NFL Grind Down: Week 11
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get three months of Grinders Incentives for free ($75 value).
Oakland Raiders at Detroit Lions
| Oakland Raiders | Detroit Lions | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Ford Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 48.5 | 24.75 | 1 | 48.5 | 23.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.2 | 9 | 9 | 20 | Offense | 18.8 | 28 | 23 | 31 | |
| Opp. Defense | 27.4 | 28 | 27 | 24 | Opp. Defense | 26.8 | 26 | 30 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Detroit Lions | 29 | 16 | 22 | 23 | Oakland Raiders | 14 | 26 | 21 | 31 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cooper | 81 | 50 | 4 | 736 | Johnson | 87 | 54 | 3 | 740 | |
| Crabtree | 85 | 51 | 5 | 646 | Tate | 73 | 44 | 1 | 454 | |
| Roberts | 27 | 13 | 2 | 185 | Moore | 38 | 25 | 4 | 286 | |
| Smith | 10 | 9 | 0 | 46 | Ebron | 41 | 27 | 3 | 320 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Calvin Johnson (DET, Probable)
OAK Matchup Rating: 8.0
DET Matchup Rating: 5.0
Oakland Raiders
Quarterback: Derek Carr (FD $7,700, DK $6,300) shook off a Week 1 injury to kick off a fantastic sophomore season with a three-touchdown performance against the Ravens in Week 2. That game set the tone for Carr, who has seven multi-touchdown games this year, and has gone over 300 yards five times. He has played well against defenses far better than that of Detroit, his opponent this week, and he’s going to be a popular play in all formats. The Lions rank 30th against the pass according to numberFire, and 28th according to Football Outsiders, and they’re allowed the third-most points per game to the position this season. As slim road favorites, this game should stay close enough to keep the ball in the air for Carr, which should lead to multiple touchdown throws and at least 200 yards, which will go a long way toward paying off his reasonable price tag.
Running Game: The Lions did a good job keeping James Starks in check last week, but prior to that, they allowed back-to-back 100+ total yard performances from Adrian Peterson and Charcandrick West. This sets up well for Latavius Murray (FD $6,800, DK $5,600), who is quite affordable for a back with his level of volume thanks to a trio of touchdown-less games this month. His volume has fluctuated quite a bit, so he’s definitely risky, but the Lions have faced the fifth-most rushing attempts in the league this year, and have allowed a league-high 14 rushing touchdowns on those attempts. No other team has allowed more than 11. They’re a sub-par rushing defense facing one of the league’s better backs, and that back comes with a bargain bin price tag. Utilize Murray in tournaments, and sneak him into cash games if you’re feeling daring.
Pass Catchers: Amari Cooper (FD $7,200, DK $6,800) and Michael Crabtree (FD $6,500, DK $6,000) remain the two relevant pass catchers for the Oakland offense. The duo have combined for over 160 targets, and no other receiver or tight end has more than 27 on the year. Darius Slay has begun taking on the role of shadow corner for the Lions, per Pro Football Focus, and that means he’s likely to follow Amari Cooper around the field. This is a shadow assignment to be worried about, as PFF grades Slay as a very good corner, among the best in the league, and Cooper will fail to get the best of him on a regular basis. This increases the appeal of Crabtree, who is cheaper, and a reliable source of targets and catches. If Slay’s talent was more well known among players, Cooper would be an interesting tournament play, but his popularity will likely supersede concerns about his matchup, so fading him in favor of his veteran teammate makes sense in GPP lineups this week.
The Takeaway: The Raiders are road favorites against a bad Detroit team that struggles to defend all aspects of offensive football. Target Carr, Murray and Crabtree this weekend, in virtually any format on any site.
