RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down: Week 1

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2016-10-20 19:05:57

Jump to Page 1 2 3 4

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.

Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get three months of Grinders Incentives for free ($75 value).

I am super excited to be writing these this year, though this took a long time to put together for the first week! Hopefully you enjoy the articles throughout the season. In the case of any late-breaking news, give me a follow on Twitter @stlcardinals84. I will do my best to update that frequently when things break on Sunday mornings. Thanks for reading, and good luck this season!

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos

Carolina Panthers						Denver Broncos
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	42	22.75				3	42	19.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	31.2	1	26	2		Offense	22.2	18	14	17
Opp. Defense	18.4	4	3	2		Opp. Defense	19.5	6	18	4
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Denver Broncos	2	12	2	23		Carolina Panthers	5	13	14	11
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Benjamin						Thomas	192	111	6	1,356
Ginn	100	46	10	791		Sanders	153	86	6	1,282
Funchess	67	34	6	506		Fowler	30	18	0	238
Olsen	138	89	8	1,294		Green	18	14	1	187

Vegas Odds – CAR (-3) / O/U 41 1/2

Notable injuries and suspensions: None

CAR Matchup Rating: 4.0
DEN Matchup Rating: 4.5

Carolina Panthers

Quarterback: Cam Newton is Cam Newton. He’s the best fantasy quarterback in the game, primarily because he adds an element with his legs that you can’t get with other signal callers these days. Everyone will be itching for daily fantasy football to be back, and you can bet that this game will be way over-owned in GPPs that begin on Thursday night. This sets up as a tough battle between two good defenses, and the Broncos are still an elite defense despite losing a couple of players in the offseason. I like Cam Newton as much as the next guy, but this isn’t the spot to overpay for his skills.

Running Game: Jonathan Stewart returns as the steady presence at running back for the Panthers. His upside is limited because Newton is just as likely to get the rushing touchdowns in the red zone, and Stewart isn’t overly explosive, so he doesn’t often break lengthy touchdown runs. He’s not a primary presence in the passing game and loses value in PPR formats. Cameron Artis-Payne could start to cut into Stewart’s workload at some point this season. Denver’s defense ranked 3rd in the NFL last year in rushing yards allowed, while they were the best unit in terms of yards per carry allowed at just 3.3 YPC. There’s no need to even consider Stewart here.

Pass Catchers: This is a pretty ugly spot for the season opener. There are rumors that Kelvin Benjamin might be on some sort of snap limitation. Ted Ginn, Jr. is nothing more than a boom-or-bust deep threat with awful hands. Devin Funchess is under-rated, but we don’t know how often he will be on the field. The only reliable option here is Greg Olsen, and he’s really the only Carolina weapon I am interested in. He should get a lot of attention with Denver’s elite corners shutting down the wide receivers.

The Takeaway: Yes, this is the first game of the season. Don’t go nuts. This game has one of the lowest totals of the week and features two good defenses. Greg Olsen is the only Carolina player on my radar against a Denver defense that is elite at every level.

Denver Broncos

Quarterback: In what comes as one of the bigger surprises of the preseason, Trevor Siemian has won the starting job in Denver over Mark Sanchez (who has now been cut) and Paxton Lynch. Siemian can throw a good deep ball, which should bode well for Demaryius Thomas to get some explosive plays this season. Carolina’s secondary is obviously not as dangerous without Josh Norman, but this is still a pretty solid unit. Don’t forget that Carolina is a road favorite in this game in a tough place to play. You can ignore Siemian in his first taste of NFL action. There are plenty of other value options at quarterback if you need to go there.

Running Game: Expect a fine bounce-back season from C.J. Anderson in 2016. He is a dynamic back who showed flashes of his brilliance at times last year, though the time-share with Ronnie Hillman became a giant pain in the rear for a while. Hillman is now a threat to be cut from the roster, while impressive young back Devontae Booker holds the #2 job. Booker should get 6-8 carries per game, but this is Anderson’s backfield. Denver will lean on him with a young quarterback at the helm, and I like him as a fantasy option even against a good Carolina defense. He is more of a tournament option, though, as there is risk against a team that ranked 4th in rush defense a year ago.

Pass Catchers: The top targets are clear in Denver, as Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are the 1A and 1B options. There isn’t a great third receiver, and the tight end spot hasn’t offered much since the departure of Julius Thomas a couple years ago. Virgiil Green is generating some interesting pre-season buzz, and perhaps he is a sneaky tight end target early in the year. I won’t be using any Denver pass catchers in Siemian’s first NFL start.

