NFL Grind Down: Week 1 - Page Three
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Chicago Bears at Houston Texans
| Chicago Bears | Houston Texans | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | 44 | 19.75 | -4.5 | 44 | 24.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.9 | 22 | 24 | 11 | Offense | 19.9 | 26 | 21 | 16 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.2 | 11 | 2 | 11 | Opp. Defense | 24.8 | 20 | 4 | 22 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Houston Texans | 6 | 10 | 4 | 22 | Chicago Bears | 26 | 22 | 7 | 15 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jeffery | 94 | 54 | 4 | 807 | Hopkins | 203 | 117 | 11 | 1,590 | |
| White | Strong | 26 | 15 | 3 | 178 | |||||
| Royal | 50 | 37 | 1 | 238 | Shorts | 78 | 43 | 2 | 489 | |
| Miller | 46 | 34 | 5 | 439 | Fiedorowicz | 25 | 18 | 1 | 168 | |
Vegas Odds – HOU (-5) / O/U 44
Notable injuries and suspensions: Kevin White (CHI WR) – Questionable (Hamstring) / Will Fuller (HOU WR) – Fully expected to play; not on injury report
CHI Matchup Rating: 4.5
HOU Matchup Rating: 8.0
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: Almost all of the attention goes to J.J. Watt, but Houston has a formidable secondary that includes solid corners Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson. With Watt cleared to play in the opener and Jadeveon Clowney as healthy as he has been in a couple years, Houston’s defense has a lot of potential. They ranked 3rd against the pass a year ago, and the possibility of them scoring a defensive touchdown against the mistake-prone Jay Cutler is certainly a possibility. This is especially true if the Bears are in catch-up mode late in the game. Needless to say, I won’t be considering Cutler as a fantasy option.
Running Game: Jeremy Langford has established himself as the clear #1 back in Chicago with Matt Forte off to New York, and Langford was an effective stopgap option when Forte was injured at times last year. He’s not flashy or super dynamic, but he is capable of getting the ball 20 times in a game. Assuming he is the clear lead dog — which he was in the preseason when the starting unit played — his volume alone makes him viable. He is relatively inexpensive on FanDuel and DraftKings, and he is a guy I will consider for cash games. The only possible concern is game flow if the Bears fall behind. Houston was not as good against the run as they were against the pass last year, though they still ranked in the top ten in the league.
Pass Catchers: This is not the matchup to get excited over the Chicago pass catchers. Kevin White is intriguing and holds lots of promise, but he is still very raw at the NFL level. Alshon Jeffery will see plenty of double coverage from solid defensive backs in this game. The volume may be there, but I don’t expect the Chicago passing game to be that efficient in this one. White will be a nice cheap target later in the year, but that time hasn’t come yet. You can use Jeffery in a pinch if needed, but I will likely go elsewhere.
The Takeaway: Jeremy Langford is on the radar as a volume-based RB #2 or flex despite the tough matchup against Houston. Don’t expect a lot of positives from Jay Cutler in this one. The Houston defense is a primary target given the opportunity they may have to put a touchdown on the board at some point during this contest.
Houston Texans
Quarterback: This is going to be fun. The Bears could very well be without their top three cornerbacks for the opener, as Tracy Porter, Kyle Fuller, and Bryce Callahan are all questionable to doubtful for this game. The Bears have attempted to improve their defense with the signing of Danny Trevathan, and they should be better against the run this year. The injuries in the secondary, however, are going to leave them vulnerable against the pass. The main concern that I have here is that Brock Osweiler might not have to do a whole lot in this game. The Texans should control the game flow here and might be chewing clock by the fourth quarter. If the game stays close, though, Osweiler is a potentially sneaky value option in this game. He has some good weapons at his disposal and should be able to move the ball with ease.