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: For as good as their offense has been this season, the Oakland defense has been equally poor. The folks at numberFire have them ranked 31st in the NFL, ahead of only the Saints. Peyton Manning and Teddy Bridgewater are the only quarterbacks to not throw for two or more touchdowns against Oakland this season, while Geno Smith, Josh McCown and Jay Cutler are among the notable names to go over 250 yards with at least two touchdowns in matchups with the Raiders. Can Matthew Stafford (FD $7,000, DK $5,400) join that list? The only person who can stop him is… Matthew Stafford. We’ve seen the big game potential from Stafford already this season in his four-touchdown outing against the Bears a month ago, and he could be in line for another huge game in this cupcake matchup. The Raiders rank 31st in pass defense according to numberFire, and while Football Outsiders grades them out a bit more favorably, they’re still a safe distance from the top half of the NFL’s secondaries. And with pass rusher Aldon Smith on the sideline due to suspension, things aren’t going to get any easier for the Raiders. Stafford is a smart tournament play at home in what should be a competitive, high-scoring affair.
Running Game: Over the past two weeks, the Raiders have allowed well over 400 total yards to running backs. It’s a shame that streak of success is going to come to an end so quickly, as the Lions simply don’t have a gameplan or the personnel to take advantage of this weakness. Even in a win against the Packers, Joique Bell (FD $5,400, DK $3,300) was terrible, and Ameer Abdullah (FD $5,300, DK $3,400) barely got to touch the ball (because he has trouble holding onto it when he does). Theo Riddick (FD $5,100, DK $3,300) is good for a couple of catches per game, but there’s nothing to like about this running game for daily fantasy purposes. Bell is going to be the one getting the majority of the touches, so if you think this Oakland defense is that bad, he’s the guy to roster. I wouldn’t advise it, though.
Pass Catchers: Calvin Johnson (FD $8,100, DK $7,200) is the pass catcher of choice for Detroit, as he’s seeing targets down the field and regularly making plays, as he’s done for his entire career. Antonio Brown, Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall all had big games with nine or more receptions for 100 or more yards against this defense, and Johnson has a similarly high volume and high level of skill. He’s due for 100+ yards, and if he scores, he’ll be a relatively unpopular way to get 20 or more points in your tournament lineups. Let’s not forget how bad the Raiders are at defending tight ends, as last week’s Rhett Ellison touchdown and Kyle Rudolph brutally dropped touchdown reminded us. Eric Ebron (FD $5,400, DK $3,500) is incredibly inconsistent, but on DraftKings, his price is very attractive in this favorable matchup. Golden Tate (FD $6,200, DK $4,600) and Lance Moore (FD $5,100, DK $3,000) have sporadic roles and volume, and can’t really be trusted, even against this poor of a defense.
The Takeaway: Stafford and Megatron are, again, a very solid tournament stack, and Eric Ebron is a low-floor, high-upside tight end play on sites where he provides a significant discount when compared to the top non-Gronk options.
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons
| Indianapolis Colts | Atlanta Falcons | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Georgia Dome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 47.5 | 20.75 | -6 | 47.5 | 26.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.2 | 19 | 14 | 21 | Offense | 25.4 | 8 | 4 | 12 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.1 | 12 | 15 | 3 | Opp. Defense | 25.2 | 22 | 26 | 21 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 29 | 2 | 28 | Indianapolis Colts | 26 | 19 | 20 | 25 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hilton | 87 | 43 | 3 | 703 | Jones | 119 | 80 | 6 | 1,029 | |
| Johnson | 48 | 24 | 3 | 288 | White | 30 | 17 | 1 | 230 | |
| Moncrief | 66 | 39 | 5 | 429 | Hankerson | 39 | 22 | 2 | 291 | |
| Fleener | 50 | 33 | 2 | 280 | Tamme | 53 | 38 | 1 | 430 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Andrew Luck (IND, Out), Leonard Hankerson (ATL, Questionable)
IND Matchup Rating: 4.0
ATL Matchup Rating: 8.0
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: Now that Andrew Luck is getting some much needed time off to mend his various injuries, Matt Hasselbeck (FD $6,300, DK $5,500) will take over under center for the Colts. The veteran quarterback has already thrown a few passes this season, and didn’t look horrible in the process. His competition (Jacksonville and Houston) wasn’t spectacular, but he completed over 60% of his passes in both games, and threw three touchdowns with no interceptions. This week’s opponent, Atlanta, is ranked somewhere between the Jags and Texans in most pass defense metrics, which bodes well for Hasselbeck. The Falcons are 23rd in DVOA against the pass and 20th in numberFire’s pass defense rankings, yet have been tough to score fantasy points against for quarterbacks, ranking 28th in points allowed per game. A lot of that can be attributed to strength of schedule, as the Falcons have faced Blaine Gabbert, Jameis Winston, Zach Mettenberger, Brandon Weeden and the Texans’ quarterbacks already this season. Drew Brees and Eli Manning are the only “good” quarterbacks to play against Atlanta so far this year, and those two combined for over 600 yards passing, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. The Colts have proven that they’re not afraid to throw the ball, not even with a backup QB under center, so Hasselbeck is a fine tournament play that may fly under the radar.
