NFL Grind Down: Week 16 - Page Four
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks
| St. Louis Rams | Seattle Seahawks | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:25 p.m. | CenturyLink Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.5 | 40.5 | 13.5 | -13.5 | 40.5 | 27 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.2 | 31 | 32 | 7 | Offense | 26.4 | 7 | 20 | 2 | |
| Opp. Defense | 17.7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | Opp. Defense | 21.0 | 12 | 19 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 1 | 3 | 25 | St. Louis Rams | 8 | 24 | 7 | 12 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Britt | 63 | 30 | 2 | 551 | Baldwin | 86 | 65 | 13 | 905 | |
| Austin | 72 | 44 | 9 | 817 | Kearse | 60 | 43 | 3 | 613 | |
| Quick | 26 | 7 | 0 | 73 | Lockett | 58 | 46 | 0 | 608 | |
| Cook | 69 | 38 | 0 | 476 | Willson | 25 | 17 | 1 | 213 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Doug Baldwin (SEA, Questionable)
STL Matchup Rating: 1.0
SEA Matchup Rating: 6.5
St. Louis Rams
Quarterback: The Rams surprised a lot of people last week by posting 31 points against the Bucs, but those points came on only 319 total yards. This is still a limited offense with a subpar quarterback, Case Keenum (FD $6,000, DK $5,100), who will now face one of the league’s toughest defenses. The Seahawks have seven interceptions and only two touchdowns allowed to opposing quarterbacks over the past four games, and Keenum is unlikely to break the trend in this contest.
Running Game: No team has allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing backs this season than the Seahawks, but Seattle avoided Todd Gurley (FD $8,300, DK $6,200) in the first matchup between these teams. The Rams are huge underdogs and the Seahawks have an elite run defense, so it would be crazy to expect much from Gurley, but Jonathan Stewart was able to score twice against the Seahawks, albeit in a more favorable game flow situation, so the potential is there. Still, I’d rather focus on the cheaper options at RB this weekend that offer higher floors and upsides.
Pass Catchers: Tavon Austin (FD $6,300, DK $4,200) is the only pass catcher worth considering, as the Rams work to get him the ball in space as often as possible. Even still, he’s very risky and has an incredibly low floor in this tough matchup.
The Takeaway: The Rams are projected to score 14 or fewer points according to the Vegas odds. Going on the road against a red-hot Seattle team is not a great spot to target St. Louis offensive talent, not even Todd Gurley.
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback: Russell Wilson (FD $8,800, DK $7,200) didn’t have a great game against the Rams in the first meeting between these two teams, but that was early in the season, when St. Louis was a much stronger defense overall. After allowing just five passing touchdowns through Week 9, the Rams have since allowed 13 in six games, with a rushing touchdown mixed in that span as well. Wilson has been on the opposite trend, starting slow but turning it on as of late, and is the hottest passer in the NFL (along with Cam Newton, of course). With running back injuries preventing Seattle from getting the ground game going, they’re just leaning on the passing game and letting Wilson run, and that’s been great for his fantasy output. Even though the Rams are a slightly above average defense, Wilson is too hot to ignore, and is worthy of a spot on any lineup in any format.
Running Game: The Seahawks dished out carries to a couple of newly obtained backs, Christine Michael (FD $5,500, DK $4,400) and Bryce Brown (FD $5,000, DK $3,600), and while both had their moments, it was Michael who saw the most work and who should continue to lead the way. Fred Jackson (FD $5,100, DK $3,500) was the only back to see a target in the passing game, meaning both Michael and Brown have limited upside without a role as one of Wilson’s potential targets. Michael is the preferred play, especially since the Rams are prone to allow big points to opposing backs (eighth-most in the league), but this is hardly a must-play situation.
Pass Catchers: Doug Baldwin (FD $7,700, DK $6,700) has scored ten times on 20 catches over the last four games. That’s an unsustainable rate of everything, but over a small sample size like four (or five, or six) games, anything is possible. There’s no reason to believe that Baldwin will slow down any time soon, and this week’s game against St. Louis, while a tough matchup, could be another multi-touchdown game for the dynamic receiver. Baldwin works primarily out of the slot, which keeps him away from the talented outside corners of the Rams, and makes him a top play in any format yet again this weekend. The other Seattle wideouts, Tyler Lockett (FD $6,200, DK $4,500) and Jermaine Kearse (FD $5,800, DK $3,200), are viable as well. But both will face tough opponents on the outside in Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson, and therefore they are a lot tougher to trust. If Baldwin is unable to go this weekend due to injury, however, both Kearse and Lockett become stronger plays, even with the tough matchup.
