NFL Grind Down: Week 13 - Page Four
| Los Angeles Rams | Arizona Cardinals | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7 | 45.5 | 26.25 | 7 | 45.5 | 19.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 29.9 | 2 | 6 | 9 | Offense | 18.5 | 24 | 7 | 32 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.3 | 26 | 19 | 10 | Opp. Defense | 18.7 | 7 | 9 | 27 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 30 | 9 | 24 | 15 | Los Angeles Rams | 4 | 31 | 6 | 6 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Watkins | 47 | 28 | 5 | 490 | Fitzgerald | 106 | 72 | 4 | 780 | |
| Kupp | 72 | 46 | 3 | 597 | Brown | 52 | 25 | 3 | 401 | |
| Reynolds | 9 | 5 | 1 | 65 | Nelson | 45 | 23 | 2 | 372 | |
| Higbee | 41 | 21 | 1 | 262 | Gresham | 37 | 25 | 2 | 250 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Robert Woods (LAR WR) – Out (Shoulder) / John Brown (ARI WR) – Out (Toe) / Adrian Peterson (ARI RB) – Questionable (Neck)
LAR Matchup Rating: 5.5
ARI Matchup Rating: 4.0
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback: Jared Goff predictably lit up a Saints secondary that was missing both starting cornerbacks last week, and he continued his trend of excelling in positive matchups. I was surprised at how low owned he was last week. This week presents a little more of a challenge against a decent Arizona secondary on the road, but Goff is certainly capable of putting up solid numbers. Arizona is allowing 232 passing yards per game, which puts them in the middle of the pack in the league. That’s about where Goff falls on my list. He’s not an elite option, but he’s not the worst option on the board.
Running Backs: The touchdowns have dried up a bit for Todd Gurley of late, but he continues to make solid yardage games look somewhat effortless. He totaled over 100 scrimmage yards for the fifth time in six games last week, and his involvement in the passing game has been a nice bonus in 2017. His role is unquestioned as the lead back in Los Angeles, which is another situation that we simply don’t see that often in today’s NFL. This is not an easy matchup, as Arizona ranks fourth in the league in DVOA against the run, but Gurley is a safe, volume-based RB option. I like him a good bit in cash games, but I don’t think you have to spend up for him in tournaments.
Pass Catchers: Conventional wisdom leads us to believe that Sammy Watkins will get the Patrick Peterson treatment this week. Even though Watkins is coming off a big game, he’s a fade for me in Week 13. With Robert Woods also likely sidelined again, we should see tons of targets funnel to slot man Cooper Kupp, who had a field day in Woods’ absence against the Saints last week with eight grabs for 116 yards. Kupp is easily my favorite pass catcher from the Rams this week, and I will be avoiding everyone else. I’m not buying into a one week sample size for Josh Reynolds.
The Takeaway: It feels like I should be higher on the Rams in this spot, but this is a potential let down game. They are coming off a big win and have to travel to take on an Arizona team that doesn’t have a bad defense. I don’t think the Rams get to their 26 point implied team total here.
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: Blaine Gabbert for MVP! The Arizona signal-caller has looked surprisingly good in his two starts for the Cardinals, as he has tossed a total of five touchdown passes in those contests. The matchup is a heck of a challenge this week against a good Rams pass defense, but Gabbert held his own against an elite Jacksonville pass defense a week ago. His price tag remains dirt cheap on every DFS site, and that puts Gabbert firmly on the map if you are looking for a value signal-caller. He’s there with the likes of Tyrod Taylor and Trevor Siemian in the value conversation at the position. I can’t believe I just wrote that, and it feels like this is a massive trap. It’s certainly not a lock with the difficult matchup.
Running Backs: The Adrian Peterson train has slid to an abrupt halt. He has failed to clear 100 yards from scrimmage in three straight games, and he missed some practice time this week with a neck injury. Even though the Rams are a more favorable matchup for rushing production than passing production, it’s nearly impossible to trust an aging, banged up running back whose production has fallen off the map of late. There are better mid-range options out there in Week 13.
