RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down: Week 16
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get the best perks in the industry.
INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
| New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 41.5 | 22 | 2.5 | 41.5 | 19.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.4 | 24 | 19 | 30 | Offense | 22.6 | 16 | 23 | 9 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.4 | 13 | 13 | 17 | Opp. Defense | 17.9 | 3 | 24 | 6 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 12 | 13 | 28 | 2 | New York Giants | 2 | 8 | 9 | 19 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Beckham | 142 | 85 | 10 | 1,173 | Matthews | 110 | 71 | 3 | 792 | |
| Shepard | 89 | 55 | 7 | 592 | Agholor | 64 | 34 | 1 | 318 | |
| Cruz | 55 | 29 | 1 | 495 | Green-Beckham | 67 | 34 | 2 | 370 | |
| Donnell | 22 | 15 | 1 | 92 | Ertz | 88 | 63 | 2 | 644 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
NYG Matchup Rating: 6.0
PHI Matchup Rating: 5.0
New York Giants
Quarterback: Eli Manning has some strange stat lines this season. In his last seven games, he has a very healthy 17 touchdown passes. However, in those same seven games, he has topped 240 passing yards just once, and that is with a big play receiver at his disposal. Yards are obviously more predictable than touchdowns over the longer term, so there is reason to give pause to Manning here, especially on a short week with his team playing on the road. Philadelphia’s defense has been scuffling of late, but there’s no real reason to go here unless you are wrapping up a Monday/Thursday slate and didn’t play Kirk Cousins or Cam Newton on Monday. In that case, I do prefer Manning of the two quarterbacks in this game.
Running Backs: Last week’s snap count here will tell the entire story. Paul Perkins was on the field for 25 snaps. Rashad Jennings was on the field for 25 snaps. Shane Vereen was on the field for 14 snaps. This unit has been a disaster all season, as the Giants rank 30th in the league in rushing yards. I wouldn’t be able to trust any of these guys against the Browns, let alone a more competent team like the Eagles. Avoid this unit like the plague.
Pass Catchers: Big play receivers have had some success against the Eagles in recent weeks, so this could definitely be a game where we see Odell Beckham, Jr. break a big play or two. He hasn’t had much in terms of volume in recent weeks, but he has been on the receiving side of several of Manning’s touchdown passes. He caught just four balls for 46 yards in the first meeting between these two teams, but two of them were for touchdowns. Beckham doesn’t make much sense as a cash game staple, and he might be over-owned for GPPs that lock on Thursday. I still don’t mind him in that setting. Manning’s mediocre yardage totals have hurt the rest of the receivers, so I’m not really interested in anyone else.
The Takeaway: This game has a low Vegas total, so don’t feel the need to get many pieces of this game if you are playing Thursday locks. The only real interesting option for the Giants is Odell Beckham, Jr., as he could make some big plays against a suddenly leaky Philadelphia secondary. Manning and the running game are less than desirable spots to go these days.
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: The Eagles continue to spiral the wrong way, as they have now lost five in a row and seven of eight. They almost pulled out an upset win last week over the Ravens, but it wasn’t due to Carson Wentz. He threw for 170 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception and now has just 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on the year. He is not a fantasy option, especially against a very good Giants secondary.
Running Backs: Ryan Mathews was basically the last man left standing in the Philadelphia backfield last week, and he put up solid numbers against a very good Baltimore rush defense. A problem is on the horizon, though, as Darren Sproles is fully expected to return for this game. Byron Marshall was also used for nine carries against the Ravens. We all know that we can’t trust Doug Pederson in terms of running back usage, so I am off this unit entirely against the Giants’ rush defense which quietly ranks 5th in the league in DVOA.
Pass Catchers: The Giants have a very strong pass defense, and they have actually been the best team in the league at containing opposing #1 wide receivers. That takes Jordan Matthews completely off the radar. The one guy who is interesting is Zach Ertz, who has been blossoming in the second half of the season. He has 25 catches for 271 yards over the last three games, and the Giants rank just 26th against tight ends this season. Fire up Ertz and avoid everyone else in this unit.
