NFL Grind Down: Week 1 - Page Four

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2016-09-11 01:39:21

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Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts

Detroit Lions						Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		4.5	50	23				-4.5	50	27.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.4	17	8	32		Offense	20.8	23	22	29
Opp. Defense	25.5	25	26	25		Opp. Defense	25.0	23	14	19
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Indianapolis Colts	25	18	27	27		Detroit Lions	21	20	15	28
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Tate	129	90	6	813		Hilton	134	69	5	1,124
Jones	110	69	4	848		Moncrief	105	64	6	733
Boldin	111	69	4	789		Dorsett	39	18	1	225
Ebron	70	47	5	537		Allen	29	16	1	109

Vegas Odds – IND (-4) / O/U 50 1/2

Notable injuries and suspensions: Eric Ebron (DET TE) – Questionable (Ankle) / Golden Tate (DET WR) – Questionable (Ankle) but fully expected to play / Vontae Davis (IND CB) – Out (Ankle)

DET Matchup Rating: 8.0
IND Matchup Rating: 8.5

Detroit Lions

Quarterback: Outside of the Oakland/New Orleans tilt, this one has the best shootout potential on the board. The Colts will be without their best defensive player in Vontae Davis, who will miss significant time with ligament damage in one of his ankles. This leaves a huge void in the secondary, and the Colts ranked in the bottom third of the league against both the run and the pass a season ago. The loss of Calvin Johnson will certainly hurt Matthew Stafford production in this game, but he should flourish in an expected shootout with a great matchup at his disposal. Despite Johnson’s retirement, it is logical to expect 300 yards and a couple of scores from Stafford here. He’s a fine target in any format.

Running Game: Barry Sanders isn’t walking through that door. It has been a while since Detroit has had a legitimate threat in the backfield, and that won’t change this season. Ameer Abdullah is the favorite to get the majority of the carries, but Detroit often goes to a hurry-up, pass-based set featuring Theo Riddick. Riddick will work in all passing situations, and Zach Zenner could get some goal line work. Even in a favorable matchup, this is a spot to avoid outside of perhaps a sneaky Stafford/Riddick pairing in a full PPR GPP format.

Pass Catchers: Johnson’s retirement opens up plenty of opportunity for the other receivers in Detroit. Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of this will be Marvin Jones. His season-long draft stock has been on the rise for weeks now, and he is actually passing up Golden Tate in some spots. Tate is the reliable, volume-based target, while Jones will be the big play threat. Feel free to use either in whatever format you play. Tate is generally the safer cash game play, while Jones is the GPP option. However, salary is also an important consideration here. On FanDuel, Tate costs you $6,900 while Jones costs you $5,500. On DraftKings, Tate costs you $7,500 while Jones costs just $4,600. Jones will be one of the highest owned Week 1 wideouts on DraftKings, and he is playable in cash games on both sites at these cheap salary tags. Eric Ebron should have a fine year at tight end, but he is questionable at best to play in this game with an ankle injury suffered a few weeks ago.

The Takeaway: Expect the Detroit passing game to thrive. Matthew Stafford is definitely in play, while Golden Tate and Marvin Jones should have good games. Jones is way too cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings and will be very highly owned.

Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback: Andrew Luck is obviously talented, and he has a slew of receivers at his disposal. However, the elephant in the room is that the Colts have what could be the worst offensive line in the NFL. They have already been ravaged by injuries, and this is a major concern heading into the opener. I expect the Colts to put up some points in this game, but the risk outweighs the reward with Luck in this spot. He is the second most expensive quarterback option on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and that isn’t worth the risk in my opinion. You can target some of his receivers to get some affordable exposure. Don’t reach for Luck’s hefty price tag.

Running Game: Given the offensive line injuries and the fact that Frank Gore is old, I don’t expect massive production from the ground game in Indianapolis. Gore is 33 years old and has carried the ball 2,702 times in regular season play during his NFL career. That’s a lot of totes for a player in today’s NFL, and Gore could very well be one of the biggest disappointments in the league this season as he attempts to run behind a bad offensive line. Stay far away.

Pass Catchers: T.Y. Hilton is one of the more under-rated WR #1’s in the game, and he should see plenty of targets in this Colts offense. He should improve on his 69/1,124/5 line from a year ago. Now that Andre Johnson is out of town, there will also be more opportunity for Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett. Moncrief impressed in spurts last season, and Dorsett should offer up more than Andre Johnson did at his old age last year. Coby Fleener is off to New Orleans, so Dwayne Allen could have a nice year at tight end. Allen is banged up right now and didn’t do anything in the preseason, so it’s best to take a wait-and-see approach here. Stick to the three wideouts for your Indianapolis choices in this game, and they are all reasonable selections at their current price tags.