The Takeaway: The most viable option in Denver this week is C.J. Anderson, who should be leaned on heavily with Trevor Siemian making his first NFL start. Again, this is not a game you want to target very heavily, even though ownership will be inflated here. In fact, both defenses are interesting DFS targets if you want to take that path.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers						Atlanta Falcons
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	47	22.25				-3	47	25.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.4	20	20	4		Offense	21.2	21	6	18
Opp. Defense	21.6	14	11	13		Opp. Defense	26.1	26	16	9
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Atlanta Falcons	7	27	1	29		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	23	16	23	14
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Evans	148	74	3	1,208		Jones	203	136	8	1,871
Jackson	62	33	3	543		Sanu	54	36	0	411
Humphries	40	27	1	260		Hardy	36	21	0	194
Brate	30	23	3	288		Tamme	81	59	1	657

Vegas Odds – ATL (-3) / O/U 47 1/2

Notable injuries and suspensions: Julio Jones (ATL WR) – Fully expected to play, not on injury report

TB Matchup Rating: 7.0
ATL Matchup Rating: 8.0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback: Now we have our first interesting Sunday game right off the bat. The Bucs/Falcons tilt features a healthy total of 47 1/2 points on the Vegas board, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Tampa Bay offense be one of the nicer surprises of this season. Jameis Winston had an up-and-down rookie season that featured an underwhelming 22/15 TD/INT ratio, but he had his good moments and did end up throwing for over 4,000 yards on the season. He has one of the best wide receiving tandems in the league at his disposal, and game flow could certainly be in his favor here if the Bucs fall behind early. Atlanta ranked in the bottom half of the league last year in pass defense, and Winston will likely be low-owned here. He is a sneaky play, especially for GPPs and in multiple QB formats.

Running Game: Tampa Bay has the luxury of having two viable running back options in Doug Martin and Charles Sims, but they somewhat cancel each other out from a DFS perspective. Martin gets most of the early down and goal line work, but SIms is the passing down back and gets his share of carries throughout the game. It will likely end up being a 60/40 split in Martin’s favor, but Tampa Bay has also shown a tendency to ride the hot hand at times. I don’t mind Martin where he is affordable, but it’s hard to predict performance here when both guys are 100% healthy.

Pass Catchers: Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson create tough matchups for opposing defenses, and both of them are capable of being primary targets in the red zone. Jackson is on the down side of his career arc, but he is still fully capable of being a solid #2 option for the Jameis Winston. Evans, in comparison, is in the prime of his career and is one of the better receivers in the league today. The duo didn’t have great numbers last year against Atlanta (Jackson missed one of the games with injury), but they should be better this year now that Winston has a full year of seasoning. I’ll opt for Evans as the preferred target even though he will cost you a little more. The tight end battle between Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Cameron Brate is one to watch in the early weeks, but we don’t know enough to make a weekly DFS decision just yet. Leave that one alone for now. Keep an eye on the projected WR/CB matchups, as the receiver who avoids Desmond Trufant’s coverage the most does get a bit of a boost. Trufant was PFF’s 13th rated cornerback a year ago.

The Takeaway: There are going to be some points in this game. Jameis Winston is a sneaky, low-owned QB option, while Mike Evans is developing into one of the better receivers in the league. He caught all five of his targets in the third preseason game and could be in for a breakout campaign. Fire up that Winston/Evans GPP stack with confidence in Week 1, though it’s not the safe play you want in cash games.

Atlanta Falcons

Quarterback: At this stage of his career, Matt Ryan is who he is. He is not the top-five NFL quarterback that many folks expected when he was drafted, but he is not a bottom feeder, either. He is a slightly above average QB who benefits from having the superhuman Julio Jones catching passes in the same color jersey. Tampa Bay attempted to bolster their pass defense with the drafting of Florida alum Vernon Hargreaves in the first round, but he is by no means a shut down corner just yet. I won’t be using Ryan in DFS formats this week, but he should put up solid numbers at home against an average defense.

Running Game: I am not sold on Devonta Freeman getting a hefty workload, especially right out of the gate. The Falcons have made it a point to say that Tevin Coleman will have a role this year, especially in the early going. Tampa Bay ranked 11th in the NFL in rush defense a year ago, and this will not be a spot where I overpay for Freeman. I want to see how the team plans to use him before figuring out if he is viable in DFS. Perhaps taking the wait-and-see approach will burn me, but there are plenty of viable running back options this weekend.

Pass Catchers: Julio Jones is #good. If you can fit Julio into a DFS lineup, you can obviously use him. The big question in Atlanta this year is how they will use the newly acquired Mohamed Sanu. He always underwhelmed in Cincinnati despite playing alongside another elite receiver in A.J. Green, so it is fair to question how he will co-exist with Jones. There is some intrigue here, especially since Atlanta lacks a reliable #3 receiver and doesn’t use the tight end much. Sanu is best used as a WR #3 or flex play in your DFS lineups this week, especially on sites where he price tag is relatively inexpensive.

