NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 5
This is a really weird slate. Four of the six highest team totals come from just two games: New England at Tampa Bay (Thursday) and Dallas at Green Bay. Dallas and Green Bay are two obvious teams to like.
After that it gets a bit murky. Pittsburgh ranks third in implied point total, despite facing a one-dimensional Jacksonville defense that suggests only one player is an especially strong play (more on that later). Philadelphia ranks fourth in implied point total, which is confounding for me given how well Arizona matches up against the strengths of Philadelphia’s offense. Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz combine to amass 49 percent of the team’s target market share and 51 percent of the team’s air yardage market share. Jeffery draws a brutal matchup against the league’s best shadow cornerback in Patrick Peterson, while Ertz draws a defense ranking fourth-best in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends, after ranking first-best last season. All other teams are projected to score under 25 points.
I’ve been experimenting with how I want to write this column every week this season, and the trend continues yet again.
Note 1: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Note 2: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Chalk I’m Unwilling to Fade
Le’Veon Bell [DK: RB1, FD: RB1] – As outlined above, Bell is playing at home with the third-highest implied point total of the week. Last season Bell averaged 26.5 fantasy points per game — the most of any non-quarterback this past decade – and his usage this season hasn’t been much different. He’s averaging 21.8 carries per game (the same as last season) and 5.5 targets per game (only 1.9 fewer than last year). He ranks second in expected fantasy points per game, and leads all players in red zone opportunity market share (57 percent). He also happens to draw the best possible matchup for any running back against the “run-funnel” defense to end all “run-funnel” defenses. After giving up a combined 256 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire last week, the Jaguars rank last in Run DVOA and first in Pass DVOA. The Jaguars rank third-best in opposing passer rating and 32nd in running back yards per carry allowed. The Jaguars also rank second-best in pressures per dropback, implying plenty of quick dumpoffs to Bell.
Dez Bryant [DK: WR15, FD: WR6] – I’ve had this game marked off on my schedule since July, when I wrote this article, warning you all that Bryant is the most cornerback-sensitive wide receiver in the league. What do I mean by this? Basically, he struggles against the league’s best cornerbacks at an abnormal rate, and absolutely loses his mind against weaker cornerbacks. Unluckily for him, especially given these splits, he’s run 71.0 percent of his routes against cornerbacks who graded among the top-30 at their position last season (the highest rate in the league). He’s been held afloat by massive volume, ranking fourth in targets (37), sixth in air yards (474), first in targets inside the 10-yard-line (six), and first in end zone targets (eight). He ranks second among all receivers in expected fantasy points (73.8), and has also been the league’s least-efficient receiver by this metric, scoring 24.5 points below that. Luckily for Bryant, his brutal draw of elite cornerbacks has subsided, and he gets set to face a Green Bay Packers defense that allowed the most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers last year and ranked last in team PFF coverage grade. The three Green Bay cornerbacks playing the most snaps lined up outside (where Bryant runs 72 percent of his routes) all grade out among our 30-worst at the position. I currently have Dak Prescott as the No. 2 main slate quarterback in my rankings, and, seeing as how just he’s the fifth-highest-priced quarterback on FanDuel’s main slate, that’s pretty sexy – so I’m on him as well.
Andre Ellington [DK: RB31, FD: RB40] – Ellington has served a highly valuable role for fantasy over the past two weeks, drawing 10 carries and 21 targets over this stretch. Among all players he ranks second in targets and fifth in expected fantasy points over the past two weeks. Outside of a 53-yard touchdown run to Kareem Hunt, Philadelphia is allowing +2.0 more receiving fantasy points per game to opposing running backs than rushing fantasy points per game. With Vegas pegging Arizona as 6.5-point underdogs on the road, I think Carson Palmer goes pass-heavy once again, keeping Ellington heavily involved.
Randall Cobb [DK: WR12, FD: WR22] & Jordy Nelson [DK: WR4, FD: WR4] – I’m firmly on both of Green Bay’s wide receivers this week (as well as Geronimo Allison if Davante Adams sits), and really don’t have much to add to everything I’m sure you’ve already read as to why they’re both great plays. One thing I wanted to address was a prevailing narrative that Dallas has been far more susceptible against slot wide receivers this season. While it’s true slot wide receivers have done well, the majority of these players’ production has come on outside routes. Dallas is allowing the sixth most fantasy points per game to wide receivers on outside routes, but only 18th-most to wide receivers on routes from the slot. Still, given price, I like both wide receivers about equally.
