NFL Grind Down: Week 17 - Page Three
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
| Oakland Raiders | Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||||
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| Saturday – 1 p.m. | Arrowhead Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 43.5 | 18.25 | -7 | 43.5 | 25.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.8 | 16 | 15 | 25 | Offense | 25.5 | 9 | 28 | 7 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.0 | 2 | 14 | 12 | Opp. Defense | 25.1 | 21 | 26 | 9 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11 | 4 | 28 | 1 | Oakland Raiders | 16 | 22 | 15 | 30 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cooper | 125 | 70 | 6 | 1047 | Maclin | 120 | 84 | 7 | 1027 | |
| Crabtree | 139 | 82 | 8 | 888 | Wilson | 51 | 32 | 2 | 453 | |
| Roberts | 52 | 29 | 5 | 460 | Thomas | 24 | 17 | 2 | 174 | |
| Smith | 13 | 12 | 1 | 70 | Kelce | 101 | 71 | 5 | 865 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
OAK Matchup Rating: 3.0
KC Matchup Rating: 5.0
Oakland Raiders
Quarterback: It’s not difficult to argue that the Chiefs are playing the best football in the NFL as of late, with ten straight victories and a rapidly improving defense. The Raiders, on the other hand, are still recovering from a three-game losing streak in the middle of the season, and have traded wins and losses ever since. Oakland has talent on offense, and some pieces on defense, but hasn’t yet put it all together. That’s why it’s hard to trust Derek Carr (FD $7,100, DK $5,300) and company against a tough opponent just yet. Kansas City ranks second in weighted DVOA, which weighs recent results more heavily, and has recovered from early season hiccups to rank fourth in DVOA against the pass, and third in numberFire’s pass metrics.
Running Game: The Chiefs are pretty good against the run, as well, ranking ninth in numberFire’s data, and allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the RB position. Isaiah Crowell had a strong performance against KC last week, and Latavius Murray (FD $6,100, DK $5,200) did alright in his last game against the Chiefs. But a trip to Arrowhead in winter is never easy, and to expect a solid performance from Murray would be foolish. His ceiling is still there, but his floor is dangerous, and he’s a GPP play at best.
Pass Catchers: The Chiefs don’t shadow receivers on defense, and the Raiders have played their receivers on one side or another on a fairly regular basis, so we can start to figure out matchups by using Pro Football Focus’ charting data. Amari Cooper is likely to see more of Sean Smith, as Cooper plays over half of his snaps on Smith’s side of the field. That leaves Michael Crabtree up against Marcus Peters. Smith has the slightly better grade of the two corners, and Crabtree has the better grade of the Oakland wideouts, so if you think the Raiders pull a surprise result, or get some garbage time production, Crabtree seems to be the best bet. Otherwise, I’m not going to recommend investing in any Oakland pass catchers, and especially not any tight ends, as the Chiefs rank first in DVOA against the position.
The Takeaway: Latavius Murray and Michael Crabtree are the top plays on a very risky offense. Neither should be used outside of a speculative tournament lineup.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: Alex Smith (FD $7,000, DK $5,100) hasn’t had to do a whole lot over the past few weeks, as he’s thrown between 22-25 passes in each of his last four games, but he has been efficient over that timeframe. Still, his ceiling is limited by his lack of a need to do throw often to keep his team competitive, and his sub-200-yard performances over the past four games speak to that issue. Smith would be a great option in a league format that considered QB rating as a statistic, but otherwise, he’s a tournament play at best, even against a weak Oakland pass defense (ninth in fantasy points allowed to QBs, 20th in numberFire’s NEP pass defense rankings).
Running Game: The Raiders are slightly more favorable than the average matchup for running backs, allowing the 12th most points to the position and ranking 19th in numberFire’s rankings. The Kansas City backs didn’t do much the last time these teams met, but that was Charcandrick West (FD $6,800, DK $5,700) in his first game back from an injury, and he has looked better in the three games since. Still, his upside seems to be quite limited, and the presence of Spencer Ware (FD $5,300, DK $3,600) means potential vultured touchdowns, so cautiously use West in a GPP or two.
