NFL Grind Down: Thanksgiving Edition
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get three months of Grinders Incentives for free ($75 value).
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
| Philadelphia Eagles | Detroit Lions | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Thursday – 12:30 p.m. | Ford Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 46 | 23 | 0 | 46 | 23 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.9 | 15 | 12 | 11 | Offense | 18.5 | 29 | 7 | 32 | |
| Opp. Defense | 27.4 | 29 | 20 | 24 | Opp. Defense | 22.9 | 17 | 19 | 28 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Detroit Lions | 26 | 15 | 17 | 22 | Philadelphia Eagles | 27 | 13 | 31 | 2 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 84 | 55 | 2 | 565 | Johnson | 96 | 59 | 3 | 828 | |
| Huff | 28 | 19 | 3 | 213 | Tate | 84 | 52 | 1 | 525 | |
| Cooper | 26 | 13 | 2 | 247 | Moore | 40 | 26 | 4 | 307 | |
| Celek | 23 | 18 | 2 | 284 | Ebron | 43 | 27 | 3 | 320 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Sam Bradford (PHI, Questionable), Ryan Mathews, Zach Ertz (PHI, Doubtful)
PHI Matchup Rating: 6.5
DET Matchup Rating: 4.5
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: Mark Sanchez (FD $6,700, DK $5,200) has faced two of the league’s weaker pass defense in his two appearances this year, and has turned in two truly terrible performances. It’s pretty clear that Sam Bradford (FD $6,700, DK $5,300) isn’t the only thing holding back the Philly offense. Their line has struggled, their receivers are inconsistent, and they generally struggle to get things going and create big plays and quick scoring drives like they did last year. A game against Detroit seems like the kind of “get right” game you want to target in daily fantasy, but after watching the Lions keep the previously high-flying Raiders in check, there’s reason for pessimism. Still, The Lions have allowed 18 total touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks so far this season, including multiple scores to Alex Smith (once) and Teddy Bridgewater (twice). Detroit ranks 22nd in Football Outsiders DVOA against the pass, and 29th in numberFire’s pass defense rankings. There’s potential here for a good game, but among the six starting quarterbacks on Thursday, Sanchez/Bradford definitely is not in the top 50%. On a short slate, you’re free to play around with different lineup constructions to set yourself apart from the crowd, and the contrarian way to go under center will almost certainly be to take whichever player starts for Philly.
Running Game: DeMarco Murray (FD $7,700, DK $6,100) didn’t get much of a shot to run against the Bucs, but when he did, he looked alright. He averaged nearly five yards per attempt, and will face a much worse run defense on Thanksgiving. With the struggles the Eagles have had throwing the ball, I would expect them to run early and often if they’re not being blown out of the water. Murray has received four or more targets in each of his last six games, as well, which is a great bonus (especially on DraftKings). The Lions rank 20th in DVOA against the run, and while they’ve looked alright against the Raiders and Packers in recent weeks, they have allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the league this year (15), and surrender yards at a fairly average 4.1 per carry clip. If Murray gets 20 touches against the Lions, he will likely have 80-100 yards, a touchdown, and a couple of catches to his name. That will be enough to pay off his salaries, and if he breaks a big play or two, he starts to offer GPP-winning upside. He’s the most expensive healthy back on the Thanksgiving slate, and will likely be popular, but in what should be a very competitive game with the Lions, he’s not a player to fade.
Pass Catchers: According to DVOA, the Lions are weakest in coverage against tight ends, and the fantasy points allowed agree. The Lions are among the ten most favorable matchups for tight ends in the NFL, and that means Brent Celek (FD $5,800, DK $3,200) becomes a strong play with Zach Ertz likely out with a concussion. It’s tough to trust these two tight ends, as they eat into the other’s role so often, but if one is out, the other gains a nice boost in volume. Celek had four targets in Week 10, and then received ten looks in Week 11, the game in which Ertz was injured. The Lions have allowed eight tight end touchdowns this year, and Celek is a strong candidate to make that nine by the time you’re done eating turkey on Thursday. The other weakness for the Detroit defense is covering opponent’s secondary wide receiver options, but figuring out who that is for Philly is a challenge as of late. No wideout has more than five targets in either of the team’s last two games, as Jordan Matthews (FD $6,000, DK $5,800) has disappeared from the offense, and the other receivers simply don’t have defined roles or stable workloads. Nelson Agholor (FD $4,800, DK $3,200) would be my pick if forced into starting a Philly receiver in this one, but even if I’m rostering the quarterback, I’m sticking to Celek. If Bradford plays, I might give Matthews a chance in one tournament lineup, as that duo definitely had decent rapport prior to Bradford’s injury.