The Takeaway: The only guy I am even remotely interested in is Zach Ertz. The Giants have a very strong defense at every level, and this is not the spot for the Philadelphia offense to kick things into high gear. The return of Darren Sproles makes Ryan Mathews much more risky this week. The Giants defense, despite playing on the road, is a strong option as well.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
| Miami Dolphins | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 42 | 19 | -4 | 42 | 23 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.5 | 17 | 27 | 16 | Offense | 25.6 | 9 | 31 | 1 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.4 | 14 | 8 | 27 | Opp. Defense | 22.4 | 14 | 11 | 30 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Buffalo Bills | 11 | 24 | 8 | 12 | Miami Dolphins | 28 | 14 | 20 | 21 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Landry | 113 | 82 | 3 | 1,033 | Watkins | 33 | 17 | 1 | 245 | |
| Parker | 74 | 47 | 3 | 614 | Woods | 65 | 44 | 1 | 527 | |
| Stills | 66 | 35 | 7 | 650 | Goodwin | 58 | 27 | 3 | 407 | |
| Sims | 31 | 24 | 4 | 246 | Clay | 70 | 46 | 2 | 447 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Sammy Watkins (BUF WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Foot)
MIA Matchup Rating: 4.5
BUF Matchup Rating: 6.0
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: Matt Moore completed just 12 passes last week, but those managed to go for 236 yards and four touchdowns. That 20 yards per completion and one touchdown for every three throws is not going to be sustainable (obviously). Don’t chase the fool’s gold, and leave Moore on the table for somebody else to make the mistake of taking.
Running Backs: The Dolphins relied on their running game extensively last week after building a huge lead against the Jets, but as a team they rushed for just 67 yards on 27 carries (2.5 YPC). Since his three breakout games early in the year, Jay Ajayi has been held under 80 yards in six straight, and he has just one lonely touchdown in that span. This is a spot where you can attack the Bills, as they rank 31st in DVOA against the run, but it’s really hard to trust Ajayi right now. His price tag remains a little too steep for me, but you can consider him as a low-owned GPP guy.
Pass Catchers: Matt Moore is going to hamper the production of everyone in this unit. The Dolphins have a meager team total of 19 points this week, and I expect a run-heavy approach against the Bills. Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills each broke off long touchdowns last week, but we can’t count on that every week. The volume simply isn’t going to be enough to make me feel comfortable with anyone in this group.
The Takeaway: My exposure to this team will be very limited in Week 16. You can make a GPP case for Jay Ajayi, but that’s about all I can get behind with the Dolphins having a very low team total here.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: Tyrod Taylor was very popular last week as his cheap price tag (especially on DK) made him an attractive salary saving option with a matchup against the Browns. He remains dirt cheap on DK at $5,400, where you can probably make a similar case for him again this week. The Dolphins are a middle of the pack defense, so I don’t have a strong take either way. Because the Bills run the ball so much, Taylor’s upside is somewhat capped, even though he is a good runner himself. I would probably limit this to a cash game play on DK. I can’t endorse him at $7,500 on FD.
Running Backs: Nobody really knows who the goal line back is for the Bills. They claimed it was Mike Gillislee after he scored twice a few weeks ago, but both Gillislee and LeSean McCoy have gotten goal line looks since then. Gillislee got the first rushing touchdown last week, but McCoy got the last two. McCoy also had a great game, rushing for 153 yards and 8.1 yards per carry against the feeble Browns. He has logged more than 100 scrimmage yards in four straight games, but the goal line work is a worry. Since this matchup isn’t as good as last week’s, I will likely pass on McCoy at his premium prices. I prefer the other high-end options.
FRIDAY UPDATE – A lot of others are much higher on McCoy than me, so take my thoughts with a word of caution. I will still be fading him in GPPs as a game theory play.
Pass Catchers: Buffalo does not throw the ball with much regularity, so wide receiver production is always hit or miss. Charles Clay randomly went off for 72 yards and a score last week, but that was only his second touchdown of the year. Sammy Watkins went missing in action even against the Browns. Robert Woods still isn’t 100% healthy. This is a mess. Watkins is always a boom-or-bust GPP option, so that’s about all I can offer here.
The Takeaway: This game was one of the lowest Vegas totals of the week at 41 1/2 points, so it’s not surprising that there aren’t a lot of good plays here. You can consider Tyrod Taylor on DK thanks to his massively discounted price. You can consider LeSean McCoy, but the goal line work is a worry, and he won’t come cheap. Sammy Watkins is a boom-or-bust GPP guy. These are all mild endorsements, at best.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
| Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 52 | 27.25 | 2.5 | 52 | 24.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 33.5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | Offense | 24.1 | 14 | 17 | 10 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.1 | 25 | 32 | 3 | Opp. Defense | 25.6 | 26 | 29 | 15 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina Panthers | 19 | 9 | 26 | 28 | Atlanta Falcons | 32 | 28 | 23 | 29 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jones | 113 | 72 | 5 | 1,253 | Benjamin | 103 | 53 | 5 | 785 | |
| Sanu | 73 | 52 | 3 | 565 | Ginn | 79 | 47 | 4 | 654 | |
| Gabriel | 47 | 33 | 6 | 573 | Funchess | 53 | 22 | 4 | 362 | |
| Hooper | 27 | 19 | 3 | 271 | Olsen | 113 | 71 | 3 | 992 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
ATL Matchup Rating: 7.5
CAR Matchup Rating: 6.5
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: Matt Ryan has been solid all year long; his numbers are down a bit in recent weeks, but that is primarily because Atlanta has waxed back-to-back opponents in the Rams and 49ers. That shouldn’t be an issue this week, as this is a road game against a Carolina team that should at least be able to keep the game competitive. Ryan is having a fine season with a 32/7 TD/INT ratio and 4,336 passing yards. It’s his best NFL season yet, and a matchup against a leaky Carolina secondary shouldn’t be one that scares you away. He is a top three quarterback option this week, and he threw for 503 yards and four scores in their previous meeting against this team.
