NFL Grind Down: Week 16
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
New England Patriots at New York Jets
| New England Patriots | New York Jets | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | MetLife Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 45.5 | 24.25 | 3 | 45.5 | 21.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 31.1 | 3 | 2 | 28 | Offense | 24.6 | 11 | 14 | 11 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.4 | 8 | 18 | 2 | Opp. Defense | 19.2 | 6 | 12 | 10 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Jets | 11 | 3 | 20 | 9 | New England Patriots | 6 | 12 | 16 | 7 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Edelman | 88 | 61 | 7 | 715 | Marshall | 147 | 93 | 11 | 1,261 | |
| Amendola | 83 | 63 | 3 | 642 | Decker | 117 | 72 | 10 | 930 | |
| LaFell | 69 | 34 | 0 | 489 | Kerley | 26 | 16 | 2 | 152 | |
| Gronkowski | 107 | 66 | 11 | 1,072 | Cumberland | 14 | 5 | 0 | 77 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Julian Edelman (NE, Doubtful), Brandon LaFell, Danny Amendola (NE, Questionable)
NE Matchup Rating: 5.5
NYJ Matchup Rating: 4.0
New England Patriots
Quarterback: The last time these two teams met, the Patriots were able to pass the ball against a defense that had previously not allowed a passer to go over 250 yards, and had picked off more passes than it had allowed touchdowns. Tom Brady (FD $8,800, DK $7,500) threw for 355 yards and two scores in that game, and ran for another touchdown, which set off a string of poor defensive performances for the Jets. New York now ranks ninth in DVOA against the pass and has allowed the 22nd most points to the position, which doesn’t seem like a favorable matchup, but it is certainly good enough for Brady and company. Brady’s weapons are as injured as ever, but that’s not a good enough reason to count him out. There are better value plays this weekend, but Brady is always a solid bet for production.
Running Game: The Patriots have added Steven Jackson to their backfield, further complicating an already impossible running back situation to figure out. The Jets have the top DVOA defense against the run, anyway, and the last time these teams met, the Pats handed the ball off only five times. James White (FD $6,600, DK $4,700) should see a handful of targets in the passing game, but he’s priced out of bargain territory and is tough to justify in relation to other options with better roles and volume. I will just avoid this situation altogether.
Pass Catchers: Rob Gronkowski (FD $8,200, DK $7,600) had a big game against the Jets the last time these teams met, and will be the best, healthiest passing game option for the Pats this weekend. If you can afford him, you should play him. Julian Edelman doesn’t appear to be ready to return, but he is practicing, and if he plays he’s a solid option. Otherwise, we’re left to sort through a batch of injured receivers who may or may not see coverage from Darrelle Revis. If Danny Amendola (FD $6,500, DK $5,600) plays, he’s the top option, but if not, Brandon LaFell (FD $6,300, DK $4,500) will be on his own and will likely draw coverage from Revis. That would bring Keshawn Martin (FD $5,400, DK $3,000) into the discussion as a possible GPP play as the next receiver in line.
The Takeaway: Keep an eye on the injury report, and be prepared to start the best New England receiver that is healthy enough to play in a couple of tournament lineups. Or just stick to Brady and Gronkowski, who should connect for a touchdown and quite a few yards as the Pats air it out against the Jets yet again.
New York Jets
Quarterback: When these two teams met in Week 7, Ryan Fitzpatrick (FD $7,700, DK $5,200) threw for 295 yards and scored two touchdowns. The Patriots aren’t a particularly good matchup for opposing passers, but Fitzpatrick defied the odds and managed to put together a decent performance anyway. The Jets’ QB has been scoring touchdowns at a healthy pace, and adds a nice floor with his 20ish rushing yards every week in addition to his 35+ pass attempts. It defies logic to trust Fitzpatrick in a matchup with New England, who rank 11th in DVOA against the pass and seventh in weighted overall DVOA, but he will be very low owned and has proven to be capable of scoring touchdowns in bunches.
Running Game: According to DVOA, the Patriots are below average at defending running backs in the passing game. That means the Jets’ recent decision to include Bilal Powell (FD $5,900, DK $3,900) in the air attack more frequently could pay off in this heavyweight matchup. Powell get a handful of carries per game, but over the past five weeks, he has target totals over 7, 5, 13, 5 and 7. Even seven targets against the Patriots would be good for a nice chunk of yards, as we’ve seen recently from LeSean McCoy, C.J. Anderson, Darren Sproles and Jonas Gray. If he manages to find the end zone, as well, he won’t need to do a single thing on the ground against the Patriots 12th-ranked DVOA run defense to hit value on PPR sites. He’s an interesting GPP play. His increased role in the offense does diminish the upside for Chris Ivory (FD $6,900, DK $4,700), who didn’t have the best of games against the Patriots last time out, anyway.
Pass Catchers: Brandon Marshall (FD $8,300, DK $7,600) and Eric Decker (FD $7,600, DK $6,500) are the only two Jets pass catchers to consider, and based on what we’ve seen so far this year, this should be a Decker game. The slot receiver had a solid game against New England earlier this year, and fellow interior receivers Chris Hogan, Dwayne Harris and Jarvis Landry posted respectable stat lines against the Pats, who rank 27th at defending third, fourth and fifth receiving options according to Football Outsiders. This generally translates to “poor against slot receivers,” so even though Decker is technically not the third receiver for New York, his role lines up with other third receivers, who have had higher efficiency than would be expected against New England. However, don’t let that scare you away from Marshall, who is a very good receiver and will still receive a ton of targets and is a red zone threat.