The Takeaway: DeMarco Murray and Brent Celek are your top plays for the Eagles, while the starting quarterback and either Nelson Agholor or Jordan Matthews are tourney stacks to set yourself apart from the crowd, who will have Lions and Packers in their passing game roster spots this Thursday.
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: Since their bye week, the Eagles have allowed ten touchdowns and grabbed only one interception while facing three quarterbacks who are hardly among the most prolific in the NFL. Matt Cassel, Ryan Tannehill and Jameis Winston torched the Philly defense over the past month, and Matthew Stafford (FD $7,200, DK $5,800) is next in line to post a ton of points against the Eagles. DVOA and numberFire’s rankings both suggest that the Eagles are better against the pass than these raw numbers suggest, but thanks to the tempo at which the Eagles play, and the subsequent number of plays their defense faces, it’s impossible for them to limit production on a weekly basis. Stafford had a letdown of his own against the beatable Oakland defense, and tends to let fantasy owners down in obvious spots, which makes him even more appealing in tournaments this week. The Eagles have the worst DVOA in the NFL against number one wideouts, and while that obviously helps the Lions’ top receiver (who we’ll discuss in a bit), it also helps Stafford, who has no problem getting his star involved early and often. If you’re going cheap at quarterback on Thursday, Stafford is the smarter way to go when compared to the Eagles’ situation, but is not as clearly superior to Jay Cutler.
Running Game: The Lions let Ameer Abdullah (FD $5,400, DK $3,300) lead the way out of the backfield against the Raiders, but the end product was more of the same for one of the league’s more disappointing running attacks. The Raiders are terrible against the run, but Detroit was only able to muster 80 yards on 24 carries with no touchdowns from their backs (Matthew Stafford had the best fantasy rushing stat line with 31 rushing yards and a touchdown). Theo Riddick (FD $5,500, DK $3,500) continued his role as one of the more reliable receiving backs in the league, but Philly ranks second at defending backs in the passing game, according to Football Outsiders. The Eagles have been average against the run according to the advanced metrics, but haven’t been giving up a ton of fantasy points to the position. This is a situation to avoid as fully as possible on this short slate, with Abdullah the FanDuel play of choice, and Riddick the DK option if you’re looking for a play from this offense.
Pass Catchers: After seeing 11 combined targets in his previous two games, Golden Tate (FD $6,300, DK $4,700) saw 11 looks in the passing game against Oakland, and was able to grind out a decent fantasy outing on a handful of short catches. Calvin Johnson (FD $8,200, DK $7,200) had the bigger plays on a slightly lower volume, but was kept out of the end zone. As mentioned above, the Eagles defend every position in the passing game well this season except for opposing WR1, according to DVOA. This means Johnson is the obvious option, as he’ll see the favorable matchups on the outside against Byron Maxwell and Nolan Carroll. The Eagles have great safeties, but that didn’t slow down Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Brandin Cooks or Dez Bryant in their 100+ yard, 1+ touchdown outings against this defense. It should be noted that Cole Beasley also had a big game against the Philly defense, which leaves the door open for Tate to do the same. However, Johnson is the smarter and more popular play, while Tate is more of a GPP option. Cameron Brate and Ben Watson are the only tight ends to score touchdowns against Philly this year, and only two tight ends have caught more than 48 yards worth of passes in a game against the Eagles in 2015. Eric Ebron (FD $5,100, DK $3,300) has the potential to score a touchdown, but there are better tight end options, especially if Ertz is out and Celek is starting for Philly.
The Takeaway: Stafford and Johnson are the preferred options for the Lions, while Tate and Riddick are good GPP plays. The other running backs and Ebron are tough to trust.