Running Backs: The Falcons salted away last week’s game early, so we had yet another game where Terron Ward got carries in the fourth quarter. He now has 16 fourth quarter carries and zero first through third quarter carries in the last two games. Devonta Freeman clearly outplayed Tevin Coleman last week, rushing for 139 yards and three scores while Coleman ran for just 58 yards. However, Coleman actually played on 31 snaps compared to 30 for Freeman. This is still a time share, and we are only one week removed from Coleman scoring twice. Carolina ranks in the top ten in DVOA against the run, so I would rather look to the passing game here.
Pass Catchers: It sounds like Julio Jones is going to return this week, so that’s great news for fantasy owners that have him and are in the finals of their season-long leagues. It’s also good for DFS players, who can target Jones with confidence against Carolina’s weak secondary. In case you don’t remember, Jones only torched these guys for 12 catches and 300 yards back in Week 4. The Falcons were able to rest him against bad teams the last two weeks, and he should be refreshed and ready to go. Throw in the current discount you can get him at in DFS, and Jones might be your top receiving option on the board this week. His return drops Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel from fantasy relevance. Don’t fall for the Gabriel touchdown stretch, as he only played on 35% of the offensive snaps last week — and that was with Jones out.
FRIDAY UPDATE – Julio Jones is ready to go for this game and is not even listed on the final injury report.
The Takeaway: Matt Ryan to Julio Jones will be a very popular tournament stack this week. It makes sense given Carolina’s struggles in the secondary and their performance the first time these teams met. Of course, you can fade them in GPPs, but you better get one (or both) of them in some of your cash game lineups. I am off the running game this week, as that is where Carolina is stronger defensively, and we still have a time share with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: It may be too little too late, but the Panthers are finally playing some good football again. Cam Newton topped 300 passing yards for the first time since Week 6 on Monday against the Redskins, but his shoulder injury has basically prevented him from running the ball. He had three carries for a total of zero yards in that game, and his upside really is limited when he isn’t generating yards or touchdowns with his legs. His price tag is still very reasonable, but he’s not near the top of my QB rankings this week despite a favorable matchup. There’s too much risk, especially since there are several other quarterbacks to like this week.
Running Backs: Since Cam Newton isn’t running the ball much, a guy like Jonathan Stewart gets a nice boost in value. Stewart saw a massive 25 carries against Washington, and he turned those into a 132 yard night. His value is going to be hit or miss, but he’s not overly expensive, and this is a great matchup against a Falcons team that ranks 28th in DVOA against the run. Stewart is never a sexy play, but he is in the conversation with the other mid-range running back options in Week 16.
Pass Catchers: Ted Ginn is a hit-or-miss option that is dependent on the big play, but he has been the only bright spot in the Carolina wide receiver corps for weeks now. Kelvin Benjamin has not caught more than two passes in any of the last four games, and he has 49 total receiving yards in the last three. That’s some ugly stuff. Ginn is on the GPP radar, though I rarely play him. Greg Olsen woke up on Monday with a team-leading six catches for 85 yards. He would be my preferred play against a Falcons team that ranks 20th in DVOA against the tight end position.
The Takeaway: This game could very well turn into a shootout, but the Panthers are a tough team to peg with Cam Newton not running the football as much these days. This makes Jonathan Stewart more interesting, while Greg Olsen is the best option in the receiving corps. Kelvin Benjamin has disappeared, and Ted Ginn is a GPP-only play.
