NBA Preseason: Monday, October 3rd
If you are thinking that NBA doesn’t start for a few more weeks you might be confused why you are reading an NBA DFS article on October 3, 2016. The answer is that NBA does in fact start at the end of this month, but NBA DFS has already started. Well, preseason NBA DFS, but close enough! Things actually kicked off last Saturday with a two-game slate but tonight we get a much better six-game slate.
Before we dive into the picks, I need to mention a few things. NBA teams are allowed to invite 20 players to training camp. They are allowed to use all 20 players during the games. That’s different from the 14-player max during the regular season (with two inactive for games). What that typically leads to is teams playing somewhere around 16 players with minutes ranging from 8-20. What you will typically see is starters play the first six-to-eight minutes of the first quarter, the final five-to-six minutes of the second quarter and then possibly six-to-eight minutes in the third. That adds up to roughly 20 minutes from a starter as opposed to 30-36 during the regular season. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have adjusted pricing to account for the lower minutes. You can generally buy superstars and starters for about 25% less than you would pay in the regular season.
That leaves an interesting conundrum. Let’s use an example from last Saturday’s slate. Kevin Durant was projected for less than 20 minutes. On the other hand, Justin Anderson was expected to play extensively for the Mavericks. Since it wasn’t hard to fit Durant, you had to ask yourself, “Can Durant be more effective in 15-20 minutes than Anderson in 20-25?” The end result was Durant scoring 17.3 FanDuel points and Anderson scoring 26.5. Hopefully you played both, but it’s a good example of how mixing “stars and scrubs” gives your roster both safety and upside. You’ll have several similar decisions to make tonight.
Anyways, we have a lot to cover for tonight’s six-game slate, so let’s dive right into it. The format I’m using is Green Light, Yellow Light, Red Light. The Green Lights are my preferred plays while Yellow is just advising some caution. I didn’t categorize every player on every team though. Mostly, I’m trying to highlight the best value options. Once you find the value guys you want to play, I recommend filling in with some superstar-type players to give your lineup a nice floor. After all, you don’t necessarily think Jamal Murray is going to outscore Damian Lillard, right?
Milwaukee at Chicago
Milwaukee
Projected Starters: Michael Carter-Williams, Rashad Vaughn, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, Miles Plumlee
Green Light: Rashad Vaughn, Malcolm Brogdon
Yellow Light: Greg Monroe, Michael Beasley , Bucks other starters, Matthew Dellavedova
Red Light: Thon Maker
Quick Analysis: The Bucks spent their offseason trying to add three-point shooting after ranking last in attempts last season. Matthew Dellavedova, Mirza Teletovic, Jason Terry and Malcolm Brogdon are all players who could possibly fill that void. The big problem here for preseason DFS is the Bucks simply don’t have enough players sitting out tonight. We’ll get to several other situations that make more sense. I would mostly play just Vaughn, Brogdon or no one at all.
Chicago
Projected Starters: Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Robin Lopez
Green Light: Denzel Valentine, Bobby Portis, Nikola Mirotic
Yellow Light: Spencer Dinwiddie, Jerian Grant, Isaiah Canaan
Red Light: Bulls starters
Quick Analysis: Unlike other situations tonight, Coach Hoiberg was very clear about his plans tonight. He said, “Our plan with Dwyane is to play him between 10 and 12 minutes, all in the first half. My plan with Jimmy [Butler] is to play him some in the first half and then most likely sit him in the second. We’ll see how it all transpires. We’ll see how Rondo and [Robin] Lopez are doing at halftime and we’ll make a determination as to whether they play in the second half or we just let the young guys play.
That makes it pretty easy for us from a DFS perspective. We are avoiding Wade, Rondo, and Butler (unless you think they can be effective in limited minutes) and hoping the young guys get a long look. Rookie Denzel Valentine has played a 70-30 split between wing and point guard. He should have the ball in his hands plenty tonight. Nikola Mirotic could actually start ahead of Taj Gibson (Hoiberg wouldn’t say) but either way he’ll end up playing 15-20 minutes whether off the bench or starting. If he ends up starting I would downgrade him to a yellow light here. Lastly, I’m excited to see what second-year player Bobby Portis can do. He flashed his skills some during the regular season last year. He’s certainly not a name DFS players are unfamiliar with. He’ll have relatively high ownership.
Orlando at Memphis
Orlando
Projected Starters: C.J. Watson, Evan Fournier, Mario Hezonja, Serge Ibaka (?) Nikola Vucevic
Green Light: Mario Hezonja
Yellow Light: D.J. Augustin, Magic Starters
Red Light: Elfrid Payton (out), Aaron Gordon (out), Jodie Meeks (out), Serge Ibaka
Quick Analysis: The Magic offer one of the more difficult situations to handicap on this slate. New Coach Frank Vogel has said he wants to push the pace so there could be some fantasy goodness in this game. The big problem is trying to find it. Last year with the Pacers, Vogel used 16 different players in his first preseason game. He’s already said no one on the Magic will play significant minutes. That leaves me mainly targeting the thin positions. With Aaron Gordon out, Mario Hezonja should start. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll play over 20 minutes, but he has the skills to reach value in a fast-paced game.
