NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 14th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
| Milwaukee Bucks | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.0 |  | Vegas Total | 208.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -9.0 | Vegas Spread | 9.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 108.5 | Implied Team Total | 99.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | Projected Starters | D.J. Augustin | Jonathon Simmons | Jonathan Isaac | Mario Hezonja | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 30 | 27 | 17 | 26 | 20 | DvP | 7 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 26 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 20 | 30 | 10 | 28 | 8 | DRPM Rat. | 8 | 26 | 25 | 3 | 5 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks have lost six of their last ten games, but are a safe bet to make the playoffs. With a strong finish to the season, they could potentially move up to the fourth or fifth seed in the East. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Magic, who are ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Bucks have an implied total of 108.5 points, which is the third highest on the board and three points above their season average.
Eric Bledsoe has seen a big boost in playing time with Malcolm Brogdon on the shelf, but that could change a bit moving forward. Brandon Jennings made his season debut on Monday, playing 24 minutes and nearly posting a triple-double. In a game that features a high spread, I will take my chances with Jennings over Bledsoe given the discrepancy in price. Unfortunately, Jennings is not available on FanDuel, but is sitting at a very playable $4,400 on DraftKings. Khris Middleton has an elite matchup and should play 35+ minutes at a fair price point. The $100 discount makes Middleton a more appealing target on FanDuel than on DraftKings.
Giannis Antetokounmpo feels overpriced on FanDuel, but with so much value available tonight, it’s not the worst idea to pay up at both small forward spots in order to lock in those fantasy points. Giannis should have no problem racking up stats against a Magic team that doesn’t do anything particularly well. Playing both Giannis and Kevin Durant leaves us with an average of $5,357 per player on FanDuel and $4,666 on DraftKings. John Henson, Jabari Parker, and Tyler Zeller would typically have fantasy appeal in a small slate like this one, but they don’t even make my list of top eight value plays tonight.
Notable Injuries
Matthew Dellavedova (Out)
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 105.1 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.5 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 3.4 (2 of 8)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.5 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.8 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.4 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $7,800 | $7,400 | $14,600 | 33.3 | -0.1 | 31.3 | 1.2 | 1.06 | 23.7% | 28 | 30 | 20 |
| Tony Snell | $3,800 | $3,300 | $6,200 | 14.4 | 0.1 | 28.6 | -2.5 | 0.50 | 9.7% | 25 | 27 | 30 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,400 | $7,500 | $14,200 | 34.3 | -1.8 | 36.5 | -1.3 | 0.94 | 22.3% | 28 | 17 | 10 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $12,000 | $10,600 | $19,800 | 52.0 | -2.5 | 37.1 | -1.2 | 1.40 | 28.1% | 16 | 26 | 28 |
| John Henson | $5,300 | $5,100 | $9,900 | 23.4 | -1.8 | 25.6 | -0.4 | 0.91 | 12.9% | 26 | 20 | 8 |
| Jabari Parker | $5,000 | $4,600 | $8,900 | 19.3 | 0.9 | 21.0 | 2.1 | 0.92 | 20.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Brandon Jennings | $4,400 | $8,900 | 41.6 | 0.0 | 23.8 | 0.0 | 1.75 | 23.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton (FD), Brandon Jennings (DK)
Secondary Plays – Khris Middleton (DK), Eric Bledsoe
Orlando Magic
The Magic have lost eight of their last ten games and are tied with the Hawks for the third-worst record in the NBA. They have no incentive to win the rest of the season and draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the slow-paced Bucks, who are ranked 13th in points allowed per game and 15th in defensive efficiency this season. The Magic come into the game with the lowest implied total (99.5 points) and the worst projected point differential (-5.2) of any team on the slate.