Pass Catchers: Oakland started off the season with a terrible defensive record against tight ends, but that has tightened up over time, and Travis Kelce (FD $6,200, DK $4,700) didn’t have an impressive game against the a few weeks ago. Jeremy Maclin (FD $7,100, DK $6,400) is the Kansas City pass catcher seeing the best targets from Alex Smith, and he’s scored five times in his last five games. Maclin has big-play upside and faces a defense he scored against twice in their previous meeting. He’s a secondary cash game option and a solid tournament play, and a must-play if you’re starting Smith, as he’s the only player to stack with the Kansas City QB.
The Takeaway: Alex Smith and Jeremy Maclin are the passing game stack to target, while Charcandrick West is a viable tournament play at RB. Otherwise, the Chiefs will rely on their defense in this one, and you should too, as they’re a strong play with turnovers and sacks expected.
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
| Washington Redskins | Dallas Cowboys | |||||||||
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| Saturday – 1 p.m. | AT&T Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 39.5 | 17.75 | -4 | 39.5 | 21.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.6 | 14 | 12 | 22 | Offense | 16.8 | 31 | 30 | 9 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.7 | 15 | 5 | 22 | Opp. Defense | 23.7 | 17 | 22 | 26 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6 | 28 | 5 | 3 | Washington Redskins | 19 | 19 | 22 | 11 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jackson | 49 | 30 | 4 | 528 | Bryant | 72 | 31 | 3 | 401 | |
| Garcon | 107 | 69 | 5 | 728 | Williams | 84 | 44 | 3 | 667 | |
| Crowder | 71 | 54 | 1 | 497 | Beasley | 68 | 47 | 3 | 483 | |
| Reed | 110 | 83 | 11 | 907 | Witten | 96 | 71 | 2 | 654 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Matt Jones (WAS, Doubtful), DeSean Jackson (WAS, Questionable)
WAS Matchup Rating: 3.0
DAL Matchup Rating: 3.0
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: Kirk Cousins (FD $7,700, DK $5,400) and the Washington offense should not be trusted for fantasy purposes. The team has locked up its playoff position, and Jay Gruden has admitted that he’s not sure how long his starters will play. Dallas plays slow and has a decent pass defense, anyway, so this wouldn’t have been a good spot for Cousins, even if he were slated to play a full game.
Running Game: Chris Thompson (FD $4,800, DK $3,000) and Alfred Morris (FD $5,500, DK $3,600) may be the only healthy backs on the roster for Washington this weekend, as Matt Jones is unlikely to be used as he recovers from a minor hip injury, and Pierre Thomas has been limited in practice with an injury of his own. If Thomas plays, it’s impossible to know how the touches will shake out, but if it’s just Morris and Thompson, there is a case to be made for using Thompson on PPR sites and Morris on non-PPR sites. Dallas has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing backs, and rank in the bottom ten in DVOA against the run and against RBs in the pass game. Still, it’s a big risk to use players who play for a team with little motivation to win, and the offense may not get off the ground if Cousins and some of the key pass catchers sit for most of the game.
Pass Catchers: DeSean Jackson (FD $6,900, DK $4,700) and Jordan Reed (FD $7,400, DK $6,500) are unlikely to play the entire game, and if they do, they’ll play some of it without Kirk Cousins. Both have injury histories and are too valuable to risk in this one, so they’re not viable for DFS purposes. Jamison Crowder (FD $4,700, DK $3,500) would be the Washington wideout I’d trust most, but even then, he may be considered too valuable to use heavily.
The Takeaway: It’s pretty easy to just avoid the Washington offense altogether, but I offer Crowder and Morris/Thompson as options in case you’re feeling very speculative.
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: The Cowboys have not eclipsed 20 points since November 22nd, and have finished with 300+ passing yards as a team since Week 1. Kellen Moore (FD $6,000, DK $5,000) has done nothing to earn the trust of DFS players, and will be without Dez Bryant this weekend. It’s best to just avoid this game, as it will be two teams with limited talent going through the motions to finish the regular season.
