NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 11
Two prevailing themes this week are a potential shootout in Detroit, and the fact that a large amount of value exists, without a large number of glaringly elite plays to spend the savings on. Between just Derek Carr ($7,700), Charcandrick West ($7,100), Stevie Johnson ($6,500), and Danny Amendola ($6,100) we gain enough lineup construction flexibility to go in several directions when paying up. Yet, due to matchup factors, few studs stand out – particularly ominous are the top-tier wideouts’ shadows.
Splurging on a high-end option like Todd Gurley ($9,200) or Rob Gronkowski ($8,400) is easier to do, and players that can explode despite poor matchups are rarely bad tournament plays when rostered at moderate-to-low ownership. Those conditions balance well with the more highly-owned, but inexpensive players that are likely to erupt in strong matchups, like West against San Diego’s league-worst run defense (-52.1). This week we’ll look at mostly mid-to-low-cost options that can glue that chalky value together with those expensive lineup-differentiators.
The Raiders and Lions are on everyone’s mind, for good reason. There are several plays examined below, but one more that deserves mention is Latavius Murray ($6,800). The world expects the game to shoot out on both sides, but what’s the next-most-likely scenario if it doesn’t? Who will score the favorite’s touchdowns if they’re not thrown by Carr? A game-stack with Lions’ passing game pieces on one side, and Murray on the other, still gains exposure, but a bit differently than most lineups will.
On with the Week 11 FanDuel tournament picks.
QB Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions, $7,000 (+$100 from Week 10)
Both quarterbacks in this game, which is projected to be Week 11’s highest-scoring (49), make for worthy plays in tournaments and cash games. They will be relatively popular, but a chalky quarterback is not as big of a drag in GPPs as other positions are. With the game also expected to be close (Raiders are one-point road favorites), it’s less likely that either side will take a run-heavy, clock-grinding approach. Each team ranks in the top-10 for most points allowed per snap, and we will want to gain as much exposure to this game as we can get.
Stafford, mercifully through the brutal part of his schedule, drops back 37.4 times per game (ninth-most). He gets an Oakland defense that has faced the most pass attempts on average (42.6), and sports the fourth-lowest coverage grade (-21.5). Despite recent hiccups, the Raiders’ run defense ranks 16th (+9.0), and the Lions probably won’t bother with their toothless rushing “attack” (-2.0; 29th). While he may not equal his Week 6 explosion against the visiting Bears (34.9 FanDuel points), the matchup sets up similarly as far as their opponent’s strengths and (mostly) weaknesses.
QB Mark Sanchez – Philadelphia Eagles, $6,400 (+$900)
Sanchez is not a good quarterback, but we’ve seen several bad Eagles signal-callers produce due to sheer volume – including Sanchez himself. The last two weeks that he started for them at the end of 2014, he had 86 attempts, 666 yards, four touchdowns, and was the fifth-highest-scoring fantasy quarterback. Using the no-huddle on more than 70 percent of their snaps, Philadelphia is again cranking their pace after an early-season slowdown. They are averaging 79.2 plays per game since Week 4, which is 6.5-per-game more than the league-leading Texans’ seasonal pace.
Despite close games, Tampa Bay has been playing faster during the last three weeks, with a 24.5-seconds-per-snap rate that would rank as third-quickest for the season. They also have been holding running backs to 3.2 yards per carry over the last month. Although the Eagles will test them with DeMarco Murray, the path of least resistance is clearly Tampa Bay’s 31st-ranked pass coverage (-29.3). The absence of Ryan Mathews, who is targeted on a smaller percentage of snaps (10.9) than Murray (12.4) and Darren Sproles (18.1), should also juice Sanchez’s volume a bit.
RB LeGarrette Blount – New England Patriots, $7,300 (+$400)
One look at New England’s Week 2 game in Buffalo, with their 40 points scored, 59 passes, and just 15 rushing attempts, and we imagine that Monday night’s game will look similar. But these are not the same teams that they were two months ago. Blount was coming off a suspension and played just seven snaps. Dion Lewis saw 73 plays, Julian Edelman got 19 targets, and the Patriots’ offensive tackles were healthy. The Bills had just held Colts running backs to 3.4 yards per carry and stud defensive tackle Kyle Williams was healthy.
Blount has averaged 22.7 touches over the last three weeks, starting before New England lost Lewis. Since the Week 2 Bills game, he has seven touchdowns and is tied for an NFL-high 27 red zone carries. Buffalo’s run defense is currently better in reputation than reality. Their PFF grade ranks 21st, they have allowed a middling 4.1 yards per carry on the season, and since Williams was lost three games ago, they are averaging 4.5 yards and a rushing touchdown surrendered per game. Blount getting his second touchdown called back by penalty hurt last week, but that, along with a pass-first expectation against the Buffalo, should keep Blount’s ownership level palatable in a quietly-strong spot.
