Neal missed the last game too. As a result, Garrett Temple played 38 minutes last game and becomes a quality option if Porter and Neal are out. If they play, things become much more dicey as Brad Beal is still looming off the bench to play his 25 to 26 minutes. As far as Beal goes, I love his game and the matchup against James Harden is great, but I’m not a fan of rostering guys with minutes limits like Beal seems to currently have. If Porter plays then he could be worth a look as a second SF on a site like Fd, but I’d make sure that he isn’t play under any restrictions as he has been very banged up recently.

UPDATE – Porter is listed as probable, which really hurts the value of Garrett Temple. As long as he’s fully cleared with no limits, he’s a tournament option as he should be low owned due to his injury.

Elite Plays

John Wall

Wall is the premier option on this short slate at PG. If Tyreke Evans sits out then rolling with both Holiday and Cole is a great option, but if Evans plays then I’m likely to try to squeeze Wall into my lineups. The pace of this game should fit his game perfectly, and he piled up 26 points, 9 rebounds and 12 assists in the first meeting between these teams. Patrick Beverley is a solid defender but he’s shown some slippage this season.

FD — $9,700— PG
DK — $9,400— PG
Min/Game —Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 35.6
FP/Game — Season: 40.6

Secondary Plays

Marcin Gortat

Gortat isn’t an exciting player to roster, but you can typically pencil him in for 30 fantasy points. I don’t like the down ward trend in his minutes, and I’m trying to get up to Brook Lopez or Marc Gasol, but he’s a solid cash game option as this game should feature a ton of fantasy potential.

FD — $6,900— C
DK — $7,000— C
Min/Game —Season: 31.7 | Last Five Games: 32.4
FP/Game — Season: 29.8

Nene Hilario

As mentioned above, I’m curious to see how this matchup at PF unfolds as the Rockets have gone small, while the Wizards have gone big. I’m a little worried the pace of this game is too much for Nene but over his past five games, he’s seeing 6 minutes above his season average and is averaging a fantasy point per minute on the season. The matchup is great as the Rockets are dead last in DVP against PF, and basically any PF not named Serge Ibaka (still bitter about last night) has produced against them. Given the fact that the pace of this game could force him to the sideline, I’d prefer to take my shots with him in tournaments.

FD — $4,500— PF
DK — $4,600— PF
Min/Game —Season: 18.8 | Last Five Games: 24.6
FP/Game — Season: 18.3

Houston

Record: 25-24 — Home: 15-11 — Last 10: 5-5

The Rockets check in with the highest team total on the slate at 110 points, which is 6.1 points higher than their season average. It is worth noting that this is their third game in four nights, but Vegas doesn’t seem to be too concerned. I would monitor their starting lineup to see if Brewer draws another start or if they insert Clint Capela back into the starting lineup to matchup with the big Wizards frontline.

Elite Plays

James Harden

The only concern for Harden here is the third game in four nights as everything else points to him as the elite play at SG today. The Wizards have struggled against wings all season long and Harden torched them in the first meeting for 42 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists in 40 minutes. I’d probably only pencil him in for 35 minutes tonight but the SG position is too thin and the matchup too good to overlook.

FD — $10,200— SG
DK — $10,100— SG
Min/Game —Season: 37.3 | Last Five Games: 35.6
FP/Game — Season: 45.1

Secondary Plays

Corey Brewer (if he starts)

If Brewer draws the start, he’ll be one of the better values plays on this short slate. The Wizards are dead last in DVP against SF on the season and Brew has exceeded salary in six of his last eight games. He does come with some risk though as he’s failed to reach 11 FD points in those other two games, and the Rockets could be forced to play bigger today.

FD — $3,600— SF
DK — $3,800— SF
Min/Game —Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 27.0
FP/Game — Season: 13.6

Trevor Ariza

Ariza isn’t an exciting option to roster, but he brings very stable minutes to the table and has been very good in four of his past five games. Depending on the lineup the Rockets roll out, he’ll at least see some minutes at SF against the Wizards terrible SF defense, and will have a quickness advantage over Nene if both teams stick with their current starting lineups.

FD — $5,700— SF
DK — $5,500— SF
Min/Game —Season: 34.3 | Last Five Games: 37.0
FP/Game — Season: 23.3

Dwight Howard (GPP only)

I’m giving the clear edge to Brook Lopez and Marc Gasol tonight, who are similarly priced to Howard, so I’m unlikely to have much, if any exposure to Howard. However, if you’re looking to fade Harden and want exposure to Houston then Howard could be a large field GPP pivot. Marcin Gortat is a quality low post defender but the Wizards’ interior defense has been leaky recently.

FD — $8,100— C
DK — $7,500— C
Min/Game —Season: 32 | Last Five Games: 22.0
FP/Game — Season: 33.8

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About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)