The Takeaway: Expect this to be a fun, back-and-forth game. Unfortunately, it’s hard to peg the fantasy production for Atlanta outside of the ever reliable Julio Jones. Mohamed Sanu is definitely one to watch, and he can be used in a pinch on sites where he is cheap. If you want to take a chance on Devonta Freeman, I can’t fault you for it, but I do worry about Tevin Coleman carving out a 35-40% timeshare in the early going.

Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans

Minnesota Vikings						Tennessee Titans
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3.5	42	23				3.5	42	19.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.0	19	31	5		Offense	18.7	28	23	25
Opp. Defense	26.4	27	8	18		Opp. Defense	18.4	4	7	17
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tennessee Titans	28	5	21	24		Minnesota Vikings	11	6	13	12
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Diggs	90	56	4	746		Matthews	61	43	4	662
Johnson	13	9	0	127		Sharpe
Treadwell						Wright	60	36	3	408
Rudolph	74	50	5	519		Walker	133	94	6	1,088

Vegas Odds – PICK EM / O/U 41

Notable injuries and suspensions: Jerick McKinnon (MIN RB) – Questionable (Ankle) / Kendall Wright (TEN WR) – Out (Hamstring)

MIN Matchup Rating: 5.5
TEN Matchup Rating: 5.0

Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback: Well, that escalated quickly. Teddy Bridgewater suffered a serious knee injury in practice and will miss the entire season. This left the well-traveled Shaun Hill to fill in as the Vikings starting quarterback. Then, as I literally started writing this article, the Vikings traded a first round pick to the Eagles in exchange for Sam Bradford. He will basically be a game manager tasked with handing the ball to Adrian Peterson and getting out of the way on a lot of occasions. He also will only have one week to get the hang of the offense, and reports now indicate that Hill may start the first game anyhow. There’s not much appeal here in a road date with Tennessee.

Running Game: Adrian Peterson is a legitimate athletic freak, but his limitations in the passing game curb his DFS appeal somewhat, especially on full PPR sites like DraftKings. Jerick McKinnon gets plenty of passing down work, and Matt Asiata gets the occasional goal line vulture at times. That said, Peterson is always capable of breaking a big one and generally gets all of the early down work. The matchup is reasonable against a Tennessee defense that ranked in the middle of the pack against the run a year ago. You can use Peterson if you want, but he’s better off used in non-PPR or half-PPR formats.

Pass Catchers: Stefon Diggs and Laquon Treadwell are intriguing young receivers, but it will take them time to develop a rapport with Sam Bradford and Shaun Hill. In addition, it’s not like Minnesota is going to be throwing the ball 35 times a game. There are better options on a full slate of games, especially against a respectable Tennessee pass defense that was in the top third of the league a year ago.

The Takeaway: Don’t get too excited with the VIkings. They are transitioning to a new quarterback that was acquired a week before the game, and the impact of that can’t be overstated. They are going on the road against an improving young team, and expect the offense to revolve around Adrian Peterson. He is probably the only guy you want to use here, and Tennessee might be a sneay good defensive option that likely won’t break the salary bank on most sites.

Tennessee Titans

Quarterback: Fairly or not, Marcus Mariota will always find himself being compared to Jameis Winston. His numbers lagged well behind Winston’s a year ago, but a lot of the criticism is unwarranted. Mariota simply doesn’t have the weapons at his disposal in order to be a consistent fantasy performer (more on this in the “pass catchers” section). Mariota is capable of some production with his legs, but it simply isn’t enough to put him in the fantasy conversation yet — especially in DFS formats.

Running Game: Derrick Henry as downright impressive in the preseason, and I am willing to bet dollars to donuts that the Titans are already regretting the DeMarco Murray acquisition. They have to be committed to Murray because of the contract they gave him, so expect Murray to be the lead dog in the backfield, at least until he gets injured. Henry should gradually see more time as the season goes along, especially since he is likely to be more productive on a per-touch basis. For now, I will avoid this situation like the plague as I really don’t like Murray’s declining skill set.

Pass Catchers: The top wide receiver on the Tennessee Titans is Tajae Sharpe. He has not yet played an NFL regular season snap, and he was drafted in the fifth round this year. That’s how dire things are in Tennesee. This is not a criticism of Sharpe, as that draft spot will likely end up being a steal for the Titans. Sharpe was a target monster at UMass and should be a fine PPR option this year. In fact, he is usable right out of the gate at minimum salary on DraftKings. Just make sure he ends up earning a starting role. The only other pass catcher of note in Tennessee is Delanie Walker, who should be one of the league’s better tight ends again this year. He’s cheap enough to consider as well, though I wouldn’t use him together with Sharpe.