The Takeaway: The Seahawks should continue to roll this week, and while the Rams seem like a tough matchup on paper, they have been declining defensively as of late. Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin are obvious plays, but that doesn’t mean they’re not great plays. Kearse, Lockett and Michael are the other Seahawks worthy of your attention.
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals
| Green Bay Packers | Arizona Cardinals | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:25 p.m. | Univ. of Phoenix Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | 49.5 | 22.5 | -4.5 | 49.5 | 27 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.8 | 10 | 26 | 9 | Offense | 31.8 | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.2 | 6 | 14 | 4 | Opp. Defense | 18.9 | 5 | 9 | 22 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 6 | 8 | 18 | Green Bay Packers | 14 | 10 | 9 | 21 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cobb | 118 | 70 | 6 | 822 | Fitzgerald | 134 | 99 | 7 | 1131 | |
| Adams | 82 | 43 | 1 | 387 | Floyd | 77 | 45 | 6 | 722 | |
| Jones | 75 | 41 | 8 | 742 | Brown | 86 | 58 | 6 | 955 | |
| Rodgers | 74 | 50 | 7 | 460 | Fells | 26 | 20 | 3 | 304 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Eddie Lacy (GB, Questionable), Andre Ellington (ARI, Questionable)
GB Matchup Rating: 4.0
ARI Matchup Rating: 7.5
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: The intelligent folks in Vegas responsible for setting lines are a lot more confident in the Green Bay offense in this matchup than I am. Aaron Rodgers (FD $8,500, DK $7,000) is a fantastic quarterback, probably the best in the entire league, and can light up even the best defense when he’s on this game. But his offense is lacking in weapons, and his opponent this week is a defense that has picked off nearly as many passes as it has allowed for touchdowns (18 to 20). The Cardinals don’t get as many sacks as other top pass defenses, which may be a reason to trust Rodgers a bit more behind his shaky offensive line, but it’s still tough to expect the 3+ touchdowns we’ll need for Rodgers to keep up with the other top passers in his price range. I would fade him entirely this weekend.
Running Game: The Cardinals allow the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL, and rank second in DVOA against the run. Eddie Lacy (FD $6,300, DK $4,900) is hurting, and when you combine that with the tough matchup, he becomes much less desirable. Still, he’s very cheap and has gone over 100 yards rushing in three of his last five games. His teammate James Starks (FD $5,600, DK $3,800) holds more appeal to me this week, as he will get more opportunities to catch the ball out of the backfield, a rare weakness for the Cardinal defense. Arizona ranks 19th in DVOA against backs in the passing game, while ranking seventh or better against every other group of pass catchers. Starks has carved out a nice role of 7-11 carries per game and a handful of targets, and he’s a PPR GPP play that likely won’t be as popular as he should be.
Pass Catchers: The loss of Tyrann Mathieu will definitely impact the Arizona defense, and may be the reason for Vegas’ optimism in regards to the Packers team total in this game. Mathieu would have spent most of his time lined up against Randall Cobb (FD $6,800, DK $6,100), who will now see more open space as he works out of the slot. Cobb has just not been as productive without Jordy Nelson drawing attention on the outside, and even with an improved matchup due to injury, Cobb is just a tournament option. Interested in one of the other Green Bay wideouts? Davante Adams (FD $5,600, DK $3,600) has the most consistent volume, but is the least consistent performer. James Jones (FD $5,600, DK $4,000) comes and goes, but when he’s involved, he’s a fantasy goldmine. And Richard Rodgers (FD $5,300, DK $4,000) will likely never repeat his Week 13 performance against Detroit, even against a Cardinals defense that is slightly more favorable than average against tight ends from a fantasy points allowed perspective. Cobb is the wideout to feature in more of your lineups than any other Packer pass catcher, while Adams and Jones are the others to consider.
The Takeaway: The Packers are currently sitting at an implied total of around 23 points, which they may reach, but it won’t be via an efficient and fantasy-friendly offensive display. This team is in needed of a bit of a retooling on offense, including the return of Jordy Nelson, before we can expect weekly fantasy stars again.