New York Jets at New England Patriots
| New York Jets | New England Patriots | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5 | 44 | 13.75 | -16.5 | 44 | 30.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.3 | 30 | 25 | 12 | Offense | 26.1 | 6 | 4 | 7 | |
| Opp. Defense | 16.6 | 1 | 20 | 4 | Opp. Defense | 25.6 | 26 | 19 | 13 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New England Patriots | 16 | 10 | 7 | 15 | New York Jets | 26 | 19 | 20 | 23 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Marshall | 125 | 58 | 3 | 759 | Edelman | 139 | 85 | 2 | 866 | |
| Enunwa | 92 | 52 | 4 | 746 | Hogan | 49 | 33 | 4 | 631 | |
| Anderson | 68 | 38 | 2 | 544 | Amendola | 29 | 23 | 4 | 245 | |
| Bostick | 9 | 7 | 0 | 56 | Bennett | 66 | 50 | 5 | 649 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Martellus Bennett (NE TE) – Questionable but expected to play (Ankle) / Tom Brady (NE QB) – Questionable but expected to play (Thigh)
NYJ Matchup Rating: 3.5
NE Matchup Rating: 7.5
New York Jets
Quarterback: Bryce Petty says he is “all systems go” for this game after almost getting murdered on the field last week against the Dolphins. The Jets’ offensive line has been a disaster of late, and that is not good when you have a young, inexperienced quarterback at the helm. Don’t bother with Petty in DFS, even though the Patriots are more vulnerable via the pass. They shut down Trevor Siemian last week and could easily do the same to Petty.
Running Backs: Matt Forte was active for last week’s game against the Dolphins, but he was only used in a limited capacity. It sounds like he might sit out this game entirely thanks to his nerve issue. That will open the door for Bilal Powell to play on a good chunk of the snaps once again. Powell is not the best running back in the league, but he adds value with his ability as a pass catcher. He has also been solid in the run game of late; he ran for 84 yards on 16 carries last week while also catching 11 passes for 78 yards. Those are fine totals, but that is probably his ceiling. This is a tougher matchup against New England, and Powell has seen his price jump to $6,500 on FD and $6,000 on DK. The price tag is better on FD, but the pass catching ability makes him more valuable on DK. I can see the merit in taking him if Forte is ruled out, but his price point makes him more of a secondary option.
Pass Catchers: It is very clear that Bryce Petty likes throwing the ball to Robby Anderson. The unheralded rookie caught four passes for 80 yards and a touchdown last week, and he has been the strongest performing wide receiver on this team by a large margin over the past month. With Quincy Enunwa and Brandon Marshall pretty banged up these days, Anderson is the only guy on my radar here. He is still relatively affordable and is a fine low-to-mid range WR play on a week that doesn’t have a ton of great value options at the outset.
The Takeaway: Don’t go too crazy with Jets exposure, as they have by far the lowest team total of the week at just 13.5 implied points. You can consider Bilal Powell for his volume if Matt Forte is out, and you can take a look at Robby Anderson for value at wide receiver, but that’s all I am interested in. The New England defense will likely be a popular play in Week 16, though they have disappointed in several good spots already this year.
New England Patriots
Quarterback: Tom Brady was kept in check by Denver’s elite pass defense last week, but his matchup goes from extremely difficult on the road to extremely friendly at home. The Jets gave up chunks of huge pass plays when facing Matt Moore last week, so imagine how much trouble they will have with Brady and company. The Jets rank dead last in the league in DVOA against the pass. Brady is definitely the top overall quarterback play this week.
Running Backs: It’s tough to succeed with a straight ahead rushing approach against the Jets, so this doesn’t feel like a LeGarrette Blount week. He received just 11 carries in the first game between these two teams, caught zero passes, and didn’t find the end zone. At his currently elevated price points, Blount is an easy pass. The two passing game backs are splitting time, so it’s tough to trust them, too. This is a week to focus on Brady and the passing game.
Pass Catchers: New England is projected to score a whopping 30 points in this game, and that is the highest team total I have seen in quite some time. Given the Jets’ struggles in the secondary, there should be plenty of production to go around in this unit. Julian Edelman continues to dominate targets, and he saw 12 of them last week. He has seen double figure targets in five straight weeks and is the safest play of the bunch. Malcolm Mitchell played on 67 offensive snaps last week (89.3%) and seems to have surpassed Chris Hogan as the primary option outside of Edelman. The Jets shut down Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett in the last meeting, and they rank in the middle of the pack against tight ends. With Gronkowski out and Bennett operating at less than full strength, I will avoid the tight ends.
The Takeaway: New England should take a pass-heavy approach against the Jets, and Tom Brady attempted 50 passes in their last meeting. He is your top quarterback this week, while Edelman and Mitchell are fine targets at receiver. I will avoid LeGarrette Blount and company in this one, as the Jets are much stronger against the run.