NFL Grind Down: Week 10
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get three months of Grinders Incentives for free ($75 value).
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
| Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Lambeau Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.5 | 48 | 18.25 | -11.5 | 48 | 29.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.6 | 31 | 11 | 32 | Offense | 25.4 | 10 | 24 | 15 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.9 | 12 | 24 | 28 | Opp. Defense | 30.6 | 32 | 21 | 30 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Green Bay Packers | 22 | 13 | 12 | 25 | Detroit Lions | 29 | 20 | 23 | 23 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Johnson | 78 | 48 | 3 | 659 | Cobb | 68 | 40 | 5 | 498 | |
| Tate | 69 | 40 | 1 | 391 | Adams | 28 | 17 | 0 | 193 | |
| Fuller | 7 | 3 | 0 | 61 | Jones | 37 | 24 | 6 | 483 | |
| Ebron | 33 | 23 | 3 | 292 | Rodgers | 43 | 28 | 4 | 235 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Calvin Johnson (DET, Questionable), James Jones, Eddie Lacy (GB, Questionable), Ty Montgomery (GB, Doubtful)
DET Matchup Rating: 2.5
GB Matchup Rating: 7.5
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: Matthew Stafford (FD $6,900, DK $5,400) hasn’t been great this season, but it hasn’t been a consistent level of terrible. The UGA product has four multi-touchdown games, and four multi-interception games. His yardage totals have been poor outside of his team’s only win (against the equally bad Bears), but at his prices, 225 yards and a couple of touchdowns would be a nice return. Can we count on that against the Packers? Probably not. In their eight games this season, they’ve allowed more than one touchdown only three times, and those three (Wilson, Rivers, Newton) are clearly ahead of Stafford in terms of quality this season. Other passers against the Packers have combined to complete only 54% of their passes for 231 yards per game, with .6 touchdowns and 1.6 interceptions per contest. That’s probably what we should expect from Stafford, but it’s impossible to rule out a couple of extra touchdowns to provide nice value in a tournament.
Running Game: No Lions running back has received more than 14 carries in a game this season, and the best rushing performance to date from a back was 50 yards and a touchdown by Ameer Abdullah (FD $5,600, DK $3,400), who has since failed to reach 50 rushing yards or rush for a touchdown in any game since. He got only one touch in his team’s most recent game, but it’s only a matter of time before the hapless Lions turn the keys over to him instead of Joique Bell (FD $5,200, DK $3,200). Bell gets the most volume, but does nothing with it. On PPR sites, Theo Riddick (FD $5,300, DK $3,300) remains the Detroit back to target, since he’s begun running the ball on occasion to add to his handful (or more) targets per week. With a huge deficit looming in this game, Riddick should catch quite a few passes as the Lions try to keep up. You can use him in a GPP on a PPR site.
Pass Catchers: Calvin Johnson (FD $8,000, DK $7,500) is dealing with an injury that should not hold him back, but may hold down his ownership percentages. The talented corners for Green Bay will be a challenge, but not one that can reliably hold back one of the best wideouts in league history. Sam Shields has been dealing with injuries, as well, and did not play in Week 9, but got in a limited practice to start Week 10. The Packers will have a capable corner to cover Johnson no matter what, but don’t let that stop you. Number one receivers have performed well above average against the Packers this season, according to Football Outsiders, as Demaryius Thomas, Keenan Allen and Jeremy Maclin all had huge games, setting a precedent for a GPP-winning sort of outing for Megatron. Golden Tate (FD $6,300, DK $4,600) and the rest of the receiving corps don’t have the same “matchup-proof” recommendation status, so at wide receiver, stick to Calvin. Tight ends have had moderate levels of success against the Packers, so Eric Ebron (FD $5,300, DK $3,300) is worth a look on DraftKings and other sites where he comes at a significant discount compared to the rest of the tight ends on the board.