The key injury to monitor here is the availability of Aaron Gordon. He is hoping to get cleared to play after suffering a concussion last week. If he is able to suit up, the Magic become an easy team to fade in all formats. If Gordon is out, there is some potential for the likes of Mario Hezonja, Jonathon Simmons, and Nikola Vucevic. My initial plan is to spend up at small forward, which puts Hezonja and Simmons into the tournament play category. Vucevic is an intriguing play in all formats. With Gordon and Fournier out of the lineup this season, Vucevic has averaged 1.35 fantasy points per minutes with a 30% usage rate.
Notable Injuries
Evan Fournier (Out)
Aaron Gordon (Questionable)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 104.7 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.5 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -5.2 (8 of 8)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.4 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Augustin | $4,500 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 17.9 | 1.8 | 22.6 | 5.8 | 0.79 | 18.2% | 9 | 7 | 8 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $6,400 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 22.6 | 0.8 | 29.2 | 2.2 | 0.78 | 19.1% | 17 | 12 | 26 |
| Jonathan Isaac | $4,500 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 15.4 | 2.4 | 19.3 | 1.9 | 0.80 | 11.7% | 12 | 1 | 25 |
| Mario Hezonja | $4,900 | $5,200 | $10,200 | 17.8 | 0.5 | 20.4 | 6.0 | 0.87 | 17.2% | 2 | 9 | 3 |
| Nikola Vucevic | $8,600 | $8,000 | $15,500 | 36.9 | -4.3 | 30.1 | 0.7 | 1.23 | 22.8% | 28 | 26 | 5 |
| Shelvin Mack | $4,300 | $4,100 | $8,500 | 15.6 | 0.1 | 18.7 | 3.1 | 0.83 | 17.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Nikola Vucevic (if Gordon is out)
Secondary Plays – Mario Hezonja & Jonathon Simmons (GPP – if Gordon is out)
Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics – 8:00 PM ET
| Washington Wizards | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.0 |  | Vegas Total | 204.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -3.5 | Vegas Spread | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.8 | Implied Team Total | 100.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tomas Satoransky | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Projected Starters | Terry Rozier | Shane Larkin | Jayson Tatum | Marcus Morris | Aron Baynes | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 1 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 10 | DvP | 13 | 9 | 24 | 2 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 3 | 9 | 7 | 26 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 8 | 13 | 2 | 21 | 9 | |
Washington Wizards
The Wizards have lost six of their last ten games and have some work to do if they want to host a first-round playoff series. Tonight’s matchup against the Celtics looks awful on paper, but this is not the same Boston team that we have seen all year. They will be without three of their starters and two of their key bench players. I still expect this to be a slow-paced game, but the matchup is better than the numbers indicate. The Wizards have an implied total of 103.8 points, which is the fifth highest on the board.
Tomas Satoransky had another solid outing last night against the Wolves and is only $5,700 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. While I don’t mind him as a contrarian play in tournaments, Shane Larkin and Terry Rozier are both above-average defenders. Bradley Beal continues to burn me on a nightly basis. If I play him, he puts up a dud (see Monday night) and if I fade him, he plays well. The worst part is that I’ve been on the wrong side of Beal for years now. I’m not a huge fan of the matchup and will likely be avoiding him in all formats, which means everyone else should load up on him.
Otto Porter is in the same ‘tournament play only’ category as Mario Hezonja and Jonathon Simmons. While you can technically play three small forwards on DraftKings, that just doesn’t feel right. Markieff Morris and his brother will square off in a battle of the power forwards. My money is on Marcus, as he will handle more of the load offensively. As we’ll get to shortly, the Celtics will be forced to have a tight rotation and everyone will see a usage boost. Marcin Gortat is cheap, but there are two better center options in this game alone.