Pass Catchers: Is Ricky Seals-Jones for real? After barely playing in the first half of the season, he has exploded onto the scene with 126 receiving yards and three touchdowns in the two games that Gabbert has started. This feels like a classic case of point chasing, but I wouldn’t actively try to talk you off him. Larry Fitzgerald saw tough coverage last week against Jacksonville, but he should see a few more looks this week. He’s still the WR you want to target here, especially in full PPR formats. I’m not ready to trust the other inconsistent options on this squad.
The Takeaway: The Rams carry a solid defense, so this isn’t the best of spots for the Arizona offense. Blaine Gabbert has been solid in his two starts and remains on the value quarterback radar, as his price hasn’t moved much. The top receiving options are Larry Fitzgerald and the suddenly surging Ricky Seals-Jones, with Fitzgerald being the safe option. I can’t trust a banged up Adrian Peterson at this point.
| New York Giants | Oakland Raiders | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 42.5 | 17.75 | -7 | 42.5 | 24.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 15.6 | 31 | 26 | 26 | Offense | 20.5 | 21 | 15 | 27 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.7 | 18 | 22 | 12 | Opp. Defense | 24.3 | 22 | 29 | 31 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Oakland Raiders | 26 | 24 | 18 | 26 | New York Giants | 29 | 18 | 22 | 32 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Shepard | 51 | 38 | 1 | 475 | Roberts | 39 | 24 | 1 | 262 | |
| Lewis | 37 | 20 | 2 | 247 | Patterson | 27 | 21 | 0 | 186 | |
| King | 25 | 12 | 1 | 147 | Holton | 6 | 4 | 2 | 161 | |
| Engram | 85 | 44 | 5 | 470 | Cook | 65 | 42 | 1 | 536 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Amari Cooper (OAK WR) – Out (Concussion) / Michael Crabtree (OAK WR) – Out (Suspended)
NYG Matchup Rating: 4.0
OAK Matchup Rating: 7.5
New York Giants
Quarterback: The Giants are a mess. They are benching Eli Manning for some random reason. Management has come out and said they would be “open” to firing Ben McAdoo during the season now. I have no idea what they are doing. Geno Smith, of all people, is getting the start at quarterback this week. Even against a woeful Raiders defense, Smith is not in any shape or form a viable fantasy option.
Running Backs: Wayne Gallman has wormed his way back into the running back rotation in New York, as he carried the ball nine times for 37 yards on Thanksgiving. Orleans Darkwa was ineffective with his 11 carries, and Shane Vereen played on his usual complement of passing down snaps. There’s not much to see here.
Pass Catchers: Sterling Shepard is likely going to play this week. Evan Engram has been a solid tight end since Odell Beckham got hurt. None of this matters with Smith at quarterback. Who knows what the Giants are going to do as far as snaps for this group. For all I know, this could end up being like a preseason game, and we could see tons of guys get looks.
The Takeaway: It’s a testament to how much of a dumpster fire this team is that the Giants have an implied team total of just 16 points despite facing off against a terrible defense. The Raiders might actually be in play as a defensive selection this week, as crazy as that sounds. I have no confidence in the Giants’ ability to move the football in this game.
Oakland Raiders
Quarterback: Welcome to chalk Oakland Raiders week! The Giants have given up on the 2017 season, and they will be missing top corner Janoris Jenkins now. There is little resistance to be had in their secondary, and Derek Carr is trending in the right direction. He had an encouraging performance last week against a decent Broncos defense, and he should be able to keep that positive momentum rolling in this favorable matchup. The good news is that Carr is still favorably priced on every site, so you can get him at a relative discount to where he would normally be priced in a home date with the Giants. The Giants are allowing 258 passing yards per game and have surrendered 22 passing touchdowns this season, and those numbers aren’t going to get any better without Jenkins. Fire up Carr with confidence in all formats.