The Takeaway: Calvin Johnson is a solid GPP play, and Theo Riddick and Eric Ebron will be under the radar and are worth a look on sites where they are priced at a bargain. Otherwise, the Lions face a very tough task on the road against the far superior Packers.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (FD $9,200, DK $7,500) is one of the top overall plays this weekend as he’ll take on a Lions defense that ranks 30th against the pass according to Football Outsiders, and 31st per numberFire. They’ve allowed the fifth-most points per game to the position, which has come both through the air (14 passing touchdowns allowed) and on the ground (remember Alex Smith and his 78 rushing yards in Week 8?). Rodgers has at least 14 rushing yards in every game this season, with upside for three or four extra points with his legs on top of what could be a very strong day through the air. The running back situation is a bit unsettled for the Packers, but there’s nothing unsettled about their All-Pro quarterback. Fire up Rodgers in any format this weekend.
Running Game: According to Rotoworld and multiple reports, Mike McCarthy has named James Starks (FD $6,000, DK $4,900) as the starting running back for the Packers, but admits that Eddie Lacy (FD $6,000, DK $5,500) will still be a part of a “one-two punch.” This makes both players painful to roster in any cash game lineups, even against a defense ranked 29th against the run according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, and that has allowed the seventh-most points to the position on the year. Starks has been the better back this year and deserves a spot in your lineups, but for cash games, I’d rather invest in the Green Bay passing game. Still, with 30 points expected to be scored (according to the Vegas odds), there will be touchdowns to be had for everyone, but which back will score them?
Pass Catchers: When the Packers needed a score at the end of the game against Carolina, they ran a designed play to get Randall Cobb (FD $7,700, DK $6,700) the ball in the end zone. The Panthers got to Aaron Rodgers quickly and Cobb didn’t get his second touchdown of the day, but 99 yards and a score on 12 targets is an encouraging stat line for a player who was in a slump for all of October and the start of November. Cobb spends most of his time playing in the slot, which will line him up against any of the various below-average players the Lions utilize at that position. Outside corner Darius Slay is halfway decent, according to Pro Football Focus, but no player who spends time in the slot has a favorable grade according to their evaluators. Cobb is primed for a huge game, and is a core play this weekend. You should have either Cobb or Rodgers in your cash lineups to get exposure to this offense that could score four, five, or more touchdowns.
The Takeaway: Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb are core plays, while James Starks is a secondary cash option and a good tournament play if you’re going with the New England passing game (or some other passing game) instead. The defense is in play, at home, against a Detroit team that leads the NFL in turnovers.
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Dallas Cowboys | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Raymond James Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 43 | 20.75 | -1.5 | 43 | 22.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.0 | 26 | 25 | 8 | Offense | 22.6 | 18 | 26 | 7 | |
| Opp. Defense | 28.9 | 29 | 11 | 15 | Opp. Defense | 25.5 | 21 | 9 | 18 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 28 | 11 | 18 | 19 | Dallas Cowboys | 8 | 32 | 5 | 12 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Bryant | 21 | 12 | 1 | 164 | Evans | 73 | 32 | 1 | 538 | |
| Williams | 47 | 23 | 2 | 340 | Jackson | 40 | 21 | 2 | 319 | |
| Beasley | 41 | 31 | 2 | 326 | Dye | 9 | 3 | 1 | 15 | |
| Witten | 57 | 44 | 2 | 403 | Seferian-Jenkins | 10 | 7 | 2 | 139 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Dez Bryant, Christine Michael, Matt Cassel (DAL, Probable), Vincent Jackson (TB, Doubtful), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TB, Questionable)
DAL Matchup Rating: 4.0
TB Matchup Rating: 4.5
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: Matt Cassel (FD $6,300, DK $5,000) was supposed to be the “aggressive” quarterback who could replace Brandon Weeden and get the Dallas offense moving. And while he did throw three touchdowns on Sunday night, he’s still below league average in aDOT (average depth of target) according to Pro Football Focus. He’s shown he can at least keep the offense moving in a good matchup, which he certainly has this week against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay ranks 24th in DVOA against the pass, and has allowed the fifth-most points to quarterbacks this season. The Bucs have holes all over their defensive backfield where receivers can settle down and receive easy throws, so Cassel should be able to pick his spots and put together a decent game. He’s not a good enough player to trust in cash games, but if you’re punting in a tournament, you could do worse.
