NFL Grind Down: Week 11 - Page Two
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Philadelphia Eagles | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Lincoln Financial Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 45 | 19.5 | -6 | 45 | 25.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.2 | 24 | 22 | 5 | Offense | 23.6 | 14 | 11 | 8 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.4 | 9 | 19 | 19 | Opp. Defense | 26.3 | 25 | 10 | 11 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 19 | 7 | 30 | 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 23 | 11 | 15 | 17 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Evans | 86 | 40 | 1 | 664 | Matthews | 80 | 51 | 2 | 552 | |
| Jackson | 40 | 21 | 2 | 319 | Huff | 27 | 18 | 2 | 174 | |
| Dye | 12 | 4 | 1 | 26 | Cooper | 23 | 11 | 2 | 205 | |
| Seferian-Jenkins | 10 | 7 | 2 | 139 | Celek | 13 | 11 | 2 | 205 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Vincent Jackson (TB, Questionable), Sam Bradford, Ryan Mathews (PHI, Out)
TB Matchup Rating: 3.5
PHI Matchup Rating: 6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: The Eagles are always a tough team to read when considering opponent’s matchups, as they have an opportunistic defense that is put in a tough spot by an up-tempo, inefficient offense. The Eagles face a ton of plays thanks to their offense’s increased pace, and they generate plenty of turnovers (third-most in the NFL). But they also allow a healthy amount of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and especially to opposing wideouts. Jameis Winston (FD $6,800, DK $5,000) remains cheap, and continues to scrape together decent fantasy point performances despite a general lack of efficiency as a passer. He’s good for at least 14 FanDuel points per game, but his ceiling isn’t much higher than that. The boost in passing attempts in this game adds a bit of value to his bargain price tag, but there are better cheap options at QB this week (Smith, Stafford, Hasselbeck, and even Sanchez).
Running Game: Doug Martin (FD $6,600, DK $5,300) remains the lead back for this Tampa Bay offense, and he’s shown signs of still being the big-play back we remember from his rookie season. This week’s matchup with the Eagles will be a tough one, as Philly ranks eighth in DVOA against the run, and 25th in points allowed to opposing backs. In recent weeks, backs have found a bit more success against this defense, as Lamar Miller, Darren McFadden and Jonathan Stewart all had respectable outings against the Eagles. This is a trend in the right direction for Martin, who should see 20 touches, and doesn’t need to do much to hit value. He’ll need to score, something backs have only done three times against the Eagles this year, but that’s what makes him an under-the-radar tournament play.
Pass Catchers: With Vincent Jackson (FD $5,900, DK $4,700) and Austin Seferian-Jenkins (FD $5,100, DK $2,500) both looking doubtful for this week’s contest, Mike Evans (FD $8,000, DK $7,300) should see all the targets he can handle against a defense that ranks 31st against opposing WR1 in DVOA. The Eagles allow plenty of points to wideouts thanks to their offensive tempo forcing their defense onto the field more often, and they struggle to keep up with opposing top wideouts. Evans hasn’t been great this season, as his hands have been incredibly inconsistent, but the Bucs don’t have anyone else to target in the passing game. Evans is a strong tournament play if Jackson and ASJ are out, and if either one suits up, he’s still viable. If all three play, things get a bit more complicated. Jackson will likely soak up some targets from Evans, as the veteran was a preferred target for Winston prior to his injury. We can’t be sure how much ASJ will play if he’s active, but he has touchdown upside for a cheap price.
The Takeaway: The Bucs have a pretty tame offense, but the production is focused on just a few players, so there’s potential for big fantasy days from Evans and Martin, while Winston could piece together another decent return on investment.
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: Tampa Bay has a bad pass defense, which is great news for the Eagles, who are forced into starting Mark Sanchez (FD $6,400, DK $5,000) as Sam Bradford recovers from a pair of upper body injuries. Sanchez is capable of posting decent fantasy numbers as a part of this offense, and he can’t be much worse than Sam Bradford has been this season, so at his discounted price, he’s a strong value play this weekend. Matt Cassel struggled against Lovie Smith’s defense, but prior to Week 10, the Bucs had allowed multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, and rank 24th in DVOA against the pass on the season. Sanchez is a fine option in tournaments and a possibility for cash games against Tampa Bay.