Running Game: Frank Gore (FD $6,600, DK $4,700) has an extremely unpredictable weekly volume, as his past four games have included 15, 14, 25 and 29 touches. He’s a veteran that Indy would prefer to not wear down in the regular season, but saving his legs will all be for naught if they don’t make the playoffs. The Falcons are an average run defense (16th in DVOA), but have allowed the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to the position this season. A lot of that still traces back to Joseph Randle and his three touchdown performance in Week 3, but it’s also due to Atlanta allowing the most receptions to opposing backs in the league this year. Gore gets his fair share of targets in the passing game, and could see a couple of extra in this favorable matchup. Gore is a secondary tournament option this weekend, as he has mutli-touchdown upside, but the Falcons haven’t been handing out huge games to backs every week.
Pass Catchers: According to Pro Football Focus, among defensive backs who have covered 120 or more routes this season who are expected to start this weekend, none have allowed fewer fantasy points per route run than Desmond Trufant. And according to PFF’s charting, Trufant and T.Y. Hilton (FD $7,200, DK $6,200) will find themselves lined up against one another for nearly half of this game. On the other side of the field, Donte Moncrief (FD $6,100, DK $4,700) will see coverage from Robert Alford and Jalen Collins, who are both average players according to PFF’s grading system. However, that doesn’t often lead to big games for the receiver not facing Trufant, as overall on the season, Atlanta ranks 30th in fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers. The biggest games against them have come from big names (Hopkins, Beckham) or slot receivers (Shorts, Matthews, Crowder). So despite the tougher one-on-one matchup, the trends seem to set up better for Hilton, who spends time in the slot and is the true star wideout for the Colts. Hasselbeck strongly preferred Hilton as a target in his previous starts, throwing him 22 passes, while Moncrief only received 12 targets. Hilton is the Indy wideout to own, but none of them stand out as great selections. As for tight ends, Coby Fleener (FD $5,000, DK $3,200) saw the second-most targets from Hasselbeck earlier this season, and he’s also been the most heavily targeted tight end for the Colts over the past month. The Falcons have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends this year, so Fleener is a fine bargain option for tournaments on most sites.
The Takeaway: Despite the change at quarterback, we can continue to target the same players on this Indy offense. Hasselbeck replaces Luck, and the top receivers (Hilton, Moncrief, Fleener) and the running back (Gore) are all viable plays, but mostly in tournament settings.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: The Colts’ pass defense is similar to the Falcons, in that it’s ranked outside of the top-20 in the advanced metrics, but hasn’t allowed a ton of fantasy points to opposing passers yet this season. Drew Brees, Blake Bortles, Tyrod Taylor and Cam Newton were all kept to reasonable fantasy totals by this defensive unit, and the same will likely be true for Matt Ryan (FD $7,800, DK $7,100). Ryan has been extremely inconsistent this season, and without the high points we expect from a seemingly talented passer with one of the best wideouts in the game. He has as many games with fewer than 12 fantasy points as he does games over 20 fantasy points on FanDuel, and his top performance, 23 points, isn’t exactly a GPP winner. With so many great options at QB every weekend, there’s no reason to continue to wait for Ryan to have a big game. Atlanta has figured out a running game, and their quarterback and receiver play has been too inconsistent to justify Ryan’s price.