Running Game: With NBA season well underway, many DFS players are reminding themselves that volume and opportunity can often be the only necessary ingredients for fantasy sports success. This is not as true in the NFL as it is in the NBA, but for Darren McFadden (FD $7,000, DK $4,900), even in a fairly tough matchup, it’s a principle we can rely upon. McFadden has 29 or more combined targets and carries in each of his last three games, and while he’s only scored once, he’s gone over 100 total yards in each game, and is the backbone of the Dallas offense with Tony Romo out and the running back situation currently a total mess. The Bucs rank tenth in run defense according to Football Outsiders, and have allowed only 3.7 yards per carry and five rushing touchdowns all season. McFadden will get his opportunities, especially as a receiver out of the backfield, and should come close to value, or hit value. But don’t expect a blow-up game from the veteran back. He’s worthy of a spot in your cash games based on volume and price alone, but he doesn’t have a ton of upside thanks to a tricky matchup.
Pass Catchers: It’s a shame that Dez Bryant (FD $8,100, DK $7,800) is still priced like Dez Bryant when Tony Romo is under center, because this would be a great week to take advantage of a cheap Bryant against a defense that won’t be able to slow him down. The Bucs rank seventh in points allowed to opposing wideouts, with 100-yard games coming from Dez’s fellow stars Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham Jr. Dez is capable of huge plays and a big fantasy day without a capable quarterback under center, we’ve seen that already, but not reliably enough for use in cash games. Cole Beasley (FD $5,600, DK $3,000) saw a crazy jump in usage last week, finding open spaces for Cassel’s short throws, and will likely remain a part of the offense this week against a Bucs defense that gives up room underneath and struggles covering slot receivers. His price on DraftKings is incredibly appealing, but his volume track record is concerning. Still, he’s a viable play in cash games there (and on other PPR sites where he’s similarly priced) because of the very low threshold required to hit value. The Bucs have been average against tight ends, and Jason Witten (FD $5,600, DK $5,100) is an average tight end. When considering his average price, there’s not much upside or value to be found here.
The Takeaway: McFadden and Beasley could sneak their way onto a cash lineup if you’re feeling a bit brave, but otherwise, use those two and Bryant in tournament lineups, with an occasional Cassel sprinkled in as a punt pivot from some of the more popular cheap options.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: Another week of daily fantasy football, another Jameis Winston (FD $6,800, DK $5,000) performance that returned value. He doesn’t have it all figured out just yet, but he continues to be priced in the bargain range despite consistently reaching value thresholds on a weekly basis. It’s never pretty (last week’s performance needed a rushing touchdown to get him to the mark), but the Bucs can’t rely on their running game alone, and Winston has the tools and talent to generate big plays and move the ball down the field. His floor is pretty stable, and his volume has been there most of the time, so even in what should be a fairly slow game against the Cowboys (who run the slowest offense in the league), he should fire off 25 or more passes, run the ball a couple of times, and only needs to find the end zone once on the ground or twice through the air to be in business as a cash game foundation. Eli Manning was held out of the end zone in his two meetings with Dallas, but every other quarterback to face Jason Garrett’s team has thrown at least one score, but none with a ton of upside. Winston is a cheap, secondary cash game play under center.
Running Game: Both Doug Martin (FD $6,700, DK $5,600) and Charles Sims (FD $5,400, DK $3,500) lost a fumble in last week’s loss to the Giants. And while neither scored a touchdown, Sims had the decidedly better day on the ground, breaking off a 59-yard run and totaling 78 yards on only eight attempts. This will only reinforce the team’s decision to cut into Martin’s workload, as the two split carries more evenly this past week after a few weeks with Martin in the lead role. The Dallas defense is much easier to run against than it is to pass against, and Martin has been the preferred option for the Bucs when the game is close, so we could see a bounce-back game from him. But we could also see a Sims breakout, which may involve Martin vulturing touchdowns as the team’s preferred red zone back (23 red zone rushes to Sims’ 11). Martin would be the tournament option I’d prefer, but Sims’ passing game skills make him a decent play on PPR sites.