Running Game: Running backs don’t find the same sort of success against the Buccaneers, as Tampa Bay have the fourth-best DVOA run defense, and rank 21st in fantasy points allowed to the position. Alfred Blue hammered out 139 rushing yards on 31 carries a couple of months ago, but no other back has gone over 88 yards in a game against the Bucs, and only three other backs have rushed for a touchdown. DeMarco Murray (FD $7,600, DK $6,000) is seeing consistent volume as a runner and a receiver, and should touch the ball 20+ times, but that alone isn’t enough against this Tampa Bay defense. He’s a very risky play in a tough matchup.
Pass Catchers: Jordan Matthews (FD $6,300, DK $6,000) thrived last season with Mark Sanchez under center, as he saw 54 targets and hauled in six touchdowns on passes thrown by Sanchez. Compare this to the eight games with Nick Foles, which saw Matthews targeted 49 times with only two scores on a similar amount of total passing attempts. He saw a boost of around five yards per target with Sanchez throwing the ball, and this can only help him snap out of his funk this year. The Bucs are bad against wideouts of all shapes and sizes, but Matthews’ rapport with Sanchez makes him the most appealing option. No other wideout is seeing consistent targets in this offense, and the tight ends appear to be splitting work as well, but Zach Ertz (FD $5,200, DK $3,100) would be the top non-Matthews option for use in tournaments. He saw a boost in targets with Sanchez last season, as well, and while his per-target production didn’t increase, a stable amount of looks in the passing game would be great for the tight end, who has huge PPR upside in the right situation.
The Takeaway: The Eagles will continue to run their normal offense with Sam Bradford on the sideline, and while it might not be pretty, Mark Sanchez can and likely will lead this team to points on Sunday. He’ll target Jordan Matthews early and often, and both are viable in tournaments. DeMarco Murray and Zach Ertz are the contrarian GPP options to target if you want a piece of this offense, but don’t trust Sanchez or the unreliable Matthews.
Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears
| Denver Broncos | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Soldier Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41 | 20 | -1 | 41 | 21 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.8 | 17 | 15 | 28 | Offense | 22.0 | 21 | 28 | 19 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.3 | 17 | 4 | 27 | Opp. Defense | 18.7 | 3 | 1 | 6 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Chicago Bears | 15 | 4 | 16 | 5 | Denver Broncos | 1 | 18 | 1 | 12 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 103 | 68 | 1 | 816 | Jeffery | 57 | 36 | 2 | 515 | |
| Sanders | 85 | 46 | 4 | 639 | Royal | 36 | 26 | 1 | 170 | |
| Latimer | 7 | 3 | 0 | 30 | Wilson | 39 | 20 | 1 | 318 | |
| Daniels | 46 | 24 | 3 | 245 | Bennett | 70 | 48 | 3 | 399 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Peyton Manning (DEN, Out), Emmanuel Sanders (DEN, Questionable), Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal (CHI, Questionable)
DEN Matchup Rating: 2.5
CHI Matchup Rating: 3.0
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: Brock Osweiler (FD $6,000, DK $5,000) will get the start under center for the Broncos this week, replacing the injured Peyton Manning. And while we don’t have a ton to go by in terms of regular season appearances for the towering Denver quarterback, we don’t need to see a lot of ability to trust a player with weapons like the ones available in the Denver offense. The Bears rank 18th in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, which has come through highs and lows rather than consistent performances. Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer and Matthew Stafford all had three or more passing touchdowns, while Nick Foles, Alex Smith and Teddy Bridgewater had 200 or fewer yards passing and one or no touchdowns. Osweiler is a total wild card, but the upside is there against a middling Chicago defense that is prone to giving up big games and big plays. He’s worthy of a spot in a GPP stack with one of his receivers in Week 11.
Running Game: They haven’t allowed a ton of fantasy points to backs this season, but the advanced metrics suggest that the Bears have one of the worst defensive units against the run in the league. They rank 31st in DVOA and 30th in numberFire’s rankings against the ground game, and that’s in spite of their ability to keep the ball out of the end zone via the run. Backs have only scored rushing touchdowns three times against Chicago this season, but do average a healthy 4.6 yards per attempt. Ronnie Hillman (FD $6,200, DK $3,900) is the lead dog at running back ahead of C.J. Anderson (FD $5,700, DK $3,700), but neither have stood out enough to merit a healthy majority of opportunities in this backfield. With an inexperienced QB under center, we may see a few extra carries mixed in for this duo, but will either do anything with those opportunities? Since Week 6, the first week which saw Hillman receive more carries than Anderson, Hillman has carried the ball in the red zone eight times to Anderson’s three, so Hillman gets the nod in my tournament lineups thanks to increased odds for a touchdown.
