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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-10 20:35:06

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks – 7:00 PM

Miami Heat Milwaukee Bucks
miaminba Vegas Total 200.5 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 200.5
Vegas Sprd -3.0 Vegas Sprd 3.0
Team Proj. 101.8 Team Proj. 98.8
Team Pace 95.60 Team Pace 96.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Joe Johnson Luol Deng Amar’e Stoudemire Proj. Starter O.J. Mayo Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Miles Plumlee
Opp. Season 8 25 25 21 21 Opp. Season 2 2 17 5 6
Last 3 Weeks 10 20 24 7 27 Last 3 Weeks 8 7 17 14 1

Miami Heat

Record: 37-26 — Road: 16-14 — Last 10: 8-2

The Heat have won eight of their last ten games and are now 37-26 overall. Tonight they head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks in a game that doesn’t really stand out from a fantasy perspective. The Heat are only projected to score 101.8 points, which is the seventh lowest team total on the board. While their total is low, they do have the fifth highest projected point differential at +3.8.

The Bucks have not fared well defensively this season, ranking 18th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The main question mark with the Heat tonight is the availability of Hassan Whiteside. He missed practice yesterday with a stomach bug, but is expected to play tonight after making it through shoot-around this morning.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Hassan Whiteside
hassan-whiteside-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,700 Salary:$8,400
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.21 FP/Min:1.30
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.8 31.4 2.6 29.5 0.7
FPPG (FD) 34.9 45.5 10.6 42.4 7.5
TO-Adj. Usage 15.2 19.0 3.8 19.4 4.2

In almost any other slate, Whiteside would be considered an elite play tonight. He draws an exploitable matchup against the Bucks and he has been tremendous in his last ten games, averaging 45.5 fantasy points. The issue is that there are three other centers that I slightly prefer on a dollar for dollar basis – Dwight Howard, Andre Drummond, and Alex Len. Whiteside is still a great play tonight, but I will probably be using him in tournaments instead of cash games.

Dwyane Wade
dwyane-wade-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$7,200
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.03 FP/Min:1.09
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.6 32.8 2.2 31.4 0.8
FPPG (FD) 31.7 36.2 4.6 38.1 6.4
TO-Adj. Usage 27.2 29.4 2.1 29.1 1.9

Wade is another Heat player that makes a nice target for tournaments. He is getting very little buzz heading into this game, even though he is averaging 38.1 fantasy points over his last five games. His price has come up a bit, but it still doesn’t fully reflect his recent play. He draws an exploitable matchup tonight against the Bucks, who are ranked 25th against shooting guards this season.

Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 26-38 — Home: 18-12 — Last 10: 4-6

The Bucks have lost six of their last ten games and are now 12 games below .500 on the season. They draw one of the worst matchups in daily fantasy basketball tonight, as they host the slow-paced Heat. The Bucks are only projected to score 98.8 points, which is the third lowest team total on the board.

There is a reason why we don’t target players against the Heat. They play at a very slow pace and are ranked fifth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Bucks come into tonight’s game hobbled. Michael Carter-Williams, John Henson, Greivis Vasquez, and Steve Novak have all been ruled out. In case you missed it on Monday, MCW has been ruled out for the season.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo
giannis-antetokounmpo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,600 Salary:$8,700
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.95 FP/Min:1.01
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.3 38.5 3.2 39.6 4.3
FPPG (FD) 33.4 48.1 14.6 52.7 19.3
TO-Adj. Usage 18.1 21.8 3.7 23.1 4.9

There are two things that I try to avoid doing in DFS – overpaying for players and targeting bad matchups. Even though Giannis has been on an absolute tear, we have to pay a premium for him tonight against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. His ownership is going to be inflated thanks to his upside, but my plan is to pull a full Giannis fade tonight. If you do decide to use him, I’d recommend doing it in a GPP.

New Orleans Pelicans at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM

New Orleans Pelicans Charlotte Hornets
neworleansnba Vegas Total 210.0 charlottenba Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Sprd 9.0 Vegas Sprd -9.0
Team Proj. 100.5 Team Proj. 109.5
Team Pace 99.00 Team Pace 97.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Norris Cole Jrue Holiday Dante Cunningham Anthony Davis Omer Asik Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Courtney Lee Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opp. Season 11 12 22 23 12 Opp. Season 14 26 16 16 29
Last 3 Weeks 6 9 29 11 11 Last 3 Weeks 16 27 20 17 28

New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 24-38 — Road: 7-23 — Last 10: 4-6

The Pelicans have lost six of their last ten games and are only 7-23 on the road this season. They are listed as 9-point underdogs tonight against the Hornets in Charlotte. This is not a great matchup for fantasy production. The Pelicans are only projected to score 100.5 points, which is the fourth lowest on the board and two points lower than their scoring average.