Pass Catchers: Vincent Jackson (FD $6,000, DK $4,700) does not seem to be 100% just yet, and as we saw with Austin Seferian-Jenkins (FD $5,300, DK $2,800) this past week, and Mike Evans (FD $7,700, DK $6,800) earlier this season, Lovie Smith is not afraid to hold out his key players if they’re dealing with injuries. Jackson’s return would be a huge help for Winston, who needs more targets in the worst way, but would make Evans a lot less appealing, and would put a damper on ASJ’s return to action. Evans has seen very strong target totals for most of the season, especially in games with Jackson out, but has been frustratingly inconsistent with those looks. He’s dropping passes and generally looking less like the breakout star we saw last season, and more like the raw prospect he was supposed to be coming out of Texas A&M. If Jackson is back, I suspect he’ll immediately regain the trust of his young quarterback and be a sneaky option for tournaments, but none of these players are strong plays against a Dallas pass defense that ranks 26th against receivers and tight ends in terms of fantasy points allowed this season. If Jackson is out, Evans and Seferian-Jenkins are GPP-worthy thanks to probable volume alone.
The Takeaway: The Bucs don’t have a great offense, but they’ve put together good enough performances to take them seriously in daily fantasy. The injury situation at receiver will dictate where the values are in the passing game, and how high of a ceiling Winston has under center, while either running back could have a big game against a susceptible Dallas run defense.
Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans
| Carolina Panthers | Tennessee Titans | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | LP Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5 | 43.5 | 24.25 | 5 | 43.5 | 19.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 28.5 | 4 | 29 | 2 | Offense | 19.9 | 27 | 20 | 23 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.4 | 15 | 6 | 17 | Opp. Defense | 20.6 | 11 | 15 | 15 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tennessee Titans | 23 | 5 | 14 | 24 | Carolina Panthers | 10 | 24 | 10 | 18 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Brown | 27 | 16 | 3 | 254 | Wright | 46 | 28 | 3 | 364 | |
| Ginn | 51 | 21 | 3 | 406 | Douglas | 28 | 14 | 1 | 148 | |
| Funchess | 25 | 10 | 1 | 161 | Hunter | 27 | 18 | 1 | 217 | |
| Olsen | 69 | 37 | 5 | 584 | Walker | 52 | 42 | 3 | 456 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jonathan Stewart (CAR, Questionable), Kendall Wright (TEN, Doubtful)
CAR Matchup Rating: 5.5
TEN Matchup Rating: 2.5
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: Cam Newton (FD $8,200, DK $7,000) hasn’t been particularly efficient or consistent as a passer this season, but when he puts it all together, he can be one of the top options in all of fantasy football. He’s gone over 28 FanDuel points three times this season, most recently in Week 9 against the Packers. He’s arguably his team’s best rushing option, and definitely the backbone of the passing game. This creates an excellent combination for daily fantasy purposes, and since his price is still a tier below the top guys, he presents an avenue to a different roster construction this week when compared to players who go with Rodgers or Brady. Matt Ryan is the only quarterback to fail to score twice against the Titans this season, who have allowed the tenth-most points to opposing quarterbacks despite a respectable ranking of seventh in DVOA against the pass. Tyrod Taylor was able to run for 76 yards and a score against Tennessee, something we could see Newton replicate this weekend, along with 200+ passing yards and a score through the air. And since he has upside for more as a runner and a passer, he’s viable for both tournaments and cash games.