Pass Catchers: Demaryius Thomas (FD $7,700, DK $7,300) and Emmanuel Sanders (FD $7,600, DK $7,000) are both quite affordable and have big-time potential, even with a new quarterback under center. There’s no way Osweiler can be worse than Peyton Manning was over the past few weeks, as the veteran signal caller was clearly held back by injury, a declining skill set, or both. Thomas sees a ton of targets, including the most red zone targets on the team so far this season, and has big-play potential on deep throws and screens alike. Thomas seems due for a positive regression, while Sanders continues to deal with a nagging injury, and is more of a known quantity. Neither wideout will have a matchup any better than the other, as both Chicago corners grade out as fairly average according to PFF. Either one can be used as you see fit in tournament lineups.
The Takeaway: The Broncos are making a big change at quarterback, but based on the recent play of Peyton Manning, it might give their offense a bit of a spark. We can’t trust anyone completely due to this uncertainty, but Osweiler, Hillman, Thomas and Sanders are all potential tournament plays against Chicago.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: The Broncos did stumble a bit last week on defense, but they’re still the top defense in the NFL by virtually any measure, especially against quarterbacks. Alex Smith wasn’t the reason the Chiefs won, and apart from an 80-yard pass to Charcandrick West, he picked up only 124 yards on 30 attempts. The same will likely be true for Jay Cutler (FD $7,000, DK $5,100), who doesn’t stand much of a chance against the league’s best pass defense. Avoid him this weekend.
Running Game: Jeremy Langford (FD $6,700, DK $5,600) appears to have earned a spot in the limited offensive rotation for the Bears, joining Matt Forte (FD $7,800, DK $6,800) and the top pass catchers as viable options in daily fantasy. If Forte plays this week, it limits the upside for both players, as this will likely turn into a true timeshare until Forte moves along to another team or hangs up his cleats and calls it a career. But if Forte sits out again, it could be a sneaky spot to roster a back against a defense that looked a bit more vulnerable against the run than the pass in recent weeks. Prior to West’s big game in Week 10, Frank Gore had over 100 total yards and a touchdown against the Broncos in Week 9, and Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles had respectable games earlier this year. Langford will likely be more popular than he should in this tough matchup, but you can fire him up in a GPP lineup or two thanks to his fantasy-friendly role in this offense.
Pass Catchers: Wideouts score seven fewer FanDuel points per game against the Broncos when compared to the Bengals, who rank 27th in points allowed to the position. The worst pass defenses in the league allow twice as many fantasy points per game to wide receivers compared to Denver. This is not a unit to test, especially with Aqib Talib returning after his one-game suspension. Avoid all Chicago pass catchers.
The Takeaway: Jeremy Langford is a “not as sneaky as we’d like” GPP option if Matt Forte remains out, but otherwise, this is a tough offense to trust in such a tough matchup.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
| Green Bay Packers | Minnesota Vikings | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Mall of America Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44.5 | 21.75 | -1 | 44.5 | 22.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.3 | 11 | 17 | 14 | Offense | 22.0 | 21 | 29 | 1 | |
| Opp. Defense | 17.1 | 2 | 8 | 15 | Opp. Defense | 20.6 | 11 | 21 | 25 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 8 | 11 | 22 | Green Bay Packers | 22 | 13 | 12 | 24 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cobb | 78 | 45 | 5 | 548 | Wallace | 50 | 28 | 1 | 318 | |
| Adams | 49 | 27 | 0 | 272 | Diggs | 47 | 30 | 2 | 526 | |
| Jones | 39 | 24 | 6 | 483 | Wright | 26 | 13 | 0 | 223 | |
| Rodgers | 48 | 33 | 5 | 267 | Rudolph | 38 | 23 | 3 | 182 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Ty Montgomery (GB, Questionable), Eddie Lacy (GB, Probable), Adrian Peterson (MIN, Questionable)
GB Matchup Rating: 4.5
MIN Matchup Rating: 4.5
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: Even though Aaron Rodgers (FD $8,900, DK $7,500) has great numbers on the season, it’s hard to not feel like he and the Packers have been a bit of a letdown heading into this crucial division game against the Vikings. Rodgers has been efficient in most of his starts, but has a couple of uncharacteristic blips on the radar this season. Minnesota is a well-coached defense that seems to be consistently playing above their advanced metrics this season, as they rank 15th in DVOA against the pass, but have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks on the year. They limit opposing quarterbacks’ upside, allowing only one 300-yard passer this year, and only three games with multiple passing touchdowns. Rodgers is more than capable of breaking the mold and helping balance out what seems like an overachieving defense, but he’s also capable of 200 yards and two touchdowns, which we could get from any number of quarterbacks who come at a steep discount when compared to the elite passer. I would limit my exposure to Rodgers this weekend, but he can never be ruled out, as he’s arguably the most talented quarterback in the NFL.