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys
| Carolina Panthers | Dallas Cowboys | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Thursday – 4:30 p.m. | AT&T Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 46 | 23 | 0 | 46 | 23 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 29.9 | 3 | 28 | 4 | Offense | 19.0 | 27 | 27 | 8 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.8 | 15 | 10 | 15 | Opp. Defense | 19.1 | 5 | 9 | 8 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6 | 27 | 6 | 11 | Carolina Panthers | 4 | 16 | 8 | 16 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Brown | 28 | 17 | 3 | 262 | Bryant | 42 | 21 | 2 | 254 | |
| Ginn | 67 | 30 | 4 | 500 | Williams | 54 | 29 | 3 | 452 | |
| Funchess | 35 | 16 | 2 | 266 | Beasley | 45 | 33 | 2 | 348 | |
| Olsen | 83 | 48 | 6 | 718 | Witten | 65 | 51 | 2 | 472 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions:
CAR Matchup Rating: 5.5
DAL Matchup Rating: 3.5
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: Cam Newton (FD $8,900, DK $7,100) has scored multiple touchdowns in every game since Week 1, and as you either know from experience or regret, he threw for five scores in Week 11 against Washington en route to one of the best fantasy performances of the week. Newton is on track for the highest passing touchdown total of his career, and is still picking up rushing yards and touchdowns as he did in years past. He hasn’t been a total success every week, as he’s struggled with interceptions and had low yardage totals a few times this season, but his rushing totals give him a stable floor, and his upside is tremendous as the true focal point of his team’s offense. He’s gone over 28 FanDuel points four times this year, and since Week 1, he’s never had fewer than 16 points in a game. The floor won’t kill you, and the ceiling will make sure you cash. Dallas runs their offense at such a slow tempo that fantasy potential for opposing players is always limited, and they’ve done a good job of limiting scoring overall this year. But they have allowed ten rushing touchdowns in ten games, and with Newton receiving the same amount of carries as Jonathan Stewart inside the 10 and inside the 5, he’s got a great shot of scoring on the ground. This boosts his floor tremendously, and obviously keeps his ceiling intact. He’s the top play at QB for this slate without taking price into consideration, and while he is quite expensive, there aren’t a ton of stars to pay up for elsewhere. Newton makes a ton of sense in cash games on this three-game slate.
Running Game: As mentioned above, Cam Newton is a steady rushing producer for the Panthers, and gets a lot of the goal line work. The rest of the rushing duties go to Jonathan Stewart (FD $7,100, DK $5,200) (with a few exceptions), as JStew has 20 or more carries in each of his last six games. He’s gone over 100 yards twice in that span, and scored five total touchdowns. The Cowboys rank 25th in run defense according to DVOA, and have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing backs this year. This is a great matchup, but with Newton cutting into Stewart’s rushing upside, he’s not the top option on the slate despite the ideal opponent and volume. There are other backs who see heavy, consistent volume on this slate, and they offer more potential as they don’t have an elite rushing quarterback standing next to them in the backfield.
Pass Catchers: The Cowboys have a respectable pass defense, but have a notable weakness to opposing WR1s, according to DVOA. Julio Jones and Mike Evans both had big days against the Cowboys, but so did “WR1s who spend time in the slot” Jordan Matthews and Julian Edelman. This means “the Cowboys are bad against WR1” isn’t quite as useful when considering this matchup. Devin Funchess (FD $5,900, DK $3,900) got his chance to shine last week thanks to an injury to Corey Brown, and he pieced together a decent fantasy performance with 64 yards and a score. Brown doesn’t seem likely to suit up this week, which means Funchess will again see a boost in opportunities. Talented rookie Byron Jones has been playing outside corner to fill in for the injured Mo Claiborne, but neither he nor Brandon Carr are worrisome matchups on their own. That means Funchess won’t see a matchup he can’t conquer. The same is true for Ted Ginn (FD $5,400, DK $3,700), although his most formidable foe is his own hands. He has big-play potential that can’t be ignored, but is impossible to rely upon thanks to his incredible inefficiency. The sneaky play for Carolina might be Jerricho Cotchery (FD $4,800, DK $3,100), who will get the most favorable matchup of the Panthers’ wideouts when he lines up against Tyler Patmon in the slot. Patmon normally plays behind Byron Jones on the slot coverage depth chart, but with Jones outside, Patmon is forced into action. He has the lowest PFF grade of any Dallas corner, and Cotchery is a veteran with reliable hands who Newton has targeted 15 times in the last three games. He’s risky, but on a short slate, you need to set yourself apart somehow, and Cotchery is one of your best shots as an under-the-radar receiving touchdown. Greg Olsen (FD $6,400, DK $6,200) has a couple of total letdown games this season, but eight of his ten starts have featured at least 60 yards or a touchdown. He’s the most talented pass catcher on the Carolina roster, and is always a threat to score as the team’s leading red zone target man. On FanDuel, where he’s priced similarly enough to Celek and Witten, he’s the top all-around play, but on DraftKings, where pricing is more spread out, he’s simply a solid option and not a core play.