Running Backs: Marshawn Lynch got his healthiest workload of the season last week against the Broncos, taking a massive 26 carries in the game. He salvaged a good day by finding the end zone but was largely ineffective otherwise, rushing for just 2.6 yards per carry. He did add a few receptions, which is a nice bonus. His 69% snap rate was higher than we almost always see from Lynch. I wouldn’t expect Oakland to ride him as hard this week. Even though the matchup is a good one, I will pass. My attention is locked in on the passing game here.
Pass Catchers: Amari Cooper isn’t going to be able to return from injury this week. Michael Crabtree had his suspension reduced to one game, and he will serve that here. That leaves a LOT of targets to go around for other players. Jared Cook stands to benefit nicely, especially since he draws a matchup against a team that has been abysmal at containing tight ends this year. Seth Roberts will fall into the de facto #1 receiver role, and he is a solid value in all formats. Cordarrelle Patterson and Johnny Holton will also see a big uptick in snaps, but they are risk/reward GPP plays only. Cook and Roberts are the strong plays, and I think you can comfortably play both of them on the same roster.
The Takeaway: Oakland has a very healthy 26 point implied team total in this game, and none of their skill players are overly expensive. That’s a great combination. I love the passing game against a Giants team that will be without top cover corner Janoris Jenkins. With Cooper and Crabtree out, Seth Roberts and Jared Cook become great plays in the low to mid-range. You can pair either of them with Derek Carr in tournaments, as well. I am not going to trust Marshawn Lynch after one good game, especially since the Raiders might scale back his reps a bit after he saw nearly 30 touches in Week 12. Stick with the passing game pieces here.
| Philadelphia Eagles | Seattle Seahawks | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.5 | 47 | 26.25 | 5.5 | 47 | 20.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 31.9 | 1 | 14 | 2 | Offense | 24.2 | 10 | 4 | 20 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.3 | 9 | 10 | 9 | Opp. Defense | 17.4 | 3 | 17 | 1 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 6 | 5 | 14 | 20 | Philadelphia Eagles | 11 | 2 | 11 | 14 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jeffery | 89 | 43 | 7 | 619 | Baldwin | 88 | 58 | 4 | 698 | |
| Agholor | 53 | 33 | 6 | 458 | Richardson | 56 | 35 | 5 | 584 | |
| Smith | 39 | 22 | 2 | 279 | Lockett | 55 | 33 | 0 | 408 | |
| Ertz | 81 | 55 | 7 | 639 | Graham | 79 | 49 | 8 | 447 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jimmy Graham (SEA TE) – Questionable (Ankle)
PHI Matchup Rating: 6.0
SEA Matchup Rating: 5.0
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: This will be a fun Sunday night game, and it’s a surprise to see the Seahawks sitting as such big underdogs at home. It’s a testament to the injuries the Seahawks have suffered on defense, but it’s also a nod to the fact that this Eagles team is simply pretty darn good. Carson Wentz continues to chug along and put up big numbers almost effortlessly, and this is not as bad of a matchup as it would have been a month ago. The Seattle secondary has been ravaged by injuries, though they have maintained relatively good pass defense numbers even without Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor. This is still a tough place to play, and Wentz now comes with a premium price tag. I will likely pass on using Wentz this week, but he’s obviously a solid target on the two game prime time slates.
Running Backs: As long as things keep rolling for the Eagles, they are going to continue to use a three-back rotation featuring LeGarrette Blount, Jay Ajayi, and Corey Clement. When they traded for Ajayi, it was naturally assumed that he would become the workhorse back, but that simply hasn’t been the case. Blount had 15 carries for 97 yards against the Bears last week, while Clement and Ajayi combined for jut nine carries. Ajayi has not touched the ball more than eight times in any of his games as a member of the Eagles. This remains a spot that is best left alone, especially since Seattle doesn’t necessarily have a bad rush defense.