RB Jonathan Stewart – Carolina Panthers, $7,000 (+$400)
Stewart is averaging 18.8 rushing attempts for the season and 22 per game in his last five contests. Over that span, he is averaging 88.4 rushing yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game, and his league-leading 24 red zone carries are six more than the second-place total. He is getting 86.6 percent of the Panthers’ backfield handoffs, and Cam Newton rushing attempts per game are 7.8, versus 10.8 in the first four weeks. Newton and Mike Tolbert will still poach the occasional touchdown from Stewart, but the low-ceiling stigma attached to Carolina’s workhorse is no longer accurate.
The Panthers are favored by 7.5 points, and considering that they average slightly more points and snaps at home, not to mention a lot more no-huddle (33.2 percent versus 6.5 percent), the game script points to another large workload for Stewart. With Carolina’s implied total north of 26 points, his ceiling is high as well. Washington allows 118.8 rushing yards per game to running backs, their run defense ranks 26th (-21.9), and since Week 3 they are giving up 5.4 yards per carry. Newton, who averages 25.8 FanDuel points at home, is always a tournament option, and this week his running back is as well.
RB Darren McFadden – Dallas Cowboys, $6,800 (-$200)
Tony Romo’s return completely rearranges the dynamic surrounding the Cowboys on both sides of ball. He not only puts their passing game back on the map, but increased offensive efficiency makes them far dicier to start players against. They should finally be able to execute their ball-control game plan. The one thing that isn’t changing, however, is McFadden will get fed. Even in Week 10, when they ran just 54 plays, McFadden got 20 touches. He’s averaging 26.3 handoffs and catches during the last four games.
The Dolphins’ run defense ranks 27th (-24.1) and, despite holding Eagles rushers in check last week, they are allowing 4.6 yards per carry and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game in their last three. On the season, they have allowed the third-most rushing yards and fantasy points per game to running backs. Although Dallas is a road underdog, Miami is favored by just one point. A close game script and McFadden’s heavy passing game involvement (5.2 targets per game since Week 5) set his floor high. Romo’s return will keep McFadden’s buzz low, as the rising offensive tide lifts his ceiling.
RB Frank Gore – Indianapolis Colts, $6,600 (-$100 from Week 9)
After an extra week to better acclimate to new coordinator Rob Chudzinski’s offense, and for the 32-year-old Gore to rest his weary bones, the Colts are ready to ride him while Andrew Luck is sidelined. Gore already saw 31 looks (handoffs plus targets) in Chudzinski’s first game calling plays, and totaled 16.7 FanDuel points against a tougher run defense matchup with the Broncos (+65.3; fourth-best) than what he’ll face in Atlanta (+6.4; 16th). Despite being five-point underdogs, Gore remains a tournament option since he’ll remain involved even if the Colts are trailing.
The Falcons surrender the most running back receptions on a per-game basis (7.6), mostly due to coverage-deficient linebacker and safety play. They also give up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position. With Matt Hasselbeck again behind center (Gore averaged 22 touches in his previous starts), and a conservative, tight-end-heavy game plan likely on tap, Chuck Pagano will be able to make good on his proclamation that the reigns are off of Gore’s workload. At moderate ownership and cost, he checks several boxes this week.
WR A.J. Green – Cincinnati Bengals, $8,200 (-$100)
While this play is not for the faint of heart, at least it involves explosive talent and a high game total (48). Week 11’s fourth-most expensive receiver, Green should be one of its lightest-owned wideouts. His price dropped only $100 after the Bengals’ debacle on national television, when Green’s fumble ended an undefeated season bid. When people pay up, it will rarely be for Green, especially since he will be shadowed by Patrick Peterson, PFF’s seventh-best coverage cornerback (+8.0).
The owner of a skimpy 56.6 quarterback-rating-against, Peterson has bounced back well from a rough 2014. But despite shadowing often, he has rarely been tested (9.9 cover snaps per target; 73rd-most of 74 cornerbacks). Of the 16 touchdowns he’s allowed over the last three seasons, 15 have come against receivers that were six-feet or taller (Green is 6’4”). The Cardinals blitz on 44 percent of dropbacks (third most), Andy Dalton sports a 124.4 quarterback rating against it, and Green is his most-targeted teammate against extra rushers. He is 22-of-25, for 366 yards, and three touchdowns, with a +8.0 PFF grade, throwing to Green when blitzed.
WR Calvin Johnson – Detroit Lions, $8,100 (+$100)
Assuming Detroit’s passing game will be the principal way that they score their 24 implied points, pairing Johnson with Stafford ensures sweet-spot exposure to the impending fantasy goodness. Johnson’s 19 targets over his last two contests are his largest two-game total since Week 3 and Week 4, and his salary is down $500 since November began. He will be popular, but with a still-healthy price tag and without a blow-up game in over a month, it will be palatable.