Notable Injuries
John Wall (Out)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 107.2 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -3.5 (6 of 8)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Satoransky | $5,700 | $5,700 | $10,900 | 17.5 | 10.4 | 20.8 | 10.1 | 0.84 | 15.1% | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| Bradley Beal | $8,200 | $8,500 | $14,900 | 38.0 | -3.7 | 36.4 | -1.3 | 1.04 | 26.0% | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| Otto Porter | $7,400 | $6,500 | $12,300 | 31.3 | -2.8 | 32.0 | -1.1 | 0.98 | 17.3% | 4 | 11 | 7 |
| Markieff Morris | $5,500 | $5,400 | $10,600 | 23.3 | 4.9 | 26.8 | 2.8 | 0.87 | 16.5% | 4 | 1 | 26 |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,000 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 22.6 | -7.0 | 25.6 | -5.0 | 0.88 | 13.9% | 9 | 10 | 1 |
| Kelly Oubre | $5,500 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 21.8 | 0.9 | 27.6 | -1.2 | 0.79 | 16.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mike Scott | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,700 | 14.0 | 2.3 | 18.1 | 0.5 | 0.77 | 17.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ian Mahinmi | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 12.6 | 1.0 | 14.8 | -0.6 | 0.85 | 11.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal, Tomas Satoransky (GPP), Otto Porter (DK)
Boston Celtics
Wow, wow, wow. I have no other words to describe the state of the Celtics right now. For tonight’s game against the Wizards, Boston will be without Kyrie Irving, Al Horford, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, and Daniel Theis. There is no point in running CourtIQ with all of those players off the floor because that will leave us with a small sample size. Not only that, but any stats that occurred with all of those players off the floor had to have been in garbage time. Despite playing with their B-team, the Celtics are only 3.5-point underdogs and have an implied total of 100.3 points.
We’ll start with what I expect to be the starting lineup — Shane Larkin, Terry Rozier, Jayson Tatum, Marcus Morris, and Aron Baynes. Larkin would be in line to play 30 minutes if he didn’t just return from a knee injury. The Celtics have said that Larkin will remain on a 15-17 minute limit. While he could see a few extra minutes tonight, it won’t be enough to warrant consideration. There’s a decent chance that Rozier plays 40 minutes in this one. I know the matchup is subpar and that he is priced up across the industry, but he may not have another opportunity like this the rest of the season. I will be locking Rozier into my cash game and tournament lineups. Abdel Nader should see extended action, but is a deep tournament play in a slate that features so many elite values.
Jayson Tatum has really struggled in the second half of the season, but he could play 35 minutes in a game where he will be a focal point offensively. I’m intrigued by his price point on DraftKings ($5,700) and slightly prefer him over Otto Porter. Semi Ojeleye has an abysmal usage rate (8.3%) and FP/min (0.39). The minutes will be there, but there are better value plays tonight. Marcus Morris has played well recently and should see a healthy boost in playing time and usage. He’s one of the top power forward targets tonight, especially on DraftKings ($5,600). Aron Baynes and Greg Monroe are my top two point-per-dollar plays at center. Baynes is safer since he will draw the start, but Monroe offers more upside.
Notable Injuries
Kyrie Irving (Out)
Al Horford (Out)
Jaylen Brown (Out)
Marcus Smart (Out)
Daniel Theis (Out)
Jayson Tatum (Probable)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 104.4 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.3 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -4.2 (7 of 8)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.9 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Rozier | $7,300 | $7,100 | $12,800 | 22.3 | 1.4 | 24.4 | 4.1 | 0.92 | 19.6% | 10 | 13 | 8 |
| Shane Larkin | $3,800 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 11.5 | 2.2 | 0.65 | 15.1% | 6 | 9 | 13 |
| Jayson Tatum | $6,500 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 25.2 | -2.5 | 30.3 | -5.3 | 0.83 | 16.2% | 14 | 24 | 2 |
| Marcus Morris | $6,100 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 22.0 | 3.0 | 25.5 | 2.9 | 0.86 | 19.8% | 21 | 2 | 21 |
| Aron Baynes | $4,500 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 15.5 | 2.3 | 17.7 | -1.5 | 0.88 | 14.6% | 6 | 8 | 9 |