Running Game: Washington ranks 14th in numberFire’s rankings against the run and 15th in fantasy points allowed. Darren McFadden (FD $7,200, DK $4,900) has been extremely efficient in recent weeks, and if he gets a healthy amount of carries in this game, he could have another 100-yard effort. He’ll go over the 1000-yard mark for the season with just three rushing yards, but once that milestone is reached, McFadden and the ‘Boys don’t have much to play for. Still, if they want a respectable showing on offense, the veteran back will have to be featured. He’s a GPP option in a game filled with risky, or outright terrible, fantasy plays.
Pass Catchers: Without Dez Bryant, the Cowboys are without a talent at wideout who can overcome Moore’s inefficient passing. This game has a low total for a reason. It’s not going to be an attractive game of football.
The Takeaway: Darren McFadden is the strongest play in this entire game, and even then, his team has nothing to play for, and he’ll likely sit at the first sign of injury or fatigue.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
| Philadelphia Eagles | New York Giants | |||||||||
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| Saturday – 1 p.m. | MetLife Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 51.5 | 24 | -3.5 | 51.5 | 27.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.8 | 16 | 11 | 15 | Offense | 26.0 | 6 | 7 | 26 | |
| Opp. Defense | 27.1 | 30 | 32 | 25 | Opp. Defense | 26.7 | 28 | 27 | 29 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Giants | 30 | 27 | 21 | 31 | Philadelphia Eagles | 31 | 25 | 31 | 6 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 119 | 78 | 6 | 943 | Beckham | 151 | 91 | 13 | 1399 | |
| Cooper | 40 | 21 | 2 | 327 | Randle | 83 | 53 | 7 | 718 | |
| Agholor | 41 | 21 | 1 | 260 | Harris | 57 | 36 | 4 | 408 | |
| Celek | 33 | 25 | 3 | 360 | Tye | 54 | 37 | 2 | 397 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Dwayne Harris (NYG, Questionable)
PHI Matchup Rating: 7.5
NYG Matchup Rating: 8.0
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: This game has an incredibly high total, and while the Eagles have fired their head coach, they’re unlikely to change what they do over the course of a short week and come out with a different tactic. They’ll still play fast and throw the ball around while spreading carries across all of their backs. Sam Bradford (FD $6,700, DK $5,300) hasn’t shown a very high ceiling all season, but does have over 350 yards passing in each of his last two starts, both of which came against tougher defensive opponents than the Giants, who rank 27th in DVOA against the pass and third in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. If this game is going to feature 50+ points, Bradford will need to throw for 300+ yards and a couple of scores, and I expect him to do just that. He’s not the best QB in this game, but he is one of the better QBs on the weekend at his salary.
Running Game: The Eagles have moved DeMarco Murray (FD $5,900, DK $4,000) into a timeshare role where he splits work with Ryan Mathews (FD $5,600, DK $3,600) and Darren Sproles (FD $5,200, DK $4,100). Murray played well against the Giants the last time these teams met, and if he’s given 20+ carries again, he may be able to do some work against the subpar New York defense (eighth in points allowed to RBs). But with the work likely to be split three ways, none of these players hold a lot of appeal.
Pass Catchers: Jordan Matthews (FD $6,600, DK $4,700) has seen his role and fantasy production jump over the past two weeks, which unsurprisingly has coincided with an improvement in stats for Bradford. The duo that was so popular to start the season will now end the season in the minds of DFS players, as the Giants are weakest at covering slot receivers, and better against outside wideouts thanks to their very good boundary cornerbacks. Matthews is the best player to match up with Bradford in a stack. Zach Ertz (FD $5,700, DK $3,600) is going to be very popular, as well, as his rise in volume in recent weeks will now culminate with a matchup against a defense that has allowed nearly 14 FanDuel points per game to opposing tight ends. He’s going to be chalky, but in cash games, you’ll struggle to find a better combination of price, volume and matchup, especially on DraftKings and other PPR sites.
The Takeaway: Sam Bradford and his two top pass catchers (Matthews and Ertz) are solid plays, with Ertz viable in PPR cash games, while the running back situation lacks clarity and should be avoided for the most part.