The Takeaway: This game will be played at a relatively slow tempo, but it should stay competitive throughout, and a couple of Panthers have serious fantasy appeal. Newton, Stewart and Olsen are always the top plays, while Funchess and Cotchery are both in the mix.
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: According to Football Outsiders’ weighted defensive rankings, which favor recent results when calculating overall defensive efficiency for NFL teams, the Panthers are playing the best defense in the NFL right now. They have talent at every level on defense, including a shutdown corner. This is worrisome for Tony Romo (FD $7,900, DK $5,800), who is still shaking off the rust of his extended absence. Romo threw only 28 times in his first game back, as the running backs handled a majority of the offense. This will always be the plan for Dallas, who have an elite offensive line and trust their running game to chew up clock and keep opposing offenses off the field. The Panther defense is the toughest against passing games on this slate, and Romo isn’t 100% Tony Romo quite yet. On a short week in a tough matchup, I would rank Romo below most of the other QB options on this Thanksgiving slate.
Running Game: Darren McFadden (FD $8,100, DK $5,500) has 20 or more touches in each of his last five games, and while he’s only scored once in those outings, he has gone over 100 total yards in four of the five appearances. McFadden is the lead back for Dallas, and hardly surrenders a touch to other Cowboy runners. He’ll face an incredibly tough task this week, as Carolina ranks fourth in DVOA against the run, and has not allowed a single back to go over 40 yards rushing since Week 8. Backs have been relatively productive through the air against the Panthers this year, which would be great news for McFadden if Tony Romo wasn’t back yet, but Romo isn’t as likely to check down to his RB and eliminates the PPR upside for the former Arkansas star. This is an incredibly tough matchup, and while McFadden will still likely receive 20 carries, he may only get 60 yards on those carries. All it takes is one big run or a couple of goal line opportunities to have a nice return on investment, which keeps him in consideration, but he’s the weakest of the high-volume backs on this slate.
Pass Catchers: With Romo back under center, the quality and aggressiveness of the passing game takes a step in the right direction, but the volume of passes still remains a concern. Dallas is content to allow Romo no more than 30 pass attempts, which he’ll spread out fairly evenly among his pass catchers. Dez Bryant (FD $8,300, DK $7,600) will see the majority of the looks, and is always in play as one of the premier big-play wideouts in the NFL. However, he’ll see coverage from one of the best corners in the game, Josh Norman, and is, therefore, a risky play not suited to cash games. According to PFF, Norman ranks fourth in fantasy points allowed per route run this season among starting corners, and has the highest grade at his position. Bryant can be used in tournaments, but if you’re spending up at WR in a cash game, he’s not the player to choose. No other player saw more than four targets in Romo’s first game back, but earlier this season when Romo was healthy, he threw a healthy amount of passes in the direction of Terrance Williams (FD $5,900, DK $4,200), Jason Witten (FD $5,600, DK $4,800) and Cole Beasley (FD $5,200, DK $3,200). Beasley has the best matchup against struggling slot corner Bene Benwikere, while Williams has touchdown upside (as his role remains the same as it’s always been: secondary receiver who scores touchdowns every couple of games). Witten plays a position without a lot of great options, but the Panthers have been tough against tight ends this year, allowing a big day to Jimmy Graham and two touchdowns to Richard Rodgers, but otherwise keeping tight ends in check. The potential is there for any of those three players to pick up the slack for Bryant, should Norman shut down the Cowboys’ star receiver, but figuring out which one will do so is a tough task. Beasley would be my top option based on price and opportunity, while Witten would be second, and Williams third.