| Semi Ojeleye | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 5.4 | -2.1 | 13.8 | -3.1 | 0.39 | 8.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Greg Monroe | $5,000 | $4,600 | $8,900 | 21.9 | -0.9 | 19.8 | -2.7 | 1.11 | 18.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Abdel Nader | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,300 | 5.1 | -0.8 | 9.1 | 1.2 | 0.56 | 14.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Terry Rozier, Greg Monroe, Aron Baynes, Jayson Tatum (DK), Marcus Morris (DK)
Secondary Plays – Jayson Tatum (FD), Marcus Morris (FD)
Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM ET
| Miami Heat | Sacramento Kings | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -7.0 | Vegas Spread | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.8 | Implied Team Total | 100.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.3 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Tyler Johnson | Justise Winslow | James Johnson | Bam Adebayo | Projected Starters | De’Aaron Fox | Bogdan Bogdanovic | Justin Jackson | Zach Randolph | Kosta Koufos | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 15 | 15 | 21 | 29 | DvP | 4 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 9 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 29 | 23 | 23 | 28 | 22 | DRPM Rat. | 22 | 14 | 1 | 14 | 10 | |
Miami Heat
This has to be the most injury-plagued four game slate that I have ever seen. The Heat are expected to be without Dwyane Wade, Josh Richardson, and Hassan Whiteside, as they square off against the Kings. This is a favorable matchup for fantasy production, as Sacramento is ranked 29th in defensive efficiency and 28th in rebounding differential this season. The Heat have an implied total of 107.8 points, which is the highest on the board and five points above their season average.
Goran Dragic has seen a decline in his minutes recently, which has led to a decrease in his production. At a similar price point, I will gladly take Terry Rozier at point guard. Tyler Johnson is a sneaky value play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. With Wade out of the lineup on Monday, Johnson played 34 minutes and scored 24 fantasy points. Wayne Ellington should see minutes in the low 30s and offers nice value at shooting guard.
Justise Winslow has been terrific over his last five games, averaging 31 minutes and 32 fantasy points. He will get overlooked in all formats given his price point. With Whiteside out, the Heat frontcourt trio of Kelly Olynyk, Bam Adebayo, and James Johnson should all be on our radar. Adebayo is the safest cash game target, while Johnson and Olynyk offer great upside in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
Dwyane Wade (Out)
Hassan Whiteside (Out)
Josh Richardson (Doubtful)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 102.4 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 5.3 (1 of 8)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.1 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.3 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,500 | $7,200 | $12,800 | 30.6 | -3.1 | 31.6 | -3.2 | 0.97 | 25.2% | 13 | 17 | 29 |
| Tyler Johnson | $5,000 | $5,000 | $9,900 | 22.6 | 0.9 | 29.1 | -0.6 | 0.78 | 17.8% | 26 | 15 | 23 |
| Justise Winslow | $5,800 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 19.8 | 12.3 | 24.1 | 7.0 | 0.82 | 14.7% | 19 | 15 | 23 |
| James Johnson | $4,600 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 23.9 | -1.9 | 25.9 | -5.9 | 0.92 | 18.1% | 18 | 21 | 28 |
| Bam Adebayo | $4,300 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 18.4 | -8.5 | 19.8 | -6.9 | 0.93 | 14.7% | 29 | 29 | 22 |
| Kelly Olynyk | $5,500 | $5,800 | $11,500 | 22.9 | 6.2 | 23.2 | -0.3 | 0.99 | 18.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Wayne Ellington | $4,000 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 18.1 | 2.1 | 26.3 | -0.8 | 0.69 | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Bam Adebayo, James Johnson, Kelly Olynyk (GPP), Justise Winslow (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kelly Olynyk (Cash), Justise Winslow (Cash), Goran Dragic, Wayne Ellington
Sacramento Kings
The Kings have nothing to play for at this point of the season. They currently have the fifth worst record in basketball and they own their first-round pick in the upcoming draft. They not only have no incentive to win, but draw an awful matchup tonight against the Heat. On the season, Miami is ranked fourth in points allowed per game and tenth in defensive efficiency. Surprisingly, the Kings’ implied total (100.8 points) is slightly higher than their season average.