Running Game: Even though the Bears should be better against the run this year, we can’t forget that they ranked just 22nd against the run a year ago. Lamar Miller has always been a fine producer on a per-touch basis, but he never got the chance to be a bell cow running back in Miami. That should change in Houston, where Miller is clearly atop the running back depth chart for a team that loves to run the football. It would not surprise me if he saw 22-25 touches in this game, and he is a capable pass-catcher as well. He won’t cost quite as much as the elite running back options, and he definitely lands in my top five this week on a per-dollar basis. This game sets up very well for Miller, and you can bet that he will embrace his role on a new team.
Pass Catchers: If the aforementioned three corners are all out for this game, the Bears literally have no chance of stopping DeAndre Hopkins. He is a top four receiving option this week, with the only concern being potential game flow issues if Houston racks up a big lead. Will Fuller may be a rookie, but he is a big play threat that will gladly take advantage of any breakdowns by the Bears defense and/or excessive coverage rolling Hopkins’ way. Hopkins is the safe play here, while Fuller is a fantastic boom-or-bust GPP option that should make a big play or two in this one.You can ignore the tight end position for Houston.
The Takeaway: Houston should have their way with the Bears. Game flow should indicate plenty of touches for Lamar Miller, but all the skill players are in play. Chicago’s defense is as banged up as a team usually is half way through the season, and that is not a good sign when you are heading into just the first game of the year. Fire up your Houston exposure with confidence.
Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars
| Green Bay Packers | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 47 | 26 | 4.5 | 47 | 21.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.5 | 14 | 25 | 8 | Offense | 23.5 | 14 | 10 | 27 | |
| Opp. Defense | 28.0 | 31 | 29 | 15 | Opp. Defense | 20.4 | 12 | 15 | 20 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 27 | 24 | 15 | 25 | Green Bay Packers | 14 | 11 | 10 | 17 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Nelson | Robinson | 151 | 80 | 14 | 1,400 | |||||
| Cobb | 138 | 82 | 7 | 867 | Hurns | 105 | 64 | 10 | 1,030 | |
| Abbrederis | 32 | 15 | 0 | 180 | Lee | 32 | 15 | 1 | 191 | |
| Rodgers | 97 | 65 | 8 | 566 | Thomas | 80 | 46 | 5 | 455 | |
Vegas Odds – GB (-4 1/2) / O/U 48
Notable injuries and suspensions: Chris Ivory (JAX RB) – Questionable (Calf)
GB Matchup Rating: 8.5
JAX Matchup Rating: 6.5
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: The Jaguars might be the most improved team in the NFL this season, but they get a tester in the opener against a good Green Bay team. Sure, the Jaguars have made improvements — massive ones — with the signings of Prince Amukamara and Malik Jackson and the draft-day steal of Myles Jack. This is not going to be a team we want to pick on a whole lot. Despite this, Aaron Rodgers is Aaron Rodgers. He is arguably the best quarterback in the league, and he will get his numbers week in and week out. There aren’t many safer options on the board, especially now that Jacksonville is talented enough to keep this game competitive for four quarters.
Running Game: There are two schools of thought on Eddie Lacy: School #1 says that Eddie Lacy struggles last year were 100% because he was overweight, and now he is suddenly going to transform into a fantasy beast. School #2 says that Eddie Lacy just stinks these days, fat or not. I fall somewhere in the middle. James Starks is still around to snag some carries and the passing down work, and it’s hard for me to get excited about Lacy, especially in full PPR formats. I want to see some results on the field before buying in, and I am not convinced that he is going to be the elite back that everyone expected a year ago before the weight issues surfaced. Jacksonville was a top five unit in terms of yards per carry allowed last season, and their improvements on defense aren’t going to make it any easier to run against them.