Memphis
Projected Starters: Tony Wroten, Tony Allen (?), James Ennis, Zach Randolph, JaMychal Green
Green Light: Wade Baldwin, Troy Daniels, James Ennis, JaMychal Green
Yellow Light: Andrew Harrison, Tony Wroten
Red Light: Tony Allen, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, Vince Carter, Zach Randolph, Chandler Parsons
Quick Analysis: The Grizzlies offer up some interesting—yet unknown—DFS options tonight. As I mentioned above, the Magic plan to play at a fast pace, which could lead to either a high-scoring game or a very sloppy one. The two most interesting things here are the Point Guard and Power Forward/Center rotations.
Let’s start with PG first. Mike Conley may or may not play. If he doesn’t play, Wroten will draw the start, but he’s certainly being pushed by Wade Baldwin and Andrew Harrison. Baldwin was the 17th overall pick out of Vanderbilt. He’s still really raw and needs to work on his jumper, but opportunity is what we want, and he should get the chance tonight. If Conley sits, and Wroten starts, I’ll also have interest in Andrew Harrison but if all that doesn’t happen, my interest is much lower. Of course, the easy thing to do here would be avoid the unknowns and play Tony Wroten. His minutes could be somewhat limited but he’s certainly produced in limited minutes in the past.
The other thing to keep an eye on is the rotation at Power Forward/Center. Marc Gasol is likely to sit, Zach Randolph could sit as well, Brandan Wright sat out Saturday’s scrimmage, Jarell Martin is rehabbing a foot injury, and Deyonta Davis is still weeks away from playing. That could potentially open up big minutes for JaMychal Green as he can play both PF and C. If all those players mentioned are out Green becomes almost a must-play
Charlotte at Dallas
Charlotte
Projected Starters: Ramon Sessions, Nicolas Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marvin Williams, Roy Hibbert
Green Light: Ramon Sessions, Frank Kaminsky, Roy Hibbert
Yellow Light: Treveon Graham, Aaron Harrison
Red Light: Kemba Walker, Cody Zeller, Brian Roberts
Quick Analysis: It feels dirty even typing this but Roy Hibbert might be in line for heavy minutes tonight with Cody Zeller out. The Hornets won’t commit to an opening-night starter at Center but Hibbert can certainly win that job with a solid outing tonight. The Hornets are also likely to be thin at PG with both Walker and Roberts out. That leaves a path for plenty of minutes for Ramon Sessions. Frank Kaminsky is someone who had a small role last regular season but looks to increase it with his play this preseason. That starts with a strong showing tonight. Lastly, Treveon Graham fills a position of need for the Hornets. If Kidd-Gilchrist only plays limited minutes Graham is the only other true Small Forward on the roster. That doesn’t mean he’ll soak up all the minutes though as Kaminsky and Williams can also play the position.
Dallas
Projected Starters: J.J. Barea, Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes, Quincy Acy, Dwight Powell
Green Light: Dwight Powell, Justin Anderson
Yellow Light: Seth Curry, Harrison Barnes, Nicolas Brussino, Dorian Finney-Smith
Red Light: Devin Harris, Salah Mejri, Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams
Quick Analysis: We’ve already seen this Mavericks team play a game so we have some idea what their rotation will look like. The only difference between tonight and last Saturday is that Wesley Matthews will make his preseason debut. Harris, Nowitzki, Merji, Bogut,and Williams remain out tonight. The return of Matthews is sure to eat into Seth Curry’s minutes as well as Brussino’s. The safe bets here are Dwight Powell and Justin Anderson. On Saturday, Anderson scored 26.5 FDP and Powell scored 20.9. Each of them have a similar outlook tonight.
Denver at Toronto
Denver
Projected Starters: Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris, Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried, Nikola Jokic
Green Light: Jamal Murray
Yellow Light: Juancho Hernangomez, Malik Beasley, Jusuf Nurkic, Nikola Jokic
Red Light: Darrell Arthur, Wilson Chandler (limited minutes)
Quick Analysis: The Nuggets are in the same situation as several other teams on this slate. The starters are likely to soak up close to 20 minutes and not enough players are ruled out. I badly want to play Jamal Murray in this spot. He’s from Canada but played College last season at Kentucky where he averaged 20 PPG. The reason Murray isn’t a top-play tonight is the fact that the Nuggets still have plenty of other guards in their rotation.
As far as the Yellow light plays above, I’m not necessarily recommending that you play Hernangomez over a more-involved reserve such as Jokic. I’m just mentioning that he’s an option. Hernangomez is a hustle player who can get you some rebounds and put-backs but probably not a whole lot more.
Toronto
Projected Starters: Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll, Jared Sullinger, Jonas Valanciunas
Green Light: Norman Powell, Pascal Siakam
Yellow Light: Raptors Starters, Cory Joseph,
Red Light: Non-Guaranteed Contract Players (Drew Crawford, Fred VanVleet, Jarrod Uthoff, E.J. Singler, Brady Heslip, and Yanick Moreira)
Quick Analysis: We’ve already seen this Raptors team play on Saturday night so we have some idea how their rotation will shake out. If the second game of last preseason is any indicator we’ll see the Raptors decrease minutes for their starters. That doesn’t crush any value that DeRozan, Lowry, and Sullinger have but it certainly downgrades it just a bit.