Running Game: James Starks (FD $6,200, DK $5,300) will lead the way at running back for the Packers this week, but Eddie Lacy (FD $5,600, DK $4,800) will likely be active as well, and this cuts into both players’ values. The Vikings rank 28th in DVOA against the run, but rank 27th in fantasy points allowed to backs. Like the passing game, this indicates that the team is playing above their heads from a metrics standpoint, but unlike the Green Bay passing game, this rushing attack doesn’t seem poised to break the trend and bring regression to the Minnesota defense. Starks is preferred over Lacy, as his best this season has looked better than Lacy’s best, but neither should be heavily used in any format this week.
Pass Catchers: Randall Cobb (FD $7,100, DK $6,700) will see a tough matchup this weekend as Captain Munnerlyn awaits in the slot. Munnerlyn is graded out as one of the best corners in the league according to PFF, and this has led to slot receivers picking up the worst DVOA against Minnesota in the NFL this season. Tight ends and other wideouts have fared well against the Vikings, and if you can trust Davante Adams (FD $6,800, DK $4,600) after his disappointing game against Detroit, he might be the way to go if you’re looking to target this passing game. Richard Rodgers (FD $5,400, DK $3,100) is also worth a speculative spot in a DraftKings lineup, as he’s seeing a pretty consistent workload and is a key red zone target for Aaron Rodgers.
The Takeaway: Davante Adams and Richard Rodgers are the top options for the Packers, who are stumbling on offense and not the cash-game locks they were a year ago. Randall Cobb matchup is tough, and he doesn’t seem 100% so far this season, while the running game is playing too poorly to trust. Aaron Rodgers is never out of contention for a spot in DFS lineups, but there’s no reason to invest heavily this weekend.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: Teddy Bridgewater (FD $6,600, DK $5,000) has an incredibly low floor and a pretty low ceiling as well, so even against a Green Bay defense that’s prone to giving up fantasy points to quarterbacks, I’m not going to target Bridgewater in this contest. He has two passing touchdowns only once this season, and has five games under 200 passing yards.
Running Game: The main reason why Bridgewater has such weak statistics is the focus on the running game for Minnesota. When a team has a future Hall of Famer like Adrian Peterson (FD $8,900, DK $6,800) running the ball, there’s no need to throw on a regular basis. Peterson has 103, 125 and 203 rushing yards in his last three games, and the Packers have allowed three 100-yard rushers on the season, and are not a matchup to fear (17th in DVOA against the run, 26th in numberFire’s rankings). Peterson has touchdowns in six straight regular season games against the Packers, and he’s had some huge games against his division rivals in recent years. Fire up Peterson in any format this weekend.
Pass Catchers: Stefon Diggs (FD $6,700, DK $5,000) enjoyed a mini-breakout a few weeks ago, but the lack of production from the Minnesota passing game, in general, has hamstrung his ascent to fantasy superstardom. The Packers have allowed some big games to receivers this year, but Diggs isn’t quite on the level of Demaryius Thomas, Keenan Allen or Jeremy Maclin yet, and that’s mainly due to his quarterback and not due to any flaw of his own. 80 yards and a touchdown is within the realm of possibility, so don’t ignore Diggs completely, but the generally low expectation for this passing attack limits his upside. No other Minnesota passing game option is worthy of serious consideration, especially considering how inconsistent the tight end play has been recently.
The Takeaway: Adrian Peterson is in line for another big game, and Stefon Diggs is a tournament option, but otherwise, it’s hard to find anything to like on this offense. This should be a relatively low-scoring game, and it should stay close throughout, so look for the Vikings to keep the ball in Peterson’s hands as much as possible.