Pass Catchers: Don’t let the return of Jordy Nelson fool you. Randall Cobb is the most electric receiver in this unit, and he is criminally under-priced on a lot of DFS sites. Buy low on him with confidence. In the same vein, don’t expect greatness from Jordy Nelson out of the gate. Don’t forget that it has been almost 20 months since Nelson has played in a regular season football game. Let’s let him get his feet wet before rostering him, especially since he doesn’t come at a discount. As for the #3 spot, it appears as though the team still wants to trust Davante Adams and his stone hands. Outside of Cobb, the one target that interests me is Jared Cook. I expect him to thrive as another red zone target for Aaron Rodgers, and he is my breakout tight end pick for this season. It’s not a great matchup against a Jacksonville team that is strong over the middle, but he is a cheap tight end option that you can consider if you are saving salary at the spot.
The Takeaway: I really like the strides that Jacksonville is making, and it would not surprise me to see them compete in the wide open AFC South this year. This is a tough matchup, though, against an experienced, precision-like offense in Green Bay. Time will tell if Eddie Lacy is a premier fantasy option again now that he has lost weight, but I will take a wait-and-see approach with both he and Jordy Nelson. Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb, and Jared Cook are all possible options that you can use with more confidence, and Cobb seems way too cheap on a lot of DFS platforms.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: The hype train is in full effect as Blake Bortles enters his third season as Jacksonville’s starting quarterback. After posting an 11/17 TD/INT ratio in his rookie year, he improved drastically in 2015, throwing for 4,428 yards with a 35/18 TD/INT ratio. Adding just one interception along with more than tripling the number of touchdowns will certainly turn some heads. It doesn’t hurt that he has two burgeoning stars at wide receiver and a talented tight end, either. Jacksonville can most definitely hang in this game, and Bortles is one of the better mid-range targets on the board even against a solid Green Bay pass defense. Game flow should dictate plenty of pass attempts in this one, especially if Jacksonville happens to fall behind.
Running Game: Green Bay was much more vulnerable against the run than the pass a year ago, but we don’t have a lot of clarity in the Jacksonville backfield. Expect fairly close to an even split between Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon, with game flow dictating who gets the upper end of the workload. Yeldon will handle more of the passing down work, while Ivory will be the primary early-down guy. In the absence of an injury or a clear lead back, I will shy away in DFS for now.
Pass Catchers: Allen Hurns is good. Allen Robinson is very good. Jacksonville doesn’t have a reliable #3 wide receiver, so the Allen duo should continue to soak up targets week in and week out. Julius Thomas hasn’t had his best games in Jacksonville, but he could be set for a bounce-back year in 2016. In terms of price-per-dollar output, I would target Robinson first, Thomas second, and Hurns third in this matchup. Hurns is likely to see some snaps in the slot this year, and Green Bay’s pass defense is solid over the middle. A lot of this is splitting hairs, as there should be enough production to go around here.
The Takeaway: The passing game is firmly in play for the Jaguars, and this should be one of the more entertaining games of the week. Blake Bortles is a fine mid-range target at QB, while Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Julius Thomas form a great trio of receiving threats. Avoid the running game until we get some clarity on how the work load will shake out between T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory.
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks
| Miami Dolphins | Seattle Seahawks | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 44 | 16.75 | -10.5 | 44 | 27.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.4 | 27 | 13 | 23 | Offense | 25.4 | 7 | 19 | 3 | |
| Opp. Defense | 17.6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | Opp. Defense | 24.3 | 18 | 21 | 28 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 1 | 1 | 3 | 26 | Miami Dolphins | 17 | 31 | 22 | 16 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Landry | 167 | 111 | 4 | 1,159 | Baldwin | 122 | 91 | 15 | 1,193 | |
| Parker | 50 | 26 | 3 | 494 | Kearse | 87 | 63 | 7 | 813 | |
| Stills | 63 | 27 | 3 | 440 | Lockett | 78 | 55 | 7 | 774 | |
| Cameron | 70 | 35 | 3 | 386 | Graham | 74 | 48 | 2 | 605 | |
Vegas Odds – SEA (-7) / O/U 44
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jay Ajayi (MIA RB) – Out (Acting Like a Child) / Thomas Rawls (SEA RB) – Fully expected to play, may have snaps limited / Jimmy Graham (SEA TE) – Questionable (Knee)
MIA Matchup Rating: 3.5
SEA Matchup Rating: 7.0
MIami Dolphins
Quarterback: I’m not a Ryan Tannehill apologist, and I’m not a Ryan Tannehill hater, either. Then again, I have no interest in Ryan Tannehill on the road in Seattle. Maybe another day.