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: On the other side of the ball, I do trust Carson Palmer (FD $8,700, DK $7,000) and the Cardinal offense to live up to their Vegas expectations, currently set at just shy of 28 points. Arizona has a ton of upside on offense, even in tough matchups (39 points, 451 yards against Seattle, 27 points, 524 yards against St. Louis), and the Packers and their 13th ranked weighted DVOA defense just aren’t enough to scare me off. Palmer has cooled off a bit over the past few weeks, scoring only six times over the last four games, but with a more competitive offense on the other side of the field this time around, he may be called upon to do a bit more. The Packers rank eighth in DVOA against the pass, but did allow Cam Newton to score four total touchdowns, and Philip Rivers to throw for 503 yards and two scores earlier this year. Palmer has been playing well in all sorts of tough environments all season, and he is on the Tom Brady level of “costly but worth it” in tournament contests.
Running Game: David Johnson (FD $7,300, DK $5,800) will get the bulk of the running back work again this week against a defense that ranks 27th in numberFire’s run defense rankings, and 18th in DVOA. The Packers allow an above average yards per carry number, and have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns on the season, ten of which have come from backs. Johnson is locked into volume as the lone healthy back, and even if Andre Ellington returns, he will play a complementary role to Johnson. The rookie is a virtual lock to go over 100 yards, and if he’s able to score (something he’s done a lot of this season), he will return value yet again. He’s a core play in all formats.
Pass Catchers: It is virtually impossible to sort out the Arizona receiver situation on a weekly basis when all of them are healthy, and since the trio move around and play different roles on the offense on a regular basis, it’s difficult to single out the best one-on-one matchup for any of them. The Packers have a decent set of corners, anyway, and have held receivers in check for most of the season. The exceptions have come from receivers of all types, from Demaryius Thomas to Doug Baldwin, so there are no methods by which we can narrow down this trio of receivers. Larry Fitzgerald (FD $7,300, DK $7,100) is never a bad play, as the veteran has good chemistry with his quarterback. John Brown (FD $6,400, DK $5,300) and Michael Floyd (FD $6,300, DK $4,900) have the big play potential. It’s really a toss up as to which ones will be the ones to target this week. The only intel I can go on is the fact that is has been a team’s most talented receiver who has done the best against the Packers this season, and while that sounds like an obvious statement, it’s about the only thing we have to go on. Fitzgerald is the best all-around player at wideout for the Cardinals, so he would be my preferred option this weekend out of this trio of pass catchers.
The Takeaway: The Cardinals should score a few times as they seek to stay ahead of the Packers on the scoreboard and in the conference standings. David Johnson is a core play, and Carson Palmer is a strong option at QB. The wideouts are tough to figure out, but Larry Fitzgerald is never a bad pick.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 8:30 p.m. | M&T Bank Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10 | 47 | 28.5 | 10 | 47 | 18.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.0 | 4 | 5 | 12 | Offense | 20.9 | 22 | 8 | 26 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.7 | 25 | 14 | 11 | Opp. Defense | 20.5 | 11 | 31 | 5 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 23 | 4 | 30 | 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 26 | 2 | 32 | 23 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Brown | 165 | 116 | 9 | 1614 | Aiken | 106 | 62 | 5 | 802 | |
| Bryant | 86 | 48 | 7 | 792 | Givens | 46 | 18 | 1 | 326 | |
| Wheaton | 69 | 38 | 4 | 651 | Brown | 30 | 14 | 0 | 112 | |
| Miller | 71 | 52 | 1 | 470 | Williams | 33 | 24 | 1 | 199 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Martavis Bryant, DeAngelo Williams, Heath Miller (PIT, Probable), Matt Schaub (BAL, Probable, may not start)
PIT Matchup Rating: 8.5
BAL Matchup Rating: 3.0
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: If you only look at the season-long numbers for Ben Roethlisberger (FD $8,900, DK $6,800) out of context, you’d assume he’s having a down season overall. And setting injuries aside, which obviously have impacted his overall production, he’s faced some very tough matchups and been unable to overcome them in typical Big Ben fashion. However, in easy matchups this year, he’s been a fantasy superstar (as we’ve come to expect), and this week should be more of that. Ben had 369 yards and three scores against the Niners, 379 yards and three scores against the Browns, and 364 yards and four scores against the Colts. The Ravens are on that same level of bad defensively, ranking 29th in DVOA against the pass, and seventh in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. They have had their fair share of easy matchups as of late, but Russell Wilson tore them apart two weeks ago, and earlier this season quarterbacks were scoring multiple touchdowns every week against Baltimore. Ben is a strong GPP option, but there are equally appealing players in his price range with even better situations this weekend for cash contests.