Pass Catchers: The losses of Sherman and Chancellor are a boon to the fantasy value of guys like Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz. Jeffery is dealing with a foot injury and might get a questionable tag again this week, but he is rolling with touchdowns in four straight games. Ertz blasted his way back to life with a dominant 100+ yard performance last week, as well. Both of them are decent options on the full week slates and strong options on the prime time slates. If you are looking to differentiate your roster on the shorter slates, give a fringe player like Nelson Agholor a look. His floor is very low, but the snap count has been on the rise over the last few games.
The Takeaway: In a testament to how good this team is, the Eagles have a healthy team total of 26 points despite being on the road against a notoriously good defense. Injuries have made this a better matchup for the Eagles, of course, but it’s still hard to envision Seattle as six point home underdogs to anyone. Ertz and Jeffery are my favorite plays on the Eagles, and there’s nothing wrong with Wentz outside of his elevated price point. I’m not messing with this backfield right now.
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback: As I stated last week, Russell Wilson is the Seattle offense. It took him a while to get going last week against the 49ers, but he still finished the day with a pair of touchdowns and added 25 rushing yards. That might not seem like a lot, but that is a couple of fantasy points that a lot of quarterbacks simply don’t get. The Eagles are a very good team, but Wilson’s volume makes him a strong option in all formats. He’s probably better utilized in GPPs this week, as the Seahawks may have some difficulty moving the football at times.
Running Backs: I gave Dean Shavelson and John Lee some grief on GrindersLive last week for recommending J.D. McKissic as a potential value play in tournaments, but I certainly did not think the Seahawks were going to give 17 carries to Eddie Lacy. Predictably, Lacy managed to turn those carries into just 46 yards. I have no idea why he is still getting carries, but here we are. As usual, this group is out of play for me. It hasn’t burned me in almost three months, so why stop now?
Pass Catchers: Doug Baldwin and Paul Richardson have the safest snap counts in this group, and Richardson led the team with 70 receiving yards last week against the 49ers. Baldwin has struggled a bit of late, but the targets and upside are still there on a weekly basis. You don’t have to pair Wilson with any of the pass catchers in any format, as Wilson spreads the ball around well and might score a rushing touchdown on any given week. The Seattle pass catchers probably don’t fit an ideal cash game build on the full week slates, but they are strong options on the prime time offerings. Jimmy Graham is banged up, but he is also one of the top tight ends on the prime time slate. It’s either him or Ertz at the position, as you likely won’t find a tight end you like in the Monday game.
The Takeaway: As usual, the passing game is where you want to look here. Russell Wilson is a strong GPP option since he is the entirety of this offense, and you don’t have to pair him with a pass catcher. Paul Richardson and Doug Baldwin are your safest options if you want to look at a receiver, and Jimmy Graham (if healthy) is a decent tight end option on the prime time slates where there aren’t a ton of options. It will be interesting to see how this game plays out with Seattle being large home underdogs for the first time in a long time.
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Cincinnati Bengals | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.5 | 43 | 24.25 | 5.5 | 43 | 18.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.5 | 12 | 9 | 19 | Offense | 18.1 | 25 | 27 | 31 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.5 | 10 | 6 | 28 | Opp. Defense | 17.5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 12 | 19 | 3 | 23 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 8 | 5 | 3 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Brown | 126 | 80 | 8 | 1,195 | Green | 91 | 53 | 6 | 809 | |
| Smith-Schuster | 51 | 33 | 5 | 568 | LaFell | 60 | 37 | 2 | 373 | |
| Bryant | 51 | 27 | 2 | 346 | Malone | 10 | 4 | 1 | 54 | |
| James | 42 | 28 | 3 | 246 | Kroft | 42 | 31 | 5 | 317 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Will be updated on Sunday when we have final injury reports
PIT Matchup Rating: 7.0
CIN Matchup Rating: 3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown are rediscovering the magic. The passing game has been electric over the last two games, as Le’Veon Bell has taken a back seat. Big Ben has thrown four touchdown passes in each of the last two games, but the price has yet to come up a whole lot. I like him better on the prime time slates than the full week slates, as this isn’t the greatest of matchups on the road against a solid defense. I wouldn’t expect the same type of production this week, so don’t set expectations too high. Roethlisberger completed just 14 passes in the first game between these teams, as the Steelers took more of a run-heavy approach. I would bank on some type of performance between that one and the most recent two games, making Roethlisberger a secondary mid-range QB option.