The Kings are the team that I will have the least exposure to tonight. De’Aaron Fox is cheap, but he’s been inconsistent and the matchup is less than appealing. Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic should be playing 30+ minutes a night, but that hasn’t been the case recently. The Kings’ frontcourt would typically have some appeal in a small slate like this one, but the Heat, Celtics, and Lakers all have better plays at power forward and center.
Notable Injuries
Skal Labissiere (Questionable)
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 99.3 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.8 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 1.5 (3 of 8)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.8 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De’Aaron Fox | $6,000 | $5,300 | $10,700 | 22.6 | -2.3 | 27.3 | -2.9 | 0.83 | 21.9% | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | $5,900 | $5,600 | $10,500 | 22.3 | 2.0 | 27.6 | -0.8 | 0.81 | 18.5% | 8 | 13 | 14 |
| Justin Jackson | $4,200 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 20.9 | 7.1 | 0.59 | 13.4% | 13 | 2 | 1 |
| Zach Randolph | $5,600 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 26.8 | -2.6 | 25.7 | -1.8 | 1.04 | 24.4% | 12 | 6 | 14 |
| Kosta Koufos | $4,400 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 18.6 | 6.1 | 19.3 | 4.8 | 0.96 | 14.1% | 4 | 9 | 10 |
| Skal Labissiere | $6,200 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 18.0 | 7.7 | 19.7 | 7.9 | 0.91 | 18.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Buddy Hield | $5,300 | $5,200 | $10,200 | 21.5 | -1.7 | 24.4 | 1.4 | 0.88 | 21.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | $6,500 | $5,900 | $11,300 | 28.7 | -3.4 | 27.7 | 1.7 | 1.04 | 19.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – De’Aaron Fox (GPP)
Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET
| Los Angeles Lakers | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 225.5 |  | Vegas Total | 225.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.5 | Vegas Spread | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 109.0 | Implied Team Total | 116.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.9 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Lonzo Ball | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Kuzma | Julius Randle | Brook Lopez | Projected Starters | Quinn Cook | Andre Iguodala | Kevin Durant | Jordan Bell | JaVale McGee | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 14 | 21 | 7 | 25 | 13 | DvP | 23 | 23 | 29 | 29 | 16 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 17 | 3 | 20 | 5 | 23 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 7 | 30 | 18 | 23 | |
Los Angeles Lakers
If the Lakers would have played better in December and January, they would have been in playoff contention in the West. With no incentive to tank, they have been playing some great basketball over the last few weeks. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Warriors, who will be missing three of their four superstars. Despite playing on the road and in the second half of a back-to-back, the Lakers have an implied total of 109 points, which is the second highest of the slate.
Lonzo Ball did not play well last night against the Nuggets, yet he still finished the game with 39 fantasy points. His ability to fill up the stat sheet and play big minutes makes him a great play in both cash games and tournaments. Isaiah Thomas should play around 30 minutes off the bench. While I prefer Terry Rozier at a similar price point, Thomas does have appeal in tournaments. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has a chance to log 38-40 minutes once again. Shooting guard is the one position that doesn’t feature many value plays, so it makes sense to pay up for someone like Caldwell-Pope.
Kyle Kuzma left last night’s game with an ankle injury, but he returned and had another big fantasy outing. It’s possible that the ankle swelled up overnight, as he is officially listed as questionable. Kuzma has played at least 37 minutes in each of his last five games and has averaged 35 fantasy points during that stretch. Assuming he’s a full go, Kuzma is an elite option at power forward. Julius Randle price came way down on FanDuel ($7,400), which also puts him in the elite play category. Brook Lopez has been on a tear recently, but I’m a little worried that if both of these teams end up play small ball, Lopez’s minutes could come down into the mid 20s.