The Hornets have played better defense than two-thirds of the teams in the NBA. On the season, they are ranked tenth in points allowed per game and ninth in defensive efficiency. The Pelicans will be short-handed again tonight, as Eric Gordon, Alexis Ajinca, and Bryce Desean-Jones are all out. Norris Cole is dealing with a sore back and is listed as questionable.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Anthony Davis
anthony-davis-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,000 Salary:$9,700
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.23 FP/Min:1.30
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.8 37.3 1.5 36.9 1.1
FPPG (FD) 44.1 47.8 3.7 42.3 -1.8
TO-Adj. Usage 24.4 26.0 1.7 23.9 -0.5

Davis just can’t seem to string together four quarters. He had around ten fantasy points at halftime the other night against the Kings, yet he finished with just over 50. He has upside, he just hasn’t been able to put it all together (with the exception of his game against the Pistons). I won’t be looking his way in cash games tonight, but I do like him in GPPs. With so many superstars in this slate, we can probably get him at less than 15% ownership, even though he draws a nice matchup against the Hornets.

Jrue Holiday
jrue-holiday-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$8,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.07 FP/Min:1.15
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.1 32.1 5.0 33.2 6.1
FPPG (FD) 29.1 36.9 7.8 34.6 5.5
TO-Adj. Usage 24.8 26.0 1.2 23.9 -0.9

Holiday’s production has been down a little bit over his last five games, but that is mainly because Eric Gordon was playing. Now that Gordon is out for the season, we can expect Holiday’s usage to be around 30 for the rest of the season. He has incredible upside, his minutes are trending upward, and he draws a decent matchup against the Hornets. The only thing holding him back from being an elite play is his price tag.

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 34-28 — Home: 22-9 — Last 10: 8-2

The Hornets have been playing some great ball recently, winning eight of their last ten games. They are now six games above .500 this season and are 22-9 on their home floor. They are sizable favorites tonight against the Pelicans and have an implied team total of 109.5 points. Charlotte also has the fourth highest projected point differential at +7.1.

The Pelicans play at a quick pace and have not fared well defensively this season. They are ranked 21st or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Hornets’ offense sees a sizable boost as a whole. As long as the Pelicans are able to keep this game close, this should be a good spot to target a couple of Hornets’ players.

Elite Plays

Kemba Walker
kemba-walker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,800 Salary:$8,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.01 FP/Min:1.08
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.1 37.9 1.8 37.3 1.2
FPPG (FD) 36.6 40.2 3.6 42.9 6.3
TO-Adj. Usage 23.2 23.7 0.5 25.0 1.8

Of the two point guards in this matchup, I slightly prefer Walker over Jrue Holiday. As I always mention, Walker averages nearly five more fantasy points per game at home than he does on the road. He comes into tonight’s game scorching hot, averaging 42.9 fantasy points over his last five games. He also draws a nice matchup against the Pelicans, who are a bottom ten defense this season.

Nicolas Batum
nicolas-batum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,700 Salary:$7,000
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.86 FP/Min:0.95
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.4 36.0 0.6 36.5 1.1
FPPG (FD) 30.4 28.1 -2.3 30.2 -0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 17.2 15.1 -2.2 16.7 -0.6

I’m interested to see what Batum’s ownership will look like. For whatever reason, it seems like either everyone is on him or nobody is on him. I expect him to be fairly popular tonight, as the Pelicans have really struggled to contain wing players this season. As long as the game stays competitive, Batum should see minutes in the mid to upper-30s in what should be an uptempo game.

Secondary Plays

Al Jefferson
al-jefferson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,400 Salary:$4,800
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.1 21.9 -2.2 21.6 -2.5
FPPG (FD) 24.2 21.8 -2.4 24.4 0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 21.1 21.6 0.5 22.9 1.8

When it comes to cash games, Andre Drummond, Dwight Howard, and Alex Len are the top targets at center. However, if you want to take a more contrarian approach in a GPP, you could take a look at Jefferson. He has scored at least 25 fantasy points in three of his last four games and the Hornets loosened the reigns a bit the other night, giving him 26 minutes of action. He has the ability to give you 6x-7x value at this price point.