Running Backs: At some point, Le’Veon Bell is going to get it rolling again. Recency bias is definitely a thing in DFS, as we saw when Bell was dwarfing Brown in ownership a month ago when Brown was struggling. With Bell disappearing a bit of late, his ownership will likely dip this week. Bell did log 192 total scrimmage yards in the first meeting between these teams, and I think the Steelers make a concerted effort to get him going in Week 13. Even at his elevated price point, I think Bell is a strong contrarian play on the full week slates. He will be more popular in the prime time offerings, but you could get some leverage by playing him and possible fading or going underweight on the passing game.
Pass Catchers: JuJu Smith-Schuster is practicing in full this week, and he is going to return. His return eliminates the value of Martavis Bryant, even though Bryant woke up with a touchdown catch in JuJu’s absence a week ago. Of course, I am burying the top story here. Antonio Brown has logged lines of 10/169/2 and 10/144/3 on 25 total targets over the last two games. That is #good. As we know, though, these things ebb and flow. After Brown is the man for two or three weeks, Le’Veon Bell will become the man again. I think the Bengals will sell out to contain Brown, opening up more opportunities for Bell and Smith-Schuster. Brown is definitely a fine option, but I’m just pumping the breaks a little bit on expecting 150 yards and two scores every week.
The Takeaway: The usual suspects are certainly in play here, but this isn’t a slam dunk matchup. Big Ben, Bell, and Brown are all viable, but the passing game has been overachieving a bit over the last two weeks. Life will be a little more difficult this week. It feels like a game where the Steelers will look to get Le’Veon Bell going after a couple of quiet games, so he is my preferred option of the bunch. JuJu Smith-Schuster is also in play, as he is practicing in full after missing last week due to injury.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: If you are playing the Sunday/Monday prime time slate, Andy Dalton is the worst quarterback of the bunch. If you are playing the Monday/Thursday prime time slate, Andy Dalton is the worst quarterback of the bunch. In other words, avoid Andy Dalton in all formats.
Running Backs: Joe Mixon finally broke out with his best game as an NFL player last week against the Browns, piling up 23 carries for 114 yards and a touchdown while adding 51 receiving yards in an impressive performance. This is a difficult matchup against a solid Steelers defense, and I worry about the potential game flow concerns. If you need a mid-range running back on the prime time slates, Mixon is definitely an option. I will be avoiding him on the full week slates. The performance last week did open some eyes, though, and he will really pick up some steam if he can manage a good game here. Keep an eye on him.
Pass Catchers: Over the last couple of seasons, A.J. Green has been quiet against the Steelers. He had just two catches for 38 yards in the one meeting where he played last year, and he had just three catches for 41 yards in the first meeting this year. If you are paying up for a wide receiver in this game, it makes much more sense to opt for a red hot Antonio Brown on the other side of this game. However, Green will not carry anywhere near the ownership of Brown, and we know Green is capable of going off in any matchup. This makes Green a very live tournament option, especially on the shorter slates. Most DFS players will prioritize Brown, and Green’s ownership will be very low in all formats. I’m not interested in Tyler Kroft or any of the other wide receivers in Week 13.
The Takeaway: There’s not a lot to love with the Bengals facing a very good Steelers defense. However, that defense didn’t look very good last week against Brett Hundley, so maybe there is some hope. You can’t play Andy Dalton, but Joe Mixon and A.J. Green are interesting plays. The matchup isn’t the greatest, but a good chunk of the offense will run through those two players.