DeVante Parker [DK: WR14, FD: WR33] & Jarvis Landry [DK: WR23, FD: WR22] – As woeful as Miami’s offense has been to start the season, Parker and Landry have both risen above it to significant degrees. Both rank top-10 at their position in expected fantasy points per game and top-20 in actual fantasy points per game. They draw a Tennessee defense allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers out of the slot, and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers on routes outside. Landry actually comes out (slightly) on top in terms of expected fantasy points, targets, and red zone usage, and draws the superior matchup and lower ownership. Despite minimal touchdown upside for Landry, he’s somehow $500 more expensive than Parker on FanDuel, but $800 cheaper on DraftKings. I’ll be leaning Landry on DraftKings and Parker on FanDuel, however, I will also be willing to pivot some off of both to greater Jay Ajayi ownership if Marcus Mariota sits.
Borderline Chalk
Jaron Brown [DK: WR41, FD: WR90] & John Brown [DK: WR 32, FD: WR32] – Jaron Brown has seen 28 targets over the past three weeks, which ranks sixth-most among all players. He played 95 percent of the snaps last week with John Brown back, proving earlier comments from Bruce Arians true – that Jaron is the starter over J.J. Nelson. Somehow, he’s minimum priced on FanDuel this week. Jaron Brown quietly ranks as PFF’s No. 35-graded wide receiver, despite frequent assertions that he is #notgood. Though that may still be true, he’s egregiously priced given recent volume.
I’m taking a dangerous stand this week, but I strongly prefer to roster either player over Larry Fitzgerald this week – though he’s not necessarily a bad play in his own right. Last season, Philadelphia allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers on routes outside, but the third-fewest to wide receivers out of the slot. This season, they’re allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers running outside routes and the 16th-most to wide receivers out of the slot. Last season, 27.6 percent of Philadelphia’s receiving fantasy points allowed came on deep targets (most in the league), but only 38.7 percent on short throws (second-fewest). Among all 100 wide receivers with at least 10 targets, both John and Jaron rank in the top-15 in average depth of target, while Fitzgerald ranks in the bottom-25. John Brown, specifically, should run the plurality of his routes against Jalen Mills, our single worst-graded cornerback last season, and the league’s most-targeted cornerback this season (by a whopping nine targets). Fitzgerald draws Patrick Robinson in the slot (for about 65 percent of his routes), who is our second-highest-graded cornerback this year.
Todd Gurley [DK: RB4, FD: RB5] – Gurley currently leads all players in expected fantasy points per game. He leads in opportunities inside the 10-yard line (14) by two and red-zone opportunities (29) by eight. He ranks second in the league in carries (86), and first on his team in targets (22). He’s also been incredibly efficient, totaling 6.8 fantasy points per game over his expectation. Seattle is no longer the fearsome run defense it once. The Seahawks have allowed two games of 115 rushing yards or more, to Carlos Hyde and DeMarco Murray this year, after surrendering zero such games last year, and rank fourth-worst in yards per carry allowed (5.12). Gurley could go low-owned in what many believe is still a tough martchup, in which case, I’ll be loading up.
Carlos Hyde [DK: RB8, FD: RB9] – Hyde ranks eighth-best among running backs in fantasy points per game, but third-best among all players in expected fantasy points per game. He is on pace for 88 targets, which is 24 more than he totaled over his three prior seasons. Despite coming into last week with an injury, Hyde still averages an impressive 74 percent of the team’s running back snaps (sixth-most), and averages 75 percent of the team’s opportunities inside the 10-yard line, which leads the league. Vegas is predicting positive gamescript for the 49ers this week (a likely rarity this season) as they’re favored by 1.5 against the Colts, who are also allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season.