Running Game: The Dolphins had a great talent in Lamar Miller, and they never used him as extensively as they should have. That will not change with the injury-prone Jay Ajayi and Arian Foster in the backfield now. Oh, and have I mentioned that they are seven point underdogs on the road in Seattle? Pass.
SATURDAY UPDATE – With Jay Ajayi ruled out, Arian Foster suddenly becomes very relevant. He likely won’t stay healthy all season, but we don’t have to worry about that for DFS. He will likely be featured extensively in the offense and is squarely in play as a volume-based RB2 or FLEX, though he is far from a must play.
Pass Catchers: Between Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker, Jordan Cameron, and impressive rookie Leonte Carroo in the fold, there are five solid receivers to get targets in Miami. This is not going to be an easy situation to peg on a weekly basis, especially in the opener where they face the team that ranked second in the league in pass defense and has a solid secondary at every position. Do you want to target receivers against Richard Sherman, Jeremy Lane, Earl Thomas, and Kam Chancellor? I sure don’t.
The Takeaway: Let’s keep this one simple: Don’t use anyone. Feel free to use the Seattle defense.
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback: This could be the best fantasy season yet for Russell Wilson, as he may be asked to do a bit more with Marshawn Lynch having retired after last season. Like Cam Newton and Tyrod Taylor, Wilson adds some fantasy appeal with his ability to run. Miami’s secondary is setting up to be one of the weakest in the league this year, and I have no problem using Wilson if he fits your roster build in this opening game.
Running Game: The retirement of Marshawn Lynch opened up the door for Thomas Rawls, who was very impressive when he had the feature back duties a year ago. The hype train de-railed quickly, however, as Rawls was hampered by an ankle injury in camp. The Christine Michael hype train then entered mass hysteria mode, though the Seahawks have confirmed that this is Rawls’ job. Assuming he is healthy, expect him to get around 70% of the work in this game. He is a decent, if not great, play in this spot. Miami should be better against the run than the pass this year, though last year’s results don’t show that.
Pass Catchers: I am going to go out a limb and say we see some regression from Doug Baldwin this year. His touchdown pace from last season is simply not sustainable for a receiver of his stature, though he could continue to see plenty of red zone targets if Jimmy Graham is unable to suit up for this game. Jermaine Kearse and Tyler Lockett are the next two receivers in line, but Seattle is a team that doesn’t throw the ball 35+ times a game. Wilson is one of those quarterbacks that you don’t need to pair up with a wide receiver in a GPP, because Wilson can do damage either with small volume or with his legs.
The Takeaway: Russell Wilson is a fine option and could be asked to do a lot more this season with Marshawn Lynch having retired. The rest of the team is fringe-worthy at best. Regression will likely hit Doug Baldwin this year, while Thomas Rawls is still working his way back from injury. Seattle should control this game, and Rawls is an interesting option if he is declared fully ready to go.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
| New York Giants | Dallas Cowboys | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 49 | 22.75 | -3.5 | 49 | 26.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.3 | 4 | 7 | 19 | Offense | 17.2 | 31 | 27 | 9 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.4 | 16 | 5 | 22 | Opp. Defense | 27.6 | 30 | 32 | 24 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10 | 28 | 6 | 1 | New York Giants | 30 | 25 | 24 | 31 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Beckham | 158 | 96 | 13 | 1,450 | Bryant | 72 | 31 | 3 | 401 | |
| Shepard | Williams | 93 | 52 | 3 | 840 | |||||
| Cruz | Beasley | 75 | 52 | 5 | 536 | |||||
| Donnell | 41 | 29 | 2 | 223 | Witten | 104 | 77 | 3 | 712 | |
Vegas Odds – PICK ‘EM / O/U 45 1/2
Notable injuries and suspensions: Tony Romo (DAL QB) – Out (Back)
NYG Matchup Rating: 7.0
DAL Matchup Rating: 7.0
New York Giants
Quarterback: Dallas is trotting out a rookie fourth round pick at quarterback against the veteran in Eli Manning, and this game is still a pick’em in Vegas. The signs of decline are starting to show for Eli Manning, who has taken a lot of hits throughout his career. Dallas’ defense was ravaged by injuries last season, and they should be better in 2016. Despite the injury woes, they still ranked fifth against the pass. There’s no reason to reach for a mid-range option like Manning in this spot.