Running Game: Newton and Jonathan Stewart (FD $6,600, DK $4,300) are responsible for a vast majority of the team’s rushing attack, with Stewart leading the team in carries and settling into a role with 20 touches per game in recent weeks. This week’s game against the Titans should see more of the same, and something has to give with this Titans run defense this week. Tennessee ranks outside of the top-20 against the run, according to numberFire and Football Outsiders, yet they rank 30th in points allowed, largely thanks to their ability to limit backs from getting into the end zone. Running backs have scored only four times all season against the Titans, a trend that could continue with Stewart, who has scored only three times this year, or that could be broken with the Carolina back finding the end zone once or twice. He’s going to get the work, so there’s potential, but the Titans’ track record this season is slightly discouraging.
Pass Catchers: One week after a game which saw Ted Ginn (FD $5,100, DK $3,400) receive ten targets and struggle to hold onto any of them, the wide receivers for the Panthers had a much more balanced workload in Week 9. This takes away the fantasy potential for all of them, as Ginn was previously receiving a somewhat steady volume of passes, and now it’s probable that the Panthers spread the ball out at this position. Greg Olsen (FD $6,300, DK $6,300) remains the most capable and consistent player who catches passes for Newton in the Panther offense, and is the guy you want to stack with in tournaments. The Titans have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season, and Olsen is among the game’s best at the position.
The Takeaway: Newton is a top quarterback play this week, and Olsen is among the best at tight end. Stewart will see plenty of volume, and it’s up to you to determine whether the Titan’s ability to keep backs out of the end zone will be trumped by Stewart’s 20+ carries in a game the Panthers should win fairly easily.
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: The Panthers have a very tough pass defense, with a star corner in Josh Norman, and are not the same kind of defense we’ve seen Marcus Mariota (FD $7,300, DK $5,300) have success against this season. The Oregon product dropped four touchdowns on the Bucs and Saints, but their NFC South counterparts from Carolina have a much better defense, more in line with the Buffalo defense that kept Mariota in check in Week 5. That was the only game in which the rookie passer failed to score, and he should be in for a repeat performance here. He’s one of the least attractive bargain passers this weekend, and isn’t worth a spot in your lineups.
Running Game: Both sides of the ball feature rushing defenses that have inconsistencies between advanced metrics and fantasy points allowed to running backs. While the Titans appear to be worse against the run than their fantasy totals would suggest, the Panthers seem like they’re better than fantasy points allowed would lead us to believe. Carolina ranks 12th in points allowed to backs, just three points per game shy of Dolphins and Browns, yet they rank 11th in DVOA against the run, just three percentage points behind the Broncos. Antonio Andrews (FD $6,000, DK $3,700) may have found a role as the lead back for the Titans, but in a game his team should lose, against a defense that has underperformed from a fantasy standpoint this season, I think he’s far too risky for any sort of major daily fantasy investments.
Pass Catchers: With Kendall Wright likely out, the Titans receiving corps is tough to trust, but dripping in potential. Dorial Green-Beckham (FD $5,200, DK $3,200) and Justin Hunter (FD $5,000, DK $3,100) both have upside, but see the coverage of Josh Norman and Charles Tillman more often than not, leaving them with a wide range of possibilities, including a zero for the afternoon. Harry Douglas (FD $4,500, DK $3,200) is too bad of a receiver to trust, even if he’ll see snaps in the slot against Carolina’s weakest corner, Bene Benwikere. So much like the Panthers, that leads us to the tight end, Delanie Walker (FD $5,900, DK $4,700), who is the most talented pass catcher and the one to use in daily fantasy this week. The Panthers allowed a big game to Jimmy Graham, and gave up a decent outing to Zach Ertz and Coby Fleener. Walker is somewhere in the middle of those three players in terms of his talent level, so the potential is there for a good game. His volume is secure, and he proved how high his upside can be last weekend.
The Takeaway: Delanie Walker is the top option on this offense, while either of the talented, younger receivers are worth a spot in a GPP lineup if Wright is out. The running game doesn’t hold a ton of potential, but Antonio Andrews does seem to have a bigger, more trustworthy role now, and he’s viable as a tournament play.