The Takeaway: Tajae Sharpe is one of the better value plays of the opening week, especially for minimum salary on DraftKings. The only other notable fantasy option is Delanie Walker. I will avoid the running back situation as long as DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry are both healthy, though I expect Henry to gradually get more work as the season goes along.

Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles

Cleveland Browns						Philadelphia Eagles
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		6	43	18.5				-6	43	24.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	17.4	30	16	22		Offense	23.6	13	12	15
Opp. Defense	26.9	28	28	32		Opp. Defense	27.0	29	19	30
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Philadelphia Eagles	31	29	31	6		Cleveland Browns	29	14	32	8
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Coleman						Matthews	128	85	8	997
Pryor	8	1	0	42		Agholor	44	23	1	283
Gordon						Randle	90	57	8	797
Barnidge	125	79	9	1,043		Celek	35	27	3	398

Vegas Odds – PHI (-5 1/2) / O/U 43

Notable injuries and suspensions: Josh Gordon (CLE WR) – Out (Suspension)

CLE Matchup Rating: 5.0
PHI Matchup Rating: 6.5

Cleveland Browns

Quarterback: I hope Robert Griffin enjoys a career renaissance in Cleveland. I really do. I just don’t expect him to come firing right out of the gate with a still developing Corey Coleman and a suspended Josh Gordon. That leaves Terrelle Pryor as a primary receiving target. That, my friends, is why this is a hard pass even in a favorable matchup against the Eagles.

Running Game: The Cleveland running game is going to come down to game flow. If they happen to be ahead in games and grinding clock, Isaiah Crowell will be the primary back. If they are behind in games or playing hurry-up, Duke Johnson stands to benefit the most. Since Cleveland will likely be trailing in many games, Johnson is likely the more intriguing long-term option, especially in PPR formats. It’s a situation that is tough to peg for the opener, but Philadelphia presents a favorable matchup. They allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL a year ago. If you can find a spot where Duke Johnson is mega cheap, you can give him a look. However, there is plenty of other value at RB to where you don’t need to risk this if you don’t want to. We haven’t gotten to the other value options yet, but I promise they are coming.

Pass Catchers: Terrelle Pryor will basically come for minimum salary on almost every site. He’s a massive risk/reward option that you can possibly use in a GPP. In fact, you can probably make the same argument for Coleman. This is not an ideal spot, even though we usually like fantasy players who are facing the Eagles.

The Takeaway: Cleveland isn’t a great offense, especially while Josh Gordon serves his four game suspension. The matchup is there, but nobody on the Browns is a play you can feel totally comfortable with in cash games. Duke Johnson is my favorite GPP target of the bunch, especially where he is cheap and/or on full PPR sites. Terrelle Pryor and Corey Coleman are boom-or-bust WR options that can also be considered in a GPP format.

Philadelphia Eagles

Quarterback: Sam Bradford is now a Viking, so that leaves the keys to the Eagles offense in the hands of rookie Carson Wentz, though he is dealing with a rib injury and may be listed as questionable for this game. If he is out, that leaves Chase Daniel as the starter. Yikes. No thank you!

Running Game: Now locked into a starting role, this is yet another chance for Ryan Mathews to prove his worth in the NFL. The talent has always been there, but the production has never followed — primarily because he can never seem to stay healthy. If he can manage that this season (admittedly a big “if”), he will be a steal at his current DFS prices. He is better suited to sites like FanDuel that are 0.5 PPR, as Darren Sproles will continue to soak up most of the passing down work. This is a great matchup against the Browns, who held the league’s third worst rush defense a year ago.

Pass Catchers: Though Cleveland (sans Josh Gordon) and Tennessee can also make a claim, you can certainly argue that the Philadelphia receiving corps is the worst in the league. Jordan Matthews has awful hands, Nelson Agholor appears to be somewhat of a bust, and who knows what we can expect out of newly acquired Dorial Green-Beckham. If Joe Haden can stay healthy, this Cleveland secondary should be a lot better this season. They should still play well against a Wentz/Daniel-led offense that lacks a major receiving threat. The tight end position is perhaps the best part of this unit, but it’s always hard to peg who will get more targets and snaps between Zach Ertz and Brent Celek.

The Takeaway: I often enjoy taking a cheap flier on my defense picks, and for Week 1 that team is undoubtedly the Browns. Philadelphia is going to have some problems with turnovers, and defensive scoring is largely dependent on the unpredictable defensive touchdowns. Cleveland is one of the cheapest units on almost every site, so they have plenty of appeal here even though they don’t have the most talent in the league. If I use any skill player for the Eagles, it will definitely be Ryan Mathews. His health is a concern long-term, but at least we don’t have to worry much about that for DFS (as long as he can get through the current week).

Jump to Page 1 2 3 4