Where I’ll be looking here is at Norman Powell and Pascal Siakam. In Saturday’s game Powell played 19 minutes while Siakam played 21. If you played NBA DFS last season you are probably familiar with Powell who picked up a few starts towards the end of the season. The more interesting development here is Pascal Siakam getting the first crack at reserve center minutes ahead of Lucas Nogueira. Siakam had had nine points, eight rebounds, one assist, two blocks and a steal in his 21 minutes. He still has a long way to go if he wants to fill the void left by Bismack Biyombo’s departure but a strong preseason would go a long way towards earning a role.
San Antonio at Phoenix
San Antonio
Projected Starters: Dejounte Murray, Jonathan Simmons, Kawhi Leonard, David Lee, Dewayne Dedmon
Green Light: Dejounte Murray, Jonathan Simmons, Kyle Anderson
Yellow Light: Dewayne Dedmon, everyone else who traveled (see blow)
Red Light: LaMarcus Aldridge, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Patty Mills, Danny Green, Pau Gasol
Quick Analysis: The Spurs decided to make this slate interesting by leaving six veterans behind in San Antonio. LaMarcus Aldridge, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Patty Mills, Danny Green and marquee signee Pau Gasol did not even make the trip. Somehow, old men David Lee and Joel Anthony weren’t able to get the veteran treatment though. Anyways, that leaves us with all kinds of value but some it may be fool’s gold. Click on this link for the Spurs’ depth chart tonight. The players highlighted in yellow are on non-guaranteed contracts. As you can see, there is a pretty clear path to all the minutes Dejounte Murray can handle. He was the Spurs’ first-round draft pick this offseason. He’s the closest thing to a must-play on this slate.
I also don’t mind Jonathan Simmons, Dwayne Dedmon, and Kyle Anderson in this game. You could even convince me to play Kawhi Leonard but I suspect he’ll be done at halftime. That probably leaves him with something like 14 minutes tonight. The rest of the guys get “GPP-only” status as we have no idea how the minutes will shake out.
Phoenix
Projected Starters: Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, T.J. Warren, Jared Dudley, Tyson Chandler
Green Light: Dragan Bender, Marquese Chriss, Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, T.J. Warren, Devin Booker
Yellow Light: Other Suns Starters, Tyler Ulis
Red Light: P.J. Tucker
Quick Analysis: With the Spurs resting their starters this becomes a cake matchup for the Suns’s starters. The only question is how much they’ll play. I’m making Knight and Bledsoe Green Light plays for that reason but they are on the border of Yellow Light based on the chance for an early hook. I also have no issue with guys like T.J. Warren, and Devin Booker. They’ll be playing minutes against guys who probably won’t even make the Spurs’ roster.
Lastly, I’m intrigued by Dragan Bender and Marquese Bender. When P.J. Tucker had back surgery this offseason it opened a void at Small Forward. T.J. Warren was probably already looking at 20 minutes per game anyways but now he steps in as the starter. What the Suns need to find is someone who can play backup SF. The two ideal candidates are Dragan Bender and Marquese Bender. They are green light plays above but they aren’t 100% safe. They could almost be yellow light as they are more suited towards GPP.
Utah at Portland
Utah
Projected Starters: George Hill, Gordon Hayward, Joe Johnson, Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert
Green Light: No One
Yellow Light: Jazz Starters, Jeff Withey,
Red Light: Alec Burks (out)
Quick Analysis: The Jazz have never been a team flowing with fantasy goodness. They play excellent defense, generally try to slow things down, and have trouble finding offense at times. The Jazz hope the offseason of George Hill will correct some problems on offense but it remains to be seen what his effect will be. For tonight’s purposes it’s simply too hard to predict where the minutes will fall. I’m fine completely fading the Jazz but if you force me to pick someone it would be Jeff Withey. The guys who need a strong preseason to solidify their role are Withey, Chris Johnson, Raul Neto, and Joel Bolomboy. Of those four, Withey is the only one I have any confidence in.
Portland
Projected Starters: Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Evan Turner, Al Farouq Aminu, Mason Plumlee
Green Light: Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum
Yellow Light: Moe Harkless, Allen Crabbe
Red Light: Festus Ezeli, Noah Vonleh, Ed Davis
Quick Analysis: The key questions for the Blazers are these: Will Evan Turner actually draw the start at small forward? If so, will he play well? What roles will Allen Crabbe and Moe Harkless have if they’re coming off the bench? How will Stotts divvy up minutes at the center spot, considering he’s got about a trillion guys competing for them? What, if anything, will injury-rehabbing guys like Meyers Leonard and Festus Ezeli bring to the table? How will Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum share primary playmaking duties? Those questions are courtesy of the Blazers’ Edge SB Nation site.
In general, my interest here revolves around playing guys like Lillard and McCollum that I know can produce. Even if they are limited to 20 minutes or so I think they can match the value options at their positions.