Running Game: The Ravens are a surprisingly good run defense, ranking ninth in DVOA and sixth in numberFire’s rankings. DeAngelo Williams (FD $7,400, DK $6,500) is, therefore, a risky play, but his involvement in the passing game keeps him viable on PPR sites. Still, Baltimore has allowed the second-fewest FanDuel points to backs this season, and Williams is a risky tournament play at best.
Pass Catchers: When Big Ben is starting, Antonio Brown (FD $9,300, DK $9,300) has unlimited potential. Twice already this season he’s gone over 15 receptions, and he’s scored multiple touchdowns in three of his last five games. Even if this was a tough matchup (it’s not, the Ravens allow the most points to opposing wideouts), Brown would still be a strong play in all formats. However, despite not having quite the same floor and ceiling, Martavis Bryant (FD $7,200, DK $5,600) is an equally strong play due to his ratio of price to expected performance. Getting around ten targets per week, the speedster is priced like a WR2 but performing like a WR1 from a season-long perspective. The production doesn’t come all at once from Bryant, so you may catch him at the wrong time when you roster him, but he has been held out of the end zone only three times this season. According to DVOA, the Ravens are much worse against WR2 than WR1, which is a cherry on top of a great resume for Bryant ahead of this weekend’s action. Both Steeler receivers are core plays. Markus Wheaton (FD $6,000, DK $4,100) won’t recreate the 200+ yard performance he had against Seattle any time soon, but as long as he’s seeing around ten targets in an offense this good, he can go in a tournament lineup of two. The Ravens are tough on tight ends (fourth-fewest points allowed), and Heath Miller (FD $5,300, DK $3,400) has been inconsistent (even with Roethlisberger), so I will stick to recommending one of the three wideouts.
The Takeaway: Big Ben and any one (or two?) of his three wide receivers are the top plays in a tournament this weekend, while Bryant and Brown are good on their own in your cash lineups.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: The Ravens are preparing for 2016 at this point in this season, which means they may give Ryan Mallett the start under center. We saw enough from Mallett earlier this season to know he’s not a viable daily fantasy option, even against a defense that ranks among the top-ten in points allowed to opposing QBs. He has no weapons to throw to, anyway, so even if you buy into his talent, it’s a terrible situation for fantasy output. No matter who starts at QB, it’s best to avoid this passing game.
Running Game: Javorius Allen (FD $5,800, DK $4,200) hasn’t done much as a runner so far this season, but has been productive as a receiver out of the backfield, something he’ll have to do against an elite Steeler run defense. Pittsburgh ranks first in numberFire’s run defense rankings, and they’ve allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the RB position. Allen will need to haul in a bunch of passes to pay off his salary, which makes him a risky play.
Pass Catchers: Kamar Aiken (FD $6,600, DK $5,400) has been surprisingly productive over the past month and a half, despite all of the issues around him on offense. He’s getting a big chunk of the targets on offense, and is responding with solid stat lines that seem to improve week over week. The Steelers allow a ton of points to wideouts, having allowed nine 100-yard outings this season, and so no matter who is under center, they should be able to force the ball to Aiken often enough to have a decent fantasy score. He’s the top player on this Baltimore offense for DFS purposes, and it’s not even close. Maxx Williams (FD $4,800, DK $3,000) is a decent option at tight end, a position the Steelers have allowed the eighth-most points to this year. His role isn’t secure, but if he gets a handful of targets, he might stumble into a big play or a touchdown and return value.
The Takeaway: The Ravens are moving onto next year after injuries cost them a shot at competing in 2015. No matter who starts under center, Kamar Aiken is a GPP option, but otherwise, steer clear of most of the offensive talent on this roster.