Melvin Gordon [DK: RB11, FD: RB10] – Gordon practiced in full all week, and has the “squeaky wheel narrative” working in his favor this week as well. He’s seen his price drop by $1,000 on DraftKings, and like Gurley, has an apparent tough matchup that doesn’t seem so tough at all. The Giants have given up the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs this season, after surrendering the ninth-fewest a season ago. Gordon missed a quarter of play or more in Week 3 (injuring his knee) and barely practiced heading into Week 4, but ranked first among running backs in expected fantasy points through the first two weeks of the season. I’ll jump at Gordon’s reduced price-tag this week, and what also could be lower ownership than typical given a perceived poor matchup and last week’s 11-touch dud.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins [TE: TE17, FD: TE8] – ASJ feels super chalky on DraftKings this week, but it’s not without good reason. He’s seen 10 targets in his first two games back from suspension, and draws perhaps the best possible tight end matchup of the week. The Browns are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season, after allowing the second-most last season as well. So far, they’ve surrendered a combined 64.0 fantasy points to such intimidating names as Tyler Kroft, Jesse James, and Ben Watson.
Stefon Diggs [DK: WR8, FD: WR13] – For whatever reason, I’m not seeing much buzz regarding Diggs, who leads all wide receivers in fantasy points per game, and draws an excellent matchup against the Chicago Bears. Diggs had a tough matchup last week, shadowed by Darius Slay, but still managed 98 yards receiving. Chicago was superb at shutting down WR1s last season (in games Jerrell Freeman played), but, even dating back to last season, that has never been the case with Freeman out. Over the past three weeks, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and Jordy Nelson combined for 72.8 fantasy points on 21 targets against them. We likely won’t know for sure until Monday if Sam Bradford plays, but right now it’s looking like we should be optimistic. He’s egregiously priced on both sites, and I’ll have heavy exposure this week.
Bold/Bad Calls
LeGarrette Blount [DK: RB40, FD: RB25] – Wendell Smallwood has not practiced all week, which should mean a larger workload for Blount (though Corey Clement will be involved as well). As I mentioned earlier, I don’t like how the strengths of Philadelphia’s passing game match up against Arizona’s strengths on defense, but if Philadelphia smashes (6.5-point favorites) like Vegas thinks they will, this should create plenty of garbage-time opportunities for Blount. Blount totals 203 rushing yards on 28 carries (7.3 YPC) over his prior two weeks, and currently leads all running backs in elusive rating (yes, ahead of Kareem Hunt). Blount is not used in the passing game, so you’re really banking on a touchdown, and the matchup is neutral at best, but I’ll have plenty of exposure this week and will pair him with Philadelphia’s defense (and one of Arizona’s deep-threat wide receivers) in tournaments. My projections like Ameer Abdullah slightly more, who fits a similar mold, but in factoring in ownership, I much prefer Blount.
Pierre Garcon [DK: WR18, FD: WR19] – Like Bryant, Garcon has dealt with a brutal cornerback schedule to start the season, running 68 percent of his routes against cornerbacks who graded out top-30 at their position last season. This week, he draws a much softer matchup against a Colts defense allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers running routes outside, after giving up the seventh-most a season ago. Yes, Vontae Davis is “back”, but he won’t shadow, and he surrendered 101 yards into his coverage last week (second-most) and was our third-worst-graded cornerback of the week. He also graded out 110th of 120 qualifying cornerbacks just a season ago. In spite of the tough schedule to start, Garcon still ranks 11th in targets (33), and should draw lower-ownership with everyone and their mother on Aldrick Robinson if Marquise Goodwin sits.
Sterling Shepard [DK: WR31, FD: WR34] – Shepard currently ranks 24th in targets (27) and 14th among wide receivers in fantasy points. Odell Beckham Jr. draws a brutal matchup against the forever under-rated Casey Hayward, who from 2015-2016, by my metrics, was the second-best shadow cornerback in the NFL. Hayward was targeted seven times in coverage last week against the Eagles, allowing just 17 total yards. Brandon Marshall has played terribly, with Eli Manning averaging a passer rating of 53.7 when targeting him (as opposed to 118.2 when targeting Shepard). The Chargers, meanwhile, are allowing the fouth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers running routes from the slot, where Shepard runs 85.8 percent of his routes.