The Takeaway: Andrew Luck is too expensive, Frank Gore is too old, and the offensive line is too banged up. Limit your Colts exposure to the affordable trio of wide receivers, who are all in play given their respective salaries. T.Y. Hilton is the high upside option, while Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett are the more affordable options.

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals

New England Patriots						Arizona Cardinals
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		6	47	20.75				-6	47	26.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	28.9	3	4	30		Offense	30.3	2	3	12
Opp. Defense	19.6	7	10	6		Opp. Defense	19.7	9	20	10
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Arizona Cardinals	16	7	9	18		New England Patriots	13	9	19	7
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Edelman	117	78	7	845		Fitzgerald	165	121	10	1,421
Amendola	98	72	3	705		Floyd	104	58	8	912
Hogan	59	36	2	450		Brown	118	72	7	1,108
Gronkowski	143	87	14	1,403		Fells	34	25	4	361

Vegas Odds – ARI (-6 1/2) / O/U 47 1/2

Notable injuries and suspensions: Rob Gronkowski (NE TE) – Questionable (Hamstring) but not expected to play / Tom Brady (NE QB) – Out (Suspension)

NE Matchup Rating: 4.5
ARI Matchup Rating: 5.5

New England Patriots

Editor’s Note: Rob Gronkowski has been ruled OUT for Week 1.

Quarterback: If you would have asked me four weeks ago who the most popular value quarterback would be this week, I would have offered Jimmy Garoppolo as my response. However, that has gone by the wayside thanks to Dak Prescott. The Patriots will not put the game on Garoppolo’s shoulders, so expect a more run-heavy approach than usual out of the Patriots. This is especially true against an elite Arizona secondary featuring stalwarts Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu. Garoppolo is still an intriguing value pick for GPPs now that he will be around 5% owned, but I won’t have as much exposure to him as I would have originally thought before the preseason began.

Running Game: Although I expect the Patriots to go more run-heavy here, good luck figuring out what Bill Belichick is going to do. Will it be LeGarrette Blount? James White? Branden Bolden? D.J. Foster? Play one of these guys at your own peril, because Belichick is as unpredictable as it comes with regards to his running back usage.

Pass Catchers: Expect the targets to be dominated by the ever reliable Julian Edelman and the dominant Rob Gronkowski. Though Gronkowski is obviously the best tight end in the game, you have to pay a huge premium for him on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and I don’t feel comfortable doing that with Garoppolo under center. Of course, Gronk always brings 2-TD upside to the table that you don’t get from really anyone else at the tight end position these days. If I opt for anyone, it will probably be Edelman on a full-PPR site like DraftKings. It would not be a surprise to see him get 13-16 targets in this game, especially if the Patriots fall behind. Still, I will not go overboard with exposure against that very good Arizona secondary.

SATURDAY UPDATE – With Rob Gronkowski now unlikely to play, Martellus Bennett becomes a very viable tight end option, and the Arizona defense becomes one of the top overall plays of the week.

The Takeaway: If you feel comfortable using a New England running back, you have more stones than me. This is a tough matchup for a quarterback making his first NFL start, so use caution with any New England selections. Julian Edelman makes the most sense on a full PPR site, while Rob Gronkowski is best served in GPPs this week. Of course, he has massive upside, but his floor is lower with Garoppolo under center and his price tag demands lots of production.

Arizona Cardinals

Quarterback: The Patriots defense ranked just 20th against the pass last year, but a lot of that was attributable to teams throwing the ball against them more than they run it simply because opponents tend to be behind in games. I generally don’t pick on the Patriots defense, since they are fairly solid at every level. Carson Palmer is enjoying a nice career resurgence as he ages, but this is not the matchup to pay any type of premium for him. Let someone else take the risk.

Running Game: Bruce Arians has paid lip service to keeping Chris Johnson involved, but he knows where the bread is buttered. David Johnson is a fantasy stud, and we should not be scared off by the chatter. In addition, David Johnson doesn’t need 25 touches to make an impact on a game. He is capable of taking one the distance any time he touches the ball, and he is certainly in play even against the Patriots. I probably won’t use him in cash games, but there is lots of GPP upside here — and Johnson won’t be that highly owned this week. Use that as a possible game theory angle as you build your tournament lineups.