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos
| Cincinnati Bengals | Denver Broncos | |||||||||
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| Monday – 8:30 p.m. | Mile High Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 40.5 | 18.5 | -3.5 | 40.5 | 22 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.0 | 4 | 12 | 15 | Offense | 22.0 | 18 | 18 | 18 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Opp. Defense | 17.4 | 1 | 21 | 8 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Denver Broncos | 1 | 14 | 1 | 20 | Cincinnati Bengals | 2 | 13 | 10 | 10 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Green | 118 | 77 | 8 | 1206 | Thomas | 156 | 93 | 5 | 1128 | |
| Sanu | 44 | 29 | 1 | 409 | Sanders | 124 | 67 | 5 | 998 | |
| Jones | 91 | 57 | 4 | 778 | Latimer | 11 | 6 | 1 | 60 | |
| Eifert | 70 | 48 | 12 | 564 | Daniels | 69 | 40 | 3 | 432 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: A.J. Green (CIN, Questionable), Tyler Eifert (CIN, Doubtful), Peyton Manning (DEN, Out), C.J. Anderson (DEN, Questionable)
CIN Matchup Rating: 2.5
DEN Matchup Rating: 2.5
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: AJ McCarron (FD $6,000, DK $5,100) managed the Bengals’ offense well in his first start last week, but showed little upside in a premium matchup against the Niners. This week, against the league’s top-ranked DVOA pass defense, top-ranked weighted DVOA defense, and top-ranked pass and overall numberFire defense, he’ll need to do a bit more if he wants to get some points on the board. The Broncos have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three of their last four games, but those have come to Brady, Roethlisberger, and Carr. McCarron is not even remotely close to that level of passer, and his floor and ceiling in this matchup are far too low to consider. Spend a couple of extra bucks on Teddy Bridgewater if you really want to go cheap at QB.
Running Game: Jeremy Hill (FD $6,100, DK $4,900) and Giovani Bernard (FD $5,500, DK $4,300) will split opportunities against one of the league’s elite defense, which takes both out of consideration for DFS purposes. The Broncos have the third-best DVOA run defense, and the top DVOA pass defense against running backs. They have allowed a decent amount of fantasy points to opposing backs, but figuring out which Cincy back (if either) will get the bulk of the fantasy production is a futile task.
Pass Catchers: The Broncos have elite corners and a strong pass rush, which will limit the upside of any receiver lined up against them. That’s why they have allowed the fewest points to the position this season, at nearly half the total of the most porous secondaries. I want to believe that A.J. Green (FD $8,400, DK $7,100) can overcome all of that and still produce, but at his price, he’s just not worth the risk. With Tyler Eifert (FD $6,300, DK $4,900) unlikely to play, there are no appealing options in this receiving corps.
The Takeaway: This will be an incredibly fun game to watch live, but it’s a terrible fantasy football matchup for both teams. The Bengals just don’t have much upside against an elite defense like the Broncos’.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: Brock Osweiler (FD $6,800, DK $5,100) is dealing with an injury, but if he’s able to sort himself out ahead of Monday night’s game, he will start against a Bengal defense that has allowed the third-fewest points to QBs all season. However, the underlying metrics suggest this might be a bit of an overperformance from Cincinnati. Either way, Osweiler doesn’t offer a ton of upside, as his strong fantasy performance against the Steelers is offset by letdowns against weak defenses from Oakland and San Diego in weeks prior. Again, Teddy Bridgewater is the preferred QB in this price range, but Osweiler is a better pick than many of the backups and journeymen starting for various teams.
Running Game: With C.J. Anderson (FD $5,500, DK $3,700) less than 100%, and proven ineffective when not fully healthy, Ronnie Hillman (FD $6,200, DK $4,200) will be the back to target if you want to play an RB in this matchup. The Broncos are home favorites, and numberFire rank the Bengals 18th in run defense, so if there’s a spot to target in this entire game, it might be the Bronco run game. Even then, Hillman was a disappointment last week, and is a secondary tournament option this week.
Pass Catchers: Lots of people will look at last week’s big numbers for Emmanuel Sanders (FD $7,500, DK $5,800) and flock to him this weekend, but Demaryius Thomas (FD $7,800, DK $6,800) continued to be a top target for Osweiler, and shouldn’t be ignored. Sanders was well behind Thomas in targets from the towering backup QB until last week, and even then, Thomas saw 12 passes thrown his way and caught two touchdowns. Thomas is the better play this weekend, as he and Sanders will split routes run against Adam Jones, and should be able to get open against Dre Kirkpatrick when given the opportunity. He’s a bigger threat to score a touchdown, and has shown good chemistry with Osweiler for weeks now.
The Takeaway: The Broncos are home favorites, and despite a fairly tough matchup, there are a couple of players to consider. Thomas is the top play, while Sanders, Hillman and Osweiler are worthy of different levels of interest in GPP contests.