St. Louis Rams at Baltimore Ravens
| St. Louis Rams | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | M&T Bank Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 41 | 19.25 | -2.5 | 41 | 21.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.8 | 31 | 31 | 13 | Offense | 24.0 | 13 | 19 | 26 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.3 | 24 | 27 | 4 | Opp. Defense | 20.1 | 8 | 3 | 17 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 31 | 12 | 31 | 3 | St. Louis Rams | 2 | 21 | 3 | 9 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Britt | 34 | 16 | 1 | 317 | Aiken | 58 | 32 | 2 | 406 | |
| Austin | 50 | 30 | 6 | 530 | Givens | 18 | 11 | 1 | 168 | |
| Quick | 15 | 4 | 0 | 51 | Brown | 30 | 14 | 0 | 112 | |
| Cook | 41 | 22 | 0 | 290 | Gillmore | 34 | 24 | 4 | 284 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Stedman Bailey (STL, Suspended)
STL Matchup Rating: 3.5
BAL Matchup Rating: 3.5
St. Louis Rams
Quarterback: Case Keenum (FD $4,800, DK $5,000) will get the start under center this weekend for the Rams… and there’s not a whole lot to get excited about. Keenum has a career 55% completion percentage, and has 11 touchdowns to eight interceptions in ten starts. He has a pair of three-touchdown games in his career, but has five TD passes in his other eight games. The price is right for such a speculative play in a great matchup (the Ravens rank 25th in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the second-most points to opposing QBs this season), but we can’t expect a lot out of a career backup who failed to consistently produce even 200 yards and a touchdown per game during his brief stint as a starter.
Running Game: If anything, the decision to move to Keenum at quarterback should only motivate the Rams to keep Todd Gurley (FD $9,200, DK $7,600) involved in the offense as often as possible. After seeing 20+ touches in his previous five games, Gurley had only 12 in a blowout loss to the Bears. It’s smart to save the talented back for more competitive affairs later on in the season, which according to the Vegas odds, this one should be. The Ravens aren’t an easy matchup for backs, but that doesn’t really matter all that much for Gurley. His price is high, but he’s scored a touchdown in each of his last four games, and has huge upside. He’s in play in tournaments until further notice, but there are better values for cash games this weekend.
Pass Catchers: Brian Quick (FD $4,700, DK $3,000) has emerged from the shadows and led the team in targets in their last outing, but with a new quarterback under center, predicting which receivers will see work is a difficult endeavor. The Rams will get touches for Tavon Austin (FD $6,000, DK $4,600), but other than that, I don’t see a reason to use any St. Louis wideout or tight end outside of a very speculative stack with Keenum. Quick, Austin and Wes Welker (FD $5,200, DK $3,000) would be the preferred options if you are going that route, but only in a cheap tournament.
The Takeaway: The Ravens are a favorable matchup for an opposing passing game, but the Rams just don’t seem to have the right personnel to take advantage. Todd Gurley is always in play, but otherwise, trust the folks in Vegas, who expect a low-scoring clunker of a game.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: The Rams have a great matchup and no one to take advantage of it, but on the Baltimore side of the ball, the opposite scenario is unfolding. Joe Flacco (FD $7,600, DK $5,300) is capable of a big game in a good matchup, but the Rams have one of the better defenses in the NFL. They rank fifth in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the second-fewest FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Flacco folded in his matchup with the tough Denver defense in Week 1, and will likely do the same again in Week 11 against the Rams. The upside isn’t worth the risk.
Running Game: The Rams are solid against the run, as well, but have allowed opponents to rack up fantasy points via running backs despite a top-five run defense per numberFire and Football Outsiders. A lot of those fantasy points allowed (14th-most in the league) have come from three players (Langford, Peterson, Jones), who all had well over 100 total yards and at least one touchdown. No other back has cracked 100 rushing yards against St. Louis, and only two other backs have scored touchdowns against the Rams. Justin Forsett (FD $6,900, DK $5,800) could be the next in line to torch an otherwise seemingly solid St. Louis run defense, but that’s not something to bank on in tournaments. Roll him out in GPPs, just in case this recent trend of poor performances against opposing backs is a sign of regression for the Rams’ defense and not just a blip on the radar.
Pass Catchers: The Baltimore passing offense is depleted, and the matchup is tough, so I’m not interested in any of their pass catchers in this one. The only player I’d consider is Crockett Gillmore (FD $5,300, DK $3,300), who remains cheap, and faces a defense that ranks 25th against tight ends in DVOA this season, and 14th in points per game allowed to the position. He’s a fine GPP bargain on DraftKings.
The Takeaway: Crockett Gillmore and Justin Forsett are GPP options this weekend, but otherwise, it’s tough to trust any Baltimore offensive players in this difficult matchup. This could be a very ugly game for both teams, and there are better places to invest daily fantasy salary.