New York Giants
Quarterback: Eli Manning (FD $7,500, DK $5,600) is arguably the best quarterback play of the weekend, price considered, especially on DraftKings. He is coming off of back-to-back four-touchdown outings with his star receiver in the lineup, and now after a week against a tough defense without his best player available, he’ll get a chance at redemption to end the season on a high note against a bad, rival defense. Manning had a letdown game the last time these teams played in Philly, but at home against a struggling Eagle defense, I think Manning is poised to light it up. Since Manning’s one-touchdown effort, the Eagles have allowed three or more passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks five times in nine games, and that list includes Jameis Winston, Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins. It doesn’t take a superstar to carve up the defense, and Manning is certainly capable of four or five touchdowns and over 300 passing yards. He’s a popular but strong tournament play, and viable in cash games.
Running Game: If you don’t roster anyone from the passing game of the Giants, do yourself a favor and roster Rashad Jennings (FD $5,800, DK $3,700) instead. After weeks of the New York offense spreading the ball around to four different backs, the coaching staff has finally focused on getting the ball into the hands of the best back on the roster, as average as he may be, and the volume has resulted in strong fantasy outings. Jennings had 107 yards and a score in Week 15, and 136 total yards last week. The Eagles rank 26th in DVOA against the run, and were torched by David Johnson just two weeks ago. Jennings is incredibly cheap and should get 20+ touches against a bad run defense. He’s a very strong play in tournaments and viable in cash games in Week 17.
Pass Catchers: Odell Beckham Jr. (FD $8,900, DK $9,000) has a point to prove and a chip on his shoulder against a bad Eagles defense in Week 17. Philly has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts this season, and rank 23rd in DVOA against WR1s. Prior to his suspension, Beckham had scored in five straight games and had nine total touchdowns over his last seven starts. He also hauled in passes for more than 100 yards in six of his last seven starts, and that included games against respectable defenses of the Jets and Patriots. This week, against a bad Philly defense, the sky is the limit. I am excited as a fan to see what a pissed off Odell Beckham can do if he keeps a calm head on his shoulders and directs his frustration into getting open and making ridiculous catches. With Dwayne Harris hurting, Rueben Randle (FD $5,800, DK $3,600) and Will Tye (FD $5,200, DK $4,000) may see a couple of extra targets each, and while Randle is fine against such a bad defense against wideouts, Tye is tough to rely on against what has been a pretty good tight end defense (27th in fantasy points allowed).
The Takeaway: Manning, Jennings and Beckham are all top plays, while Randle is viable if you want to get the lowest ownership of any viable player in this offense.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
| Detroit Lions | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
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| Saturday – 1 p.m. | Soldier Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 45.5 | 22.75 | 0 | 45.5 | 22.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.3 | 18 | 9 | 31 | Offense | 21.0 | 22 | 24 | 12 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.9 | 20 | 4 | 27 | Opp. Defense | 25.3 | 25 | 17 | 19 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Chicago Bears | 25 | 15 | 8 | 14 | Detroit Lions | 21 | 8 | 14 | 28 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Johnson | 134 | 78 | 8 | 1077 | Jeffery | 94 | 54 | 4 | 807 | |
| Tate | 123 | 86 | 6 | 820 | Royal | 50 | 37 | 1 | 237 | |
| Moore | 43 | 29 | 4 | 337 | Mariani | 25 | 16 | 0 | 220 | |
| Ebron | 63 | 42 | 4 | 512 | Miller | 46 | 34 | 5 | 439 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Ameer Abdullah, Calvin Johnson (DET, Questionable), Eddie Royal (CHI, Doubtful), Matt Forte, Zach Miller (CHI, Questionable)
DET Matchup Rating: 5.0
CHI Matchup Rating: 5.0
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: This won’t be the first time in the career of Matthew Stafford (FD $7,700, DK $6,200) that the Detroit quarterback enters the final game with nothing to play for. Back in 2012, Stafford and the Lions played Chicago and lost to complete an eight-game losing streak to end the year. Stafford threw three touchdowns after throwing only one in his previous three games, and finished the season on a high note. Stafford carries a bit more momentum into this matchup with Chicago, who rank 20th in DVOA pass defense and seventh in points allowed to opposing passers. Stafford is moderately priced, has a mediocre matchup, and has a decent floor with very high upside (as exhibited the last time these teams met). He’s a viable GPP play for this entirely meaningless contest.