Pass Catchers: Larry Fitzgerald had a fantastic 2015 campaign with 1,421 receiving yards, but his explosiveness is starting to wane as he ages. He is eventually going to cede the top receiver tag to John Brown, and that could happen this year. Brown comes cheaper than Fitzgerald on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and he is my favorite target in the Arizona receiving corps. Michael Floyd is a weekly boom-or-bust candidate that I generally avoid. Arizona doesn’t use the tight end often. Brown is the only guy I am really interested in. This, of course, comes with the disclaimer that Brown is fully cleared from all his concussion symptoms, which should be the case since he played in the final preseason game.

The Takeaway: My exposure to Arizona will be limited to David Johnson in GPPs and John Brown in all formats. I won’t pay a premium for Carson Palmer in a tough matchup, and this isn’t a spot where we need to go overboard with targets on a full slate. This will be a fun game to watch, but we don’t need to go all-in with players.
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins (MONDAY NIGHT GAME #1)

Pittsburgh Steelers						Washington Redskins
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	50	26.5				3	50	23.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.4	7	5	14		Offense	23.9	11	11	20
Opp. Defense	24.4	19	24	26		Opp. Defense	19.9	10	30	5
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Washington Redskins	22	19	30	13		Pittsburgh Steelers	18	4	28	19
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Brown	205	143	10	1,953		Jackson	54	32	4	545
Wheaton	92	51	5	802		Garcon	119	77	6	847
Coates	5	3	0	72		Crowder	82	62	2	619
Green	63	37	4	429		Reed	131	96	12	1,072

Vegas Odds – PIT (-3) / O/U 50

Notable injuries and suspensions: Will be updated closer to kickoff

PIT Matchup Rating: 8.0
WAS Matchup Rating: 7.5

Pittsburgh Steelers

Quarterback: The Redskins ranked just 25th in pass defense a year ago, but the addition of Josh Norman should help them make massive strides in that department this year. Despite this, expect the Steelers to put up some gaudy stats through the air. With Le’Veon Bell suspended, they will gladly put the game on Ben Roethlisberger shoulders. He is no stranger to putting up 40 pass attempts and 300 yard games even in difficult matchups, and this will likely be no exception. Big Ben is in play for his volume alone in this one, especially with the Steelers projected to put up around 27 points in this game.

Running Game: DeAngelo Williams will step in for the suspended Le’Veon Bell, and the Steelers have the luxury of having a capable backup that knows the offense well. Williams put up solid numbers when given the chance to play last year, but he doesn’t come at a bargain price tag. He is a capable pass-catcher and rushed for 4.5 yards per carry last year, so you can’t argue with the production. Washington’s defense ranked 26th against the run last year, so everything on paper indicates that Williams is in play. It’s just hard to get past the mental hurdle of paying a mid-to-high range price tag for him.

Pass Catchers: Antonio Brown is going to see as many targets as he can handle in the early going. With Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant both out, the Steelers will force the ball into Brown’s hands. He will undoubtedly see a lot of Josh Norman’s coverage in this game, and that is definitely a concern. It will be fun to see how this battle plays out. Thanks to the matchups, I prefer Julio Jones and Odell Beckham over Brown this week. My hope is that Brown has a poor game in order to load up on him over the next few weeks. Outside of Brown, there isn’t a lot we can rely on in the receiving corps. The guy generating the most pre-season buzz has been Eli Rogers, who should see a lot of snaps in the slot. He will be a popular value play on the game slates that extend into Monday, and he will be extremely popular on the Monday-only slates. There’s little upside at the tight end position with Heath Miller gone, and you don’t want the heartache of rostering Markus Wheaton.

The Takeaway: Roethlisberger and Brown are fine targets based on volume alone, though Washington’s pass defense will be much improved this year with the addition of Josh Norman. After those two, don’t sleep on veteran DeAngelo Williams, who knows the Pittsburgh offense well and has shown that he can be an admirable replacement for Le’Veon Bell. The Steelers are expected to score quite a few points in this game, so getting some exposure to their offense isn’t a bad idea.

Washington Redskins

Quarterback: You like that? The Redskins have hitched their hopes to once-backup Kirk Cousins, and he did play well in 2015. I expect regression to hit this year, and I am not a believer in Cousins as a top-end NFL quarterback. However, that regression might have to wait a while. The Steelers are vulnerable via the air attack, ranking third worst in the NFL in passing yards allowed last season. This game has sneaky shootout potential and a projected total of 50 points, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if both teams racked up 400 yards of total offense. If you are playing the primetime or Monday-only slates, you need some exposure to this game, and Cousins isn’t a terrible way to get it. On the full week slates, I will likely avoid him.

Running Game: Matt Jones is nursing a shoulder injury but should be healthy enough to start this game. Rob Kelley has earned a role with a solid preseason. Chris Thompson will snag some third down snaps. This is a situation I will be staying far away from, as none of the trio is extremely talented and the team is liable to ride the hot hand during games.