Running Game: The Giants have finally scrapped their trio-running back approach, and they have released goal line vulture Andre Williams. That leaves Rashad Jennings as the clear lead back in New York, and he is a capable player that can be used as a three down guy. Shane Vereen will still see his share of hurry up and third down action, but Jennings is going to get the majority of the carries in competitive games. Dallas can be exploited via the run game, and Jennings is one of my favorite sleeper targets of the week. He won’t be highly owned given the amount of buzz on some other cheap guys.
Pass Catchers: Odell Beckham? He’s good. Use him if you can fit him in, of course. The biggest questions in New York are at the other receiver spots. Sterling Shepard has been generating some buzz in the preseason, and he is going to open the year as a two-wide starter. You will not get him this cheap for the rest of the season, and he is definitely in play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I’m not buying into Victor Cruz until we see him make it through a full game.
The Takeaway: Rashad Jennings is one of my favorite sleepers of the week and should perform well if he has a clear path to the majority of the carries. Though I am not using Eli Manning, you can use Odell Beckham Jr. (because he is a freak athlete) or Sterling Shepard (because he is massively under-priced). This will be a close, fairly high scoring game, so there is some fantasy appeal in this one.
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: Welcome to Dak-Mania. Tony Romo is injured again, and impressive rookie Dak Prescott will come right out of the gates as the Dallas starter. Because DFS pricing was released before preseason games even started, Prescott is basically minimum salary everywhere. He won’t be asked to win games by himself, but he is a capable quarterback that can also do damage via the run game. He doesn’t need to produce much to pay off his cheap price tag, and you can expect him to be the highest owned quarterback of the week. That’s hard to believe for a guy that has yet to take an NFL snap and was drafted in the fourth round. In GPPs, you can certainly play the game theory angle of fading Prescott. If you do that, you better play….
Running Game: Ezekiel Elliott. I expect Dallas to keep the ball on the ground as much as they can in this game, and that will start with 20+ carries from their first round pick. The Giants were weak against the run last year, and Dallas has not hid their plans to make Elliott their workhorse. If you are not playing Prescott, I don’t think there is any way you can fade Elliott. Dallas is going to get some yards, and you simply have to play one of the two in a favorable matchup, unless you think they are going to get shut down at home by a below average defense.
Pass Catchers: Since lots of folks will be playing Prescott, you can be sure that a lot of those folks will be pairing him with an over-priced Dez Bryant that is priced based on having Tony Romo under center. As with Russell Wilson, you don’t HAVE to pair Prescott with anyone. If you do, you could even pivot to a safety valve like Jason Witten or a boom-or-bust threat like Terrance Williams, who is very cheap, especially on DraftKings. There are plenty of ways to skin this cat, but Bryant will be over-owned in relative terms.
The Takeaway: I think this will be the Ezekiel Elliott show. Prescott will be massively owned, and it makes sense given his price tag and newfound role. What to do with this Dallas team is one of the bigger game theory discussions of this week, and it’s not a decision to be taken lightly.