The Takeaway: The Jets are expected to hang with the Patriots in this one, and to put points on the board, New York will likely have to get their playmakers the ball in the passing game. That means Fitzpatrick, Powell, Decker and Marshall are all viable in tournaments.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
| Houston Texans | Tennessee Titans | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | LP Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.6 | 27 | 17 | 16 | Offense | 19.2 | 28 | 22 | 21 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.6 | 24 | 11 | 17 | Opp. Defense | 21.5 | 13 | 2 | 16 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tennessee Titans | 29 | 7 | 22 | 24 | Houston Texans | 15 | 18 | 4 | 16 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hopkins | 169 | 97 | 10 | 1,315 | Wright | 57 | 33 | 3 | 407 | |
| Washington | 86 | 43 | 3 | 610 | Douglas | 58 | 28 | 2 | 307 | |
| Shorts | 75 | 42 | 3 | 531 | Green-Beckham | 59 | 30 | 3 | 528 | |
| Fiedorowicz | 20 | 14 | 1 | 147 | Walker | 104 | 76 | 6 | 935 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Brian Hoyer (HOU, Questionable), Cecil Shorts (HOU, Out), Marcus Mariota (TEN, Out)
HOU Matchup Rating: 5.5
TEN Matchup Rating: 2.0
Houston Texans
Quarterback: If Brian Hoyer (FD $6,700, DK $5,200) is cleared to start against the Titans, he would be a viable tournament option against a defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs on the season. That ranking has moved up over the past few weeks, as Blake Bortles and Ryan Fitzpatrick combined for eight touchdowns and nearly 600 yards against the Titans in recent weeks. Hoyer himself threw for 235 yards and two scores against Tennessee earlier this season, and in a game the Texans badly need to win, he’ll likely match and exceed those numbers. If he’s unable to go, Brandon Weeden (FD $6,300, DK $5,100) is not really a viable alternative, especially since he’s not priced as a bargain on either of the main sites (his DraftKings price is low, but so are many other viable bargain plays).
Running Game: The Titans do not have a good run defense per DVOA (25th), but since they just don’t allow touchdowns to running backs (eight all season, six rushing), this inefficiency isn’t something we can really bank on. Alfred Blue (FD $5,700, DK $3,700) will get plenty of opportunities, but the last time these teams met, he was unable to make anything happen on 14 carries. He can’t be viewed as more as a very speculative GPP play, and no other Houston back is viable, even if you think this is a great matchup and that the touchdowns are due to regress for the Tennessee run defense.
Pass Catchers: DeAndre Hopkins (FD $8,500, DK $8,400) remains the player to target in the Houston passing game, and while his upside would be bolstered if Hoyer starts, he’s still viable even if Weeden gets the call. His floor isn’t as safe as we thought at the start of the season, but his upside is tremendous, and the Titans are a favorable matchup for receivers (23rd against WR1 in DVOA, 27th against the pass according to numberFire). He scored the last time these teams met, and he has a good chance to do it again this week. Nate Washington (FD $5,200, DK $3,200) gets a handful of targets every week, but hasn’t scored since the Week 8 meeting between these teams, but with Cecil Shorts (FD $5,600, DK $3,300) out, Washington should see a boost in opportunities.
The Takeaway: The Texans and fantasy owners alike will hope for Brian Hoyer return this week, as he would be a viable play along with DeAndre Hopkins. Otherwise, the Texans are a tough team to trust with Brandon Weeden at QB.
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: Zach Mettenberger (FD $6,000, DK $5,100) will start under center for the Titans, but he’ll face a Houston defense that is playing very well as of late. The Texans rank tenth on the season in DVOA against the pass, and fourth in numberFire’s rankings, and a lot of that is due to their play since the last time these teams met. Since shutting out Mettenberger in Week 8, the Texans have allowed nine total touchdowns to opposing QBs in six games, while picking off six passes. No QB has gone over 228 yards passing over that span, either. This is a terrible spot to try to get creative with a backup QB in a tough matchup.
Running Game: The Texans are far closer to average against the run than they are against the pass, but they’ve been keeping backs out of the end zone since their previous meeting with the Titans (one total touchdown to opposing RBs over that span of seven games). Antonio Andrews (FD $5,300, DK $3,700) doesn’t have a ton of upside, anyway, as he usually gets 10-15 carries for about 50 yards, and even with a touchdown, he’s unlikely to approach 20 fantasy points or flash any kind of upside. The Titans are underdogs, even at home, and game flow won’t give Andrews a ton of opportunities to rack up yards.
Pass Catchers: When Mettenberger is under center, the focus on throwing the ball to Delanie Walker (FD $6,600, DK $5,600) remains the same. Houston is an above average defense against tight ends, but Walker caught all six of his targets for 62 yards the last time these teams met, and he will likely see even more work this week as the Titans chase a deficit all afternoon. He’s a contrarian GPP play. The exciting option at receiver is Dorial Green-Beckham (FD $5,700, DK $4,000), who has 100 or more yards in two of his last three, and has seen his target count rise week by week as of late. The Texans, however, have a capable corner to shadow DGB in Johnathan Joseph, which does put a damper on his expectations. It will be interesting to see how he responds to being the focal point for an opposing defense, but that interest is only worth a flier in a tournament or two, not a role as a core player in your lineups this weekend.
The Takeaway: The Titans don’t have a lot to get excited about on offense, and the two pass catchers worth mentioning both have subpar matchups. It’s probably best to just avoid the Tennessee offense, but if you must, target Walker and DGB.