Pass Catchers: This is arguably the greatest strength of the team. The Redskins have a great pair of complementary wideouts in deep threat DeSean Jackson and steady Pierre Garcon, and they have one of the best receiving tight ends in the league in Jordan Reed. Washington is likely to go with a pass-heavy approach because that’s what works for them, and that’s where the weakness is in the Pittsburgh defense. The strongest defensive back the team has is William Gay, but he is 31 years old. He ranked 34th out of 118 qualifiers in coverage last year (per PFF). All three receivers are in play, with Jackson best suited for GPPs, Garcon best suited for cash games, and Reed viable in any format. Whoever avoids Gay’s coverage the most gets an extra boost, as nobody else scares me in this Pittsburgh secondary.

The Takeaway: Washington will likely take to the air in this one. I don’t expect a huge year from Kirk Cousins, but he should play well against a weak Pittsburgh pass defense. He has a trio of viable targets at his disposal in DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and Jordan Reed.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco Niners (MONDAY NIGHT GAME #2)

Los Angeles Rams						San Francisco Niners
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	44	23.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	17.5	29	32	7		Offense
Opp. Defense						Opp. Defense	20.6	13	23	21
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Francisco Niners	15	32	17	9		Los Angeles Rams	8	23	8	21
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Britt	72	36	3	681			62	33	4	663
Austin	87	52	5	473			57	30	1	394
Cooper							19	13	0	153
Kendricks	40	25	2	245			46	30	3	326

Vegas Odds – LA (-2 1/2) / O/U 44

Notable injuries and suspensions: Will be updated closer to kickoff

LA Matchup Rating: 5.5
SF Matchup Rating: 5.0

Los Angeles Rams

Quarterback: The Rams are really starting Case Keenum? Why not just throw Jared Goff right into the fire? Keenum will be handing off to Todd Gurley and getting out of the way. Don’t waste your time.

Running Game: Todd Gurley might carry the ball 30 times if this game stays close. San Francisco ranked 29th in the NFL against the run last year, and Gurley is one of the best running backs in the league. The Rams may actually be able to control the clock with Gurley in this one, and that gives them the best chance to win. The only knock on Gurley is that he won’t be used much in the passing game or on third downs, but game flow isn’t likely to be a concern. If there was a week to use Gurley, this is it. The upcoming schedule is a tough one.

Pass Catchers: What’s worse than having Case Keenum as your starting quarterback? Well, having poor coaching along with Tavon Austin and Kenny Britt as your starting wide receivers might qualify. Austin can sometimes make a play via gadget run plays, but it’s tough to hitch your wagons to that. You can leave this group alone.

The Takeaway: It’s Todd Gurley or nothing for the Rams. You want no part of Case Keenum or the Rams passing game, unless you desperately want the late Monday night sweat. If you choose that option, you better have a six-pack ready to drown your sorrows.

San Francisco 49ers

Quarterback: The 49ers are really starting Blaine Gabbert? Why not just throw Colin Kaep…. oh yeah. Gabbert will be handing off to Carlos Hyde and getting out of the way. Don’t waste your time. I wouldn’t consider Gabbert even if he was guaranteed 60 pass attempts. Seriously, he is one of the worst starting quarterbacks I have seen over the last ten years, and he might be the actual worst. It’s hard to fathom that he still has a starting job.

Running Game: With Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers on the interior of the defensive line, the Rams should be better than 20th in the league against the run. That’s where they ended last season, but a big part of that was because teams could run the ball a lot while nursing late leads. Carlos Hyde is still in the concussion protocol, but he is expected to be cleared in time for this game. If he is a full go, you can use him here. If he is in any way limited, you’ll have to pass. Gurley is the safer pick of the running backs in this game.

Pass Catchers: The San Francisco receiving corps isn’t as bad as the situation on the other side of the ball, but it’s not much better. Torrey Smith is pretty much a deep threat only, and that doesn’t play well with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. You can go ahead and mark Smith down for the worst season of his career already. Quinton Patton is the other starting wide receiver, and there’s limited upside there. Don’t count on much from Vance McDonald at tight end.

The Takeaway: You’re still reading this? Congratulations, you’ve made it through the most boring game of the week! This will be a nice way to fall asleep on a Monday night after a great weekend of football. Oh, and as for the 49ers, I won’t be targeting their offensive players much this year, unless his name is Carlos Hyde. The Rams defense is actually a decent target in this game, as targeting a defense that is facing a Blaine Gabbert-led offense is a solid week-to-week strategy.

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