Notable Injuries
Brandon Ingram (Out)
Josh Hart (Out)
Channing Frye (Out)
Kyle Kuzma (Questionable)
Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.8 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 0.2 (5 of 8)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.8 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.5 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lonzo Ball | $7,300 | $7,600 | $14,000 | 34.4 | -0.7 | 33.6 | 2.4 | 1.02 | 18.1% | 14 | 14 | 17 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $6,300 | $6,000 | $11,800 | 27.5 | 1.9 | 33.5 | 5.1 | 0.82 | 15.5% | 4 | 21 | 3 |
| Kyle Kuzma | $6,800 | $6,600 | $12,100 | 27.2 | 7.7 | 30.1 | 9.4 | 0.90 | 19.8% | 10 | 7 | 20 |
| Julius Randle | $7,400 | $8,100 | $15,000 | 29.4 | 11.5 | 25.8 | 8.1 | 1.14 | 21.5% | 11 | 25 | 5 |
| Brook Lopez | $6,700 | $6,100 | $11,600 | 23.2 | 13.5 | 22.2 | 8.1 | 1.04 | 21.4% | 18 | 13 | 23 |
| Isaiah Thomas | $6,600 | $6,300 | $12,700 | 24.3 | 4.0 | 26.7 | 2.7 | 0.91 | 26.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ivica Zubac | $3,600 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 7.8 | 1.9 | 0.82 | 14.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Lonzo Ball, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, Julius Randle (FD)
Secondary Plays – Julius Randle (DK), Isaiah Thomas, Brook Lopez
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are yet another team in this slate that is hobbled. They have already ruled out Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, David West, and Patrick McCaw. Andre Iguodala is also listed as questionable. The good news is that the Warriors are facing a Lakers’ team that is ranked first in pace of play and 27th in points allowed per game. Despite missing half of their team, the Warriors have an implied total of 116.5 points, which is the highest of the slate.
Quinn Cook and Shaun Livingston will split the minutes at point guard. While I don’t hate the plays on a point-per-dollar basis, they don’t quite compare to the other elite plays in this slate. Andre Iguodala would be a lock play for me if I knew he was going to suit up. Unless we get confirmation that he is going to play, he is nothing more than a deep tournament flier. Nick Young and Omri Casspi are likely are safest bets for value tonight on the Warriors. Jordan Bell, Kevon Looney, and JaVale McGee could play well, but none are guaranteed to play more than 15 minutes. The one and only play that I feel great about here is Kevin Durant. He will basically be the team’s entire offense. Durant will be in every single one of my lineups tonight.
Notable Injuries
Stephen Curry (Out)
Klay Thompson (Out)
Draymond Green (Out)
Patrick McCaw (Out)
David West (Out)
Andre Iguodala (Questionable)
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 115.6 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 116.5 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 0.9 (4 of 8)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.1 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.2 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Cook | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,200 | 5.9 | -0.7 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 0.49 | 13.6% | 20 | 23 | 1 |
| Andre Iguodala | $4,500 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 18.9 | 8.7 | 25.5 | 0.4 | 0.74 | 11.1% | 13 | 23 | 7 |
| Kevin Durant | $10,500 | $11,400 | $20,600 | 47.4 | 5.3 | 34.6 | 2.2 | 1.37 | 26.5% | 17 | 29 | 30 |
| Jordan Bell | $3,500 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 15.7 | -5.3 | 13.9 | -4.9 | 1.13 | 12.8% | 25 | 29 | 18 |
| JaVale McGee | $3,800 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 1.25 | 15.1% | 20 | 16 | 23 |
| Shaun Livingston | $4,000 | $3,400 | $7,100 | 11.7 | 4.1 | 15.6 | 3.8 | 0.75 | 15.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Nick Young | $3,800 | $3,200 | $6,300 | 10.1 | 0.7 | 14.9 | 7.0 | 0.68 | 15.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Omri Casspi | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,500 | 13.3 | -8.6 | 14.0 | -5.4 | 0.95 | 13.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |