NFL Grind Down: Week 16 - Page Two
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Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
| Tennessee Titans | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 44 | 24.25 | 4.5 | 44 | 19.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.3 | 12 | 24 | 3 | Offense | 18.6 | 27 | 28 | 24 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.6 | 28 | 3 | 21 | Opp. Defense | 23.1 | 18 | 30 | 7 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7 | 16 | 6 | 10 | Tennessee Titans | 29 | 4 | 32 | 13 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 86 | 53 | 7 | 800 | Robinson | 126 | 59 | 6 | 654 | |
| Sharpe | 73 | 38 | 2 | 474 | Hurns | 76 | 35 | 3 | 477 | |
| Wright | 39 | 27 | 3 | 395 | Lee | 89 | 54 | 2 | 728 | |
| Walker | 86 | 57 | 6 | 742 | Koyack | 18 | 14 | 0 | 124 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Allen Hurns (JAX WR) – Out (Hamstring)
TEN Matchup Rating: 5.5
JAX Matchup Rating: 4.5
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: Although the Jaguars are a bad football team, it’s not entirely due to their defense. They are a reasonable defensive unit with an improving young secondary, and I rarely target many players against them. However, a guy like Marcus Mariota presents a different kind of challenge. Mariota logged 270 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns the last time these teams met, and he didn’t have to do a lot of the work, as the Titans built a 27-0 halftime lead. Mariota has struggled a bit in tough matchups against Kansas City and Denver over the last two weeks, but he should be better here. The quarterback pricing across the industry is strange, as it seems like every quarterback comes at a huge discount on DK. Mariota is priced at $6,000 over there, while he is $7,800 on FD. Since that’s the case for virtually every quarterback, it’s hard to gauge where the best spot is to target some of these guys. Relatively speaking when compared to other quarterbacks, Mariota is value-priced on both sites. Though I don’t love the matchup, Jacksonville is in disarray and just lost their head coach. You can certainly do worse than Mariota.
Running Backs: Remember the discussion at the beginning of the season? It seemed like it was only a matter of time before Derrick Henry took the reins as the starting running back in Tennessee. Fast forward 15 weeks, and you have DeMarco Murray as a top five running back on the year and a team that is tied for first place. Even though Murray is having a fine season, Henry has earned his way to more playing time. He rushed for 58 yards and two scores last week while handling nine carries compared to 18 for Murray. Murray is seeing 67% of the carries but is playing on about 75% of the snaps, and that makes sense with Murray being used more on passing downs. It’s easy to get down on Murray because Henry has been scoring touchdowns, and Murray certainly isn’t one of my favorite plays at his current prices. However, he can be considered as a low-owned, high-upside GPP play in a neutral matchup.
Pass Catchers: Rishard Matthews has slowed a bit in recent weeks, but he continues to play on almost every offensive snap, and his last two games were very tough matchups against the Broncos and Chiefs. He will likely draw a lot of emerging corner Jalen Ramsey in this game, so my interest is still tepid at best. Jacksonville has ranked in the middle of the pack against tight ends, and I suppose you could consider Delanie Walker at tight end. He is a reasonable cash game target and put up 4/75 in the first meeting, but remember that one turned into a blowout quickly. Nobody else from this inconsistent group is in play.
The Takeaway: Even though this is a huge game for the Titans and they are road favorites against the reeling Jaguars, it’s hard to get super excited about a lot of players. Marcus Mariota is a fine GPP quarterback option, but he is one of many QB options. DeMarco Murray is expensive and has been losing some carries, including some goal line work, to Derrick Henry. Rishard Matthews and Delanie Walker aren’t must haves. Mariota is probably the guy I will own the most shares of, but even that won’t be overly large.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: I don’t have much to say about the Jaguars at this point. They are a mess. They fired their head coach after last week’s game, a game in which Blake Bortles had one of the worst performances you will see from an NFL quarterback. He completed just 12 of 28 passes for 92 yards. Yes, that’s 92 yards. I did not miss a “2” or even a “1” in front of that. This team is in disarray, and there is no reason to even look to Bortles as a fantasy option at this point.
Running Backs: Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon split the work pretty much right down the middle last week in a game that Jacksonville was competitive in throughout. I want no part of a time share on a bad team that is averaging just 98 team rushing yards per game, which has them ranked 24th in the league. You can find safer, and higher upside, options elsewhere.
Pass Catchers: This unit has been smothered by the ineffectiveness of Bortles all season long. Their leading receiver is Marqise Lee, who is averaging just 52 yards per game. Allen Robinson has been a letdown all year long. I’m finally done trying to figure this out.
The Takeaway: When it comes to this Jaguars team with no head coach and limited talent on offense, just say no. They are five point home underdogs against a Tennessee team that has everything to play for and is tied for first in the AFC South. Of course, you can target the Tennessee defense, as any defense is in play against Bortles and company.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
| Minnesota Vikings | Green Bay Packers | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 43 | 18.25 | -6.5 | 43 | 24.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.9 | 25 | 20 | 32 | Offense | 25.9 | 7 | 10 | 15 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.2 | 22 | 27 | 10 | Opp. Defense | 18.5 | 6 | 4 | 18 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Green Bay Packers | 24 | 12 | 31 | 25 | Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 11 | 2 | 18 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Diggs | 106 | 80 | 2 | 874 | Nelson | 135 | 82 | 12 | 1,037 | |
| Thielen | 76 | 56 | 3 | 758 | Cobb | 84 | 60 | 4 | 610 | |
| Patterson | 64 | 49 | 2 | 401 | Adams | 105 | 65 | 9 | 922 | |
| Rudolph | 108 | 66 | 6 | 670 | Cook | 38 | 23 | 1 | 284 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Stefon Diggs (MIN WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Hip) / Adrian Peterson (MIN RB) – Out (Knee, Groin) / Randall Cobb (GB WR) – Questionable (Ankle) / James Starks (GB RB) – Out (Concussion)
MIN Matchup Rating: 4.0
GB Matchup Rating: 7.0
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: Sam Bradford has crashed down to earth after a good start to the season, but it’s not totally his fault. Minnesota simply has no running game to keep teams honest, and this has stalled their offense to a halt along with an awful offensive line. They didn’t score a single touchdown last week against the Colts at home, and now they have to travel to Green Bay to take on a surging Packers team that now has a legitimate chance to make the playoffs. Needless to say, you don’t want Bradford on your DFS rosters. He has just 14 touchdowns in 13 starts this season.
Running Backs: As I referenced above, the Vikings simply have no running game. The offensive line is an absolute mess. They rank last in the NFL with just 71 team rushing yards per game, and they hit a new low last week with just 34 rushing yards against the Colts. Adrian Peterson returned to cloud up the situation, and he is already missing practice time this week with groin and knee ailments. If Peterson plays this week, you have to avoid the whole backfield. If Peterson sits out, you can maybe consider Jerick McKinnon, but there’s really no need to go here.
FRIDAY UPDATE – Peterson is out, so upgrade McKinnon, especially on DK where his pass catching skills help him more. He’s also very cheap at $4,000.
Pass Catchers: Green Bay has been solid against tight ends all year, so I am not jumping aboard the Kyle Rudolph train even though he is coming off a solid game. That leaves Stefon Diggs as the only useful piece here, and even he has gone dormant. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Halloween. The good news is that he lit up the Packers for 9/182/1 in the first meeting between these two teams, and the Packers often struggle with elite receivers. I don’t love the Vikings in this spot, but I can see using Diggs, especially in GPPs. He is a more viable play on FanDuel where his price is just $200 more than it is on DraftKings. Nobody else even remotely interests me here.
The Takeaway: Outside of Stefon Diggs and a possible look at Jerick McKinnon if Adrian Peterson sits out, there’s not much to like on a Vikings squad that appears to have mailed it in for the season. They are projected to score just 18 points in this game, and there is no reason to go overboard on a full slate of games.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: Reports are encouraging on the status of Aaron Rodgers, who appeared to be a full participant in practice on Wednesday after struggling through calf and hamstring injuries over the past few weeks. He struggled a bit in the frigid conditions at Soldier Field last week, but I am not going to hold that one against him. The issue is that this isn’t a great matchup against a Minnesota team that has a shutdown corner in Xavier Rhodes and ranks 5th in DVOA against the pass. If you are paying up for quarterback this week, it makes more sense to go to Tom Brady or Matt Ryan, though DraftKings is tempting you with a cheaper price tag. I’ll probably have some GPP shares on DK, but Rodgers is far from a must play in Week 16.
Running Backs: How about little #88 for the Packers? Ty Montgomery showed off previously unseen upside as a running back last week against the Bears, rushing for 162 yards and two scores on a whopping 10.1 yards per carry. James Starks has been dealing with a concussion and is pretty much out of the rotation for now, while Christine Michael has served a minor change-of-pace role. Montgomery played on 84% of the snaps last week. Minnesota ranks in the middle of the pack in rush defense, and Montgomery could certainly have another fine day. The problem is that his price has seen a spike on both major sites, and he won’t have huge numbers most weeks. I will probably pass here, but there are worse plays on the board.
Pass Catchers: You can make an argument that Xavier Rhodes is the best cover corner in the league, and the Vikings are generally good about allowing him to take away the best receiver on the opposition. That has me off Jordy Nelson this week. That’s not to disparage the other Minnesota corners, either, as they are solid as a whole. The one area where they have struggled is against tight ends, and Jared Cook is coming off a 6/85 game against the Bears where he played on almost two-thirds of the offensive snaps. He is a sneaky cheap target at tight end. I’m not enamored with any of the wide receivers, as Randall Cobb has been disappointing, while Nelson and Adams have tough matchups and don’t come cheap.
The Takeaway: This is a big game for the Packers, but I am not in love with their fantasy options, as nobody really comes cheap, and the Vikings have a tough defense. Aaron Rodgers is a decent play on DK, while you can give Ty Montgomery a look as a mid-range option after his huge game in Week 15. If you want a sneaky play, don’t sleep on Jared Cook. He looks as healthy as he has all year, and the Vikings often struggle against athletic tight ends.
San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns
| San Diego Chargers | Cleveland Browns | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6 | 44 | 25 | 6 | 44 | 19 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.1 | 4 | 9 | 26 | Offense | 15.7 | 31 | 26 | 25 | |
| Opp. Defense | 29.1 | 31 | 14 | 31 | Opp. Defense | 26.1 | 29 | 23 | 9 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cleveland Browns | 31 | 31 | 14 | 32 | San Diego Chargers | 13 | 26 | 10 | 20 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Williams | 103 | 59 | 6 | 925 | Pryor | 125 | 67 | 4 | 877 | |
| Inman | 82 | 51 | 4 | 715 | Coleman | 59 | 26 | 3 | 358 | |
| Benjamin | 71 | 44 | 4 | 602 | Hawkins | 46 | 27 | 3 | 294 | |
| Gates | 72 | 40 | 5 | 399 | Barnidge | 70 | 45 | 1 | 530 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Melvin Gordon (SD RB) – Out (Hip)
SD Matchup Rating: 7.5
CLE Matchup Rating: 3.0
San Diego Chargers
Quarterback: The Browns have simply no talent on the defensive side of the football. They rank near the bottom of the league in almost every defensive category, so the Chargers shouldn’t have a problem moving the ball, even on the road. The Chargers have an implied team total of almost 25 points, and Phillip Rivers should be a solid quarterback option. He has gotten a bit of a price bump in DFS, so he’s not a must play, but he’s certainly a strong option. The Browns have allowed a league high 31 touchdown passes this year, and their respectable yardage numbers are simply a function of a number of teams getting a huge lead on them and then calling off the dogs. I don’t think the Chargers will get to that point, though, so the limited volume worry is only slight. It’s not like the Chargers are a world class team.
Running Backs: Kenneth Farrow got every chance to impress in a favorable matchup while getting a spot start last week, and he was pretty much awful in that chance. He played on 75% of the snaps, and I would expect a similar workload this week if Melvin Gordon remains sidelined. The “fade Farrow” call was probably one of the best calls in the Grind Down last week, and I am still undecided on what to do this week. On one hand, Farrow isn’t a great talent. On the other hand, neither is anyone on the Browns defense. Farrow got a slight price boost for this week, but the matchup couldn’t be better. Given that he struggled in a favorable matchup last week, I will likely limit by exposure once again. I am more nervous about it than I was last week, though, especially because his snap count was higher than I expected in Week 15. Be careful here. The Browns may be awful, but that might not be enough to thrust Farrow into fantasy relevance.
Pass Catchers: San Diego has a plethora of options in the passing game that include a pair of tight ends and three wide receivers. Dontrelle Inman has been by far the most consistent option of late, and he has led the San Diego wide receivers in receiving yardage for each of the past four weeks. He is a safe cash game option against the feeble Browns. Travis Benjamin is a big play threat, but his snaps were limited once again last week, and he has been struggling through injury along with Tyrell Williams. The other viable option here is Antonio Gates. He is still chasing that tight end touchdown record, and this would be the game where you can see Rivers forcing one to him.
The Takeaway: Nobody is out of play for the Chargers here, but it is often difficult to peg the right pieces for this team. In terms of safety, guys like Rivers and Inman feel very safe in a great matchup. Antonio Gates is also a fine mid-range play at tight end as he attempts to chase the record books. Assuming Melvin Gordon sits again, Kenneth Farrow enters the value discussion at running back, but I have my reservations on him once again this week.
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: It is going to be difficult for the Browns to fend off the 0-16 season, but if they are going to win a game, this is probably the one. I guess they could win next week if the Steelers clinch the AFC North this week and rest players. Why are you reading this section? You’re not going to take Robert Griffin, right? Hue Jackson said he “wants to see Cody (Kessler)” again at some point, so there could be a hook for Griffin if he struggles in this one. Don’t do it.
Running Backs: Over the last seven games for the Browns, Duke Johnson has zero games of 50+ yards. In that same time frame, Isaiah Crowell has one game of 50+ yards. With Robert Griffin around at quarterback to siphon off some yards and a generally negative game flow in most Cleveland games, there’s no reason to look here. Crowell might draw some interest a value price of $4,100 on DraftKings, but I’m not going there.
Pass Catchers: The aforementioned Duke Johnson did have 62 receiving yards last week, but otherwise this unit is just a mess with Griffin at quarterback. No other pass catcher has had more than 35 receiving yards in the two games that Griffin has started since returning. Again, don’t do it.
The Takeaway: You will find a grand total of zero Cleveland players on any of my rosters this weekend. The San Diego defense might even be in play here, even though they aren’t the most talented unit in the league.
Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears
Editor’s Note: Per CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora, Jordan Reed has been ruled OUT for Week 16.
| Washington Redskins | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 45.5 | 24.25 | 3 | 45.5 | 21.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.6 | 10 | 2 | 18 | Offense | 17.7 | 29 | 16 | 23 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.9 | 16 | 6 | 23 | Opp. Defense | 24.5 | 24 | 28 | 22 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Chicago Bears | 8 | 2 | 27 | 8 | Washington Redskins | 25 | 29 | 11 | 27 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jackson | 88 | 49 | 4 | 857 | Jeffery | 81 | 46 | 2 | 719 | |
| Garcon | 102 | 71 | 3 | 851 | Meredith | 79 | 53 | 3 | 692 | |
| Crowder | 94 | 64 | 7 | 828 | Thompson | 30 | 19 | 1 | 215 | |
| Reed | 83 | 61 | 5 | 646 | Paulsen | 10 | 3 | 0 | 15 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jordan Reed (WAS TE) – Questionable (Shoulder)
WAS Matchup Rating: 6.5
CHI Matchup Rating: 5.0
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: Kirk Cousins was a massive disappointment in a favorable spot on Monday against the Panthers, and it will be interesting to see what his ownership looks like on a full Sunday slate. The Bears have been solid against the pass this season, and there’s nothing about Cousins that makes me feel like I have to play him here. With plenty of expensive quarterbacks on the board and some interesting other cheap options, Cousins just kind of falls into a range that makes me ignore him in DFS. That’s not a strong take for or against him, but he doesn’t seem to fit the ideal roster build in Week 16.
Running Backs: The Redskins fell way behind last week against Carolina, and that forced them to quickly abandon the run game. That type of game flow is a death knell for Robert Kelley, who logged just eight rushing yards on nine carries in the game (though he did score a touchdown). Chris Thompson out-snapped Kelley 35 to 30, but that was entirely attributable to game flow. The game script sets up better in this one against a Bears team that has just three wins on the year. Expect better things from Kelley this week, as the Bears don’t have a good rush defense and are fresh off allowing a huge day to Ty Montgomery and Christine Michael. Kelley is a better play on FanDuel, where his relative price point is better and his lack of pass catching ability doesn’t hurt him as much.
Editor’s Note: Per CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora, Jordan Reed has been ruled OUT for Week 16.
Pass Catchers: Even though the Bears have been reasonably good against the pass this year, they have struggled against #1 receivers and tight ends. Washington doesn’t really have a go-to #1 receiver, so I’m not sure we can take much away from that. However, we can possibly use the tight end data to our advantage. Jordan Reed says he is feeling better, and he should be in line for more snaps after playing 10 and 19 over the last two weeks. The 19 snaps last week was limited because he got ejected in the third quarter. He may have gotten up to 30 or so had he not gotten tossed. I wish he was priced at more of a discount on the two major sites, though, and the reports from the coaching staff haven’t been great. If Reed plays, he is a GPP-only option, especially if the team says he is “full go” in a must win game. If Reed happens to sit out, Vernon Davis would become a great value play. The wide receivers aren’t great options here, but DeSean Jackson is always a decent GPP option.
SATURDAY UPDATE – It doesn’t sound good as far as Reed playing, so upgrade Vernon Davis here.
The Takeaway: Washington tends to abandon the run often, but this should be a game where they stick with it. Robert Kelley is a decent value option, especially on FanDuel, thanks to his limited pass catching skills. The passing game worries me a bit, as the Bears aren’t a slouch at the back end of their defense. It’s tough to endorse Kirk Cousins or their unpredictable wide receivers in anything other than a GPP. Jordan Reed would be a play at tight end, but the injury reports are still very sketchy on his availability in this one. Check back later in the week for an update.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: I must admit that Matt Barkley has been somewhat of a pleasant surprise from a fantasy perspective. In just four starts, he has thrown for 315+ yards and multiple touchdowns twice. There has been a key denominator in both of those games, though, and that was that the Bears fell way behind in the first half of those games. In the games that have stayed close throughout, the Bears have managed Barkley’s passing volume. He has also shown a willingness to push the ball down the field, but he did have four turnovers against the Packers. If you are looking for a dirt cheap, risk/reward option, I actually like Barkley here against a poor Washington defense. He’s priced at the bare minimum QB cost on DK ($5,000, and he only costs $6,300 on FD. This is definitely preferred for GPPs over cash games, and keep in mind that there is a lot of risk here, especially if the Bears happen to get a lead.
Running Backs: Jordan Howard gets virtually no attention nationally because he plays on an awful team, but he has been very good for the Bears this year, and his snap count has been steadily rising. He ran for 90 yards and a score on 17 carries against Green Bay, and he added a bonus with four pass catches (an area where he normally struggles). He will get ignored, as usual, but the Bears will look to establish him in this game. Also, the Redskins are on a very short week. Don’t forget that they played on Monday night, and this is a Saturday game thanks to the Christmas schedule. Howard is a very strong tournament play in the mid range of running backs, as he will likely be around 5% owned.
Pass Catchers: If you want to roster Matt Barkley in a GPP, the problem you may run into is who to pair him with, if anyone. Marquess Wilson and Eddie Royal are both out for the year, so we do have some clarity here. Josh Bellamy got the short end of the stick with Alshon Jeffery returning last week. Jeffery played on 92% of the offensive snaps, while Cameron Meredith was in for 86% and Deonte Thompson saw 71%. Thompson and Meredith both broke 100 yards, while Jeffery got to 89 and scored a touchdown. I would side with Jeffery if you can afford him, otherwise Thompson is an intriguing value after he caught eight of ten targets against Green Bay.
The Takeaway: I have no idea why, but it feels like I am overly high on the Bears here. They do have their highest team total of the last few weeks at 21.50 implied points, and most of their pieces come cheap. I wouldn’t go overboard with exposure, but Barkley, Howard, Jeffery, and Thompson are all on my radar. Barkley and Thompson come very cheap, Howard always gets over-looked despite the fact that he has been playing well for much of the year, and Jeffery is cheaper than usual after his suspension. This is a really interesting spot against a suspect defensive unit that is playing on a short week.