The Takeaway: The Cowboys have a very tough matchup against an elite Panthers defense, but on a short slate, they deserve some consideration. McFadden and Beasley are the top plays, while Bryant, Romo and Witten are all in play as well.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
| Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Thursday – 8:30 p.m. | Lambeau Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 46.5 | 18.75 | -9 | 46.5 | 27.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.4 | 21 | 19 | 15 | Offense | 24.9 | 9 | 21 | 16 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.8 | 8 | 22 | 22 | Opp. Defense | 25.1 | 22 | 3 | 25 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Green Bay Packers | 24 | 10 | 10 | 27 | Chicago Bears | 17 | 5 | 16 | 9 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jeffery | 57 | 36 | 2 | 515 | Cobb | 87 | 47 | 6 | 572 | |
| Royal | 36 | 26 | 1 | 170 | Adams | 53 | 30 | 0 | 308 | |
| Wilson | 46 | 24 | 1 | 420 | Jones | 50 | 30 | 7 | 592 | |
| Bennett | 76 | 50 | 3 | 425 | Rodgers | 53 | 36 | 5 | 274 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions:
CHI Matchup Rating: 3.5
GB Matchup Rating: 6.0
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: It is very easy to dismiss Jay Cutler (FD $6,900, DK $5,100) as a joke, as his back-breaking interceptions and general carelessness with the football have led to quite the reputation. But he has one of the most talented arms in all of football, and has capable pass catchers with whom he often shows a healthy amount of understanding and coordination. So far this season, Cutler has been respectable, never throwing more than one interception in a game, and throwing for multiple touchdowns on four occasions, in addition to a game with a rushing touchdown and a passing touchdown. Last week he struggled against an elite Denver defense, failing to score a touchdown, but still picking up 265 yards and only throwing one pick. He also had his second straight game with 20 or more rushing yards. If he had a healthy corps of receivers for this matchup with Green Bay, I’d recommend Cutler as one of the top plays of the week at QB, as his ownership would not match his potential. But with Alshon Jeffery hurting, and Martellus Bennett dealing with a slight knock as well, Cutler doesn’t have a ton of great weapons at his disposal. Green Bay has allowed the tenth-most points to opposing quarterbacks this year, and ranks a mediocre 14th against the pass according to DVOA. Cutler struggled a bit in the first meeting between these two teams, but since then the Packers have allowed four multi-touchdown games from QBs. The Chicago signal caller is on par with Matthew Stafford as the value plays of choice for tournament lineups on this Thanksgiving slate.
Running Game: The Bears’ coaching staff, led by John Fox, is notorious for not letting the public or other teams know about player injury statuses. That means we know less about Matt Forte (FD $7,800, DK $6,800) than we’d like, which is unfortunate, because his status changes quite a bit about this slate. Forte, if healthy, is a top play in any matchup as one of the most productive backs in the league with one of the biggest workloads. If Forte is ruled out, Jeremy Langford (FD $6,200, DK $5,300) assumes a similar role and holds a ton of appeal for daily fantasy purposes. The Packers rank 18th in DVOA against the run, and 26th in numberFire’s run defense rankings, so this is an exploitable matchup as we saw in these teams’ first meeting. Forte rushed for 141 yards and scored a touchdown on the ground in that first meeting, and either he or Langford could see a similar stat line again on Thanksgiving. Keep an eye on the injury news, and use the starting running back in tournaments as often as you feel comfortable when balancing injury and workload risk with potential value.
Pass Catchers: The injury status mind games from Chicago won’t help us all that much in regards to Alshon Jeffery (FD $7,600, DK $6,600), either. The star wideout for the Bears would be a great play if he suits up, as the Packers rank 27th at defending WR1 according to Football Outsiders, and have allowed 140 or more yards to three other star receivers (Thomas, Allen, Maclin). If Jeffery suits up, give a boost to Jay Cutler and consider Alshon as a top play at WR. If Jeffery doesn’t go, check the status of Martellus Bennett (FD $5,300, DK $4,000), who should see a healthy amount of targets in what could be a high-scoring game which the Bears find themselves trailing throughout. If neither player is healthy enough to play, Marquess Wilson (FD $5,800, DK $3,900) and Zach Miller (FD $5,100, DK $2,900) are great value plays. Wilson will lead the way at receiver, while Miller would be a bargain on DK with touchdown upside. Wilson is in play if Jeffery is out even if Bennett starts, but Miller needs Bennett to be out to be trustworthy for daily fantasy.
The Takeaway: Jay Cutler is a better option than his public perception would suggest, while the running game and receiving corps contain top plays that will depend on injury statuses. A healthy Matt Forte and a healthy Alshon Jeffery would be very strong options, while their backups all stand to produce well in their theoretical absences.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: The Packers should have no problem winning this game, if Vegas is to be believed, and if they manage to secure a “W” it will be thanks to their offense overpowering the Chicago defense. Aaron Rodgers (FD $9,200, DK $7,400) has settled into a bit of a groove over the last three weeks after a scoreless outing against Denver in Week 8, scoring eight touchdowns in his last three games. He hasn’t been completing passes at as high of a rate as we’ve come to expect, but a lot of that can be attributed to a lack of depth at receiver and issues with the offensive line and running game. Rodgers still has unlimited upside, and his three-touchdown game with a bonus of 35 rushing yards against this Chicago defense in Week 1 serves as a reminder of what he’s capable of achieving. The Bears rank 24th in DVOA against the pass, and have allowed three or more passing touchdowns three times this year. Newton has a better floor and is a better all-around play this weekend, but Rodgers has the most upside of any player on this slate.
Running Game: The Packers really, really want Eddie Lacy (FD $6,500, DK $4,700) to be the lead back for their offense, and they gave him plenty of chances last week against Minnesota. He delivered with 100 yards on 22 carries, a respectable performance, and that should keep him at the top of the depth chart and running back volume list for Green bay heading into this cupcake matchup. The Bears rank 31st in DVOA against the run and 29th according to numberFire, and have allowed 4.6 yards per carry this season to opposing rushers. They haven’t given up many rushing touchdowns, which keeps their DVP rankings respectable, but if the Packers get into scoring range on Thanksgiving, there’s a good chance that Lacy punches one in for a score. James Starks (FD $5,800, DK $4,800) would be appealing in a more competitive game, but with Green Bay likely to be in clock-chewing mode, Lacy is the preferred back.
Pass Catchers: Randall Cobb (FD $7,400, DK $6,500) is not 100% Randall Cobb this season, and whether that’s due to injury, the absence of Jordy Nelson, or some mix of both, it’s been frustrating for daily fantasy players. He hauled in only two of his nine targets last week, and while he did score a touchdown, it was a consolation prize for those who rostered him. He has nine or more targets in his last four games, and in six games this season, but those targets aren’t turning into production at a reliable rate. The same could be said of Davante Adams (FD $6,900, DK $4,700), who had 32 targets over a two week span between Weeks 9 and 10, and walked away with 17 catches for 172 yards, and was rightfully given only four looks in the following game. James Jones (FD $5,800, DK $4,600) isn’t a special player, but he’s been productive when given volume this season, and he is one of only three players on the team with more than four red zone targets this year. Cobb, obviously, is the team leader in that category, while tight end Richard Rodgers (FD $5,200, DK $3,100) is the third. Rodgers might be the best all-around value in this matchup among pass catchers, as the Bears rank 25th in DVOA against tight ends, and have allowed four tight ends to receive more than 60 yards worth of passes this year. At such a thin position on a slate with only one star option who is priced accordingly, Rodgers is a fine tournament pivot. Cobb and Jones are the preferred receivers, but they’re secondary options compared to some of the other names in other games on this slate.
The Takeaway: Aaron Rodgers is never a bad play, while Eddie Lacy and Richard Rodgers both have touchdown potential and surprisingly solid roles for their prices. Randall Cobb and James Jones are viable secondary plays at receiver, especially in a stack with Rodgers.