Running Game: Ameer Abdullah (FD $5,300, DK $3,700) is dealing with an injury, but should play, and if he does, he makes the running back situation for Detroit impossible to figure out. Joique Bell (FD $5,600, DK $3,600) will split carries with Abdullah, while Theo Riddick (FD $5,500, DK $4,000) will haul in a few passes. No back for Detroit has seen double-digit carries since Week 13, when Abdullah was given 13 rushing attempts. Since then, the carries have been split and unsubstantial for all three backs. Red zone carries are split at five each for Abdullah and Bell since Week 13, as well, so there are literally no fantasy advantages for either player. The Bears have a bad run defense (last in DVOA), so it makes sense to want to roster one of these players, but there’s just no appeal in their current roles in the offense. If Abdullah doesn’t play, Bell becomes much more appealing, but otherwise, take your pick in a cheap tournament but otherwise steer clear.
Pass Catchers: Calvin Johnson (FD $7,900, DK $6,900) is battling an injury but appears likely to play, which means he’ll face a defense that ranks 31st in defending WR1 according to Football Outsiders. Johnson gained 166 yards on only six catches with a touchdown the last time these teams met, while Golden Tate (FD $6,900, DK $5,700) only gained 40 yards, but did score. Johnson’s upside is higher, even with his injury concerns, but Tate is the much safer play. Both are tournament-only options, but neither should be ignored in what could be a competitive game between division rivals, even if there’s nothing else to play for. The potential for this to be Johnson’s final game in Detroit means there’s some extra motivation for the receiver to have another big game against Chicago before possibly leaving the division. Eric Ebron (FD $4,800, DK $3,000) will be able to get open against a defense ranked 29th in DVOA against tight ends, but is inconsistent and has limited volume. He’s a risky tournament option.
The Takeaway: Matthew Stafford and either of his top two wideouts are viable plays in GPP formats, and the running game would be appealing if we had any idea who would get the meaningful touches.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: Jay Cutler (FD $6,800, DK $5,100) just isn’t the same fantasy asset without Alshon Jeffery, so even against a subpar Lions defense, he’s difficult to trust. Using the Rotoviz Game Splits app, we learn that Cutler averages three fewer fantasy points per game this season without Alshon (small sample size). When we consider that Cutler’s floor is already low, it’s really tough to select him knowing that his best target won’t play. There are better options in this price range this week.
Running Game: Matt Forte (FD $7,800, DK $6,200) is dealing with an injury and was limited in the second half last week with the injury cited as the reason. The 30-year-old is likely going to be playing his last game for the Bears, so if he’s willing to play, he’ll likely play his regular role in a timeshare with likely 2016 starter Jeremy Langford (FD $4,900, DK $3,900). The Lions are a middle-of-the-road run defense, ranking 16th in DVOA and points allowed to the position, so this isn’t a great matchup, anyway. If Forte sits out, Langford is a strong option based on price and volume, but otherwise, both players cut into each other’s value and are not great DFS plays.
Pass Catchers: With Jeffery out, Eddie Royal and Zach Miller would be next in line for touches in the Chicago passing game. However, neither has practiced much (if at all) this week, and since the Bears are terrible about injury updates as it is, we can’t really rely on either one. That leaves a bunch of minimum priced options like Josh Bellamy, Khari Lee, Cameron Meredith and Marc Mariani to choose from, if the DFS site you use even lists these players as available. Miller seems more likely to play than Royal, and would be a solid pick on volume alone, but otherwise, this mess should be avoided outside of the craziest of GPP entries.
The Takeaway: This game’s fantasy value may not be revealed until inactives are announced Sunday morning. The Bears have listed quite a few players as questionable, with Forte and Miller among them. If Forte sits out, Langford is a strong play, while Miller is a valid option if he suits up. Otherwise, the Bears are probably not worth your daily fantasy salary as they coast into the offseason.