Houston Rockets at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM

Houston Rockets Philadelphia 76ers
houstonnba Vegas Total 219.0 philadelphianba Vegas Total 219.0
Vegas Sprd -11.0 Vegas Sprd 11.0
Team Proj. 115.0 Team Proj. 104.0
Team Pace 100.00 Team Pace 100.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Donatas Motiejunas Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Jerami Grant Nerlens Noel
Opp. Season 25 18 29 28 30 Opp. Season 15 24 30 30 14
Last 3 Weeks 21 19 22 28 30 Last 3 Weeks 1 28 18 27 3

Houston Rockets

Record: 31-32 — Road: 14-18 — Last 10: 4-6

The Rockets have lost six of their last ten games and hold a slim lead over the Jazz for the final spot in the Western Conference playoffs. They should be able to pick up a win on the road tonight against the Sixers. The Rockets are 11-point favorites with an implied team total of 115 points. Not only do they have the highest team total on the board, but they also have the highest projected point differential at +9.4.

The Sixers are always one of the top teams to target players against. They are basically the Saints of the NFL, while the Kings are more like the Coors Field of MLB. The Rockets’ offense should see a sizable boost as a whole. The one concern here is a potential blowout, but with the way the Rockets have been playing, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game stay within ten points.

Elite Plays

James Harden
james-harden-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$11,000 Salary:$10,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.25 FP/Min:1.37
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.8 40.9 3.1 40.7 2.9
FPPG (FD) 47.3 54.8 7.4 51.9 4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 27.6 29.3 1.7 29.2 1.6

Harden is easily the best shooting guard in this slate. Granted, he’s always the top shooting guard overall, but I’m talking in a points per dollar sense as well. He has been terrific over his last ten games, averaging 54.8 fantasy points in 40.9 minutes per contest. As long as this game stays reasonably close, Harden could see upwards of 40 minutes against the Sixers. Yeah, I’ll take my odds in that matchup.

Dwight Howard
dwight-howard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,900 Salary:$8,000
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.12
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.7 35.2 2.5 34.9 2.2
FPPG (FD) 34.1 36.3 2.2 34.7 0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 15.3 17.4 2.1 17.2 1.9

If you can’t find a way to get up to James Harden, but you still want some exposure to the Rockets, Howard is a viable alternative. I actually don’t mind playing the two together, although that’s a risky strategy for cash games. Howard should absolutely dominate a Sixers’ team that is ranked dead last in both rebounding differential and blocked shots allowed. Philadelphia will also be without Jahlil Okafor. Howard should be able to get whatever he wants down low.

Secondary Plays

Trevor Ariza
trevor-ariza-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,300 Salary:$6,200
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.70 FP/Min:0.76
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.2 38.6 3.4 38.6 3.4
FPPG (FD) 24.7 30.3 5.6 29.4 4.7
TO-Adj. Usage 13.4 12.7 -0.7 11.9 -1.5

Ariza always grades out as a nice play at small forward, but I rarely end up using him. He’s just one of those players that has burned too many bridges over the years. He is worth a look as a mid-range small forward tonight against the Sixers, who are ranked 29th against the position this season. Ariza has been playing a ton of minutes recently, averaging 38.6 over his last five games.

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 8-55 — Home: 5-25 — Last 10: 0-10

The Sixers have lost each of their last 12 games and own the NBA’s worst record at 8-55. They are sizable underdogs tonight at home against the Rockets. While a blowout is possible, the Sixers are projected to score 104 points, which is actually 7.5 points above their scoring average.

The Rockets play at a very fast pace and have one of the worst defenses in the entire NBA. They are ranked 22nd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Jahlil Okafor has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, which should mean extended playing time for both Nerlens Noel and Jerami Grant.

Elite Plays

Jerami Grant
jerami-grant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$5,200
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.78 FP/Min:0.82
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.5 30.8 4.3 35.8 9.3
FPPG (FD) 20.6 20.8 0.2 25.2 4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 13.7 11.5 -2.2 11.1 -2.5

Grant has underwhelmed in his last couple of starts, but don’t let that cloud your judgment. He still offers good value for the price with Jahlil Okafor out. He also draws a much better matchup this time around, as the Rockets are ranked dead last against power forwards this season. Tonight is the night to hop back on Grant when everyone else is jumping ship.

Secondary Plays

Ishmael Smith
ishmael-smith-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$6,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.99 FP/Min:1.05
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.4 31.8 4.4 35.7 8.3
FPPG (FD) 27.1 29.4 2.3 35.1 8.1
TO-Adj. Usage 22.0 20.8 -1.2 21.4 -0.6

Smith has been playing better recently, averaging 35.1 fantasy points in 35.7 minutes over his last five games. His price is still sub-$7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. There are some better plays dollar for dollar, but Smith could be worth a look in tournaments. I should point out that Patrick Beverley has been a shutdown defender recently. The Rockets are ranked first against point guards over the last three weeks.