Running Game: Devonta Freeman (FD $9,100, DK $8,400) is still priced through the roof thanks to his quartet of great performances a few weeks ago. Since his most recent multi-touchdown outing against the Saints, however, he’s scored 14, 16 and 18 FanDuel points, which hardly impress for his lofty salary. He’s going to continue to get plenty of touches in this offense, but it appears he may have been playing out of his mind for a couple of games, and has returned back to Earth. The Colts are a middle of the road run defense (14th in DVOA, 12th in numberFire), and while they’re allowed the 12th-most points to the position this year, that is mostly just due to touchdowns allowed. That leaves the door open for Freeman to punch in a few scores (no running back has more rushing attempts inside the opponent’s 20 or inside the opponent’s 10 this season), but it’s more likely that he only scores once with 100 total yards and barely gets back the value required of his big price tag.
Pass Catchers: The Falcons get pretty predictable when they’re close to the end zone, as not only do they have a running back who leads the league in rushes inside the ten, but they also have a receiver who leads the league in targets inside the ten. Julio Jones (FD $9,100, DK $9,300) has 11 such looks this season, two more than any other pass catcher this season. He and Kyle Rudolph are the only players to see more than half of their team’s targets inside the opponent’s 10. Jones is always a threat for a huge game thanks to his incredibly high volume. He has 47 targets in his last three starts, and has turned 31 of those into catches. He had a letdown game in a blowout win against the Texans, and didn’t quite live up to expectations against Washington or New Orleans in the two games after that, but he’s hit 100 yards or scored a touchdown in every other game, and has at least nine receptions in every other game as well. The Falcons are heavy favorites here, but I don’t think a blowout is in play. The Colts are just good enough to keep this one close and keep Atlanta motivated to feed their star wideout. In the past, we’d likely steer clear of Jones due to a matchup with Vontae Davis, but so far this season, he’s not been a true shutdown player, and he’s not even shadowing full time as he deals with various injuries. The Falcons can get Jones open, and he’s a viable play in any format this weekend. No other wideout on the Atlanta roster has more than six targets in a game since Week 4, and none of them hold any appeal in this game. If you want to take a flier on one, Leonard Hankerson (FD $5,000, DK $3,300) would be the guy, as the Colts have been vulnerable to slot receivers at times this year, and Hankerson will be way under the radar coming off of an injury absence. Jacob Tamme (FD $5,300, DK $3,600) has back-to-back double-digit target games, and faces a pass defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA against opposing tight ends. He’s a worthwhile target in tournaments, and a secondary cash option on DK, where his reduced price and PPR potential make him more appealing.
The Takeaway: Julio Jones is a top play this weekend, while Devonta Freeman and Matt Ryan lack the same sort of appeal due to inconsistent results and mediocre matchups. Leonard Hankerson and Jacob Tamme are both in play for the right price in the right format (PPR sites).
New York Jets at Houston Texans
| New York Jets | Houston Texans | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Reliant Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 41.5 | 22 | 2.5 | 41.5 | 19.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.1 | 12 | 18 | 10 | Offense | 20.4 | 26 | 8 | 27 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.4 | 18 | 7 | 26 | Opp. Defense | 20.4 | 9 | 9 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Houston Texans | 18 | 24 | 5 | 13 | New York Jets | 10 | 6 | 14 | 10 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Marshall | 96 | 57 | 6 | 753 | Hopkins | 123 | 71 | 7 | 927 | |
| Decker | 65 | 42 | 7 | 557 | Washington | 55 | 28 | 3 | 443 | |
| Kerley | 26 | 16 | 2 | 152 | Shorts | 52 | 29 | 1 | 315 | |
| Cumberland | 13 | 5 | 0 | 77 | Fiedorowicz | 14 | 11 | 1 | 119 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ, Probable), Brian Hoyer, Chris Polk, DeAndre Hopkins (HOU, Questionable)
NYJ Matchup Rating: 6.0
HOU Matchup Rating: 3.0
New York Jets
Quarterback: While we all know the Texans are a bad football team, it hasn’t been their pass defense that’s held them down. Football Outsiders ranks the Houston defense 14th in DVOA, while numberFire ranks them ninth, and they’ve allowed a middle-of-the-road 18 FanDuel points per game to the position. There is big game upside, as we’ve seen from Alex Smith and Ryan Tannehill, but there’s also a chance of a limited game in a blowout, or just a bad game, as we saw from Andy Dalton last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick (FD $7,400, DK $5,000) has two touchdown passes in all but one of his starts that lasted four quarters, and has the potential to take off and run and add a few points to his total on the ground. Dalton, Bortles and Newton all had a healthy amount of rushing production against the Texans, so if Fitzpatrick can scramble for 30+ yards and throw for two scores, he’ll be a nice return on investment in what should be a less-than-entertaining affair in Houston.