Johnson will run plenty of routes against Oakland’s only cornerback with a positive coverage grade, T.J. Carrie (+0.7; 45th of 111 qualifiers). Not that Carrie is an overly daunting matchup, but he does not shadow and Johnson will still see enough of the rest of the Raiders’ secondary to take advantage of the practice-squad-level coverage that’s caused them to allow 195.2 yards per game to wideouts (third-most). Golden Tate ($6,200) has a similarly plum matchup and is interesting as well, but with fewer salary cap concerns this week, paying up for a higher ceiling is preferable.
WR Eric Decker – New York Jets, $7,000 (+$200)
Decker has scored in every game he’s played in this year but one, when he rang up 94 yards to soften the blow. His seven touchdowns are one behind Odell Beckham Jr. for the league-lead among wideouts, and he’s done it with the 29th-most targets at his position. Yet, after seeing 6.5 targets per game in his first eight games, he is averaging 9.8 in his last four. He and Brandon Marshall account for 49.5 percent of Jets targets, and that’s with Decker missing a full game and averaging 82.1 percent of snaps in the other eight.
New York’s running backs are averaging 21.8 attempts, 53.8 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game in their last four contents (2.5 yards per carry). They get a Texans run defense that ranks sixth (+22.8) and has allowed 3.8 yards per carry if the Week 7 debacle in Miami is removed. The Jets will need to throw, and Decker has a plus matchup against 5-foot-9, 179-pound, 84-snap “veteran” slot cornerback fill-in Charles James. With Marshall set to face improving first-round rookie cornerback Kevin Johnson, Decker has the better matchup and price ($900 cheaper).
WR Michael Crabtree – Oakland Raiders, $6,500 (+$100)
Crabtree was heavily owned last week, and he disappointed newfound investors to the tune of 55 yards on four catches. Jumping back off of his bandwagon will be a mistake, as he should return to a workload that more resembles the 10.7 targets, 6.7 catches, 91 yards, 1.3 touchdowns, and 20.4 FanDuel points per game compiled over his prior three contests. While the Raiders may find some ground-based success against a Lions’ run defense (+15.9; 12th-best) that allows 4.2 yards per carry (13th-most), the matchup is Week 11’s likeliest to turn into a shootout.
Detroit’s only quality cornerback, Darius Slay (+5.8 coverage grade; 13th-best of 110 qualifiers), is projected to shadow Amari Cooper, or at the very least, cover him on more than half of Oakland’s snaps. That leaves Crabtree to tear into second-year, two-game starter Nevin Lawson when he’s lined up outside. Lawson has graded negatively in both of his starts (-0.8). On the 31 percent of his routes in the slot, Crabtree will be in sixth-round rookie Quandre Diggs’ questionable coverage (-1.1). If we want a piece of the Raiders’ passing game this week, and we do, saving $700 and avoiding Slay is the way.
TE Jason Witten – Dallas Cowboys, $5,500 (-$100)
When a rusty Tony Romo needs a key first down or has to convert in the red zone, is he going to look to an almost-equally-rusty Dez Bryant, a running back to whom he’s completed three regular season passes, or his best buddy Jason Witten? Even if we avoid that Narrative Street, earlier this season Witten had 15 catches on 16 targets from Romo in less than two games, for 109 yards and two touchdowns. In seven games since then he’s averaged 6.4 targets, 4.9 catches, 47 yards, hasn’t scored again, and dropped entirely off of our radar.
While Witten doesn’t scream “two-touchdown upside,” despite doing just that in Week 1, it makes sense that Dallas will keep Romo’s dropbacks, and his receivers routes, relatively shallow as he gets re-acclimated. The Dolphins’ defense has been dusted by virtually every quality tight end that they’ve faced, from giving up 11 catches for 202 yards to Eagles’ tight ends last week, to nine Delanie Walker receptions for 97 yards in Week 6, and a healthy Gronking in between. Witten will quickly find room to work against Miami, as well as his old chemistry with Romo.
TE Eric Ebron – Detroit Lions, $5,400 (+$100)
Ebron is another moderately-priced tight end with a legitimate ceiling this week. He is playing in the game with the highest projected point total, his positional matchup is juicy, and despite his inconsistencies, is a key component of a passing attack that will be leaned on heavily. Ebron only played about half of Detroit’s snaps in Week 10, but still tied for the team lead in targets with eight – twice as many as the next-most-targeted Lion.
While relying heavily on ‘points-against’ ratings for tight ends is risky, as their production is more touchdown-dependent and resultingly volatile, the Raiders are truly pathetic at defending the position. On a per-game basis, they allow the fifth-most catches and yards, 1.3 touchdowns, and the most fantasy points to tight ends. Kyle Rudolph’s ridiculous end zone drop prevented two Vikings tight end touchdowns last week. Ebron makes for an easy way to gain extra exposure to the shootout of the week.