Nerlens Noel
nerlens-noel-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,100 Salary:$6,100
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.94 FP/Min:1.00
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.8 25.9 -2.9 23.2 -5.6
FPPG (FD) 27.0 25.7 -1.4 22.4 -4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 14.0 15.8 1.8 18.0 4.1

Noel is in play for two reasons. First off, he is a little too cheap across the industry. Second, and more importantly, Jahlil Okafor is not going to play tonight. In eight games without Okafor this season, Noel is averaging 28.6 fantasy points per game. He goes from being a bystander on offense (watching Okafor in the post) to running the pick and roll with Smith as the main weapon when Okafor is out. My main concern here is potential foul trouble against Dwight Howard.

Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM

Memphis Grizzlies Boston Celtics
memphisnba Vegas Total 208.0 bostonnba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Sprd 11.0 Vegas Sprd -11.0
Team Proj. 98.5 Team Proj. 109.5
Team Pace 95.40 Team Pace 101.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Mario Chalmers Tony Allen P.J. Hairston Matt Barnes JaMychal Green Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger
Opp. Season 1 8 20 26 27 Opp. Season 7 4 13 10 3
Last 3 Weeks 11 11 23 21 26 Last 3 Weeks 3 12 14 9 17

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 38-25 — Road: 15-15 — Last 10: 7-3

The Grizzlies have won seven of their last ten games, including an incredible victory over the Cavaliers in a game where they were without their four best players. They are listed as 11-point underdogs tonight against the Celtics. The Grizzlies are only projected to score 98.5 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board tonight.

The Celtics have been tough defensively this season. Their pace of play hurts their statistics, but they are still ranked 13th in points allowed per game and 12th in fantasy points allowed per game. Mike Conley has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. Zach Randolph is also expected to miss tonight’s game, while Matt Barnes should be back in the lineup.

Elite Plays

Mario Chalmers
mario-chalmers-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,300 Salary:$5,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.92 FP/Min:0.97
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 22.5 24.9 2.4 29.9 7.4
FPPG (FD) 20.6 23.9 3.3 29.7 9.1
TO-Adj. Usage 19.0 20.6 1.5 19.6 0.6

Chalmers and the other backups took down the Cavaliers the other night in Cleveland. They will look to do the same thing to the Celtics tonight. Even though Boston is tough on point guards, Chalmers is a must play for me in cash games. The Grizzlies don’t have any other point guards on the roster and Chalmers could see upwards of 40 minutes tonight. Chalmers is a very productive player when on the floor, averaging 0.92 FP/min this season.

Matt Barnes
matt-barnes-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,800 Salary:$5,100
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.81
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.2 32.2 5.0 30.5 3.3
FPPG (FD) 20.4 21.8 1.3 19.3 -1.1
TO-Adj. Usage 13.8 14.1 0.2 14.3 0.5

Barnes will be back in the lineup tonight and with Mike Conley and Zach Randolph both out, his usage should go way up against the Celtics. He draws a decent matchup against a Boston team that is ranked 20th against small forwards and 26th against power forwards this season. Barnes is a viable play in all league formats tonight.

JaMychal Green
jamychal-green-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,600 Salary:$4,500
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.80 FP/Min:0.84
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 16.0 22.8 6.8 22.7 6.7
FPPG (FD) 12.8 21.0 8.3 21.5 8.7
TO-Adj. Usage 14.3 15.6 1.3 16.4 2.1

After Chris Andersen and Zach Randolph were ruled out the other night, Green became close to a must play against the Cavaliers. After his 48 fantasy point outing, his ownership will be through the roof tonight. I am going to have a hard time fading him here, especially since the Celtics have struggled to contain opposing big men all season.

Secondary Plays

Lance Stephenson
lance-stephenson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,400 Salary:$4,400
Position:SG Position:SF
FP/Min:0.70 FP/Min:0.76
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 17.1 23.5 6.4 22.5 5.4
FPPG (FD) 12.0 21.3 9.3 22.0 10.0
TO-Adj. Usage 14.3 20.2 5.9 22.0 7.7

Tony Allen may be the more popular choice from Memphis, but he had a career game. A repeat performance is highly unlikely. Stephenson could certainly replicate his 30 fantasy point outing against the Cavaliers, though. With all of the injuries to the Grizzlies, he should see 25+ minutes tonight against the Celtics.