Running Game: Chris Ivory (FD $7,200, DK $6,100) has 18 or more touches in every game since Week 3, when he didn’t play due to injury. He’s been getting involved in the passing game, something he never did prior to his move to New York, which adds a bit more upside to a player who can break off big runs and is always a threat for multiple goal-line touchdown runs. The Texans are a subpar run defense, coming in 19th or worse in DVOA, numberFire’s rankings, and fewest fantasy points allowed. The Bengals had a letdown game against this defense a week ago, and the touchdowns have been hard to come by against Houston, but Ivory is the right guy to reverse that trend, and he’s viable in tournaments.
Pass Catchers: According to Football Outsiders, top wide receivers and secondary wide receivers have the most success against the Houston defense, as the Texans are ranked 25th and 29th respectively against the positions. None of their corners are graded particularly poorly by Pro Football Focus, but none are worthy of fear from fantasy owners, either. Brandon Marshall (FD $7,900, DK $7,000) and Eric Decker (FD $7,000, DK $5,800) are the obvious top options for this passing offense, and are both worthy of tournament consideration, but thanks to a mediocre matchup and a very low total, neither is viable in cash games. No other pass catcher on this offense is worthwhile for daily fantasy.
The Takeaway: The Texans aren’t as easy of a matchup as their blowout losses would suggest, but all of the New York skill position players are viable in tournament contests.
Houston Texans
Quarterback: With Brian Hoyer (FD $6,700, DK $5,200) having suffered memory loss (!!!) in his last outing, T.J. Yates (FD $5,100, DK $5,000) is waiting in the wings to get a start under center for the Texans. Normally when a player recovers from a concussion, we can play him in daily fantasy sports as we always would, but in Hoyer’s case, there may be reason for concern even if he is “cleared” to play. Yates has never been good, and Case Keenum would be much preferred if you’re looking for a bargain quarterback on FanDuel. I would avoid this situation entirely, as we’re either dealing with a victim of serious head trauma or a bad career backup quarterback. Oh, and the Jets have a really good defense, as well.
Running Game: The Jets rank first against the run according to Football Outsiders and rank 28th in fantasy points given up to the position this season. The Texans have three backs they rotate in and out of the game, and none of them have performed well this season outside of Alfred Blue (FD $5,700, DK $3,800) posting big numbers on a ton of carries against a bad Tampa defense. There are better places to dig for hidden values this weekend than a matchup with the Jets.
Pass Catchers: If Hoyer plays, I would feel slightly more comfortable rostering DeAndre Hopkins (FD $8,900, DK $8,800), even with a matchup against Darrelle Revis on the horizon. Obviously Julio Jones and the other top dollar wideouts are better options, but if you’re looking to be contrarian, Hopkins certainly fits the bill. But no matter who starts under center, Nate Washington (FD $5,600, DK $4,400) and Cecil Shorts (FD $5,400, DK $3,000) are the preferred options facing the weaker corners for the Jets. The duo will split targets, and it would be preferred if one or the other were to sit out, but with both healthy, it’s a risk to go all-in on either one. The Jets have been beaten by slot receivers on occasion this season, so Shorts would win out over Washington if I were to only pick one of these players.
The Takeaway: The Jets are a solid defense, and they have the right personnel in Darrelle Revis to help take away the only talent remaining on the Houston offense. Use Houston players in only the most speculative of GPP lineups.