Boston Celtics

Record: 38-26 — Home: 22-10 — Last 10: 7-3

The Celtics have won seven of their last ten games and are now 38-26 overall. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Grizzlies, but Vegas doesn’t seem to mind. The Celtics are projected to score 109.5 points, which is the fifth highest team total on the board.

The Grizzlies have a solid defense overall, but they are missing three of their best defenders tonight in Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, and Zach Randolph. The Celtics have a high team total for a reason and they should have no problem scoring points tonight. Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk are both questionable for this game. Tyler Zeller and Amir Johnson would see a nice boost if they are both ruled out.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Isaiah Thomas
isaiah-thomas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,100 Salary:$7,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.09 FP/Min:1.17
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.4 32.9 0.5 32.0 -0.4
FPPG (FD) 35.3 39.3 4.0 35.9 0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 25.9 27.9 1.9 26.5 0.6

If all of the Celtics’ bigs are active tonight, Thomas will be the only player on my radar here. He has been in great form recently, averaging 39.8 fantasy points over his last ten games. He is a little too expensive to use on FanDuel, but is sitting at a very playable $7,300 on DraftKings. He also sees a small boost with Mike Conley out, as Mario Chalmers isn’t as good of a defender.

Detroit Pistons at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM

Detroit Pistons Dallas Mavericks
detroitnba Vegas Total 204.5 dallasnba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Sprd 2.5 Vegas Sprd -2.5
Team Proj. 101.0 Team Proj. 103.5
Team Pace 97.50 Team Pace 96.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia
Opp. Season 13 9 8 27 15 Opp. Season 10 11 3 13 8
Last 3 Weeks 12 17 3 16 29 Last 3 Weeks 5 10 15 5 5

Detroit Pistons

Record: 32-31 — Road: 13-20 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pistons have lost five of their last ten games and currently sit a half game behind the Bulls for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Tonight the Pistons head to Dallas to take on the Mavericks. They are only projected to score 101 points, which is the sixth lowest team total on the board.

The Mavericks are a mediocre matchup for fantasy production. On the season, they are 16th or 17th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Detroit is expected to be without Stanley Johnson and Anthony Tolliver again, which means Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris will continue to log heavy minutes.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond
andre-drummond-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$7,600
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.21 FP/Min:1.29
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.4 32.5 -0.9 30.8 -2.6
FPPG (FD) 40.4 40.9 0.5 39.9 -0.4
TO-Adj. Usage 20.5 19.4 -1.1 20.3 -0.2

Drummond is fairly priced on FanDuel, but it’s almost not fair that he is only $7,600 on DraftKings. The Mavericks had been tough on centers earlier in the season, but they have really dipped in that stat over the last few weeks, allowing the second most fantasy points to the position. Zaza Pachulia is a competent defender, but his minutes have been way down recently. Drummond should have another big outing tonight and is an elite play in all league formats.

Secondary Plays

Tobias Harris
tobias-harris-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,800 Salary:$6,000
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.81 FP/Min:0.87
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.0 33.7 0.7 34.7 1.7
FPPG (FD) 26.7 28.2 1.5 27.3 0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 16.4 18.1 1.7 17.4 1.0

Harris continues to benefit from the injuries to Stanley Johnson and Anthony Tolliver. Over his last five games, he is averaging 27.3 fantasy points in 34.7 minutes per contest. He should see minutes in the mid to upper-30s tonight against the Mavericks, who are ranked 27th against power forwards this season.

Dallas Mavericks

Record: 33-31 — Home: 19-14 — Last 10: 4-6

The Mavericks have lost six of their last ten games and have fallen to seventh place in the Western Conference standings. They are only 2.5-point favorites tonight against the Pistons at home. The Mavericks are projected to score 103.5 points, which is below the average team total of the 18 teams in action tonight.

The Pistons have an above average defense. On the season, they are ranked 11th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. David Lee has been a popular value play recently, but now could be the time to jump off board. If he sees 20 minutes (which isn’t guaranteed), he basically needs to produce 1.25 FP/min to reach value at his current price. His efficiency is going to be tough to sustain over the long haul.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Dirk Nowitzki
dirk-nowitzki-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,700 Salary:$5,800
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.96 FP/Min:1.02
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.0 32.0 1.0 28.0 -3.0
FPPG (FD) 29.7 30.5 0.8 28.3 -1.4
TO-Adj. Usage 21.7 22.4 0.7 24.3 2.6

Nowitzki is strictly a DraftKings play tonight. It’s not the best matchup in the world, but $5,800 is awfully enticing. Using DraftKings scoring, Nowitzki has topped the 30 fantasy point mark six times in his last ten games. He has a good chance to reach that mark again tonight, which is about what he needs to reach value.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious